All I care is for Zoo to be renewed. The show is great and with every episode grows my excitement. This is the kind of the show I have been looking to see for a long time.

Thanks so much for your first comment!

Yeah, HV and I both strongly believe that it will be renewed.

Update:
Rookie Blue's July 2nd episode adjusted up a tenth from a 0.6 to a 0.7, making the average go up from 0.6 to 0.7. This does not affect my prediction.

My own predictions:

Certain Renewal: Under the Dome
Likely Renewal: Zoo
Toss-Up, Leaning Renewal: Mistresses, Extant
Toss-up, Leaning Cancellation: Wayward Pines, Rookie Blue
Likely Cancellation: The Whispers
Certain Cancellation: The Astronaut Wives Club

This could all very much happen. Of course, I'll need more data points for Zoo before I could make my prediction on it. I'll say:

Certain Renewal: None
Likely Renewal: Under the Dome, Zoo
Toss-Up, Leaning Renewal: Mistresses, Extant
Toss-up, Leaning Cancellation: Wayward Pines
Likely Cancellation: The Whispers, Rookie Blue
Certain Cancellation: The Astronaut Wives Club

But your predictions have way more reasoning behind them than mine haha (although they are pretty similar, since essentially we are predicting renewals and cancellations for the same shows)

Yeah I think we have the main idea synced up. I am starting to be more down on Rookie Blue though. I had forgotten that this was originally season 5B which seems like an accounting scheme to film final season without increasing the costs for the extra season. But that would imply start predicting renewal or cancellation in Canada and that's something I really don't even attempt at doing. We'll see. It's also important to bear in mind that ABC is probably going to have some returnees next summer like Wipeout and NY Med that can eliminate some of the gaps created by all the cancellations of this year.

I'm surprised you're so certain on The Astronaut Wives Club. I'm close to moving Under the Dome up to certain to be renewed, I just want to make sure it's staying stable this season first.

Astronaut Wives Club:
- Strike #1: Terrible ratings
- Strike #2: Contracts have long expired (and, as a result of strike #1, there is no incentive of going to all the trouble of trying to put them back together)
- Strike #3: Not made for summer (I believe) , which means no reduced budget or no special streaming or international deals (aka what makes summer shows profitable)

I think it really is dead.

For anyone who is wondering, Hunter is now 3-1 with his predictions, correctly predicting the cancellations of Hannibal, AD and American Odyssey, but missing the renewal of Aquarius.

Great article once again, always look forward to reading them. Very bold choice on Wayward Pines--I never expected numbers to be this (relatively) good, but there's the fact that cast members have moved on and it's not like the show is a blockbuster hit either. I wouldn't be surprised if it was cancelled though. I too changed my mind this week on The Whispers, but I'll have to do some more research before I decide definitively.

My guess on The Whispers is that it comes down to how much the costs can be cut. I think it is just breaking even now.

Assuming a cost of $2300 per episode (We know it started as a regular season budget show but that it was moved to Canada post pilot to accommodate move to summer, so my guess is a bit higher than a CW esque budget, which also films in Canada), and saying it gets a revenue of say $1300 per episode on adds (using past Monday's data as indicator, which was the series low), I think ABC is breaking even or making a bit of money on it now ($1000 does not seem like a stretch to be made out of secondary deals, international sales, DVDs and what's not). So if they were able to cut down costs (and loosing the two main leads sounds like a way to do that), this could be profitable next year. But there are two problems with this. One is that cutting down leads like that could have too big impact on ratings up to the point in which it is no longer profitable. Two is that it takes up valuable post Bachelorette slot; if renewed, it would probably need to be moved and we don't know how low ratings would go in that situation, I think they would go below Mistresses.

So while I think it could happen, I think the risks won't outweigh the potential benefits and that they will cancel it. But a renewal wouldn't surprise me, hence my likely cancellation prediction

Nice breakdown, thanks for this. For clarification, when you use these numbers (2300, 1300, 1000) are you simplifying them from 2 million, 1.3 million, and 1 million? Or are those the actual numbers. Thanks

Oh yes, I am simplifying everything, yeah, just for it to be more practical and to reduce my likelihood of missing a zero when writing lol

I figured, good thing we're on the right page!

I think maybe we should start talking by email Bill 2 lol, we are spanning threads left and right with our numbers discussion

Haha yeah. It's theratingsjunkie@gmail.com if we ever have the need.

Thanks, I'm glad you liked it.
Wayward Pines' 1.0 definitely meant it needed to move down, sad because I love the show. The Whispers is going to be difficult to renew with it being July now, I highly doubt it will be back.