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Would that not be hilarious if the mid-level center of vorticity (the one that commanded any sense of a surface circulation to relocate south last night), kept doing that and 95L came ashore in Honduras?
Opinion:In a general sense, 95L is embedded in an overall broad cyclonic flow covering the western Caribbean. The largest mass of convection may cyclonically rotate around the larger circulation. Today's 12Z GFS hints at that. And it would not be impossible for a CCW track to take it ashore.
Do I think that will happen? No. It would be 'funny' if it did. But an ill-defined loop of some sort maybe worthy of some consideration and a short-term display of model confusion..https://uploads.disquscdn.c...
Some reason why nobody is tracking the Recon flight and why it's not showing up at the usual sources
cow town in the grip of deep winter brrrrCalgary Int'l AirportDate:10:00 AM MDT Saturday 24 October 2020Condition:Snow GrainsPressure:104.0 kPaTendency:RisingTemperature:-12.4°CDew point:-15.2°CHumidity:80%Wind:NNW 13 km/hWind Chill:-19Visibility:6 km
HMON landfalls at 983 MB’s on extreme western Cuba at 54 hours.
We've got a clear trend here, we just have to see if a trend can actually hold this season
HMON has it at 992 MB’s south of western Cuba at 42 hours.
ScatSat indicating circulation on northern part of convection
Enough for a designation? Still don't know how to read that thing 😞
recon on the way so well find out what's really going on there
Sure looks like at least a TD.
recon will be telling
I agree as well. Will be the next named storm of 2020 soon,
The trough arrives too late :/
And on the GFS PARA it arrives too early lol
I'll wait for recon to tell us where the center is but the cloud deck is approaching Honduras.
It definitely moved some ssw today . Not sure how that impacts track but we will see.
weak steering at the moment so with all this time steering can change quite a bit. also more time to deepen so watch if the trend continues on TABD/CLP5 cause they could give an idea
Recon passing Bonita Springs in SW FL and enroute
That's way west, almost to the LA/Texas border before it shoots NE.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 24 OCTOBER 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z OCTOBER 2020
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 25/1730Z,2330Z A. 26/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0328A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0428A CYCLONE
C. 25/1530Z C. 25/1730Z
D. 20.1N 83.0W D. NA
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2330Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 49
A. 26/0530Z,1130Z A. 26/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0528A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0628A CYCLONE
C. 26/0330Z C. 26/0530Z
D. 21.0N 83.5W D. NA
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1130Z E. NA
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
B. TWO ADDITIONAL NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS
FOR 27/0000Z AND 27/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 26/1730Z AND
3. REMARK: THE TAKEOFF TIMES FOR TODAY'S NOAA 43 AND TONIGHT'S
NOAA 42 MISSIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO 24/1600Z AND 25/0330Z,
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Not buying the GFS Para. It initialized way to far to the NE.
Miss Piggy on the way
Link to this site?
Did disqus glitch out or is everybody on a break?
Blog is slow today
I wonder why with a system possibly threatening the Gulf coast
Because we don't know what it'll be and frankly, I am tired of this season. Today's storm already ripped off blue roofs, etc.
It's not even a depression yet. If/when that happens and the NHC issues the first cone it will pick up on here.
Either don’t know or burned out on a long season.
I wounder why the nhc won’t issue. A PTC on 95L Least
look at a recent vis. shot. maybe thats why.
Probably because it doesn't meet the qualifications.
it's a 90/90 lol
Okay, then explain why they haven't issued a PTC?
Because they are on there lunch break.
the NHC has their own reasons it's not so black and white
What is the imminent threat?
ok i am done for now, see ya'll after lunch
I like the path.
well that's a shift lol
Well, it is the Navgem.
Not buying that far west... Florida Panhandle, yes. Louisiana? No
I'm still thinking Panhandle but the steering situation is complex I'm not really jumping at any model run rn