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beell • 12 minutes ago

Would that not be hilarious if the mid-level center of vorticity (the one that commanded any sense of a surface circulation to relocate south last night), kept doing that and 95L came ashore in Honduras?

https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

Opinion:
In a general sense, 95L is embedded in an overall broad cyclonic flow covering the western Caribbean. The largest mass of convection may cyclonically rotate around the larger circulation. Today's 12Z GFS hints at that. And it would not be impossible for a CCW track to take it ashore.

Do I think that will happen?
No. It would be 'funny' if it did. But an ill-defined loop of some sort maybe worthy of some consideration and a short-term display of model confusion..
https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

WGC@WU • 12 minutes ago

Some reason why nobody is tracking the Recon flight and why it's not showing up at the usual sources

KOTG • 12 minutes ago

cow town in the grip of deep winter brrrr
Calgary Int'l Airport
Date:
10:00 AM MDT Saturday 24 October 2020
Condition:
Snow Grains
Pressure:
104.0 kPa
Tendency:
Rising
Temperature:
-12.4°C
Dew point:
-15.2°C
Humidity:
80%
Wind:
NNW 13 km/h
Wind Chill:
-19
Visibility:
6 km

FLORIDA IKE • 13 minutes ago

HMON landfalls at 983 MB’s on extreme western Cuba at 54 hours.

CaneAndAbel • 14 minutes ago

We've got a clear trend here, we just have to see if a trend can actually hold this season

Kaotic • 14 minutes ago
KOTG • 20 minutes ago
FLORIDA IKE • 21 minutes ago

HMON has it at 992 MB’s south of western Cuba at 42 hours.

Nrtiwlnvragn • 32 minutes ago

ScatSat indicating circulation on northern part of convection

https://uploads.disquscdn.c...
https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

Dbz101 • 28 minutes ago

Enough for a designation? Still don't know how to read that thing 😞

Storm Master > YCC • 25 minutes ago

recon on the way so well find out what's really going on there

FLORIDA IKE • 34 minutes ago

Sure looks like at least a TD.

CaneAndAbel • 19 minutes ago

recon will be telling

richardginn • 20 minutes ago

I agree as well. Will be the next named storm of 2020 soon,

Storm Master > YCC • 26 minutes ago

agreed

Caribboy • 34 minutes ago

The trough arrives too late :/

https://www.tropicaltidbits...

Caribboy • 27 minutes ago

And on the GFS PARA it arrives too early lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits...

bucsboltsrays • 36 minutes ago

I'll wait for recon to tell us where the center is but the cloud deck is approaching Honduras.

https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

Zantac • 28 minutes ago

It definitely moved some ssw today . Not sure how that impacts track but we will see.

CaneAndAbel • 17 minutes ago

weak steering at the moment so with all this time steering can change quite a bit. also more time to deepen so watch if the trend continues on TABD/CLP5 cause they could give an idea

WGC@WU • 41 minutes ago

Recon passing Bonita Springs in SW FL and enroute

Nrtiwlnvragn • 43 minutes ago
bucsboltsrays • 39 minutes ago

That's way west, almost to the LA/Texas border before it shoots NE.

Storm Master > YCC • 43 minutes ago

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1200 PM EDT SAT 24 OCTOBER 2020

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z OCTOBER 2020

TCPOD NUMBER.....20-151

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)

FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49

A. 25/1730Z,2330Z A. 26/0000Z

B. NOAA3 0328A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0428A CYCLONE

C. 25/1530Z C. 25/1730Z

D. 20.1N 83.0W D. NA

E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2330Z E. NA

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 49

A. 26/0530Z,1130Z A. 26/1200Z

B. NOAA2 0528A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0628A CYCLONE

C. 26/0330Z C. 26/0530Z

D. 21.0N 83.5W D. NA

E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1130Z E. NA

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:

A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS

A THREAT.

B. TWO ADDITIONAL NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS

FOR 27/0000Z AND 27/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 26/1730Z AND

27/0530Z.

3. REMARK: THE TAKEOFF TIMES FOR TODAY'S NOAA 43 AND TONIGHT'S

NOAA 42 MISSIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO 24/1600Z AND 25/0330Z,

RESPECTIVELY.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

bucsboltsrays • 45 minutes ago

Not buying the GFS Para. It initialized way to far to the NE.

Nrtiwlnvragn • 47 minutes ago

Miss Piggy on the way

https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

Andre Brooks • 29 minutes ago

Link to this site?

Dbz101 • 47 minutes ago

Did disqus glitch out or is everybody on a break?

FLORIDA IKE • 46 minutes ago

Blog is slow today

Yvette Helen Owes • 36 minutes ago

I wonder why with a system possibly threatening the Gulf coast

Buubacanoe • 24 minutes ago

Because we don't know what it'll be and frankly, I am tired of this season. Today's storm already ripped off blue roofs, etc.

bucsboltsrays • 34 minutes ago

It's not even a depression yet. If/when that happens and the NHC issues the first cone it will pick up on here.

FLORIDA IKE • 35 minutes ago

Either don’t know or burned out on a long season.

Storm Master > YCC • 1 hour ago

I wounder why the nhc won’t issue. A PTC on 95L Least

101010edwebster . • 1 hour ago

look at a recent vis. shot. maybe thats why.

bucsboltsrays • 1 hour ago

Probably because it doesn't meet the qualifications.

CaneAndAbel • 1 hour ago

it's a 90/90 lol

bucsboltsrays • 1 hour ago

Okay, then explain why they haven't issued a PTC?

Zantac • 1 hour ago

Because they are on there lunch break.

CaneAndAbel • 1 hour ago

the NHC has their own reasons it's not so black and white

Rob • 53 minutes ago

What is the imminent threat?

Ms. DBW (DeLand) • 1 hour ago

ok i am done for now, see ya'll after lunch

Ms. DBW (DeLand) • 1 hour ago
Ms. DBW (DeLand) • 1 hour ago
richardginn • 55 minutes ago

I like the path.

CaneAndAbel • 1 hour ago

well that's a shift lol

bucsboltsrays • 1 hour ago

Well, it is the Navgem.

Allan Reed • 1 hour ago

Not buying that far west... Florida Panhandle, yes. Louisiana? No

CaneAndAbel • 1 hour ago

I'm still thinking Panhandle but the steering situation is complex I'm not really jumping at any model run rn

Ms. DBW (DeLand) • 1 hour ago