starting to get buzy here

Someone posted a couple of days ago that this is going to be the Bahamas' Katrina. I fear they are going to be proved right .... along with the 5 confirmed deaths, I have heard anecdotal reports of at least 7 other people having been found dead in their roofs, two of them in Grand Bahama. I'm sure we will hear more as the hours progress, but Bahamas Defense Force Officers are struggling with the sights they are encountering. This is going to be a grim week for Bahamians.

I'm so glad you are ok, and heart broken for all who had to go through that storm. It's almost beyond comprehension.

Looks more like the Fukushima tsunami than Katrina.

yes it is like a tsunami mixed with a large tornado - wish that was an exaggeration!

from what I understand they're collecting bodies in trucks.

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Flyover of the Marsh Harbour area.
Notice the amount of water still standing in lowlying areas. The Defense minister says they expect the death toll to climb, and that the previously reported 5 deaths include children.

Omg! my heart is broken for them. 😞 I am a hurricane Andrew survivor and knowing what we went through in Homestead, during Andrew...I just can't imagine what they went through ... 😞😞😞💜💜💜

This is very sad. So very sad.

Heartbroken

That middle photo looks like the KFC https://goo.gl/maps/7uVGTmk... 26°32'20.6"N 77°03'39.8"W. In the same area. Lots of little shanty, small, low income houses. :\ I hope those people were in designated shelters.

Judging from the radio I heard before first landfall, - they were appealing to the last die-hards to see sense. Purely subjective of course but I've the impression almost everyone was in shelters.

Did all the shelters survive intact?

Dear God that is just horrible!

I'm so sorry. This is huge tragedy

OMG!!!!!!!

The death toll is going to be unlike anything we've seen here since the 1920s ...

Sumter County, Florida. Steady breeze, raining with intermittent periods of sunshine.

https://www.tropicaltidbits...

Nimrod High School and Twits With Sticks?

🙄 😏

Thanks for the spam.

you are more than welcome https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

NHS and TWS?

oh yeah,,NHC and TWC

Bahamas Persons SEARCH | Hurricane Dorian https://docs.google.com/doc...

There is a new post.

Thank you. Y’all are the best.

thx doc

Grand Bahama aftermath

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Very favorable MJO for late September early October

more discussion now w Dr Knabb re trend in slow/stalling storms, and given how sad the devastation is in the Bahamas, that had it tracked/stalled 70-80 miles further East, what an extensive destruction event that would have been - and that this will be a challenge in forecasting in the future as this new trend evolves

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I know itz radar and can play tricks but looks like its going g a tad west

agreed..... seems to be taking a wnw jog.

Yes it does

thankfully.... they cannot bear any more.

exactly.... really reorganzing itself.... thinking the upwelling had more to do with its rapid weakening than the EWRC

I see more west movement than north...??? What ya think?

NW at 3mph in new advisory

It'll be interesting to see how Dorian reacts to warmer waters later tonight. Whilst he may not strengthen much per say via max winds, warmer waters could help continue to expand his windfield and increase rainfall.

"much per say" ???

I'd love a smart person to comment on whether the warmer water is the main reason the storm is supposed to keep hurricane strength so long.

Two things drive a cyclone. First: the difference in the temperature between the air entering the eye and the temperature at the top of the eye drives the updraft. Warmer water warms the air coming into the bottom. The updraft causes the low pressure system and that pulls in the winds.

Second, the CDO is strengthened by the heat released when water vapor precipitates as water. The availability of water vapor is crucial to holding a storm together and strengthening the winds. The amount of water in the air increases by about 7% for each 1°C increase in SST below.

The Caribbean is very warm and water from the caribbean moves north of Cuba and then east of Florida through the Florida Straits. The water then curves north to form the Gulf Stream. Even while Dorian was over Grand Bahama, it was sucking warm moist air from the Caribbean Flow (the flow through the Florida Straits).

Thanks, Reed!

Hurricanes use up a lot of energy, they get a lot of their energy from the warm waters. Typically when they go over cooler water they tend to stop strengthening or outright weaken. Lots of elements at play though but in general an already formed storm with a strong core will be good at turning that warm water into power

Mostly correct. Check above.

I've heard the stationary position caused it to churn up the cooler deep waters. As it goes north with warmer waters, does that mean it will regain force?