980mb at 174hrs on the Euro. Underneath a anticyclone in the NW bahamas at 200mb. Robust circulation with a large moisture field in the Mid-levels. without alot of shear the dry air around the system is a non-factor this run.

https://uploads.disquscdn.c...
https://uploads.disquscdn.c...
https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

After 97L into LA and 98L into TX, the GFS forms a third storm and takes it right over where 98L hit.
https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

I think the reason why we don't have 98L yet may be due to the uncertainty of the tropical wave/disturbance merge. Global models suggest TC genesis could occur as soon as Wednesday. However, most of the models do not show significant intensification while in the MDR.

I imagine it's kinda hard to pinpoint an invest location early on in this kind of scenario.

All thank Captain Trough for changes in the track

I see the opening. It's a week out though.

Just like Caribboy and weather Jamaica want their rain, all I want is to see the stars with no light pollution

Looks like it's starting to turn. Another east coaster?

987mb at 168hrs. Likely a hurricane. Steering takes this WNW.

drops 7mb between 156 and 162hrs on the Euro.

And it looks like it’s about to head north, too, ridge pulling back, good news.

Good news for who? This run plows right into the US

He only cares about where he lives or at least that what the comments make you believe

bad news for me

I’m sorry Jason

Some possible Mid-level dry air wrapping around the circulation at 150hrs on the Euro.
https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

its still a well-protected moisture pouch, but any increase in shear could allow for it to get entrained on this run.

Good to see it being killed off, but remember, Dorian ate dry air for breakfast.

that is not what this is showing at all. Being killed off isl like what a model would show happened to Josephine

If it keeps moving WNW at hour 168 its aiming for Florida.

do we have 98Lnow

not yet should do at the 18Z data set

No

144hrs on the high-res Euro. https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

Trough lifting out of the GOM, ridging building in off the southeast coast, now to watch what happens over the Great Lakes and Eastern Ontario to see if the ridge weakens from a northern stream shortwave.

Hey, put that away, you’re gonna scare some folks with that

Gene still trying to mix out some dry continental air. But looking like a rapidly intensifying system.

https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

It keeps 97L weak though, maybe only as an open wave

Coming right for me, glad it is a week out to change

chargin right at you.....thats gotta be a 25 mph storm. rains coming your way now i think, just had a mini derecho through winter park just now. my hottie neighbor had to run back in!

Wasn’t Isaias like a weak storm after it left Hispaniola

wouldnt call it weak at that time. broad might be a better term. euros is tight one

It was classified a hurricane just north of Hispaniola. Also storms do not need to be strong to have great impact on that Island

A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is forecast to interact with another disturbance located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands within the next day or two. that why the storm will go more wnw or nw more

Fingers crossed, go north

PR may have been flooded by Isaias, but Carribboy needs his rain

https://twitter.com/ToddKim...

Initially , then builds

Looks like the low riders may verify , lots of moisture on our side . September could be quite active for us .

Is ex-Josephine creating a weakening in the ridge, or is that a TUTT next to it?

Too late for you lol

You can keep it, Caibboy,..not welcome.here.
.

Hey some of us are excited to see a tropical storm coming towards us

This isn't going to be a weak storm...

Most models right now show barely a 1000mb storm.

Wait until the HWRF starts running doom runs before claiming it won’t be weak