We were unable to load Disqus. If you are a moderator please see our troubleshooting guide.

TTG • 5 years ago

I also have no doubt the R+6 will launch the Idlib offensive. The Tiger Force began carrying out limited offensive operations along the Hama-Idlib axis, clearing out some jihadi forward entrenchments. SouthFront reports the elimination of a senior jihadi commander by SAA artillery strikes. The artillery was called in by a deep reconnaissance patrol. SouthFront called this a special operation. Sounds more like standard infantry operations to me. We'll see a lot more of this while the R+6 continues talks with the Turks.

Michael • 5 years ago

I fully agree with you and the editorial of our guest.

Surely The Sultan was to be reluctant to give back Idilib and even more Afrin, the problem of his balancing acts is that he can not conceive surviving by aligning again with the USA and/or the jihadists.
And might not survive at all if he does not pretend to defend them.
I will let President Putin explain to him that he can not burn all bridges and all ships, for that effect a meeting is scheduled in Sotchi.

foot note: It seems there was some PR operation by the HTS (MofA today)

Pat Lang • 5 years ago

"Our guest" is me, your turcopolier. When something is not signed, I wrote it.

Michael • 5 years ago

I am aware of that Sir,
I just thought it was an elegant way of showing appreciation for your nice evaluation of this situation developments.

Indeed the stage is set, the situation can drag a little more, as a preliminary Erdogan must have some face saving, the SAA will slowly start the crescendo and hopefully the USA and the Russian will avoid bringing the whole house down.

But I confess being an optimist.

Varg • 5 years ago

Pat, always adds the pl in the end. He forgot to add it this time? He sounded angry, have to read it again. It felt to better stay out of the way as nitwit babbler. But at that time I read it it definitively was there.

Barbara Ann • 5 years ago

This mother of all poker games has to end. The stakes are high for all, but for Russia they are sky high. Accepting a permanent Jihadistan right next to its strategic assets in Syria would be an invitation to the Borg to turn Idlib into an endless sink for Russian resources.

I did consider whether Russia may agree to Turkey's offer to jointly police the region. But again, the Borg would surely use every opportunity to foment unrest and force Russia to pour ever more peacekeeping troops in. Besides, any territory still under rebel control is an excuse for the shadow Syrian government to retain legitimacy, so a future 'spontaneous' Arab spring can bring them to power. That can't be permitted.

As for the Sultan, he deserves everything he gets. Next time he gets wind of an imminent coup in Ankara, Putin will doubtless have something more urgent to do than call up his buddy there. Erdogan talks of Turkey being "constrained to Anatolia" and blames Ataturk for 'betrayal' of the National Pact. Well we can all wish events 100 years ago went differently, but guess what, what's why they call it history. I think this reality is about to smack him in the face big time.

If Russia caves in here the Borg will just push it to the limit elsewhere (Ukraine?) and assume she will do likewise. No, it is time to call it & find out who is bluffing. FUKUS - well that is the most apt acronym of all - we sure asked for it. I concur Colonel and pray that what Tidewater said here recently is right; that a short, sharp conventional war is what results.

VietnamVet • 5 years ago

Colonel,

It clear that the US, UK and France have not yet given up on the partition of Syria at the bequest of Israel and Saudi Arabia. This all may be the art of the bluff by the Supremo Ugly American; but, keeping an unwinnable war going for 17 years is crazy. It worked once before. I think NATO cannot give up on the strategic strategy of using Jihadists to take down the Kremlin. Al Qaeda is concentrated in Idlib Province. They are a real threat to the Russian Federation. Doubtful but perhaps, Russia will be content to take small bites and bits of the province in a policy of containment and the Sultan keeps a Turkish token? But even with this accommodation, the risks of a shooting war between nuclear powers remains extreme. If they weren’t insane, the power elite would recognize that the use of proxy forces against Russia, Iran and China is against the best interests of American citizens.

Walrus • 5 years ago

I am concerned by Two thoughts. (1) I suspect the Whitehouse has decided to "think big" and intends to put Russia in her place by destroying the attacking formations of the SAA and any Russian assets that attempt to intervene. To NOT do so opens the door to the possibility that Russia "wins " out of an engagement in Idlib and the. one thing Trump hates is being seen as a loser. If we engage, we will "go big".

(2) I am extremely worried about the naval dimension. Submarines are presently active on both sides and are naturally regarded as "prey" by surface ships and vice versa "even in peacetime " (my emphasis) there is therefore a non zero probability of a fatal incident right effing now.

Neither Putin nor Trump can afford to back away if an engagement starts

Tidewater • 5 years ago

Tidewater to Walrus,

"I am extremely worried about the naval dimension." I agree. I have been looking for information about the location of US navy ships. Two of these, both DDGs, have been mentioned in the MSM as being potentially involved in Tomahawk launches. I found that both of these, USS The Sullivans (DDG-68) and USS Ross (DDG-71) have Facebook pages! These sites are run by family members of crew, I assume, and are tolerated. There is further authorized information from navy sources, but I am getting a lot of this from Facebook. I think it is accurate to say that The Sullivans is out of range of an attack on eastern Syria. It is now in the Gulf of Oman. Ross, which is part of Sixth fleet, seems to me to have been back at Rota recently. I base that in part on the Andalusian background of some photos of onboard ceremonies and the massive concrete pier. Flag is at half mast in one photo which could make it possibly around August 27. Ross is home-ported at Rota, and this year they have been going all over the Med, and even the Black Sea. On August 24 they were at Batumi, Georgia.

Right when I started to relax a bit, it pops up from a more official source that, as of September 3, Ross is shown in a formation that includes USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG-81), USS Carney (DDG-64) and fleet replenishment oiler USNS Big Horn (TAO-198). Carney is also home-ported at Rota, one of four FDNF ( Forward Deployed Naval Force) DDGs in the Mediterranean. I am not sure who the other two are at the moment. At one point there was the USS Donald Cook (DDG-75) , which is the one that had a close encounter of some sort in the Black Sea. That's three DDGs out there with the ability to stay awhile, and all within range of Syria, I assume.

And then there are the submarines...

FB • 5 years ago

I agree with this in principle...a similar take is developed here in quite some detail on the Saker blog, translated from the Russian...

'Russia has a difficult task in Idlib now. It consists not of
repelling an American attack, but of not repelling it too strongly.
Trump opts for an attack not because he wants to win against the
Russians in Syria, but because he wants to win against the globalists
back home in America, and to do this on the eve of congressional
elections. I.e., the reasons for America’s attack against Syria are
purely internal.

If Russia hits Trump in Syria too strongly, it risks drowning him
instead of somehow supporting his menacing image and helping him to win
[in elections – ed]. Simply because Trump is favorable to Russia – he
breaks too well everything that the American power of the last few
decades has been based on.

To help the impeachment of such a guy is outside of the national interests of Russia. We can’t now overstep the mark in Syria. Trump has to leave the line of fire as a fine fellow, butnot as a fool and a loser.
John Waddell • 5 years ago

As they don't believe that the Russians and Syrians will kill them all Turkey and the Europeans really don't want their terrorists fleeing over the border escaping an onslaught and heading home. At least the US probably doesn't want the terrorists from Russia and China etc to be killed. Good reasons in their minds to try to stop any attack on Idlib.

FB • 5 years ago

LOL...I agree with the Colonel...

I don't see there's much anyone can do to stop the good guys from cleaning up the Idlib rat's nest...Erdog is doing a lot of squealing but what can he really do on the ground...not much...

The FUKUS noise is kabuki theater...the train has left the station on Idlib a long time ago...

Araminta Smade • 5 years ago

My Fearless Forecast - In the end, the Russians and Syrians will say to hell with this and launch the offensive. Pl

Though it’s not directly linked I think that Putins putting forward of his 2 GRU guys is a FU signal to the Brits in particular and the West in general. He’s had enough of backing off. We are coming to one of those moments in history where the talking stops and the fighting begins.

We will be at war with Russia within six months!

FB • 5 years ago

Yeah those two 'tourists' do look the part don't they...I would say they are probably GRU or something similar...but nobody 'poisoned' the Skripals...that's total kabuki theater...another Potemkin village production from the reality masters...

Something is afoot here though...perhaps these two were lured to Salisbury as part of a frame up plot, perhaps by Skripal himself...or perhaps the Brits caught wind of their plans to visit [on some standard spying mission, certainly not assassination] and put in motion the elaborate hoax...

But for professional assasins to come direct from Moscow and back...and use gas of all things...guys like this can snuff you out with a paper bag and not leave a trace...

aleksandar • 5 years ago

Sorry but no, they are not GRU agents.
- GRU will never send two agents in the same plane
- GRU will never send two agents the same day
- GRU will never use a direct fly Moscou-London
- GRU will not housed two agent to the same hotel
- Gru will not allow them to use public transportation system
- Gru will not take these two asset back in Russia using the same plane.
And so on, and so on
This story is a farce:
https://www.craigmurray.org...
https://www.craigmurray.org...
When you send agents for such a mission :
First you send a recco team to prepare it, set up a plan with the most DISCREET and FAST "in" and "out".
Then you send someoneto rent a car with a false identity
When agent are "in" they get back the car with directive inside, without meeting anybody.No contact in a foreing country !
And it is a " one shot " mission, if it failed , stop it and set up a new one with other agents
Most of people in the west think that russians are stupids, they are not
An t they know how to play the " game ".
( I hope TTG will agree :) )

Araminta Smade • 5 years ago

I agree. They were very probably decoys. Their ineptitude speaks volumes! The real action and poisoning of the Skripals occurred elsewhere, probably while their phones were switched off!

FB • 5 years ago

There was never any 'poisoning' of Skripals...the idea that anybody was ever poisoned is silly...

smoothieX12 . • 5 years ago

putting forward of his 2 GRU guys

Those are not G(R)U. But Russian meme machine already hit high gear and this one is the best. For those who wants to know at least some background--Google Soviet TV series 17 Instances (Moments) of Spring. SS officer in the meme asks:"How are you, new generation".

https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

Pat Lang • 5 years ago

OK. now without looking it up - what is his rank?

FB • 5 years ago

I believe he was a Colonel, Colonel...

Anyway I disagree with everyone here it seems...these guys aren't tourists...but they also didn't try to kill anyone...that's stupid...

It's some sort of spy game...

Here's one scenario...double agent Skripal makes convincing noises about flipping back...someone at GRU [or some similar outfit] sends these two to Salisbury to check it out...a very stupid move...which is why Putin is now miffed enough to display these guys publicly and their field career surely over...also a slap in the face to the silly Limeys for playing dirty pool...even in the cloak and dagger game there are unwritten rules...

That's just one possibility...Here's what I am certain about...nobody was poisoned with any nerve agent...likely that woman that died was from opiod OD...which was in fact the initial diagnosis on the Skripals too..until Porton Down conveniently stepped in to set the doctors straight...

Doctors in Salisbury which is a rural district would have been well versed in recognizing an organo-phosphate poisoning...since it's used in pesticides...and is the chemical basis of all nerve agents, and produces the SAME symptoms...

So there was never any nerve gas poisoning...that's just a comedy...anyway if these two had wanted to kill Skripal they could have easily done so with a plastic bag and left no trace...nor would they have made themselves so obvious...

Let's hear from Skripal and little Yulia...I'm sure they have quite a tale to tell...LOL

johnf • 5 years ago

I'd agree with most of that.

I'd add that it ties into the Russiagate saga. Christopher Steele lives down the road from Sailisbury, is a member of Orbis, and wrote the dodgy dossier which essentially kicked off Russia-gate - an operation which the British deep state and presumably Theresa May was deeply implicated in. (Hence, when Trump was elected, the hasty resignation of the young and healthy head of GCHQ and Theresa May's panicked visit to hold hands with Trump in the Rose Garden).

Pablo Miller (who has a D-notice on his mention in the British Press) is also in Orbis and lives in Salisbury. He was the person who turned/bribed Skripal to defect from Russia. As FB Ali says, it could well be that Skripal had decided to re-defect (his price would have been high since his revelations on the dodgy dossier once he was in Moscow would have blown the Trump opposition out of the water) and the Russian duo could have been sent to Salisbury to negotiate his re-defection.

This would have panicked the British Deep State and this Novichok pantomime was hastily nailed together as an explanation for the detention and disappearance of the Skripals. (Though if I'd have been the Russians I'd have used his visiting daughter for the negotiating).

The rotting corpse of this story has been useful though to wheel out everytime our foundering government appears to be about to sink in yet another scandal (Look over there - evil Putin!) and as pre-preps for another Syrian false flag chemical attack.

FB • 5 years ago

Agree fully...the Steele / Miller / Skripal / Salisbury nexus is one heck of a big coinkidink...and then we also have Porton Down right around the corner...

Like you say, it could be something VERY big lurking in the shadows of this whole saga...and that something could in fact be closely tied to the ongoing putsch against Trump...

smoothieX12 . • 5 years ago

I believe he was a Colonel, Colonel...

He was a Colonel Maxim Maximovich Isaev of GRU. He was known to Center (Alex) as Justas and he was Standartenführer SS Shtirliets Max Von Otto (btw, Berlin's Tennis champion and the member of NSDAP since 1929 IIRC).

FB • 5 years ago

Yes...good old Stirlitz...I remember that from my exchange student days...the whole series is on youtube now...a very engaging bit of cinema...I'm sure you also remember some of the Stirlitz jokes from the sardonic communist-era public...

Stirlitz approaches Berlin. The city is veiled in smoke from the fires. “Forgot to switch off the iron again,” thought Stirlitz with slight irritation.

A flower pot fell off the window sill of the secret apartment and
smashed Stirlitz on the head. This was the signal that his wife had just given birth to a son. Stirlitz shed a single manly tear. He hadn’t been home for seven years.
Pat Lang • 5 years ago

Yes, a standartenfuhrer is a colonel equivalent although the SS technically did not have officers.

smoothieX12 . • 5 years ago

In the movie he was Standartenführer SS but there was a factual mistake in uniform which should have been grey. The quality of the movie (12 parts) is superb.BTW, screenshots are 180 degrees rotated for some reason.

Pat Lang • 5 years ago

Very Good.

Mark Logan • 5 years ago

War with Russia?

My fearless forecast is the neocon FUKUSes have allowed themselves to be fooled by the LOTWH's habit of telling whoever happens to be in front of him whatever it is the LOTWH thinks they wish to hear.

If shove should come to push...the LOTWH will at most bomb another empty airfield and declare victory.

Aukuu Makule • 5 years ago

I cannot get past your statement:
" Putins putting forward of his 2 GRU guys"
Are you saying that these 2 men are actually GRU agents?
Have you read the transcript of their interview?
If not, here:
https://www.rt.com/news/438...
Obvious to me these two men having nothing to do with GRU or any other part of the government of Russia.
They are small businessmen, marketing health/dietary supplements to a clientele in Russia that is predominately gay. And they are being outed by forces larger than they are capable of dealing with. And they have reluctantly/fearfully come forward because they have been falsely accused by the Prime Minister of UK.
Furthermore, your statement that Putin has "had enough of backing off" is seriously off the mark. Putin has consistently denied that Russia had anything to do with the alleged poisoning of the Skripals, and he continues to do so in a calm deliberate rational manner.

Araminta Smade • 5 years ago

I have read the transcript and watched the interview. That they are gay (1 double bed in the hotel) I do not doubt.) Whether they are formal members of the GRU I do doubt. Were they coerced or inveigled into something that they did not understand? I think that very probable but to deny the presence of the GRU’s influence is to deny reality. Was it an MI6 sting? Maybe. The problem is that a great deal of what happened on March 4 is hidden from view. Just what were the Skripals doing that morning and why was Yulia involved? Like everyone else I have my own opinions but can furnish no proof.

As to Mr. Putin my observation was what the decision to front up these guys revealed about his general mind set rather than his attitude to the Skripal business in particular which is after all a very minor matter in the scheme of things. Russia in the form of its President is faced with a dilemma very similar to that which confronted the Japanese in 1941, he can retreat as they were required to do in the face of the sanctions and latent power of the United States or fight as they chose to do. I believe he has made the same decision that they arrived at. Whether it will come to the same ending we shall see!

Barbara Ann • 5 years ago

All

Yesterday SF published a very timely, detailed analysis describing Turkish strategy in Syria. Sadly it is entirely without citations, but is nevertheless the most comprehensive single resource on the subject I've seen recently.

https://southfront.org/turk...

Mark Logan • 5 years ago

Pompeo creates a disconcerting face-palmer to kick off his Instagram.

"Department of Swagger"
https://www.instagram.com/p...

YCMTSU.

Bergoff Birns • 5 years ago

Well done. If Ursula von der Leyen gets her way, perhaps we can enjoy a replay of the Ottoman-German alliance of Aug. 1914. Will Tayyip bomb the Black Sea ports a la October 1914 to complete the "history repeats itself as farce" scenario?

Michael • 5 years ago

Can we discern the SAA chipping at the Idlib province by small installments ? completing its isolation except from turkey ?
corroding slowly defense and logistic infrastructures in Idlib while keeping the Russian air show on the remnants of ISIS ?
When the unseen 90 % of the iceberg melt the whole goes belly-up, formidable and spectacular "dentelle" of ice.

From an other perspective: communication, the attention of the public is not used to focus for a too long time on the same topic. Smoking Lavrov talk now of containment, our Turkish partner, more palavers.
One must remember the Chinese 15 billions fiancial aid to Turquey. Promised or delivered ? more to come ?

Delays surely up to the mid-terms, no , not related.
First votes results are difficult to guess, except of course if Russians are really the master of interfering and getting theirs (many) favorites elected, but seriously who can say what the winner Party, Presidential side or opposition will do ?

aleksandar • 5 years ago

1- There is NO NATO involvement in Syria.
And a lot of Nato members will like to see these djihadists vaporized ( Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and so )
2- I tend to agree will Bill Herschel, 53 days to wait, Idlib is surrounded,
R+6 have plenty of time to cure this abscess.
This battle has already begun, skirmishes every days to test
djihadist lines of defence and attrition (air power.+ Arty.) This
phase can go on days and days,
3 - The question about what turkey will do is nonsense.
The only question is what turkey can do militarily.
It's clear that they have no enough manpower to stop SAA.
Take also a look at a syrian map, East , along M5, distance between Turkish observation posts is about 15 miles ( 25 km ).
The average attack front for a regiment is 0.7 miles with 3 coys front and 1 rear.
SAA can engage a whole division there.
That why I think that M5 is the main objective and East front the only where SAA can be engaged in full strenght and speed.

Eugene Owens • 5 years ago

An attack by ground forces will probably not start until sometime after the Erdogan/Putin meeting at Sochi on this coming Monday. And as was claimed by an unnamed Damascus source in Al-Masdar News yesterday, the attack will have limited objectives: Al-Ghaab Plain (SW Idlib), Jisr Al-Shughour (SW Idlib), and Abu Dhuhour area (SE Idlib). Although there are still SAA/Russian discussions regarding a thrust towards Saraqib.

If the AMN article is true, Idlib is going to be nibbled one bite at a time. After Jisr Al-Shughour and Abu Dhuhour areas are stabilized there will be another bite. Perhaps the next offensive will be for Maarat al-Nu'man or perhaps to clear the area west of Aleppo City, or wherever. Eventually retaking all of the M5 highway, and after that all of Idlib (next year?). Makes sense to me.

But there is also a danger of an alleged Turkish threat to Tal Rifa'at north of Aleppo. Does that threat come from Ankara? Or does it come from a low level TSK commander on the scene?

https://www.almasdarnews.co...

https://www.almasdarnews.co...

Commander Chico • 5 years ago

Does Trump have any core beliefs? Or will he tack without care to the wind of his new "friends?" It depends on that.

https://perezhilton.com/wp-...

Bill Herschel • 5 years ago

Words from a man deserving of respect... who should stop smoking:

"BEIRUT, LEBANON (8:30 P.M.) – Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that reports of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) ramping up for an offensive in Idlib with the support of Russian troops is an “unscrupulous representation of facts.” He made the statement during a plenary meeting alongside top German and Russian officials in Berlin on Friday.

“What is being passed for an offensive by the Syrian Arab Army with the support of Russian troops is an unscrupulous representation of the facts,” Lavrov said.

According to the Russian foreign minister, the Syrian and Russian troops “only react to the forays coming from the Idlib area.”

He went on to say that “the fact that they are just people who have settled in Idlib, like in a fortress, and want a truce – it’s not true. From there they actively carry out military operations, using the support they somehow receive from abroad.”

53 days.

Guest • 5 years ago
Barbara Ann • 5 years ago

Disagree. The enemy will always find a casus belli if he wants to fight, backing down just leads him to believe you are weak. The time has come for Russia to show the exact opposite. If they were not willing to go all the way they had no business joining the Syrian game.

Putin has already blinked, further delay will allow Turkey to consolidate its position diplomatically and militarily. Astana gave Erdogan his Golden Bridge and after failing to do anything (at best) about AQ in Idlib for a year, he is now bringing tanks and heavy artillery into Syria.

Let FUKUS go all in and let's see what their voters think when they see their countries at war with a first rate military power.

Bill Herschel • 5 years ago

LOTWH as well as his party see catastrophe looming on November 6, 53 days from now. And they have very few arrows in their quiver to prevent it. Riding St. John of Arizona's shroud into war in Syria is probably the only way to help their cause here in the U.S. After all, Schumer, Biden, Obama, and probably even Sanders would be on board.

Can Russia wait 53 days before attacking? Well, it depends on what you mean by attacking. They're already attacking. They have been at war in Syria since September 30th (and undoubtedly before) 2015. They certainly can "appear to wait" at the very least.

Does Russia give up a military advantage by waiting. Only if NATO will immediately come to Turkey's aid when Russia starts annihilating their troops. That of course is what Erdogan is counting on. He wouldn't be flexing his muscles if he thought he was facing Russia alone.

But perhaps a related question is, "Has Russia given up a military advantage by not invading Ukraine? By instead permitting a smoldering war to go on and on?" I say they have not.

Russia/SAA will wait at least 53 days.

Reggie Meezer • 5 years ago

Wait 53 days for what??

Barbara Ann • 5 years ago

Idlib will be well on its way to being part of the Turkish Republic of Northern Syria in 53 days unless they act now.

jnewman • 5 years ago

So FUKUS = allies-qu'ida's?

Pat Lang • 5 years ago

allies + HTS

alaric • 5 years ago

I'm quite confident that Erdogan is trying to annex Idlib.

That said, Erdogan cannot simply acquiesce to the Iranian/Russian plan, thus appearing like their agent either. There are by some estimates nearly 50K jihadists in Idlib. Where will they go when the Russian's and Syrians start attacking in earnest? Some will die fighting but many will try to escape to Turkey. Openly cooperating with Russia and Iran is not going benefit US, Turkish relations either. Erdogan survived one coup attempt but that doesn't exclude another attempt or severe economic warfare on Turkey.

There may be a few skirmishes with between Turkish troops and Syrian aligned groups but i suspect Erdogan will leave in the end with only limited damages because Erdogan really has no allies now and Turkey is in a bit of economic and other trouble. I'm sure he'll bring some of the Turkish aligned troops that he can control with him or at least he'll set them loose on the Kurds somewhere in Syria but he will gradually surrender Idlib, privately at least.

Remember the US expulsion is the main issue after Idlib is liberated. The borg will try to keep Idlib occupied as long as possible.

Kooshy • 5 years ago

IMO Turkey is in no position to piss off the Russian and Iranians, in a totally breaking way. Turkey gets 70% of her gas from Russian and Iranians as well as some of her oil.
In no way she can replace that with LNG from Qatar or Algiers. In many odd ways, Turkey is a aliened F*ed country. European and American put pressure on her with devaluing her currency and finances. Russian and Iranians can stop her growth by limiting her energy draw. It’s a tough zigzag environment to survive in a changing world order. Iran has many centuries of experiencing how to balance powers in her favor. Turks and Arabs don’t, that’s why Iranians were able to survived the European colonialism as well as this last 40 years, and Turks and Arabs couldn’t.