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Charles M. Hagmaier • 5 months ago

Meh. Sounds like a hurricane wrecked the experimental sites and interrupted the experiment. I'm not sure that a disturbed and interrupted experiment is at all useful or dispositive in any reasonable sense. I love unexpected results as much as the next guy, but 'a hurricane destroyed my research' is not synonymous with 'publishable results'.

Dave Mears • 5 months ago

Human caused global warming as a theory is based on some knowledge, but also a lot of assumptions, many of them wrong.

Robert • 5 months ago

"Human caused global warming as a theory is based on some knowledge . . ." Very generous of you Dave, there is precious little actual knowledge regarding climate change and no verifiable data on global warming. The assertions in supporting of AGW when tested fold like this instance.

Dave Mears • 5 months ago

There is some knowledge, but a lot of "you don't know what you don't know." Predictions aren't really meaningful at this stage of human knowledge, but there is a lot of money in trying.

Jack Amok • 5 months ago

Her Global Warming experiment was blown away by a hurricane. There's only one reasonable conclusion - Global Warming has gotten so bad that we must stop trying to test it and just assume the experiment would have proven the econuts right.

Dogbert • 5 months ago

Except CO2 does not have a linear effect on heat absorption. So they are looking for the wrong things to start with. CO2 lags temperature increases.

Sardondi • 5 months ago

"Science says that every possible scenario proves global warming."

It's just simpler to lie.

Timothy Harris • 5 months ago

The result is only unexpected if you think in little boxes.
If the average temperature all around Puerto Rico rises you get more evaporation from the ocean, so more rain, damper soil.
Raise the temperature just on a small plot of land, you increase evaporation from that soil, drying it out. Unless you can artificially heat enough area to influence the regional evaporation -> precipitation cycle your results will be complete nonsense. And even if you could do that large an experiment you would still have enough confounding factors to make your results unreliable.

Experiments that make sense in closed systems are seldom useful in open systems.

buddhaha • 5 months ago

Beat me to it. Open loop experiments that provide numbers to parameters are only useful IF you have a good understanding of the closed loop. We don't have that understanding so this work is essentially, a waste of time and money.

Except to the extent that it contributes to the "Climate Channge" hysteria...

yahyamessenger • 5 months ago

Budhaha already read

charris208 • 5 months ago

Interesting, but if the result is moisture dependent I don't think anything can model that accurately at this point. There would be forest growth and changes in weather patterns among other things. The setup also sounds pretty artificial in that it uses IR heaters, which aren't the same as genuine warming. They should start by warming the ocean around Puerto Rico :)

sukietawdry • 5 months ago

Roe collected leaves from the plots, dried them out in the lab, and then returned them to the plots randomly.

I don't understand. Won't drying out the leaves slow down the rate of decomposition?

Jack Amok • 5 months ago

Perhaps the scientist is a vegan and doesn't know about beef jerky.

stablesort • 5 months ago

There was the obverse experiment back east where they scraped the snow off of the ground to simulate lower snowfall due to higher temperature. However, they neglected to heat the air above the bare soil, so the cold winter air really froze the ground solid and did a real job on bacteria, etc.

Result of the study, global warming reduces soil fertility due to lack of snow cover.

Doctor Weasel • 5 months ago

Which is why people need to be skeptical when some journalist/activist says "Science!"

George Atkisson • 5 months ago

We can, and should, argue over the theory and execution of this experiment. The reaction of the MSM/Greenies will be the same:

HERESY! Blocked, unfollowed, deleted, deplatformed!

Dr__P • 5 months ago

Models are wrong
- bad theory
- bad results

rbeccah • 5 months ago

Once again we are not going to die from catastrophic global warming hysteria.

socratease • 5 months ago

Most climate change models predict that as the world warms, all of that biomass will decompose more quickly

No, the models can't "predict" that, it must be entered into the models as an assumption. Garbage in, garbage out.

Sam in Texas • 5 months ago

it doesn't agree with the models, therefore it is invalid and false

Brad Hobbs • 5 months ago

Popsicle sticks? Really?

Somebody is sure desperate to be called "doctor"

comatus • 5 months ago

Just before the conversion to digital plotting in archeology, they were indispensable on dig sites.

I'm sure there's a more expensive way to do it, but why?

Brad Hobbs • 5 months ago

That. . .is not what they were using them for

LiamB • 5 months ago

An incomplete poorly structured and poorly thought out project. Fails to account for all the impacts of warming which includes MORE water vapor in the air. Artificial heaters DRY the air and the materials.

15-20 yrs ago research reported in agricultural and environmental journals indicated increased CO2 uptake and growth of plants. It also indicated that NW and Europe would benefit from higher temps allowing crops to be grown further north and or longer periods.

And in all this the idiots only capture a tiny fraction of the information needed because they are incapable of thinking through all the interactions that are occurring.

Thinkabodit: cold soda, hot soda. cold oceans, warm oceans. CO2 solubility is highly dependent on the temp of the oceans. As oceans warm for whatever reason more CO2 is released to the atmosphere. A 1 C rise in just the top 10m can release 29 BILLION tons of CO2.

LarryD • 5 months ago

Greenhouses still enrich the carbon dioxide to encourage growth.

Jquip • 5 months ago

But the seance is settled!

nrer • 5 months ago

busy work for credentialed clowns

steelframe • 5 months ago

HNNNJKHKJHKJHKJHKThe site consists of
three hexagonal plots of land enclosed by a ring of infrared heaters
raised four meters above the ground, and three more plots enclosed by
fake heaters that are used as the "control" forest.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2019-...
The site consists of
three hexagonal plots of land enclosed by a ring of infrared heaters
raised four meters above the ground, and three more plots enclosed by
fake heaters that are used as the "control" forest.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2019-...

Jack Amok • 5 months ago

Seriously? They installed fake heaters on the control site? So the dead leaves wouldn't know...

Propertius • 5 months ago

Which probably produces a very different effect (particularly on humidity and therefore soil moisture and decomposition) than overall atmospheric warming in a tropical rain forest located on an island. I think it's a really bad experimental design. Space heaters are going to knock down the relative humidity and accelerate drying. General atmospheric and ocean warming certainly wouldn't do that.

egg0 • 5 months ago

Ms. Roe may turn into an unperson on her campus, or, even worse, an enemy of the people.

steelframe • 5 months ago

"The site consists of three hexagonal plots of land enclosed by a ring of infrared heaters raised four meters above the ground, and three more plots enclosed by fake heaters that are used as the "control" forest."

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2019-...

Placebo? Jedi mind trick?

BillR • 5 months ago

James Lovelock’s original Gaia hypotheses, much ‘cited’ but seldom read, was that the earth, as a system was homeostatic, meaning self-correcting, and not prone to runaway behavior. If this were not true, it would have been lost long, long ago during major disruptive events. Humans, even in ‘nuclear winter’ scenarios, haven’t anywhere near the catastrophic potential that major volcanic periods or large meteor strike have. And Lovelock was in general concerned, but trusted in The Gaia system’s resilience.

JDanaH • 5 months ago

Yes. In biology and nature in general, negative feedback loops dominate. But the catastrophic AGW hinges on runaway positive feedback effects.

bethbellkyle • 5 months ago

JDanaH 5+

Guest • 5 months ago
Jeff Gauch • 5 months ago

I like to point out that we're as much a part of nature as any other animal.

Chuck Pelto • 5 months ago

RE: As Expected — by Myself

"Tropical forests store about a third of Earth's carbon and about two-thirds of its above-ground biomass. Most climate change models predict that as the world warms, all of that biomass will decompose more quickly, which would send a lot more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. But new research presented at the American Geophysical Union's 2018 Fall Meeting contradicts that theory." -- Article at Link

Reasonable warming results in increased plant growth, which results in more carbon being taken up and made into plant matter.

Propertius • 5 months ago

As long as there are adequate nutrients in the soil and the water cycle isn't affected.

comatus • 5 months ago

Just at a quick glance, those are things this research seems to be looking into. We're sitting here bullshitting about what we suppose might happen. This junior scientist tried to find some new information worth knowing. I know! Let's stay on our fat asses and make fun of her!

Unmutual One • 5 months ago
Patrick Kelly • 5 months ago

Wow, what a poorly designed experiment. By artificially heating these areas in the forest, the experimenter has artificially reduced the relative humidity in their test area. Their conclusion is suspect when the supposition is that humidity will decline in a rainforest. This study should be rejected by any peer review board.

Now I'm no climate scientist, but I am a chemical engineer by training. This is fundamental thermodynamics. If this is any indication of their fundamentals in STEM, we should not believe anything they are promoting.

AnotherProf • 5 months ago

This. This experiment sounds like it was designed by a sixth grader for a science fair. The only positive aspect of it is that it was at least an attempt at a real experiment. In the climate study field they have corrupted the language to the point they call running unproved computer models “experiments” and the output “data”.

kimsch • 5 months ago

Also she concludes that the drier undergrowth, etc. are a result of more storms like Maria taking out the canopy and letting more sunlight reach the ground. But her samples are all pre-Maria.

Lamprey Wrangler • 5 months ago

Doesn't she know that under the new rules of "climate science" she was supposed to alter the findings to fit her preconceived notions? She's doing things the old, outmoded, wrong-think way -- using the now-irrelevant scientific method. Next thing, if she keep this up, she'll lose her grant funding and her "union card".

greatUnknown • 5 months ago

and any chance at obtaining a PhD

comatus • 5 months ago

Professor and Gilligan? Reminds me that a few years ago, the Presi-dean of a nearby Branch Campus community college went to a P.R. rain forest resort, wandered less than 100 yards off the tourist trail, and got so lost he almost died out there. He was licking rain from leaves, etc, when some perfectly normal tourists found him a few days later, very nearly given up for dead. He had everything but the soccer ball. As you'd guess, he never lived it down.

comatus • 5 months ago

OK, we'll start with the obvious first precept, all ecologists must die. And then, it's a university grad student, so kill her again. By the time you get to her being on your side and proving that the big movement has been wrong, she's practically de-composed already.

I have to say, I feel a little pity for anyone whose doctoral thesis research gets blown away in a storm; nobody mentioned "grants" but I have to wonder how provosts buy insurance for university research projects. Then, it's pretty clear that she doesn't really have the data set she wanted to build, to prove a point. I'd count it as pretty good research ethics if she builds a paper case with what's here to pitch for the funding to re-cast the question a little, and start over. "The usual suspects" are going to have to prevent that.

Neo • 5 months ago

Oliver Twist: Please, sir, I want some more.

James Moore • 5 months ago

Destroy the rain forests before they destroy us. Also Popsicle sticks. Apparently.