Nice! They can see my brothers and sisters now! Awesome.

This is great! It seems the next 6 months or so will be very interesting.

As long as they require an attentive driver,.and blame the driver for any accidents they should be fine.

True. But it’s at the price of getting to FSD quicker by learning scenarios when humans freak out (take over from autopilot) and correcting the self driving issues in an update.

No,you're not getting to anything quicker, you already have FSD,it doesn't drive you have to. It is easier to change the definition of FSD than to get autonomous features.

I know this is always said when an update comes out like this, but I’m continuously blown away that a car can do this. Want to get more Horsepower? Download it! See those little cones? Oh just download the update. I can’t wait to get my Tesla.
Downloading. Horsepower.

I am anxiously awaiting the next update that has the 5% power increase. Unlike my phone, which I hesitate to update, I’m excited to update my car.

I am still waiting for the flying car update.

Fine. But can it recognize Beldar, Prymaat, and Connie? And can it auto-detect nearby Baskin-Robbins?

I’m sure they’re working on it!

Inch by inch closer to FSD!

They'll say one day that they knew FSD was going to happen obviously. But we'll know the truth.

The certainty that improvements in computer performance and sensors and software will eventually lead to FSD is pretty clear. The timeline, not at all. Robotaxis in 2020, I don't see it. In 2200 I won't see it but seems pretty certain absent the collapse of civilization. In between, good luck picking a date.

Robotaxi 2020 is a straw man setup by FUD media. Watch what Elon said again. He said it *might* be so that in *some* jurisdictions Robotaxis start to operate. Elon was giving his stream of consciousness. When he said that there will be a 1 million Robotaxis, he clearly was referring to the potential capability. He said "the capability would be there" and the fleet "can wake up with a software update". That's more of a poetry if you ask me.

I don't believe we get to FSD by this year end. But I'm sure by next year FSD becomes feature complete. So it's merely a few month delay. Then it's a matter of optimizing the system. First they must get to a working prototype. A step beyond that would be to get super human reliability. And beyond that would be to get regulatory approval. These are separate steps that people not familiar with tech don't understand.

No, robotaxi 2020 was set up by Elon Musk. Saying "might" is perfectly fine and it is equally perfectly fine for me to say "might not" or "I don't see it". Not in "some jurisdictions" in the US, not in any is my guess.

I own a Model 3, I would love for Tesla to make FSD a reality, but it is a stretch to think it "might" be a reality in any jurisdiction in 2020 or, IMO, 2021 or 2022 and beyond that things get less clear.

I understand what feature complete means and I understand that it doesn't mean ready for no driver behind the wheel and I understand that that it is a bit more than "optimizing" that needs to be done once all the features are implemented.

I think cruising down the freeway AP already does much better job than me at a lot of the routine stuff and a really awful job at other stuff that humans have no problem managing. So despite what language we use I don't see a no driver behind the wheel Tesla FSD solution in any jurisdiction in the US in 2020 or well beyond. But that's just my opinion and I would love to be wrong.

"No, robotaxi 2020 was set up by Elon Musk."

There is one time at which Elon said that Tesla would have a million robotaxis by the end of 2020. This is nothing he has said at any other time. Almost certainly is was simply a verbal error, a single word was omitted.

Elon was totally aware that Teslas would not be cleared to operate independently by regulators by the end of 2020. Elon was totally aware that not every Tesla owner would allow their car to be used as a robotaxi. It makes zero sense to use that single statement as anything but a simple error while speaking.

The anti-Tesla forces are so desperate for Tesla to not succeed that they take this single grain of sand carried by an ant and attempt to turn it into a mountain.

It wasn't a verbal error. It just left room for correct interpretations. The "million robotaxis" are how many Teslas, with Autopilot 2 and above, would have been manufactured, by that time. He said also said, "...following regulatory approval." He's saying the software will be ready, but the government may not be, at that time (the end of 2020).

The regulatory approval “hurdle” is a straw man/smokescreen. There are currently no regulatory hurdles precluding full self driving, including unattended driving on any state or federal roadways. The Federal laws were changed last year to require FSD manufacturers to used diligence and scenario testing, but very specifically approved of using the technology without restriction. Few, if any, states have preclusions on self driving. They simply require all cars to follow state laws on the road, and for cars (not drivers) to be insured. The insurance industry will ultimately regulate/control FSD, not regulators.

Think internationally. For example, in Italy it is actually illegal to automatically adjust the set cruise control speed based on detected traffic signs. Tesla ignores that. Other car makers don't, so this feature gets disabled automatically when you cross the border. That is just one tiny example. There are hundreds. In general for many autonomous driving features (in EU) if there is no regulation in place to verify its safety then that feature is forbidden. Car makers are lobbying hard to overturn that law, but it is what is currently on the books.

Elon can speak for himself and correct himself.

Not sure what obtain you are referring to, it is reasonable to discuss/speculate Tesla’s no driver needed schedule

I would not equate them not having no driver needed working in 2020as a failure because I don’t expect it

Why should Elon go back and correct a mistake made long ago? He's said nothing similar at any other time.

This is nothing but anti-Tesla a-holes trying to create a problem for Tesla.

So you agree they won't have one robot taxi in the next two years.You sound upset.

Since I didn’t bring up the millions of robotaxis bit I’m not sure why you did.

On the Robotaxi timeline, I have no disagreement with you. As I said in different words, I only think that FSD would get feature complete by next year due to exponential improvement curve. But beyond that, it'll take ~ 2 years

Elon broke it down pretty interestingly in this earning's call: High speed autopilot + intermediate speed autopilot + low speed autopilot

It's a matter of adding traffic lights, stop signs, improving summon and creating a new auto parking feature. These are the sub goals they're working on currently. In the development version he said in the podcast with Lex that his car stops at lights and stop signs. He was also asked when Tesla would release Navigate on Street, to which he replied with " ;) ". Meaning, they're just finishing up the beta and it'll be soon.

After beta releases then comes "optimization" - which obviously would take a while differently in each case. Let's see how soon Tesla gets to FSD. One thing for sure, Tesla would get there first unless Elon's entire premise behind FSD strategy is wrong. What do you think?

My exponentially increasing number of edge cases and exponentially increasing difficulty beats your exponential improvement curve :)
I think the feature complete is the new coast to coast. When he declares feature complete it's impossible to disprove, coast to coast was too real! So yeah I fully expects Tesla to declare feature complete, but it's meaningless until we see if it really covers everything. I mean he already made so many caveats to what it means that it's meaningless... Sign reading is the first step on the way, really hope that's not to far away.

I think having the most vehicles on the street testing their neural network gives them a huge leg up

Tesla does not even currently read speed limit signs. My AP1 car can read signs, but my AP3 car cannot. Tesla lost a lot in the Mobileye transition, and is finding it tough to even recreate features they included in AP from four years ago.

Umm what? My Model 3 reads speed limit signs.

You always have to have an attentive driver, in other words,FSD ,is not full self driving. It is just advertising,Elon speak, he can't help it if some credulous fan boys thought he was serious,it's Elon!
The robo taxi is called Uber.

"Elon was giving his stream of consciousness."

It was a stream, alright - not sure it was "consciousness."

People who follow Tesla knows very well , announced date for FSD is goal ,not a promise, Traditional media hungry for headline always paint Tesla as a failure, may be this is strategy at Tesla, media headlines keeps competition dumb.

straw man setup by FUD media? LOL dude you know nothing, it's Elon's masterplan

https://electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/04/Screen-Shot-2019-04-22-at-4.34.27-PM.jpg?resize=1024,595

If it's always six months away it will never arrive, but Tesl customers have been paying for it for years.

That's nothing. Fusion power is 20 years away and has been for at least 60 years!

Yes,if someone,anyone anywhere has been late with engineering breakthrough,thatexcuses a CEO of a large company form blatantly lying bout FSD for the sole purpose of temporarily boosting the stock price.

You're a little quick to jump at a joke.

I don't think splitting FSD into discrete milestones has much to do with temporary stock price fluctuations and everything to do with booking revenue. By breaking FSD down into named parts Tesla actually can deliver soon, it lets Tesla book the revenue for those parts it delivers. So far, this seems to be working. It's a brilliant accounting trick with semi plausible cover as a set of engineering milestones. He has booked part of the revenue from FSD with no serious push back, even from the many short sellers. If he splits FSD into 4 parts, and delivers 3, can he book 75% of revenue even if the final (hard and interesting part) is not delivered at all or not in a timely manner?

I believe that Elon mentioned that the capability for FSD would exist for 2020, but that regulatory hurdles would be in the way until authorities are comfortable. Didn't say active robotaxis would be everywhere, he is just hoping one place might allow full FSD by year end. Dealing with the large army of regulators will be harder than designing FSD.

If the robotaxis doesn't get off the ground until 2021 or 2022, that is no big deal, as the potential fleet would be much much larger by then and augmented with even better hardware than HDW3.

Elon has laid out three steps to robotaxis.

1) All features needed for full self driving will be complete - but not perfected - late this year or early 2020.

2) The initial somewhat crude features will need up to a year of training, using data sent back from real world use.

3) Once Tesla's FSD is a working FSD system that allows cars to drive themselves it will take some time for regulators to approve its use without a human backup driver. Elon guesses that might take up to two years.

Tesla's robotaxis may be three years away. Probably not sooner, perhaps a bit later. Other companies that rely on detailed mapping may have robotaxis operating sooner but they will be geofenced into areas where maps have been built and where there are resources to keep them updated.

Not only that, but those other companies‘ robotaxis are > $150k each and have higher running costs.

"Dealing with the large army of regulators"

I think we should acknowledge the fact that this "army" is tasked with keeping drivers safe; the kind of people who wouldn't claim "highway cones are now recognized" after only testing with cones of one size.

My understanding is that NZ doesn't have any regulation that says you have to have a driver in a car

Yes, no big deal if it doesn't arrive in 2031 either.

Elon sys you have FSD now, you just have to pay attention, hope you're happy for $6K!

I believe he’s listed three levels:

1) Feature complete
2) Tesla thinks it is safe to be unattended
3) regulators think it is safe to be unattended

Seems like their target for #1 is this year, followed by #2 in 2020 with maybe like a relatively easy to drive and self-driving progressive city like Phoenix as a robotaxi trial. My guess is 2021 is when we’ll really see Robotaxi more widely.

At best perhaps a city or two permitting Tesla robotaxis by the end of 2021. There's a good chance we won't see wide use by the end of 2022. There's likely to be very strong opposition from those who operate on emotions rather than facts.

Yes, people like the fossil fool troll Leonidas will continue to be up in arms over this or any other progress made by Tesla for the betterment of humans and the environment.

Paid robo taxis in Ls Vegas today.

Waymo ,GM,Ford,Otto,Aurora,Zooks,Uber,APTIV.Their FSD will allow no-one in the driver's seat.

This is a HW3 specific update for now.

I don’t think that’s accurate (see reply below).