https://twitter.com/webberw...

Jack Sillin@JackSillin·4m
Eric makes a good point here - despite significant uncertainty regarding the specific evolution of this tropical wave, an extremely favorable environment is likely to set up in the western Caribbean early next week.

Means that this one is worth watching closely.

Too early in the runs for me to get stressed out, but I will definitely keep an eye on this one. Question, is EURO better for track when compared to the GFS?

It was the best for track a few years ago. Not sure if it still is.

https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

https://uploads.disquscdn.c...https://www.accuweather.com...

This is my opinion but there’s no way it busts through that high pressure. Easy to see the weakness left behind by Fiona . https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

Hi, all. New post:

https://yaleclimateconnecti...

12Z Euro onboard with 2nd Carib system

https://www.tropicaltidbits...

timelapse from just now in toronto

https://www.youtube.com/wat...

Fiona is the best looking cat 1 there is. I think the NHC underestimated her strength since she left PR. She cleared out an eye and looks to have hit cat 2 in the Mona Passage.

I don't know, IR doesn't show the eye clearing as much as visible. Still looks better than a few hours ago though.
https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

She was still likely a category 1 in the Mona Passage and her landfall in the DR. Her structure did degrade briefly before reintensifying slightly before landfall, but I don't think she ever strengthened to a category 2 hurricane at any time after her PR landfall

Hard to say. Recon was looong gone by the time she was clearing an eye on the passage.

Just because she was clearing an eye, doesn't mean she was a category 2. She strengthened, sure, but I doubt it was up to a 2. There's not really any definitive proof she got any stronger than the 80kts she did before landfall.

GFS takes the wave in the Atlantic to the western Gulf, passing south of a trough... Not sure about that.

Not sure about that either, I can see it getting caught by the trof and following what ever weakness is there left by Fiona

https://www.tropicaltidbits...

Up,over,out and irrelevant.Next (could add some decent ACE though).

Two weeks past the statistical peak.

2 fish, one lobster, one gumbo

97L goes-16.vis.2km.97L.INVEST.25kts.1014mb.28.7N.46.3W. Looks like ship trails on the east and southeast side? https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

This is probably late but the NHC finally tagged it https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

Vary

How strong will Fiona get?
A 1
B 2
C 3
D 4
E 5

Yep. It's strengthening.

C cat 3

Cat 4

I need to see the next recon pass to make an opinion. I think 5 is very much in the cards. The OHC NW of the Bahamas is very high. Higher than where it is now.

Definitely. 4 or 5 for me. Leaning toward a four but this says 5.. It's got that blob off FL to feed on, the RI shield on the east side and eventually baroclinic forcing. https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

C. Cat 3

gonna be a cat 5 like dorian but further east

Cat 4

Likely be a 3 in no time, by the looks of it.

E cat 5

D.

cat 4 hurricane!!

That area just east of the Caribbean is getting its self dressed up pretty fast .
https://www.tropicaltidbits...

***not an official forecast, follow the NHC please NOT ME!- I took some cbd and ashwaganda and went into a deep meditative trance- needless to say- what I saw was quite the spook halloween style. This is the area highlighting coming into the carib. https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

Right..

Right NE turn of dread, my friend

Ouija Boards are very tricky- the ghosts often lie- which means you can't trust their forecasts. Also some try to harm you so it is very dangerous. Never do it without closing the portal and energy of spirit guardian angels protecting you first.

That's what I came up with but I just had a donut.

2 people saw the same thing in trance then- my friend this is getting scarier by the minute

I'm in Sarasota so right there with you. Irma was my last hurricane.

Based on these deep trip with cbd and ashwaganda, me and WGC really need to watch this closely.

The Tampa shield will hold!

the spirit guides- benevolent and truthful in their nature- tell me the shields have fallen, and have failed, meaning we are no longer safe from natures tempests

My adviser has failed me.