TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

New post!

https://yaleclimateconnecti...

Yay!

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The eyewall replacement cycle in Hinnamnor continues:

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Well the NAVGEM is blowing that smoke!

https://www.tropicaltidbits...

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar...

Danielle just chilling next to Ireland as a 976mb storm lol

Someone take out the maximum theoretical charts again

Is that Danielle approaching Ireland?

It sure is and she will at least provide some good ACE. Now the real ACE king looks like Earl. The NAVGEM is certainly overdone with Earl, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that Earl peaks at cat. 3 considering the warm anomalies in the subtropics and it would also be moving in the direction of any southwesterly windshear.

It's the cat 5 for me

Probably lacks the ocean-coupling, it would lose the OHC at that latitude, more than likely would be on a weakening trend. I think the best chance for strengthening is between 25N - 35N as it recurves right of Bermuda.

I agree. I just think it's funny lol

Recon not reporting again lol

nothing interesting going on anyways lol

10 days away, but that would be an intense hurricane for the Eastern Atlantic MDR.

https://www.tropicaltidbits...

Has to be a glitch or something Lol a borderline major a little east of the CV islands, doubt

yahs (yet another huge southerly)

great big puffs comin in right now - the solar heating is stirring things up

This massive multi-low low in the north Atlantic west of the British Iles is pretty crazy. Will it absorb Danielle?

Would be interesting, but models have been suggesting the massive low would get absorbed into a large trough over Europe before the possible arrival of Danielle (whether Danielle or whatever it becomes makes it to Europe very much remains an open question). Something to keep an eye on as medium-range reliability is a little low atm.

Synopsis from ESTOFEX's Storm Forecast (Valid: Sun 04 Sep 2022 06:00 to Mon 05 Sep 2022 06:00 UTC Issued: Sun 04 Sep 2022 00:36)
https://www.estofex.org/
"Two large, pronounced and stationary mid-level lows over European Russia and just W of the British Isles are the dominant features on the 500 hPa weather maps. In-between, a highly amplified mid-level ridge stretches from Algeria towards Norway.
At the surface, a first autumnal outbreak of polar air has invaded the NE-ern half of Europe in the wake of the Russian cyclone, whereas the Atlantic cyclone keeps subtropic air in place in the SW-ern half. The frontal zone between these contrasting air masses acts as a cold front over SW Russia, Georgia and Turkey, where it terminates a record-breaking late heat wave. Between Turkey and the North Sea, it starts getting warm-active again with increasing warm air advection ahead of the Atlantic cyclone." (italics added)

https://twitter.com/extreme...

Are there forecasts available to indicate what kind of winter Europe can expect?

Of course, but they're just not that reliable yet.

The days will grow short.

20n 38w strong vorticity. What's there??

lol 20N already too far N to catch my attention ^^

My only way of knowing our temperature and humidity: App for our solar panels shows current temperature, and our attic fan has a humidity index. Not accurate, I’m sure, but having been outside it seems like it’s at least close. This is in Orange County, about 14 miles from the ocean.

Temp on the roof: 104
Humidity in the attic: 37%

It’s partly cloudy, with the tiniest of a breeze.

Thankfully it is a Sunday, so not as many people working outdoors, and I guess a lighter load on the grid from a workday. However, CAISO issued an alert:

Sunday, 09/04/2022 from 05:00 PM to 08:00 PM, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) has declared an Energy Emergency Alert Watch Notice due to anticipated operating reserve deficiencies and may require additional energy resources to avoid an emergency.

I noticed a peculiar feature in today's heat in socal. There's a line from Fullerton, through Long Beach, to Palos Verdes where the Temps are 10-12 hotter than the inland empire-readings as high as 109.

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Undressing again?

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And still moving West.

We have a male stripper on our hands

Earl the nekkid Swirl

yeppi can i strip has well

Ummmm, NO

dran it would have help it be come a cat 5 lol

TD 12E in the EPAC

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Compared to Danielle, Earl's looking scruffy.

Hmm those convections, good thing it's only sept 4 lol

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It's thundering nicely

All we have here is 80+% humidity. Like soup. Nice breeze if you are at the beach, but blocked by trees inland.

:(

went me add raining sharks

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Yep, 65W looks to be about right, it's not supposed to go much farther west than that, we shall see... https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

Where the hell have you been? lol

I got irritated with a few people on here so I had to back away for awhile. I don't have as much time on my hands now either, I'm about to start homeschooling my kids so I might just post a couple of times a day.

i hop it was not me lol