The model is terribly flawed. I still cannot understand how the army of "experts" did not kick the tires and spot the obvious errors. As I've posted in other spots, even a cursory review of the state/state figures would show that this is little better than a SWAG. State/state estimated daily deaths proceed in a stepwise fashion--totally unlike any regression or more sophisticated model with which I am familiar.

Even simple things like the graphs showing the "peak" death day by state do not match the underlying figures in the model. It appears that instead of a true predictive model, Murray et. alia took some data from Italy and China to determine likely date from the first reported case and/or death to derive a "peak" death date. The latter was modified likely by such factors as density, degree of mass transit usage and whether the area was a major travel hub. This then informed the original predictions of hospital beds, with inaccurate percentage forecasts of: 1)how many cases would result in a hospital stay, 2) how many hospital stays would develop into ICU, and 3) how many of the ICU patients would require a ventilator. All of these percentages were off, substantially.

Meanwhile we are sacrificing our freedom of worship, assembly, and pursuit of business. The cost to our economy has not yet been calculated, but most opine that we'll have a major contraction in 2Q GDP and contraction in 3Q. This does not include the initial costs of various federal programs to ameliorate the financial pain for individuals and businesses. Who can yet calculate the eventual medium and long term impacts for inflation and growth--and other metrics. I've not even included the impact on savings and American's investments, nor the value of their homes.

Our 2019 GDP was in excess of $24T dollars. Fauci, Birx and their colleagues tell us that we'll lose 60,000 to COVID-19. Again, who knows how many other deaths will occur due to delayed "elective" procedures or suicides and drug related deaths from those in despair. The human cost cannot be calculated. But even if we only lose $2-4T of GDP as a result of this shutdown, that equates to an implicit valuation of each COVID fatality well in excess of eight figures. None of us wants to think of these decisions in these terms--it violates our idea of the sanctity of life--and I agree with that. But I include it here to try to place these serious decisions in some proportion. It is shocking, and unbelievable that we have allowed ourselves to be put in this place--and there are some that argue for up to 18 months of shutdown.

And notice that the "model" authors pay absolutely no price for their "errors"

Well put. A good bit of my tech career dealt with models of multiple kinds. The level of effort, checking, revising, and rechecking both a model and the data provided as input to end up with credible predictions is in practice enormous, takes a lot of time, and requires both technical expertise and a boat-load of common sense. Well done, one can come up with a model that can provide good diagnostics of a real system, or plausible predictions of future behavior in very short order.

I say plausible, because in practice all models are wrong, because details are always omitted to make the models tractable and affordable to develop, especially when part of the model pertains to capturing aspects of a real natural environment which has myriad variables that, unlike in vitro experiments, cannot be controlled. Empirical evidence is the final arbiter, not what some modeler programs into a computer.

If one simply grabs pre-existing models off the rack and feeds them assumptions based on prior observations and personal biases, you get what we've observed regarding COVID-19 - Garbage In, Garbage Out.

This episode will go down as one of the great scientific transgressions of the past century, right up there with the misuse/abuse of operations research to guide policy in the Vietnam War and the opportunistically politicized models of the Great Climate Change Hoax.

GIGO!
Garbage in, GARBAGE out as we used to say!
Still true today, is it not?

John von Neumann had a pretty good bead on the problem.

the army of experts in composed solely of the deep state. This farce was started by China in retribution for the Trump tariffs that sent their economy into recession. It is the biggest hoax the world has ever seen, but it proves to you that the Leftist globalist will resort to anything to force continued globalization on us.

I still claim climate change is the biggest hoax. Of course, it was entirely predict that Obama would try to link the Corona virus to climate change.

True, the world has been about to end since before the time of Christ. Prognosticators on their soapboxes screaming to cause panic. Hole in the ozone, rising oceans, ice age, hot age, you name it, it never comes to pass.

EXACTLY!!! The COMMUNIST Chinese have been tinkering with this *Coronavirus in their Bio-Warfare Labs like for ages already!!! FIRST they were able to create those other TWO Mutations of the Coronavirus *SARS and *MERS now they cooked up this *COVID-19...... Then they released it so as to get REAL WORLD TESTING of it, see it's EFFICACY???

Tbgr. The Chinese blame us for infecting them. You and the Chinese govt are on equal footing with your competing conspiracy theories.

You said it better than I could. I found the stats in the link below of daily death rates broken down by cause from 200-2007

From the 6740 average daily deaths, the number attributed to Influenzas & pneumonia was small, only 144 but and the vast majority were the normal killers - conditions related to the heart & cancers. These figures are almost certainly collected from state death records based on death certificates signed by the doctor. So something is wrong with the models -- deaths in primarily the elderly that would likely normally be attributed to heart disease or cancer look like their being attributed to caronavirus. Drs. have objected to directives that they declare cause of death to be the virus when all they know with certainty is cardiac arrest. Opportunistic infections such as bacterial pneumonia are often present in the elderly when they die, I lost my dad at 89 last fall and the cause was his heart which had slowed down like an old clock & the brain and other organs slowly failed due to low blood pressure, He had a persistent bacterial infection in his lungs and was getting IV antibiotics until we stopped everything to let him slip into a very typical death.

There is a compassionate angle too -- what Dr. wants to attribute death to a serious virus like COviD-19 in an old person with a history of heart problems and while it probably did contribute to death they can't be sure. If grandma has the virus but is generally ok until she dies in the middle of the night, who would want the family to feel guilty for not rushing her to the hospital? To me death is often a long decline rather than a sudden event - my dad had been declining steadily for about 6-8 mons.

Death Stats 2001-2008 (frm. San Jose State study)
http://applet-magic.com/mor...

my dad had been declining steadily for about 6-8 mons.>>>>>>>>>>>> HECK!!!! SOME OF US MORBIDLY OBESE FAT LARD @$$ES HAVE BEEN DECLINING FOR 40-50-YEARS??? YEAH! YEAH!! OH YEAH!!!!!!

And all these government jackwagons are still getting a paycheck while millions face poverty because of them.....not a flue virus.

Not a flu virus either, genius. :)

It appears that Redfield (CDC) and Birx have quite a history. Back in the 1990's they used HIV money to put together a vaccine. It had almost passed until a scientist tried to recreate the vaccine and could not. It was garbage. Yet the federal government covered this up. Just like Democrats, failure was rewarded and now these two are running the CDC. More garbage yet this time their destruction is tenfold.

Most importantly is that we should not believe the death numbers anymore. On 3/23 the CDC changed how Covid19 deaths would be tallied. Anyone who died, was not tested but was remotely in the vicinity of covid19 could be counted as such. It's no wonder we see the democrat states death level skyrocketing. The death tolls are as fraudulent as Birx and Redfield.

Time to end this charade and get our country back to work. Open this all up on Easter as promised Mr. President.

4 of 4
So the lock-down is unnecessary, and is causing more harm than good, including to our lifespan. We already have people working at Costco and in grocery stores, and the world isn’t coming to an end. People should be allowed to work in other businesses as well, with reasonable precautions adapted for each type of business. Many people can continue working from home, but some people can’t.

I’ll also note that the politicians who implement these lock-downs, as well as the experts who call for them and the media that fear-mongers in support of them, are largely a class of people who aren’t going to lose their own jobs. They are forcing others to make sacrifices that they themselves aren’t making.

In terms of the virus, the main thing to avoid is a collapse of the health care system, and it appears we have successfully done that. Next we need to prevent a collapse of the economy, which would probably be even more deadly. So let’s allow people to get back to work..

Then it must be that PT is hanging out too much with these charlatans, because yesterday he was saying 'if we did shut-down most everything, 'hundreds of thousands', would of died. Fact based or a hero projection?

He had NO choice if you really truly want him to hang around for another four years? OR would you prefer that very very CORRUPT Old Late Stage Old Age DEMENTIA suffering Child-molesting HAIR-SNIFFING OLD FREAK Old Creepy Uncle Joe BiteMe to gets in there???

The Dems are gonna run Cuomo. Biden is out. Not official yet, but the news is everywhere.

But Cuomo is only so-so in terms of handling the virus, and before it came along, he and the Dims had run NYState into storm drain. I can't see him getting elected. We'll see.

PT is going to have to be politically artful in the 180 degree turn around, especially since Fauci is personally friends with CNN's Acosta and ABC's Karl. But who is this hair sniffing, creepy old goat you refer to? KAG!

You forgot panty sniffing.

Now that we've established that the cure is worse than the disease, there is only one rational course of action: protect the vulnerable as best as we can, knowing that there is no perfection achievable, and let our people get back to their lives.

And, next time we see the Fauci and Birx act, it would be appropriate if they were fitted with face masks in the shape of duck bills.

What should we expect from people who've spent their careers feeding at the government trough? Fauci's a big Hitlary supporter, which calls into question his basic judgement, if not his sanity! Of course we should expect him to take the path of most potential damage to Trump. Also, despite being a medical doctor, he hasn't practiced in the REAL world since the 80s! People in his position should be rotated out and replaced with those having current experiences actually dealing with medical issues as a PRACTICING physician, not as a government bureaucrat.

DAVID, SORRY! I was not able to attend our Regular Morning Coffee Klatch at your house??? Can only HOPE thahttps://www.foxnews.com/... someday somehow y'all find it in y'all heart to forgives my Fat Lard @$$???? SAD they took EASTER away from us!!!!!

I'm sorry to say my conclusions on this whole thing are that the "pandemic" pushed by these people, including the Democrats and the MSM, has proven to be a gigantic fraud on the country, and the world.

When the truth eventually comes out, and we discover that this virus is no worse than the seasonal flu that comes every year, it will become clear this was all political, and nothing but an effort, once again, to get rid of Trump.

The Devil himself could not have arranged a better fraud upon our country, destroying the economy and millions of lives in the process. These people are evil.

We could never have pulled it off without the dork kings blessing...we are so grateful

What did Obama have to do with this?

The obama appointees have wildly succeeded! They have brought the best economy in world history to its' knees. Have destroyed major parts of the US, and harmed millions of lives and livelihoods....many being Trump supporters. They. Must. Go. Today.

They did not fail. They succeeded in what Democrats want: Destruction of American Workers and the economy Trump built. Put Americans on welfare where they can be controlled. Everyone in the government, medical, and media complex will get paid no matter how wrong they are. Pensions will be paid until they pass away, safe in their beds at their vacation homes on the beach.

With 'Regular Joe" flu, 40,000 to 60,000 can die every year but with CaronaFlu, 15,000 deaths is sufficient to destroy the lives, jobs, savings, homes, businesses, and more of working Americans. Without working Americans paying taxes and running business that supply everything we need, we are only left with the government, medical, and media vultures who will wonder where everything went and why the dollars in which they keep getting paid with are no longer worth the paper they are printed on.
F what the G/M/M highly paid doomsday vultures say. Open the economy back up or burn the motha down.

Well stated.

Those are our DRs not Trumps....of course they do our bidding....they convinced the very stable genius to torch his own economy...what does Pence say every day..."President Trumps 30-day plan to defeat the virus"...lol....and they timed it perfect....we will be roaring back to life jsut after trump is defeated....we jsut hope 35% unemployment is enough to convince you hayseeds not to vote

Go feed your cats you obese unmarried middle aged spinster troll!

Only a fool would think that anything comes "roaring back" if run by people bent on policies that would destroy it in the first place... free college, public-run healthcare, guaranteed wages for those who cannot or will not work, New Green Deal mandates on housing, manufacturing, transportation... how's that "global citizen" stuff working out? Pah- leeze... do you lemmings believe you will be immune from common suffering and 70% tax rates (oh, that's only on the people that contribute)? Do you already have a low number in the bread line your precious leftists tell you you're entitled to out of "fairness" and "equality" and pick your own gender? Sure, let's elect drooling Joe Biden, or that whining failure Cuomo and get back to the new normal of off-shoring businesses and millions more in poverty and food stamps and race riots fueled by those in power. Let's expand Obamacare which put an extra tax on medical devices that sent suppliers offshore and that you now blame Trump for not having enough of?

Keep warm in your hate, because your thinking won't cover you.

I think part of the problem is that the experts like Fauci & Birx don't themselves seem to have expertise in creating statistical models so deflect questions about them and certainly give the appearance of falling into the argument from authority - we're experts & you're not. I'm not saying they're doing it intentionally or in bad faith but that's the impression created. Millions of Americans are educated enough in math and statistical methods & theory to raise valid questions and criticism to epidemiological models. I think the datasets are all public on the CDC site and someone with the time & knowledge could likely cull any questionable cases from the data in hopes of getting a more accurate view of the epidemic. Maybe our experts have done that but I haven't seen any explanation or notification related to the issue.

It's also a fact that millions of Americans have extremely complex, critical jobs that must be done precisely or bad consequences will happen to their employers. So we are entitled to a straight answer to - goddammit have you done your job here, and don't bullsh!t us because our lives are on hold? I am not sure at all we're getting a straight answer, but have a large class of elitist experts who think they can bullsh!t us and get away with it because we are too dumb to figure it all out.

"Dr. Fauci Now Says Coronavirus Models Did Not Drive National Health Policy…"
https://theconservativetree...

"Dr. Anthony Fauci: National Immunity ID Cards May Be Needed…"
https://theconservativetree...

"Kentucky Democrat Governor Orders Police to Photograph License Plates At Easter Church Services – Will Then Enforce Home Imprisonment…"https://theconservativetree...

"Spot Someone Not Wearing a Mask? Snitching on Your Neighbors? Now There’s an APP For That…"
https://theconservativetree...

Adding Michigan Gov. Whitmer forced Home Depot to block purchase of vegetable seeds!

Even Mike Bloomberg knows you need seeds.

https://www.google.com/sear...

Hmmmmm!!!! SURE LOOKS MIGHT FAMILIAR EyeProvidence???? LOL!!!!

The CDC has failed us. Hats off to the private sector and the US military.

A 1000% on target article, as all Ms. Kelly's recent writings have been. It is time to put the health geeks back in their box, and get on with the needs of the country.

The Precautionary Principle is deeply embedded in USA regulations and policy, especially since the 90’s.
Apparently, the Precautionary Principle works very well on starting Mass Hysterias; but, total fail on prevention.
Don’t know how the Federal government could have over-ruled city and state stay-at-home (SaH) orders, or what models they used.
When Pres. Trump reveals his Back-to-Work (BtW) Team on Tuesday, April 14, the three doctors will be absent, or six feet away.

My notes from March 30 & 31 IHME model http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
showed NY & NJ accounted for almost the entire USA‘hospital/ICU bed shortage’, which made many state’s SaH orders seem odd.
Drs. Fauci and Adams seem to be ‘scaring into compliance’.
When I have watched the WH Briefing, Dr. Birx does try to explain what they don’t know without admitting what they don’t know.

Singapore is a densely populated city-state, with visitors from every part of Asia. Like NYC, without the corruption, or garbage; NYC has residents and visitors from every part of the world. The WH certainly knew what just happened in Singapore:

Updated Apr 8, 2020, 11:29 am by Danson Cheong: SINGAPORE - Most workplaces will be closed from next Tuesday (April 7 –[May 4]) and all schools will move to full home-based learning a day later, as Singapore puts in place a "circuit breaker" to pre-empt escalating coronavirus infections, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. […]"Initially [Jan.23], many of the new cases were imported from overseas, mostly returning Singaporeans. Then last week, we began to have more local cases. Furthermore,despite our good contact tracing, for nearly half of these cases, we do not know where or from whom the person caught the virus," he said. […] to pre-empt escalating infections. We will therefore impose significantly stricter measures. This is like a circuit breaker,"
[…] PM Lee also said the Government would no longer discourage people from wearing face masks, in what he described as a re-think on the issue. Previously, the Government encouraged only those who were unwell to wear face masks, if for instance they left home to see a doctor. But with signs that the virus is spreading in the community, wearing a mask “may help to protect others”, if the wearer was asymptomatic, he said, adding that the Government will distribute reusable face masks to all households from this Sunday (April 5). […]
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/most-workplaces-to-close-schools-will-move-to-full-home-based-learning-from-next

The report pointed out the need to have two 14-day cycles under lockdown, to better assess WTH is happening. Most new cases were ‘guest workers’, mostly from India, ex-pat ‘guest workers’ who build & maintain, everything from Saudi Arabia to Singapore.

Singapore-based Straits Times is the best news source I have ever read, real reporting.
Don't expect post-writer pundits anywhere in USA to read StraitsTimes, but, the WH ABSOLUTELY does.

Yes but is a maximalist approach always best in the face of a long shutdown of the economy leading to mass layoffs, loss of homes, cars, businesses, all savings & wealth that families had built for years?

My date for re-starting America's economy is April 27, for most states, to celebrate April 27, 1959 when Mao Zedong resigned as Chairman of the PRChina after the disastrous failure of the Great Leap Forward.
Very easy to quarantine NYC, mostly a city of islands. However, Singapore is of great concern. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong must have seen a serious failure in their contact tracing system to finally order a total, mask-wearing, stay-at-home. Contact tracing WILL be necessary for USA to re-start.
Repeating: the Precautionary Principle (PP) works very well on starting Mass Hysterias; but, total fail on prevention. C19 stay-at-home is a good example of PP run amok, e.g. Gov Cuomo's "if we save one life..." [insert eyeroll]
Before the Precautionary Principle (PP) became a DEEP embed in America's regulatory structure, quarantines were for the contagious sick. In 1969, I was quarantined for measles morbillivirus (MeV), had to take final exams from home, missed HS graduation ceremony. The MeV vaccine was very new. Never knew if anyone else at my HS of 4,800 students got that measles, but, it was severely overcrowded due to the Cuban airlifts in 1967-68. The building capacity was 2,400, and I do remember wedged like a sardine in the staircases. My doctor even came to the house to confirm measles -THAT's a quarantine.

Still surprised when the mayor here issued a lockdown to start March 25, when there were 10 cases in a county of 400,000, and major teaching hospital. That triggered Gov. Cooper to finally issue NC statewide lockdown, starting March 27, end-date April 29 subject to change. Cooper facing a tough re-election in 2020.

So, I have to finally mow my lawn today (serious rain on Sunday). My reward will be to watch the 1981 BBC 6-hour dvd of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. The Guide's title is Don't Panic :) :) B&N has that dvd on sale for $9.99.

SEOUL -- South Koreans will cast their ballots in a general election on Wednesday [April 15],
choosing the 300 lawmakers who will serve in the National Assembly for the next four years. [...]
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/South-Korea-election/Five-things-to-know-about-South-Korea-s-general-election

In-person Voting started Friday April 10; World's first Pandemic Election
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/virus-helps-bury-controversy-in-south-korea-s-pandemic-election

Both the US and UK have changed the goal-posts recently for death-count and infection-count, which are artifically keeping the numbers pumped-up. These "tweaks" stop us from analysing a trend properly, which would otherwise show a slowing growth-rate.

Then we have Sweden who is taking a sensible approach to the virus, basically social distancing and wash your hands etc. Their growth rate is no worse than the majority of western countries which renders the state enforced House Arrest utterly pointless - or so it seems.

And then there's Wuhan's Virology Lab, the only level 4 lab of its kind in China. So Localtion Zero is the same place as a level 4 virology lab. Now there's a coincidence.

And finally the biggy...

Magic vaccine.

The word is a vaccine is desperately being worked on, yet China did not have vaccine, nor South Korea - and their lockdowns are being rolled back. I'm reading headlines in British media that restrictions could stay in place until a vaccine is found - the implication being that we'll be forced to be vaccinated. I'll pass.

Given Denmark's just legislated for forced vaccinations in the home by police, we are entering dark times.

This is all getting a bit 1984 for my liking.

Something's afoot.

Republican governor of Texas Greg Abbott said he plans to allow businesses to reopen with an executive order that would lift the coronavirus lockdown in a "safe" way.

Abbott said Texas, which would be the world's 11th largest economy it were an independent country, could find a balance between personal safety and economic security.

"We will focus on protecting lives while restoring livelihoods," Abbott said on Friday at a news conference.

"We can and we must do this. We can do both, expand and restore the livelihoods that Texans want to have by helping them return to work. One thing about Texans, they enjoy working and they want to get back into the workforce. We have to come up with strategies on how we can do this safely."

SEE: https://www.bizjournals.com...

But the Democrats see a path to victory in November if they can just keep the economy shut down until early summer and have the Greatest Depression Ever by fall. Absolutely no doubt about it. President Trump has his work cut out for him to get the country back to work. Perhaps the Texas governor's announcement today will be a catalyst, if three or four others like DeSantis in Florida do the same. The problem Florida has is the unholy trio of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties which shut down on their own, and even with a less than 1% infection rate and low number of deaths they'll refuse to go back to normal.

Congress should suspend their pay and benefits while the country is shutdown. They (and their immediate families) should be barred from any stock market activity while the country is shutdown.

Tired of this stupidSHIT and the overblown, overyhyped CHINKDISEASE.

#KAG
#CHINKS_GTFO
#BUILDTHEWALL

All three need to be fired, retired and not allowed to be hired by any anti-Trump network (what I think they are all working for now).

The moral: "If it sounds too bad to be true, it probably is."

I blame TRUMP first and foremost.
It is the PRESIDENT's job to seek out, and weigh, ALL information.
NOT just information from the so-called "experts."
But certainly from a DIVERSITY of "experts."

Problem is, TRUMP has shoved doctors DOOM and GLOOM out to front and center...to effectively set national policy.

But setting national policy is the PRESIDENT's job.
But THIS president has abdicated that role.

We are being RULED by those myopic, tunnel-vision "experts"...
arbitrarily picked by DONALD TRUMP.
.