Disqus - Latest Comments for yetanothersteve

Re: The ugly number in Apple's earnings

yetanothersteve — Mon, 20 Oct 2014 19:34:02 -0000

The real story is Mac! Growing faster than iPhone, most PC share since 1995, outselling (by revenue) iPads. Both MacBook Air and iPhone 6 / 6+ are constraining the iPad market.

This is actually a financial win for Apple.

Note that MS isn't selling the Surface agains the iPad, but against MBA. MBA now has just as much battery life as iPad.

And it would be a ludicrous strategy to protect iPad from this cannibalization--make each product the best it can be and let customers decide which they want.

And this is a dumb dumb dumb story because of its lack of context.

The story is Mac is back! Who knew?

Re: How big is Apple’s Ecosystem?

yetanothersteve — Wed, 30 Jul 2014 21:33:37 -0000

That's an absolutely stunning collapse in music sales in a short period of time. While there's been plenty of talk about a shift to streaming (maybe enabled by LTE?) I've never seen numbers... and never seen adjectives that would describe the numbers my eyeballs seem to see (like off by 2/3.) Hard to believe that streaming services are making up for the loss of revenue to the music industry either. Are you sure of your numbers?

Likewise it would imply that Apple has lost its position as #1 US music retailer, unless physical music sales have collapsed similarly rather than continue their long term decline.

Re: Mommy Police With Real Handcuffs

yetanothersteve — Tue, 22 Jul 2014 02:47:43 -0000

You know what's dangerous? Having your child sit at home instead of playing outdoors in the park. Obesity in childhood... and it's effects later in life... that's not made up stuff or a health problem way down the list.

At age 9 my mom would have kicked me out of the house... to play in the neighborhood (no park was a short walk away.) Because staying inside and sedentary isn't healthy. She was right.

Re: Why the Beatles' bootleg 1963 album is coming to iTunes Tuesday

yetanothersteve — Mon, 16 Dec 2013 05:26:02 -0000

I want to own a copy of the music precisely because due to rights and whatnot the subscription services will never be comprehensive. I've got stuff on vinyl that never made it to CD, stuff on CDs that never made it to iTunes.

The streaming services can only license, and licenses expire. (Netflix is the most instructive example--lots of good content but no guarantee any item will be there on demand.) And personally I don't mind paying a buck or so for that copy--it's a lot cheaper than when I had to buy the whole CD.

I am thankful that I can get a copy of music that is mine and only needs me to take care of it (backup is today's version of proper record/disc handling.)

Nothing on the internet is guaranteed forever (applies to all forms of content.) If you truly want something forever you have to store/control your own copy. You just have to decide how important that is.

I think Apple still sells a LOT of music.

Re: The surgeon who gave Steve Jobs a new liver - and two more years - faces new questions

yetanothersteve — Sun, 08 Dec 2013 16:19:52 -0000

Also... I let someone live in my house once. I paid the property taxes etc because IT WAS MY HOUSE. Is every good turn we do for people in this world supposed to be reduced to an economic transaction and scrutinized?

Those of us who aren't complete jerks do nice things for the people we want to do nice things for. It's called being a human being.

Imagine if he was paying Apple or Steve Jobs rent. We'd read the story about "Steve said 'Why don't you just live in my house?'... and then CHARGED THE GUY WHO SAVED HIS LIFE RENT."

Re: The surgeon who gave Steve Jobs a new liver - and two more years - faces new questions

yetanothersteve — Sun, 08 Dec 2013 16:12:56 -0000

It's sounds like a very rich and thankful guy saying Thank You. A billionaire gets new life... he'd be a major jerk not to show some appreciation. (And it's not like he didn't reward the hospital.)

The country is going bankrupt, we've just blown up our health care system... (insert your own list of important issues here) and we're worried about this. Poor guy is going to lose all his gain in legal fees when some glory seeking prosecutor decides to find a crime here somehow.

This man gave Steve Jobs two extra years of life, and I say "Thank you and you should have got a free house, not just free rent!"

Re: Man bites dog: Windows Phone overtakes Apple iOS in Italy

yetanothersteve — Wed, 06 Nov 2013 00:17:50 -0000

Seriously though I'm trying to figure out where Android's US market share comes from. Burner phones? In the wild, I see 2 to 1 iPhone share, minimum. And iPhone has > 50% at the top carriers. And slowly my friends are turning blue in iMessage.

Though that's just the niche market USA, not something huge and forward looking like Italy (which to their credit now owns our #3 domestic car maker)

Re: Man bites dog: Windows Phone overtakes Apple iOS in Italy

yetanothersteve — Wed, 06 Nov 2013 00:11:08 -0000

Italian poverty > Italian sense of style.
Poor Italy.

Re: Obama’s New and Improved Health-Care Pledge

yetanothersteve — Tue, 05 Nov 2013 17:26:30 -0000

The new lie is that the new more expensive plans are better. The Bronze plans protect hospitals by not having a lifetime cap perhaps, but they don't protect family budgets due to shockingly high deductibles and copays. (They make my old "high deductible" plan look like a Cadillac plan!) And they're not cheap! More for insurance AND more for out of pocket.

And here's an obvious fact: If the new Exchange plans were better, no one would have to be forced into them. iPhone didn't need a law banning BlackBerries.

Re: Obamacare is junk insurance | WashingtonExaminer.com

yetanothersteve — Tue, 05 Nov 2013 04:18:49 -0000

Yep.
Obvious point not made: If the Exchange plans were better for less, no one would have to be forced into them.. people would be canceling their own plans.

And yet, even WITH SUBSIDIES for many, the Exchange plans can't compete. And the president continues to lie, counting on the fact that most people don't buy their own insurance and may choose to believe his spin doctors (though it's hardly spin… they're in flat out lying territory.)

BlackBerry didn't have to be outlawed for the iPhone to thrive. The "if you like your plan you can keep it" plans did have to be outlawed.

Re: The Obamacare whiners

yetanothersteve — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 07:14:38 -0000

The New Lie is that the cancelled policies weren't really "insurance". In fact its the new "Bronze" policies that fit that description. There are some terrible terrible policies on the exchanges, and some very expensive ones. It's too bad that no elected official repeating the new lie actually has to buy their own insurance.

Maybe there were some shady policies out there before. But health insurance is important, so most of us buying an individual policy shopped carefully, and carefully balanced out the choices between things like higher deductibles, copays, and out of pocket maximums. And those greedy insurance companies, wanting to maximize their sales, carefully optimized those policies to give consumers as ideal a trade off as possible between premiums and coverage.

We didn't like how much it went up each year, but the Exchange plan rates make those increases look quite tame.

I estimate 10 million cancellations (67% of 15 million), and since the target (good luck hitting it) is 7 million new policies, I get 3 million fewer Americans covered.

That's going to be as fail as fail can get.

Re: Analyst: Apple's revenue per employee is 'off the charts'

yetanothersteve — Fri, 01 Nov 2013 02:18:54 -0000

The astonishing thing is that approximately half of these employees are in retail, which generates far less than half of Apple's revenue. Were it a typical tech company without a big retail arm, the numbers would be even more astronomical.

Re: Apple TV's market share - Apple 2.0 -Fortune Tech

yetanothersteve — Wed, 29 May 2013 14:17:48 -0000

Maybe Apple's TV is AppleTV?
I own 3, one per television. Perfect simple device for netflix. Also I'm a big baseball fan of an out-of-market team, so I have my MLB app.

The important thing isn't whether apple makes a TV. It's iTunes and appleTV as the apple content ecosystem. These sound like numbers getting serious enough to make that ecosystem real.

Re: Meet the man who figures Apple is worth $240 a share

yetanothersteve — Thu, 16 May 2013 16:08:56 -0000

I understand math. But the all mathematical models need stress testing and sanity checking. An enteprise value of sub $100 means that Apple's management would become the most wealthy execs on earth because the company could easily be taken private and they'd be divvying up its profits amongst themselves.

While it's possible the public would happily sell to them at that price, it's quite unlikely.

In fact, if you ignore the buybacks, at what date does Apple have $240/share in cash?

Now sure you can project a dramatic decline in margins, profits or even revenues. But it's hard to see that ROIC predicts that... you have to predict that yourself.

If Apple's earnings merely remain flattish, the likely scenario is that the cash is used to buyback shares (as they've started doing.) If the stock declines more that cash reduces outstanding share count even more. At some point you'll be down to investors who actually value the company.

Personally I'm comfortable that I understand Apple's business far better than analysts, and happy to let them convince the public to sell and push the price lower.

I mean all the gnashing of teeth over margins. It's call growth into a new market: tablets. (And next, non-subsidized phones.) Apple lucked into it's iPhone margins because of the American mobile subsidization model. Their business is built on that assuption, and we should see margin normalization as part of continued growth.

Amazon has NO margins and no one faults them.

Re: Bloomberg's lazy Apple bias - Apple 2.0 -Fortune Tech

yetanothersteve — Sat, 11 May 2013 14:34:54 -0000

Thank you PED.
And man, talk about an agenda, Bloomberg. $304K in an endowment of that size is probably just a nuisance, left to them by a donor.

Certainly journalists can get stories wrong, or misinterpret facts. But clearly that's not what's going on here. This is an active search for facts that fit an agenda... a la a political campaign.

Whether for clickbait or Samsung's marketing spend, I now know where to value the Bloomberg brand on all things.

Re: Is Samsung spamming Twitter? - Apple 2.0 -Fortune Tech

yetanothersteve — Fri, 26 Apr 2013 21:06:01 -0000

I don't believe ANY positive press report about Samsung. Astro-turf and plenty of revenue desperate outlets in old & new media. In real life I work in a development shop that's at least 50% Android... and the Android guys are NOT impressed by Samsung's products. (Me, I have no idea, I'm an iPhone using iOS dev.) But we'll keep it to ourselves because we're trying to land a big deal with them.

Re: Apple profit slips 18% - Apr. 23, 2013

yetanothersteve — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 20:15:49 -0000

Of course they show the flattening iPhone units NOT the rapidly growing iPad units. They make a little less money doing what critics used to say they should.... not mark up their products as much... and the company is beleagured. The tone is as if they're losing money.

Re: Apple's beats targets, to return $100 billion to shareholders

yetanothersteve — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 17:47:17 -0000

Here's the thing: For YEARS people have criticized Apple's margins as being too high and not competitive. So in fact, Apple lowers margins to be more competitive (mainly it's a product mix thing but that'll increase if there's a lower cost iPhone) and APPLE IS DOOOMED.

Doomed if margins are too high. Doomed if they come down. Now that's doomed.

Meanwhile the company continues to print money. Largest stock buyback in history...

====

More on margins: Apple's high margins in the last few years were the iPhone mix, and a side effect of the structure of the US mobile market (carrier subsidies.) Apple priced high to carriers that needed them and ate the subsidies. No effect on share so why not.

For products where end users pay the actual price, Apple's margins have always been lower--by design. So as the iPad business grows, margins come down. This isn't a problem at all.... this is domination of the next generation of computing.

The super high margins were an aberration. Now back to merely high margins.

Not doomed.

Re: Did an Apple 2.0 story touch a nerve at Samsung HQ?

yetanothersteve — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 02:02:28 -0000

The extremely anti-apple votes on an apple focused blog sure look like astro-turf to me. Yep, hit a nerve indeed. If only the American press would address foreign companies with the same level of distrust and skepticism as they do American ones.

Re: Mixed signals on Apple Inc. from Goldman Sachs

yetanothersteve — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 15:44:05 -0000

Every time I got out to places where people aren't poor (not rich, just not poor)... bars, sporting events, you notice the big fat Android devices. Because they're an exception. Everyone has an iPhone by default. They'll upgrade them sooner or later. Apple has the stickiest ecosystem... at least in this little niche of a market place I live in called the USA.

That Wall Street thinks this company is over is... an opportunity.

Re: Yes, Jarrod, Apple does have $137.1 billion in liquid assets

yetanothersteve — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 14:21:48 -0000

Only Seeking Alpha would post such an article by a guy who clearly doesn't understand basic financial accounting such as the meaning of "marketable security" and the meaning of "short term" and "long term." These aren't marketing spin words, they have very specific meanings and he didn't have a clue.

(To be pedantic: short term/long term cut off is one year. Exactly. And marketable means liquid. Can be sold at any time. A long term marketable security is just as liquid as a short term one. This isn't conjecture or opinion, it's accounting.)

Re: So long, break-even

yetanothersteve — Sun, 24 Mar 2013 00:08:10 -0000

Apple might be better off long term cutting its take in the iTunes store to put more pressure on AMZN and GOOG who don't have their volumes. Even $2 B /year isn't that much to Apple... and we're just talking about the iTunes side, not the AAPL labelled software side.

Moreover the profits Apple makes from having great margins on its devices because of its unmatched ecosystem will always dwarf its iTunes store profits.

Unless, that is, Apple wants to seriously change its business model to cut its hardware margins.... And given how little Wall Street currently values Apple's profits (compared to, say, AMZN's profitless dominance)...

Re: Guessing the Wall Street Journal Agenda for Apple

yetanothersteve — Thu, 14 Mar 2013 21:45:37 -0000

More than 1/2 the smartphones on the big 3 US carriers are iPhones. Go to a place where people aren't poor (I don't mean they're rich just not poor) and iPhone is standard. Sure there are Galaxies... they stand out as different.

iPhone is headed toward ubiquity as a synonym for smartphone in the US market.

My god go out and look. And if the woman at the bar doesn't have an iphone she'll plead poverty as an excuse. And want one.

Wait. Apple is relegated to that niche market called US & Canada. They're doomed.

====

Seriously, though some day Tim Cook, a bargain shopper at heart and a guy who can do math has to see that the cheapest commodity on the planet is his own company's stock. And he doesn't need to sit on cash when he keeps printing more. It's easy to project a sceario including buybacks alone where the company goes on to earn $100 /share.

And this has happened before: investor sentiment has turned very negative ("it has to go back down!") despite no change in the health of its business. It's a gift. Several years ago this company with $150 ish a share in cash traded for $80/share.

Re: Where are the Android users?

yetanothersteve — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 13:08:21 -0000

When I go out to any slightly upscale event: a bar, baseball spring training, I am stunned by the great unreported story of the iPhone's dominance in the US. Big Samsung phones stand out because they are such a minority. My thesis is that in the US the iPhone is headed for iPod status. Phones in use, with a real data plan, the smart phone as we know it, in the US, is an iPhone market. And when you talk to people about their smartphone you can just say iPhone.

It's why I laugh more than ever at the "Apple is doomed" meme currently in vogue (again!) Because the US is not exactly a niche market, and iOS is certainly a stickier platform than an iPod...

Re: Yes, Jarrod, Apple does have $137.1 billion in liquid assets

yetanothersteve — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 01:32:51 -0000

I'd love a new metric on AAPL. PE, net of cash less repatriation taxes. That is reduce the "cash" (and marketable -- meaning liquid -- securities) by the cash taxes they'd have to pay to bring it "home" and distribute it to shareholders. Note that earnings are already less taxes so at this point you're purely after tax.

Also if you're paying attention, you've noted that APPL always gains more in "cash" each quarter than earnings. That's because earnings contain allowances for taxes against them, even if you defer those taxes by keeping the money offshore.

One way I think of PE is "how many years of earnings would buy the whole company?"

Clearly as an investment it has downward momentum. But if you don't see that in its business, even tick downward just makes it a more awesome buy.