Disqus - Latest Comments for vfsv

Re: Unjustified Optimism In Theory And Practice

vfsv — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 20:15:53 -0000

This graph is too optimistic. I predict the spent dollars & resultant debt will keep the UE rate higher in the "out" years as more & more businesses see they will be unable to make profits in markets crowded by government-subsidized competitors & so never get started.

Instead of 5% in 2014 (or whenever) the rate will still be 6 or 6.5% & that gap will persist for years and years. (As we all "pay" for the jobs "saved" at bankrupt manufacturers, banks, insurers, REITS, etc..) Over a longer horizon the "net" will be negative!

Re: Deep Thoughts From A 0.925 Batting Average

vfsv — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 23:01:19 -0000

Don't be confused by the accent --he knows waaaay more than the average sheeple.

Unfortunately, most people don't understand the issues nearly as well as this guy & so the necessary revolution will remain difficult to get moving...

Re: Frontrunning: July 22

vfsv — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 10:05:16 -0000

Decision-makers' guide to stimulus part deux --Link seems to be busted?

Re: The Modern Day Reverse Alchemists

vfsv — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 13:20:05 -0000

I routinely dismiss stuff from GATA but this is food for thought but this got me thinking.

What is the point of Comex if you can't use it to buy physical gold?

Why would anyone who wants to own physical gold settle for GLD? Particularly if some of these points are in fact accurate?

Re: Quick look at US federal receipts

vfsv — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 11:44:48 -0000

ha, ha!

I concede the themes are consistent:
1) Ads obscure actual content --
2) Bailouts obscure actual (financial & moral) bankruptcy

Re: Quick look at US federal receipts

vfsv — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 11:29:05 -0000

I'm no expert but something funky seems to going on with the code in this post. I can't get the right-hand margin wide enough to show all the text. (The ads seems to be laying on top of it?)

Re: Toxic Equity Trading Order Flow On Wall Street

vfsv — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:48:21 -0000

Nice piece, thanks!

It could explain some price behavior I couldn't explain. By coincidence, I've experimented with "leaping the trend" a few times & was happy to see an order fill, the see the stock (or sometimes an option) move the other way, making me think I caught a short-term top or bottom.

Re: HOW ARE WE DOING?

vfsv — Tue, 26 May 2009 12:22:56 -0000

Great work! I make a point to read the RSS feed every chance I get.

Re: ZANDI PREDICTS 4TH QUARTER RECOVERY

vfsv — Sun, 24 May 2009 17:27:01 -0000

"We need to see the loan modification program work. If it doesn’t work, foreclosures will go up and that will put pressure on consumers because of loss of wealth.”

---Zandi assumes home prices are only going down due to foreclosures. Never mind the disconnect with incomes over the last 4 -5 years--- on top of the huge numbers of jobs/ incomes lost over the last 6 -9 months.

Foreclosures will continue to go up regardless of loan mods.

Re: MICHAEL DARDA IS BULLISH

vfsv — Sun, 24 May 2009 14:00:30 -0000

Other than rising stock prices and bond yields, I don't understand which data he focused on to reach his conclusions.

Are house prices going back up? (Even with higher bond prices and the next wave of NOD/foreclosures coming in the next couple months?) Are jobs bouncing back?

Homey says, "I don't think so!"

Re: IS PAUL KRUGMAN BACK PEDDLING?

vfsv — Fri, 22 May 2009 23:05:45 -0000

No video of what Krugman actually said?

Re: REIT Analyst Leaves Bank Of America In Midst Of Most Lucrative Period For Group

vfsv — Wed, 20 May 2009 16:41:57 -0000

If I hadn't been following this issue (thanks in large part to Zero Hedge) I might have thought this was a serious statement:
"whose work product Zero Hedge has not spared its praise for in the past"

I've learned the hard way in (from my own blog) that sarcasm is difficult to convey in print, but I do love it.

Keep it up!

Re: PAULSON MANAGEMENT 13-F

vfsv — Sun, 17 May 2009 21:43:39 -0000

Sorry, please excuse my ignorance.
---I did a little research (duh!?!) & believe "sh" is "shares". (So what is "prn"?) ---Therefore he is (or was) long these positions?
---If so, that looks like a BIG gold position, esp GLD.

FWIW, I am suprised both by the financials: (COF, JPM,...) & that he is holding healthcare in the face of possible government intervention which is likely to depress insurers (competing with "free") & providers (getting lower reimbursement rates).

Re: PAULSON MANAGEMENT 13-F

vfsv — Sun, 17 May 2009 21:18:14 -0000

Am I reading this correctly that he is "short"(??) (SH /PRN) all these positions?

What was the date of this filing?

Re: THE SECRETS OF KEN GRIFFIN

vfsv — Sun, 17 May 2009 19:14:14 -0000

"The exodus began right after traders began collecting de-ferred compensation in October 2002 from the firm’s most-profitable years: 1999, when the Citadel Wellington fund returned 45.2 percent, and 2000, "
---"Deferred compensation." In other words, they had to stick around long enough to make sure they weren't gaming the system with short-term gains at the expense of long-term losses.
---"It is what it is" but still don't "get it" why some of these other idiot firms are getting bailed out by taxpayers when the "solution" was there all along...

Re: MORE FROM MARC FABER

vfsv — Sun, 17 May 2009 11:15:44 -0000

Do you really believe Asia-based REITs will remain immune from the types of problems plaguing so many US-based REITs? I found it hard to keep listening after hearing that from Faber...

Re: LUMBER LIQUIDATORS?

vfsv — Sat, 16 May 2009 13:08:52 -0000

It's annoying how few MSM articles note the seasonality factor while touting recent housing sales, inventory or price blips. We've been talking about for years, the latest of which was,
"The Last 30 Days (Mar'09 Data),"
http://www.viewfromsiliconv...

Re: “THE WORST IS YET TO COME”

vfsv — Fri, 15 May 2009 22:46:48 -0000

It's what we're all saying.

When will it finally start to make a difference to those connected so-called-genius business school old boys determined to keep throwing away taxpayer money on businesses which should be in bankruptcy?

Re: DEEP THOUGHTS FROM RICHARD RUSSELL

vfsv — Thu, 14 May 2009 13:01:03 -0000

I notice he ended with "from the recovering – R man."
---Has Russell been ill?

Re: GOLD LOSING ITS LUSTER?

vfsv — Wed, 13 May 2009 16:52:40 -0000

I've read theory & history that argues gold's relative performance (gold /silver ratio, or what have you) during a "boom" will be poor but it will out-perform during a "bust." (Various political calamities &/or QE announcements notwithstanding.)

Looking at your chart, it might be useful to add the S&P500. I read the current on as saying gold did "relatively" well as the market declined (with some lead time) but mostly underperformed during the market's 8-week run-up. If there is a similar "leadtime" at work today, the chart might be suggesting the S&P500 has topped & getting ready for another leg down.

Re: MEREDITH WHITNEY READS TPC

vfsv — Wed, 13 May 2009 13:14:15 -0000

"It's not illegal when the President or the government does it."
---Why would you invest in such a market?

Re: HATZIUS & MAKI ON THE RECOVERY

vfsv — Wed, 13 May 2009 12:49:28 -0000

If I listen to enough these guys talking their book, I almost forget that $500K(!) people lost their jobs last month.

Re: SOME THOUGHTS FROM VALE

vfsv — Thu, 07 May 2009 00:04:37 -0000

It seems like they are "talking their book" to some extent. They really "need" a U-shaped recovery. (As opposed to L-shaped, or inverted square root-shaped, or whatever...)

Re: The post-recovery US economy will still be weak and will get clobbered by commodities prices

vfsv — Wed, 06 May 2009 23:08:20 -0000

I was interested to study the graph on, "the correlation between commodities and rate of change of world GDP."

What I don't see is an explanation for the apparent lag between them in the 80's but lack of same since ~1998?

Re: SOME AFTERNOON READING

vfsv — Wed, 06 May 2009 20:50:09 -0000

Under the quick recovery scenario, who will be hiring?
Who has jobs such that they will keep the spending going?
Even if jobs do come back (which I suspect may be the headline on Friday morning, however unjustified in the bigger picture...), won't everybody be saving? And /or paying down debt?