Disqus - Latest Comments for vanman11

Re: You buy a house for half a million dollars and...

vanman11 — Sat, 20 Mar 2010 14:46:08 -0000

http://www.househunting.ca/...

For example, the maximum amount Canadians can withdraw in refinancing their mortgages has dropped to 90% from 95% of the value of their homes.

"There is a bit of urgency now to get [a refinancing] done before April 19. People are chronically refinancing. I have clients that refinance every two to three years to take the equity out of their home to pay off credit-card debt. The home has become an ATM machine," Ms. Dunsby says.

Ah yes...the dreaded ATM machine phrase is being used in Canada's mainstream media now.

Not much longer now. All you did was delay this Carney! Not stop it! Bwahahahaha.

I wonder how many houses I will buy with all the money I have saved over the last few years? Just one, since I don't see my home as an investment.

Re: You buy a house for half a million dollars and...

vanman11 — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 01:21:41 -0000

New Mortgage rules will kill first time home buyers who have no money for a down payment. goto TD Bank's mortgage calculator: http://www.tdcanadatrust.co...

Enter in 480,000 as the mortgage.
Enter in a monthly payment.
Enter in a rate of 2.25%, the current variable rate.
You will notice that the mortgage payment is about $1650/month.

So an individual can qualify up to 480,000 with a mortgage rate of 2.25%.

Starting next month, enter in the qualification rate of 5.25%.
The person will still be able to pay with the low 2.25% rate, but you'll see they can only qualify for $325,000.

That's right! borrowers who could before borrow up to $480,000 can now only borrow $325,000.

You think that won't affect house prices?

The gov't of Canada shouldn't have put the BoC rate at 0.25% in the first place. All they did was allow households to have enourmous debt loads.

Now they're trying to fix the mess they made. Too little, too late...but it's a good start!

Re: And then they'll say they never saw it coming

vanman11 — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 00:58:58 -0000

Let's see...the G&M is once again warning that all the banks are warning that interest rates will be increasing by 0.75% to 2.5% by 2011 Q1.

That makes the prime rates to be estimated to be anywhere from 3.0% to 5.0% (prime is 2% above the Bank of Canada overnight rate).

Who wants to bet that if interest rates shoot up 1% that house prices won't start to drop?

http://www.globeinvestor.co...

http://www.nationalpost.com...

Re: Alice in the Wonderland continued....

vanman11 — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 02:05:20 -0000

If all these pro-high house price posters truly believe it is the best time to buy a house and they can make tons of money renting out an invested house: Go and buy 2 or 3 houses and condos.

Stop wasting your time on this blog.

If you don't think that the only reason why prices went a little back up last February was NOT due to the Bank of Canada lowering interest rates to 0.25% than go out and buy 2 or 3 more houses/condos. You'll make so much more money!!!

It's so easy!

Also, if you don't think prices will dive again once they raise interest rates some time this summer/fall then go and buy more houses.

Re: China Bust Scenario

vanman11 — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 01:28:20 -0000

I've been watching this show "Til Debt do us Part". It's a Canadian show about couples in debt. Well lo and behold, all these couples (many with mortgages) don't even have enough money to live. The big thing that surprised me (the debt wasn't), but it was that these couples were not only in their 20s, but also their 30s and 40s!!!! Their life is paid for by debt. These days, people want everything NOW. Give me my 2000 sqft house now. GIve me my softa and love seat I can't afford now, NOW! What does this have to do with housing? Everything. BTW: 2010 once interest rates go up, we'll be back to the price decline that was rudely stopped by the Government of Canada when they lowered interest rates to 0.25%.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

vanman11 — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:43:42 -0000

As I stated months ago, the unemployment rate here will reach the national average by the end of the year ( I believe).

Re: Weekend Open Thread

vanman11 — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 01:58:55 -0000

Shell to cut 10%.

http://www.edmontonsun.com/...

Not sure how many will be affected in Canada, but since they have 6000+ employees and thousands more contractors in AB, there probably will be layoffs here, too.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

vanman11 — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 02:52:38 -0000

"We have high prices, affordability limits and we inject higher interest rates,”
He expects the prime rate to rise from today’s 2.25 up to 4.75 moving into late 2010 and 2011."

From the most UNLIKELY source: Cameron Muir. Former CHMC head and current B.C. Real Estate Association’s chief economist!

http://www.kamloopsnews.ca/...

Wah?!?!?!? I see pigs flying outside my window in the dark!

When the real estate pumpers start spewing this stuff...Run for the Freaking Hills!!!!!

Re: Growing economy, more jobs and other lies

vanman11 — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 04:40:23 -0000

I've been reading about the financial world since late 2006/early 2007....and the more I know, the worse it is.

All the fraud and manipulation that goes on is horrendous.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pag...

Re: Growing economy, more jobs and other lies

vanman11 — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 04:36:08 -0000

Great video. if they finally are willing to uncover the fraud that caused this recession - it'll get worse. If they aren't willing to uncover it, we will be living Japan's lost decade in the US and Canada. http://www.pbs.org/moyers/j...

Re: Deja Vu all over again

vanman11 — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 15:42:57 -0000

Cities, states/provinces, countries are all issuing debts that are competing with each other driving up the yield (interest rate of return on them).

California for example.

http://www.marketwatch.com/...

Alberta did it recently as well and offered a higher rate of return than government of Canada bonds.

Mortgage rates compete with Bonds. As bond yields go up...mortgage rates go up.

it is inevitable.....with all these governments issuing bonds.

Re: Deja Vu all over again

vanman11 — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 01:13:55 -0000

people need to calm down. Bankruptcies are rising, credit card charge offs are close to 5% and delinquincies another 5%. So, almost 1 in 10 credit card accounts in Canada are in trouble.

All the government of Canada did was delay the cash. My original thinking was late 2009 for the crash and we were on our way with an 18% drop from the peak. No one anticipated the goverment of Canada would drop interest rates to 0.25%.

How long can they keep rates that low? another 12 months or so max. Once rates creep up, you'll see a panic of selling as people realize they cannot afford their overpriced houses.

Australia bumped up its rate by 0.25% and they expect another jump before the end of the year.

Asian central banks will follow, then european, than north american (that is my guess).

I'm sure there are only about 15-20% of the mortgages out there that are financed at 95% or 100%, but don't forget about the people that took out HELOCs (lines of credit) that once house prices go down, they can't pay back. Alberta is #1 in Canada for HELOCS!
All it takes is 15-20% of mortgages to go bad and it feeds through the rest of the system.

Ask California. Ask Nevada...then ask the rest of the U.S.v

Re: The Pitch From Toronto...

vanman11 — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 01:18:01 -0000

Re: The Pitch From Toronto...

vanman11 — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 23:36:12 -0000

53,000 people became disenchanted and stopped looking for work in Canada last month. That means they don't count towards the unemployment rate.

BearClaw, am I still delusional now?

"Discouraged and tired of rejection, over 53,000 unemployed Canadians stopped looking for work last month. That is what economists called discouraged workers, which means they just vanish from the unemployment stats"

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2...

Re: The Pitch From Toronto...

vanman11 — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 17:30:44 -0000

People who don't like their jobs? or feel they aren't paid enough? Can't believe you said that. It doesn't say people who feel they are underpaid.

That's not the case. It is purely people who are forced into p/t jobs due to loss of full time jobs.

The purpose is to get a WHOLE picture of how many people are unemployed.

In the U.S. that number sits at 11%.

I realize you don't like what the numbers are saying. The U.S. real unemployment number sits at 11% and Canada's is probably closer to 10%.

Many people don't qualify for EI in the first place and aren't even counted: I believe that is Squiddly's point.

Re: The Pitch From Toronto...

vanman11 — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 16:24:06 -0000

But if I was a former fulltimer and now a parttimer...I'm pretty sure I wouldn't consider myself fully employed.

Parttime work doesn't pay for the family, housing, food, savings, cars, debt.

Re: The Pitch From Toronto...

vanman11 — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 15:28:12 -0000

Its not a flawed assumption.

Have you heard of the U-3 and U-6 unemployment figures in the U.S.?

The U6 counts discouraged workers, workers that aren't looking for work anymore.

The U6 number is way higher than 9.4%.

The U6 unemployment number in the U.S. is 16.8%.

What was my guess?

"That's why the real unemployment rate is much higher in the U.S.: it's probably sitting at 12-13% (my guess)."

The U6 numbers also include people who lost full-time jobs, but are now working in part-time jobs, but WANT full-time jobs.

If you exclude these fulltimers turned parttimers, the number is sitting at 11%. The U-5 numbers in the U.S.

Hey lookie, pretty close guess. off by 1%.

U.S. Labour of stats:

http://www.bls.gov/news.rel...

Too bad Canada doesn't keep track of these people anymore.

Re: The Pitch From Toronto...

vanman11 — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 12:55:29 -0000

If people would like to close their eyes and pretend everything is okay than hey - their choice.

I personally think its better to know what is REALLY happening out there as opposed to sticking one's head in the ground.

I choose to share this info, if people choose to read it, fine, but don't say that I make theories up out of nothing.

StatsCan states after 4 weeks, people aren't considerened unemployed anymore.

The Globe and Mail article said the same thing; that the unemployment number stayed the same due to people disenchanted with looking for work and thus aren't counted anymore.

I didn't mention anything about housing. I was talking about the unemployment rate.

Things don't always look like they seem, that's all. Sometimes we need to dig a bit deeper to get the to the truth.

Re: The Pitch From Toronto...

vanman11 — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 12:45:37 -0000

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pu...

"were without work, had actively looked for work in the past four weeks (ending with reference week), and were available for work;

had not actively looked for work in the past four weeks but were on temporary layoff and were available for work;

had not actively looked for work in the past four weeks but had a new job to start in four weeks or less from the reference week, and were available for work. "

Once 4 weeks is up, they aren't counted as unemployed anymore? Savvy?

So yes, there are people unemployed that aren't counted in the unemployment numbers.

That's how we can lose jobs and have the unemployment rate stay the same or go down. People's EI benefits expire and after one month after the EI Benefits - they aren't counted as unemployed, nor are they employed.

Re: The Pitch From Toronto...

vanman11 — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 12:42:25 -0000

I didn't say the number was 16%.

"were without work, had actively looked for work in the past four weeks (ending with reference week), and were available for work;

had not actively looked for work in the past four weeks but were on temporary layoff and were available for work;

had not actively looked for work in the past four weeks but had a new job to start in four weeks or less from the reference week, and were available for work. "

AFter 4 weeks of not looking for work, they are not unemployed and are not employed.

Hence, there are people not working and not counted as unemployed.

This article in G&M even states it.

http://www.theglobeandmail....

"The unemployment rate stayed steady an 11-year high of 8.6 per cent, but only because discouraged unemployed people, mainly youth, gave up searching for a job"

Re: The Pitch From Toronto...

vanman11 — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 03:29:04 -0000

Yeah, so when people give up looking for work they aren't counted as Unemployed anymore. They aren't counted as employed either.

So, I would bet there are a lot of people 2-5% of the population who were unemployed and aren't counted anymore.

As more and more people lose their EI benefits, many of those people won't be considered unemployed anymore...yay for the Unemployment rate! Too bad those people are still left without a job. Worse is, those people are also left without EI Benefits.

http://www.theglobeandmail....

"The unemployment rate stayed steady an 11-year high of 8.6 per cent, but only because discouraged unemployed people, mainly youth, gave up searching for a job. The labour force shrank by 53,500 people. "

Re: The Pitch From Toronto...

vanman11 — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 03:12:43 -0000

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I recall in the early 80s we use to count all unemployed people - regardless if they were still collecting EI or not.

That's why the numbers in the 80s went higher and ours now should be already over 10% for Canada.

Re: The Pitch From Toronto...

vanman11 — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 03:11:32 -0000

BearClaw:
The official unemployment number for Alberta is 7.2%.

Here is a good example for you why the official number doesn't count people who aren't looking for work anymore or aren't on the EI payroll.

Canada lost 45,000 jobs in July, yet the official unemployment number stayed the same. Hmm.

In the U.S. they lost 200,000+ jobs in July, yet the official unemployment number went down from 9.5 to 9.4%.

Why? because tons of people's EI benefits have expired. They aren't listed as unemployed anymore. They even state that on articles about EI in the US. The rate goes down because people's benefits have expired.

That's why the real unemployment rate is much higher in the U.S.: it's probably sitting at 12-13% (my guess).

Canada's real unemployment number is probably sitting at 11-12%.

Alberta's is probably around 9-10%.

Re: The Pitch From Toronto...

vanman11 — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 18:44:20 -0000

US numbers look less bad? My guess is that many people's EI benefits have come to and end. When people are not on EI anymore, or aren't looking for work anymore (even if they dont have a job), they aren't considered unemployed. They aren't considered employed either. They lost 247,000 more jobs in the US for July, but the overall unemployment number went from 9.5% to 9.4%.

I'd look to the number of full-time jobs gained as a better leading indicator.

As for Canada, the "self-employed" seem to be rising quite steadliy. I wonder how much longer people will list themselves as "self-employed" if (my guess only) most of the self-employed aren't bringing in a paycheque.

It's good to be prepared with some savings and no or low debt.

Re: The Pitch From Toronto...

vanman11 — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 13:53:53 -0000

http://www.cbc.ca/money/sto...

Credit card delinquincies are up 24% Year Over Year.

I expect credit card delinquincies to rise even further as we head into the holiday season in a few months.

Unfortunately, many people on EI benefits will start to lose their benefits shortly.

Many went on EI starting in Dec-Feb. 9 months later....