Disqus - Friends of toptick

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/05/destruction_of_the_temple.htm

kleenup2 — Thu, 15 May 2008 18:30:59 -0000

Looks like we have been in an inflation driven bull market across the board. Oil, Gold, Commodities, Housing, and the Stock Market have all been going up simultaneously the past 5 yrs. The Drop from the highs in Oct. to March was only a 50% retracement on the fibs. so technically the uptrend is still in tact for the Dow. I trade the ER2 emini futures and that thing trades like its nothing but program trading running the show. She bounces off fibs, trendlines, moving averages with precision. I always say...watch what they do...not what they say. They being the powers that be. Back when all hell was breaking loose they were saying everything is contained and the economy is sound. Now they are telling you that the economy is weak and that the credit crunch still needs to be worked out of the system. Only thing for sure in this game is that you can go broke before you are proven right so never marry any idea.

An idea is a belief that the mind possesses...a belief is an idea that possesses the mind.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/05/destruction_of_the_temple.htm

kleenup2 — Thu, 15 May 2008 18:36:11 -0000

I trade intraday and the rising 5 dma is very strong and is met with large buy orders on any pullback.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/08/oil_gold_and_equities.htm

kleenup2 — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 10:42:29 -0000

Morning Tim...fellow traders. I too have been taking the gold short since it failed to make a new high when the indices made new lows in July. Looked to be a standard retracement from oversold conditions. The indices are not as badly damaged as some of you may believe in my opinion. I day trade Russell2k eminis and swingtrade gold and oil minis. 720 area is strong support on the Rut but it may be carving out a head and shoulders top or just backtesting the broken trendline which could see 750 and still be bearish...But due to the daily average true range being 17 pts on the Rut I am short from 737 since the low was 721.5 which places the risk/reward in my favor for the day. Calls and puts took a beating yesterday since volatility actually decreased.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/08/oil_gold_and_equities.htm

kleenup2 — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 10:48:37 -0000

Morning mole...I play futures but I do occasionally sell puts and calls when the premium is high enough to warrant it. The Russell looks to be at the highs for the day...I use the ATR as a big part of my trading. The only problem i see with the puts are that they appear to be overpriced and volatility is falling so many options are losing money through time decay and falling VIX.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/08/black_ice.htm

kleenup2 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 12:23:16 -0000

Thnx for your posts but I do have a question since I am of a totally different opinion when it comes to gold and the other commodities. I have been shorting gold and once i close the position I have been waiting for another short entry which occurred this morning when the RSI was overbought at 85 on the hourly charts at $850 psychological resistance... As well as the daily chart signaling overbought with full stoch above 80, RSI below 50, MACD far below the 0 line plus we have a declining 20 day and 50 day sma. I am looking for gold to go back below $800 shortly with only seasonality being the bullish catalyst to keep it from making new lows. Today has the potential to be a huge inverted hammer which would be quite bearish IMO. Also gold has been getting most of its gains through up gaps during thinly traded night sessions which makes me weary of the conviction behind those gains and we are still within the confines of a 6 wk downtrend. I'd appreciate your viewpoint and time frame for your trade. Mine is a swingtrade and looking to take about $40 -$50 to the downside.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/08/chats_morts.htm

kleenup2 — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 14:46:13 -0000

The rebalancing is done based by market capitalization (of float) so some years you will have a higher percentage of financials, industrials, etc. based on the prior years stock performance. Since financials took such a beating many of the former large and mid caps are now small caps and thus increasing their weighting in the Russell 2000.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/08/chats_morts.htm

kleenup2 — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 15:04:55 -0000

What chart are you looking at...silver looks like it is cracked technically and also looks like it is more likely to reach $6 than $60...Silver is currently at $13.60 and the trading high is just over $21 which was very short lived. Long term support looks to be in the $12 range especially and the strengthening dollar and general unwinding of commodity longs should keep pressure to the downside on gold and silver. Seasonality is really the only bullish catalyst at the moment and a move to $15 would be a very nice short entry IMO.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/premarket_postgustav.htm

kleenup2 — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:23:54 -0000

Because he is an idiot and even more incompetent than George Bush. Crash 3 jets in training and still allowed to play with multi-million dollar jets and fly combat missions. Then crash a 4th jet and tell a marvelous tale how you were shot down by the Vietnamese. It appears that mediocrity is the #1 export of the USA.

Kleenup2 former Marine Corps Capt...Ooh Rah.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/premarket_postgustav.htm

kleenup2 — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:38:46 -0000

The amazing thing is how well the market has held up despite all the fundamental and technical reasons that it has had for the bottom to fall out of it. I was as bearish...maybe even more bearish than many on this site but I took profits as they came and didn't add to my positions as the markets fell which is exactly what many people have been doing. Beanie you are catching a lot of animus from people that have been using poor money management techniques and are struggling to break even in one of the best times to be bearish in recent memory. Tim has made many salient points and the best of them all were to take profits out of your account and protect them when you get them. He has also begun to look at both sides of the coin more to see the bullish case for equities as well and it appears to have been of benefit to him. I am neither a bull nor bear just a simple futures trader that has no other means of income therefore I value my money much more than I value my opinion. It seems too many on this board value their opinions more than they value their money. Good luck with that way of thinking.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/chartists_local_385.htm

kleenup2 — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 12:00:59 -0000

Morning Mike...I have always noticed that the oil and equities market were more directly correlated and not inversely correlated as the market mavens on CNBC et al would have us to believe until I began to think more deeply about the relationship. Oil is the lifeblood of the productive economy and as the economy expands this allows for the price of oil to rise in unison. But there did come a point in time where oil continued to rise despite the fact that the economy was no longer growing at the previous rate thus creating the oil bubble and now we are having a reversion to the mean. Oil may even over shoot to the downside as much as it over shot to the upside once the momentum guys pile on and we enter into the slow driving season, hurricanes do little damage, have another unusually mild winter, and geo-political tensions ease around the world.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/chartists_local_385.htm

kleenup2 — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 12:23:58 -0000

Always look for a gap that big to eventually fill...find the pt of buying exhaustion and take a low risk entry to the short side is how I play big up gaps. They usually take a couple days to fill but if you lucky they can fill the same day. I only trade the Russell2k index futures and I buy and sell options on the mini S&P.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/chartists_local_385.htm

kleenup2 — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 13:27:02 -0000

Not too late...gold is the best short going right now. She had a strong bounce from the lows of the day($15) and looks to be setting up a bear flag. Just getting confirmed sell signals on the daily charts and we should be seeing $750 soon. Only bullish case for gold right now is seasonality due to Indian buying and upcoming Christmas season. Bearish case 1) the rally in the dollar index to an 8-month high, and (2) continued long liquidation as large specs cut their large net long position to an 11-month low of 112,366 as of Aug 19. The Gold Council reported that with prices still near record highs, overall Q2 gold demand fell -19% y/y to 736 MT, Q2 jewelry consumption dropped -24% y/y, Q2 industrial demand fell -5% y/y and Q2 gold supply rose +1% y/y to 802 MT.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/bombs_away.htm

kleenup2 — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 11:00:46 -0000

Tim looks like you did get a good backtest to do a nice short re-entry but it was in gold. Anyone trading gold to the long side beware. That egg is cracked and don't believe the goldbugs. Gold down 23% from its all-time high, Oil down 25% from its all-time high, S and P down 22% from its all-time highs. Looks to be more positively correlated than inversely correlated if you ask me. Nice time to be a bear...just short everything.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/bombs_away.htm

kleenup2 — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 11:49:23 -0000

Just FYI with full disclosure I live in Charlotte, NC and my wife is a VP at BAC Home Equity division....they have some "new" and innovative financial products that they are rolling out. I know...we both laughed about that as well. But it looks as though the banks are lobbying to have market cap restrictions removed and we may soon be going to a world with mega banks that will absorb the small troubled banks. But current law restricts banks to 10% max of total deposit receipts.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/by_jove_holmes.htm

kleenup2 — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 12:38:43 -0000

The thing about it is that times like these are what causes consolidation in all industries. Part of the current problem is that too many companies used credit and leverage to increase market share and put all kinds of buy out premium into the market. Had many traders scared to short for a couple years because there was no deal too big to get done with all the easy money that was floating around. Gold giving back all the gains from overnight which should leave a huge gravestone doji or inverted hammer at best...either way...looks like gold will be testing 750 in the coming days. But 790 is a rising trendline but looks like it will break...P and F charts have a $740 target on gold.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/by_jove_holmes.htm

kleenup2 — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 12:55:59 -0000

Gold looks more bearish than the indexes IMO. The trend is your friend...short em all.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/nothing_doing.htm

kleenup2 — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 19:56:23 -0000

The big problem is that banks have always been in the position to refinance non-performing mortgages without government intervention. Banks have been unwilling to do so because they have been waiting on the Fed to ride to the rescue. Banks losses aren't coming from foreclosures but from the falling home values. Banks count the equity in your home as profit on their balance sheets. So even if the foreclosures stop...write-downs will continue until home values stop dropping. This move by the Fed should have been done in lieu of the rapid rate reductions last year, but they began to believe their own BS about Fannie and Freddie being adequately capitalized. The rate reductions weren't passed on to the consumers because banks weren't capitalized and couldn't afford to loan money at favorable terms to customers.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/the_sun_struggles_up_another_beautiful_day.htm

kleenup2 — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 10:10:50 -0000

As I stated last week...gold is the best short going at the moment. It is being liquidated heavily by funds and has major damage done to its charts. The dollar rally is legit and has legs due to the years of short interest that has been built up and is now being unwound. And gold has several bearish fundamental reasons for prices to decline further. The Gold Council reported that with prices still near record highs, overall Q2 gold demand fell -19% y/y to 736 MT, Q2 jewelry consumption dropped -24% y/y, Q2 industrial demand fell -5% y/y and Q2 gold supply rose +1% y/y to 802 MT. I'd look for buying near $740-$750 range but shorting the rallies will provide better risk/reward than trying to pick the bottom. Very important long term support of a rising trendline has been broken on the weekly charts...a back test of that trendline near $850 was quickly and decisively rebuffed and the only rally attempts are made during pre-market trading on very thin volume.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/disappointment_is_job_one.htm

kleenup2 — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 19:47:23 -0000

You guys see the dollar accelerating through .80? Looks like a lot of people were trying to time a reversal at resistance but the old greenback sliced through it like a hot knife through Parkay. Currencies usually have long sustained moves so guys be careful trying to fight the momo once it gets going.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/totally_off_kilter.htm

kleenup2 — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 13:12:47 -0000

Where you getting your P/E info? Looks like SPX trading near 16x. The catastrophic event is the amount of intervention needed to maintain the current levels. The big boys playing the pump and dump like a maestro on the violin. Just like Goldman putting a $200 target on oil when it was at $140 so they could sell into the rally and then get short. Its all about risk/reward. They want you to believe that the risk now is greater to be short than it is to be long so that they can sell into the rally. Reminds me of the gold bugs pumping the price and the targets to unload to the armageddon crowd.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/totally_off_kilter.htm

kleenup2 — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 13:19:22 -0000

Looks good but there is also a smaller bearish rounded top from the July 15 low til now that appears to be retracing. The advance/decline is worsening so we may retest the lows of the day..fingers crossed.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/america_movil.htm

kleenup2 — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 14:29:07 -0000

What makes you bullish on gold? The trend is your friend and it is weaker than the overall market. Told you guys that it is the best short play going right now...its giving up 2% per day...don't catch a falling gold brick.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/america_movil.htm

kleenup2 — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 14:45:22 -0000

Look at a longer term chart(last 5 to six years) and they have been more directly correlated than inversely correlated. Inflation pushes up the price of all asset classes(some more than others once you add in momentum speculators). Many erroneous theories and notions have been thrown about on CNBC et al about the markets. Decoupling is a myth, peak oil is a myth, and the emerging markets are a myth. The weak dollar is a myth...I travel quite frequently to Europe, Asia , and Central America and see first hand that the US is still in a better position than any other nation to handle a recession.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/shorting_russell_ags.htm

kleenup2 — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 15:35:29 -0000

Lot of data tomorrow morning...may be a flush out tomorrow bu the PPI numbers will not be good but the recent oil and commodities plunge will mute those and give some a sign for hope. But sentiment #s also come out and today's action and near term and long term indicators are all signaling a total retest of the lows on a closing basis soon.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/09/christmas_time_in_hell.htm

kleenup2 — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 12:38:46 -0000

FWIW...the best short opportunity right now is in 30 T-bonds...you guys can thank me later.