Disqus - Latest Comments for tipguy

Re: Hyderabad Industries: Stock Analysis for Long Term Investments

tipguy — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 11:24:29 -0000

Hello Born Free,

This is the kind of discussion and language of comment that helps move forward.

Thank you for acknowledging that analysis shows both sides of the coin (to certain extent). Your comments are valid w.r.t. (1) putting to test your ideas; (2) HDIL vis-à-vis changed scenario of Indian economy; (3) looking towards future. There is nothing wrong in your observations and they make sense to me. But that’s one perspective.

While I attempted/discussed on both sides of the coin, my conclusion was it fails consistency and sustainability (one of the key ingredients I look for). May be I did not explicitly state this, and probably that’s the mistake.

Few other aspects that were not mentioned in this article on Moneyvidya blog, but have mentioned many times on my personal blog -- When I think holistically, I think there are better opportunities than HDIL where I would like to put my capital to work. Another hypothetical way I think about this is; if the owners are looking for large capital, and I was presented an opportunity to invest a large portion of my wealth, would I put my money? In this case, no, I would not put my money.

Another way to think about this is, in essence, I am putting my analysis to test.

Furthermore, in my viewpoint, performance of the share in stock market is not what I look for. I look for “what is in for me”. Over a period of time, do I expect xx% return from the investment? Markets will do what it has to do. I do not have any control over it. So why chase something that I cannot control. And, yes, there are many times I feel I may have missed those so-called multi baggers. That’s the negative side of my investment approach which I am willing to live by. I could very well be completely wrong for not buying HDIL.

But what’s the implication of me being wrong? Stock zooms and becomes a multi bagger. I lose the opportunity for good returns. This is the risk I take because that’s under my control. It is my risk.

But what if my observations are right, and HDIL does not provide me the xx% return I am looking for? I again lose the opportunity for good return. I could have bought something else instead of HDIL. This is under my own control. This is risk I am not willing to take.

Regarding stock market being an ultimate teacher – I would tend to have a different viewpoint. But that’s a different discussion.

Best Wishes,

Re: Hyderabad Industries: Stock Analysis for Long Term Investments

tipguy — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 11:06:11 -0000

Born Free,

The issue with your comments is, you want to keep harping about grapes. AND all this time I am talking about apples (and not grapes). I hope you understand this line. These are two different things.

In your first comment you tried to teach me “reasonable knowledge of basic business characteristics”. That’s how you start you comment, AND ignored that I did make an observation about turnaround vis-à-vis growth of construction industry and Indian economy. Which is same as yours? Isn’t it?

Now in your second comment you are trying to teach me “how to eat my pudding” and challenging me for 6 months. AND ignored last two paragraphs explaining why I am not buying.

I will request you to read last two paragraphs (including the disclaimer). And after you understand its meaning, may be than we can discuss pros or cons, or fair valuations, like two decent human beings, and not throw challenges like two dogs on the street.

Best Wishes,

Re: Hyderabad Industries: Stock Analysis for Long Term Investments

tipguy — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 23:17:59 -0000

Hello BornFree,

Like your name suggests, you are free to interpret any analysis as you may wish. We do not have to agree on same thing. And thanks for the giving me tutorial about basic business characteristics.

I do not think you understand my objectives and hence you are not able to understand this in proper context. How can I argue when you think (1) operating cash flow below debt is fantastic; (2) margins in high single digits-to-low double digits is great; (3) the last five years you mentioned, EPS were 13.63, 52.73, 18.73, 18.86, 59.08. You think these are consistent and great.

For my hard earned money to invest, I can surely find better companies that these numbers.

Thanks for your comments, I enjoyed reading your perspective.

Best Wishes,

Re: Performance

tipguy — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 10:10:12 -0000

Rohit,

There is a perceived notion that moneyvidya.com site is oriented toward traders and speculative stock picks. The long term value focused investors do not have any role to pay here. However, I believe it provides an excellent platform for all types of investors to be rated among the peers on a community basis. Yes, it would help to have a feature that allows removal of stocks at a future date. Although, I think that needs to be bounded by some aspect otherwise there will be a tendency of not closing winning position to keep ratings/returns higher.

Congratulations on the performance. It does show that ideas discussed on your blog are highly rated by an independent platform. It gives an independent rating to your ideas. Everybody touts their own horns, but there are very few to demonstrate it like you did.

Best Wishes,
TIP Guy

Re: Operators to Generate IMEI Number for Chinese Handsets in India

tipguy — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 06:47:23 -0000

But government can restrict crap coming into the country. That's what it is supposed to do. And honestly, it really does it well (assuming if it has will to do it)....

Re: Operators to Generate IMEI Number for Chinese Handsets in India

tipguy — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 01:45:12 -0000

Yeah that's good. But then you are promoting the Chinese crap in India. We are saying to Chinese, yeah keep sending crappy illegal stuff, we would be happy to buy it. That's what I call economic insurgency.

Instead of showing middle finger to Chinese, we are more interested in fighting a failed state. Because it gets more votes! Bashing china does not get votes.