Disqus - Friends of timprophet

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/02/08/shooting_gallery.htm

Salt — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 21:53:41 -0000

Futures are selling to get amateurs to buy PUTS and sell short. There will be quick and maybe deep draw downs lasting only a day or hours over the next few weeks as we rally across the board. A floor has been formed around the 800/8000 level, the rally is already upon us and will accelerate. Use any pullback to get long. I look for SPY to reach 1050 and DOW to reach the10500 area over the next several weeks. I do love looking at the charts and reading the commentary!

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/02/16/heterogeniety.htm

Salt — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 00:34:28 -0000

Gold is rising along with the dollar! Strange, but that's been the way lately.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/02/17/plain_and_simple.htm

Salt — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 15:39:49 -0000

We will hit 650, probably even 400.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/05/two_possibilities.htm

Salt — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 22:43:47 -0000

Just for the record, I am hoping for a nice pull back in the morning, I have decided to go as LONG as I have ever been, with options anyway! I will be buying Sept., Oct., CALLS on DDM , SSO, DIA, SPY, etc. way out of the money, (cheap), about $40,000+ in these as I expect DOW 13000 and SP 1300 before year end. I will also buy GDX calls, Sept @50 strike, and Jan 2010 @ 65 Strike, about $40,000+ here also. I expect GDX to hit 90 before the end of the year. When this plays out, I will be looking at about 2000%+ gains in about six+ months. That I can be happy with. Then I can just sit back and do nothing for six months. Good luck to you all!

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/05/two_possibilities.htm

Salt — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 00:01:18 -0000

I posted here to have a verifiable time stamp to prove my point, there may be some more down, but those options will pay handsomely, at least I am betting on it, I'll check back with ya'll in about six months. The biggest rally in 80 years is about to begin, go long and hold on!

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/15/morgan_stanley_forecast.htm

Salt — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 22:07:09 -0000

Constantly changing their predictions should show that either they are misleading people or have no idea of what they are doing! I hope this post is still accessible at that time! 2010 may see some of the lagging sectors such as oil completing a top and then it will be all down hill. We will be experiencing a Bear Market Rally of proportions equal to the recent decline for the next six months or so. When everyone is declaring the recession is over in about six months, the bear will be back!

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/17/my_jobs_story.htm

Salt — Mon, 18 May 2009 01:14:05 -0000

By TK - "I don't think the speed of the next phase will be as explosive as late March, but I do think a climb to anywhere from 1050 to 1200"

I am glad to see you are getting on board! I still think we will surpass your goal and wind up closer to 1300.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/19/not_want.htm

Salt — Tue, 19 May 2009 22:07:02 -0000

TK - "my "big beef" with the market is the lack of a theme. "
Doesn't nine weeks UP kinda make a theme? There is a correction still coming, there is just too much complacency with VIX falling so far so fast. Look for a sharp correction to add to your positions Everything is going up from here. A huge rally is now in the works, we just need to refuel with fear before we go higher. Don't lose patience, they are trying to get the amateurs to unload before the next surge.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/22/the_tumbling_dollar.htm

Salt — Fri, 22 May 2009 12:31:42 -0000

My humble opinion on the dollar, in the short term, is that it has fallen too far, too fast, this will cause it to spike up, this spike will give us a drop in equities which will drive VIX higher, that will be your cue to get long in this market. Over the rest of this year, or at least into early autumn, the dollar will fall and make a lower low around 70. Then late this year, maybe Oct., everything reverses, the dollar heads back up, and equities will re-enter a bear market with an ultimate low around 500 S&P.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/26/how_the_pros_do_it.htm

Salt — Sat, 30 May 2009 19:17:12 -0000

I think the dollar may get a pop up for a week or two, this would coincide with a drop in equities, but I see the dollar making new lows by autumn. By then the bear market will resume and the dollar should head much higher.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/26/how_the_pros_do_it.htm

Salt — Sat, 30 May 2009 19:22:09 -0000

Gold may suffer a little over the next couple of weeks if equities experience a pull back, which I think is likely. Gold will not suffer as much though.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/26/how_the_pros_do_it.htm

Salt — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 19:13:14 -0000

I think todays move was a sucker rally to draw in late arrivals before a sharp 10% correction, yes, I believe we will correct about 10% in the next two or three weeks. However, I have held all my longs I bought in March, and have only hedged with calls on TLT, if you plan to buy in this correction watch VIX as an indicator, if you are long and up more than 10%, just watch and don't let it get you concerned. Just my opinion, I am not responsible for your trading decisions, thanks and good luck.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/26/how_the_pros_do_it.htm

Salt — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 23:43:14 -0000

Anything is possible, and like I said, I am still holding my long positions, I have only hedged with TLT calls. There are several reasons I think a pullback is coming, your optimism is another good one, thanks.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/26/how_the_pros_do_it.htm

Salt — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 23:35:10 -0000

1000 by Friday? Are you talking about the price of gold? I think this is the start of a correction that will last a week or two, followed by a very rapid recovery. Gold will also take a hit during this recovery. The fact that everyone is still optimistic means that we must fall farther. Whether this correction lasts a week or until the end of June, the recovery afterward will be dramatic.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/26/how_the_pros_do_it.htm

Salt — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 14:19:13 -0000

Nominal new highs yes, to draw in more amateurs, but not 300 or 400 points higher, there is not enough fear to go that much higher, in my opinion.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/26/how_the_pros_do_it.htm

Salt — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 20:08:12 -0000

I try not to mess with leveraged ETF's, there's too much deterioration due to the leverage. I am also not sure about what the banking sector might do.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/26/how_the_pros_do_it.htm

Salt — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 12:42:21 -0000

Buying options on a leveraged ETF is crazy, not saying it won't work in a short term situation but that's too much for me.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/26/how_the_pros_do_it.htm

Salt — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 21:58:13 -0000

Not necessarily, TLT will top before equities bottom, it should just move above it's 200 day MA.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/26/how_the_pros_do_it.htm

Salt — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 19:11:15 -0000

I don't try to predict market behavior on an hourly or daily basis, it's too unpredictable. Getting the direction over a weekly and monthly basis is hard enough. I think we have more downside and the chance of any upside is minimal until we wash out all the latecomers that bought in the last 6 weeks or so. There will be fear in the market and talk of retesting the March lows before I would recommend going long.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/26/how_the_pros_do_it.htm

Salt — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 20:39:17 -0000

In March, I bought calls for Sept., Oct., Nov., and Jan. '10. I did sell some of them recently. I also recently bought puts on the SPX and calls on TLT for June and July only. I will then buy calls on GDX.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/26/how_the_pros_do_it.htm

Salt — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 05:13:09 -0000

I don't think you need to do that, but I have been wrong before. Sell them one week before expiration, but I would hold them as is for another week or two.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/26/how_the_pros_do_it.htm

Salt — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:47:26 -0000

Well, I have been traveling and haven't been looking at much, but will check it out. I do think fear is too low and that a pullback in equities is still ahead. With a 10% drop and a surge in VIX we can still get this rally much higher, but I am getting impatient, hopefully it will make its move soon.

Re: A Reader Responds

Salt — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 23:58:01 -0000

I think Nick has it right, except the top will be higher than anyone is imagining right now, there's a lot of money on the sidelines from people that pulled out Oct. through March. This bear market rally will not end until all amateurs are gleefully jumping back in with both feet .

Re: A Reader Responds

Salt — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:01:52 -0000

If the money is on the sidelines, then it is NOT in the market and did not fuel this rally. Re-read my comments, I did not say this rally has been fueled by cash from the sidelines, I said there is a lot of money (that was removed from the market in Oct.- March) still on the sidelines, NOT in equities at all at this time, and not reflected in your stats. This money is in traditional "safe" havens, and will be lured back into "equities" over the next few months. The amount of money sitting in safe havens has nothing to do with the stats you reference.

Re: Stocks or Options

Salt — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 19:14:48 -0000

"the low 800s are going to be here in no time." And they will be history just about as fast, as we experience the greatest rally of our lifetimes! Someone doubted that there is any cash left to fuel this market higher.