Disqus - Friends of thyname

Re: Riders on the Storm

Greg — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 01:24:48 -0000

Tim,
I just wanted to comment on WAMU. I read their last financial statment. The thing to watch is the extent of what are termed level three assets. Basically these are the assets where management is subjectively assigning a value. My guess is a lot of their CDO, Subprime, and Option Arm debt winds up in this category. Bottom line, these assets may not be worth much. In the case of WAMU, they have a huge amount of level 3 assets. If they were marked down substantially say 40%, they would probably be bankrupt. With WAMU's exposure to jumbo nonconforming loans in California, and their option ARM exposure, I doubt they will be able to stay a float.

Re: Hoping the Economy Blows Jobs

Greg — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 00:39:50 -0000

The BLS methodology relies heavily on past job creation so in essence a lot of the supposed jobs being reported as new jobs are really just estimated jobs. Their methodology tends to miss the down turn in jobs, which is probably by design. I'd guess it will show a down turn in jobs, but not enough to send stocks in a tailspin just yet. As real data replaces the estimates the job picture will get worse.

Re: Our Market Has Finally Arrived

Greg — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 00:59:51 -0000

You just got to love it. Sounds like everyone is ready to take advantage of any pop up next week. It will be interesting what the PPT comes up with.

Re: I Couldn't Do It

Greg — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 18:58:46 -0000

today was really fun. IWM runs up tight to the Fib, them completely pukes after that. I set continget exits, & by the time I drive to work I'd made a pile of cash. If it wasn't for a bunch of meeting's I'd got back in on the second bullish run that failed. Oh well 20% return in 2 hours works for me.

Re: New Range?

Greg — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 09:46:35 -0000

I agree. Somewhere we are due to see a bounce.

Re: New Range?

Greg — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 09:53:15 -0000

oops the minute chart I'm watching shows it heading south.

Re: New Range?

Greg — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 09:57:01 -0000

do you mean 60 min intraday?

Re: New Range?

Greg — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 10:05:26 -0000

Thanks, I wasn't sure. BTW what technical line were you looking at?

Re: New Range?

Greg — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 10:08:53 -0000

Thanks

Re: New Range?

Greg — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 10:11:22 -0000

Call me chicken, but I'm going to sit today out. It's just too far outside my comfort zone to trade.

Re: New Range?

Greg — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 10:17:01 -0000

Do you mean Price Channel with a 3 day period?

Re: BX Down More than Half

Greg — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 12:57:40 -0000

What amazes me is BAC seemed smart enough to limit their exposure to Subprime, but why on earth would they then want to buy their way into the worst of it. Somebody had a brain fart to come up with that idea.

Re: Death by Whipsaw

Greg — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 13:49:05 -0000

Did anybody notice the end of day sell off yesterday represented a neckline break of a head & shoulder pattern on the 10 min IWM chart? I didn't spot that until late last night.

Re: Death by Whipsaw

Greg — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 16:07:25 -0000

dang, I went for a walk, came back & it looks like Houston triggered a launch sequence on the IWM. I'm glad some of you were able to play it. Does anyone know what brought out the bull's?

Re: A Bounce. GOOD.

Greg — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 18:08:46 -0000

I had asked if anyone had noticed the I intraday h&s earlier in a post. I was curious if anyone had traded based on that pattern. I didn't spot until after yesterdays market close.

Re: Hammer Time

Greg — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 00:11:42 -0000

I keep a long term monthly SPY chart going all the time. What I see is the MACD printed a sell signal this last December, and the time before that was in March 2000. just preceeding the tech bubble pop. Also the Monthly SPY chart printed a Diamond top, and here in January we exited the diamond to the down side. My read is the Bear market has officially begun.

Re: Hammer Time

Greg — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 09:18:55 -0000

If you follow Tim's post, and look at yesterday's daily stock candle, it printed a hammer. Generally TA would indicate yesterday marked the bottom. Personally, one of my basic trading rules is to figure out the overall direction of the market, and only place trades in that direction. While we are really due for a bounce, this market is so negative any bounce could turn on a dime. I just plan to wait for it, & when the bounce fades buy puts.

Re: What Could He Say?

Greg — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 09:36:45 -0000

Tim, are we not even going to get any sustained bounce before this market continues to fall?

Re: What Could He Say?

Greg — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 09:54:49 -0000

Your tolerance for risk beats mine. Good luck

Re: The New Normal

Greg — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:50:36 -0000

Tim et al,
Couple thoughts. How about doing a poll like you did for who we use to trade, but instead ask your readers whether they think the FED will cut 25 basis points or 50. If we see a 25 basis point cut, the market will likely tank, 50, I'd bet we'd see 200 points plus increase on the Dow. I can't decide which I think is most likely. Part of me says 25 basis points because the FED doesn't really want to mess up the dollar exchange rates to quickly, and that leaves them room to look like they are doing something by continuing to cut. Now if I was the FED, I think I'd cut 50 basis points, because if you think a rate cut can help goose the economy, then I'd want to do so, because I think we're really heading over a cliff. Anyway, what do the rest of you think the cut will be?

Re: The New Normal

Greg — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 23:50:08 -0000

I'd be careful with that stretegy. I tried it not too long ago, and just ended up with losses that offset other gains. I got a little ahead, but not much. Tim's point is really good. decide on what you think the overall market direction is, and look for opportunities in that direction. I think sometimes arrogance can get in the way, and we try to make money in a whipsaw market which is really tough. I was at a loss as to which direction we were really going to see today, and only did a small Call trade this morning with very tight stops. It was a winner and made my target, but I'm not crazy about buying calls in a down market. I guess I probably only did it for the rush.

Re: The New Normal

Greg — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 09:17:08 -0000

Take a look at a monthly SPY chart with a MACD. It printed a sell signal in DEC. It last did so in March 2000. Personally that works for me when you consider all negatives in the marketplace.

Re: Boom Shankar

Greg — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 12:05:39 -0000

did anybody notice it looks like a possible H&S pattern developing on the 10 min IWM?

Re: Boom Shankar

Greg — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 12:19:27 -0000

looks to me like a bear flag, which when it breaks down will likely complete the H&S. I'm thinking it could fall to 68.15 if it breaks 70.60. Drat, I'm on my phone, which is slow to trade with. Oh well. I hope some of you can play it.

Re: Chat!

Greg — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 17:50:29 -0000

my vote is the chat sucks. Sarfari problems, & no log as far as I can tell.