Disqus - Latest Comments for thomasborgsmidt

Re: Kantone und Energie: Streit um Besteuerung der Wasserkraft spitzt sich zu - Schweiz Nachrichten - NZZ.ch

thomasborgsmidt — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 01:45:49 -0000

Die stromversorgung ist falsch organisiert. Ein Wasserkraftwerk ist kein Profitzentrum aber eine Kostenstelle.
Richtig wäre ein Stromversorgungsgesellschaft die die Kunden Strom liefern und de Rechnung erstellen an den Kunden/Endabnehmern. Den Überschuss entsteht von dem Umsatzt abzüglich kosten zu Kraftwerken und Lieferungen von z.B. deutsche solarenergi.
Wasserkraftstrom ist eine edlere - und deshalb teuere Energie.

Investitionen und abschreibungen sollen erst auf Konzernebene auftauchen. Die einzelne Kraftwerk ist allein mit den variablen Kosten zu belasten.

Ganz banale Kostenpolitik und interne Rechnungswesen laut Betriebswirtschaftswissenschaft.

Nicht überraschend ist jede Erkendtnis entgangen.

Re: Zypriotische Banken: Der Inselstaat hat auf das falsche Pferd gesetzt - Reflexe Nachrichten - NZZ.ch

thomasborgsmidt — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 17:43:04 -0000

Warum sollte eigenlich Deutschland für die russische Spekulanten zahlen? Die Russen hätten lieber ein bischen vorsichtiger mit ihrem Geld umgehen. Sie hätte ja den Geld in der Schweiz vergeuden können!

Re: EU Scuttles Deutsche Boerse, NYSE Merger

thomasborgsmidt — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 03:04:02 -0000

It is probably not a coincidence that Germany pushes forward with the Tobin tax: They want to control stockexchange, not be controlled by them.

The London Stock exchange faces difficult times. When a French midget and a German hausfrau stand together (her in no-heeled shoes - Sarkozy is really of very low stature) better start saying your Dow Jones.

Re: Is Gold The Most Valuable Currency In The World?

thomasborgsmidt — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 05:26:50 -0000

Well gold is not different from any other type of money.
I know it is a common concept; but what happens.

IN times of crisis people flee into gold - often without actually obtaining the physical gold.and relying on gold certificates. How can people trust there is actual physical gold to cover all the certificates?

Otherwise gold is a measurement of value. And as all other measurements of value liable to go illiquid.
Gold prices are going up (providing employment in rural Alaska - splendid), but will the buyers be able to sell that gold later at purcase price?

Gold is fine for nations to have as a reserve fund in case of war. But otherwise assigning any preferential place to gold? No.

In China and India gold is popular as a reserve - and in many countries it substitutes deposits in banks. Gold price says more about mistrust in banks than anything else.

Re: DoD Budget Cuts are Austerity by another Name

thomasborgsmidt — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 00:25:28 -0000

I do agree that defence cuts is an austerity programme. The question is what cuts can be avoided when the military takes the lions share:
Here the obvious candidate is the National Health Programme which will take over the military's role as main regulator of federal spending.

The fortunate thing is that military spending at the cold war level is not necessary. There has been some attempts to write up the Chinese threat to Brezniev Soviet Level. While Chinese intentions might be as sinister as the Soviets - the ability (current and projectable) is far less.

Re: China’s Relentless Appetite for Commodities

thomasborgsmidt — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 00:15:55 -0000

I very much agree. There is no real destinction between consumption and investment. The pyramid builders in ancient Egypt just might have classified their projects as investments, but .....

Re: Has China Defeated U.S. To Be Called A Superpower State? [INFOGRAPHIC]

thomasborgsmidt — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 00:00:48 -0000

The interesting thing is that investment is ½ of the domestic economy. When investment collapses - then the entire economy collapses - I'm not talking docile bankrupcies - I really mean collapse.

Re: Gold for Oil: India and Iran Ditch Dollar – Report

thomasborgsmidt — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 19:02:08 -0000

Im more interested in the oilprice measured in gold.

Re: IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast

thomasborgsmidt — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 15:17:56 -0000

The really omnious here is the projected drop in Chinese growth.

Re: CHART: New World Oil Demand Blasts Past Old World

thomasborgsmidt — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 15:08:20 -0000

That is not surprising!
1) The energy sources in the "new" world are exhausted - just look at the mining accidents in Chinese coal mines. This means that imported energy not only has to fuel growth; but also has to REPLACE domestic production.
2) The continued "investments" in infrastructure is energy intensive - as opposed to the basic repair and maintenance of the Western world. F.i. replacing a bridge gives a lot of steel that only has to be melted down to give new steel girders - as opposed to entirely newbuild, where steel has to be extracted from ore.
3) The underpriced exports of India and China rests on non-payment of labour.
But that production still has to pay for the raw materials. These prices might very well go up.

Re: 3 Huge Recent Economic Developments You May Have Missed

thomasborgsmidt — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 17:05:59 -0000

I hadn't seen that oil-export thing coming. But that bodes ill for the BRIK-countries.

Health care: Well, that does not surprise me.
The people retiring now are considerably healthier than their parents.

Re: Roubini Sees ‘Significant’ 2012 Slowdown in Chinese Economy - Businessweek

thomasborgsmidt — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 13:37:01 -0000

Erhh. What about Chinese imports?
The balance of trade is vitally important as Chinese present currency policy depends on being a net exporter (improved competitiveness with undervalued currency) or net importer (shift to overvalued currency).
When that shift occurs it will kill exports rapidly and growth, as energy, food, and steel will give inflation. Which again will jerk back at interest rates.

Re: http://blog.jparsons.net/2008/11/what-didnt-cause-housing-bubble.html

thomasborgsmidt — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 13:15:37 -0000

What makes the housing bubble so disconcerting is the precise similarity between different places on earth. Take this example from Denmark:
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/332...
(They are not inflation adjusted and the price is in DKK pr. square meter)
But notice the syncronity and similarity of shape!

When will the drop stop? It might not be a drop as such; but a long whining petering out. What I don't believe is a reversal to long term trend. Simply because society and economy has changed.
Industrial work will return to the USA; but not to the extend they left. The big infrastructure investments have been made. There is no serious war in sight (the Chinese will implode before they can become a serious threat) - not that the Al Qaida's will go away; but they are no japanese fleet of 1941.

Re: GMO: Something’s Fishy in China

thomasborgsmidt — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 20:40:43 -0000

It is well known in antropology, that a culture under pressure unite under a centralised and strong leadership, that is attributed spiritual excellence.

Re: The White House Has Been Bragging About Falling Wages In The US

thomasborgsmidt — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 03:07:12 -0000

The real problem are the prices following down as well?

Re: The Intelligent Investor: One Cure for Accounting Shenanigans

thomasborgsmidt — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 20:19:45 -0000

Well as an investor you should always be very critical of how "well done" the cooking of books is.
Every report has some leeway as to what your CAN do - but inside that, there is a lot of thing, you actually have great freedom.

Personally I always start with considering the profit the LEAST interesting number on a balance sheet.
Accountants have all sorts of ratios and rules of thumb. I rarely use them because the general applicability is limited.
Changeing auditors doesn't help regularly: When a company changes auditor - sell shares: This might be an indication that they have met tricks that even they won't eat.

Re: Is China Now Number One In Economy?

thomasborgsmidt — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 20:11:22 -0000

Well one of the problems is that the consumer basket is rather different in USA and China. As far as I have been able to acertain 30% is the (low) estimate of food in a chinese consumers budget. In the West you are hard pressed to get above 10%.

Another factor is that the prices are subsidized in China. And many are taxed in the West.

I also suspect, that f.i. health cost are not counted in China - and in the USA they are in the health insurance - in Europe they are in taxes.

As to the measurement of the GDP have they taken it from the production side or the consumption side?

Still another problem: In the correction for im- and exports - what exchange rate have they used? Where is the loss due to the transition from import to consumption due to subsidies?

Re: Pakistan to Produce Gas – by Burning Underground Coal

thomasborgsmidt — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 22:16:07 -0000

Sounds downright dangerous!
Hydrogen and carbonmonooxide under high pressure and high temperature - the next thing they want will be nuclear weapons. Oh - they've got those.

Re: Germany May Be on Brink of Recession

thomasborgsmidt — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 08:22:08 -0000

I find it particularly interesting that investments in plants and mashinery is up 8.3%

That is strange considering a recession is the subject of the article.
Then it is probably more recession brought about solely by the financial markets. I mean - how are these investments financed? By plowed back profits?

Re: World War III: US, NATO, Israel War Plans To Attack Iran

thomasborgsmidt — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 17:39:50 -0000

Why ? After reading that I felt so wonderfully sane!

Re: The End of the Debt Supercycle

thomasborgsmidt — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 12:14:33 -0000

One of the better articles.

Re: World War III: US, NATO, Israel War Plans To Attack Iran

thomasborgsmidt — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 11:38:50 -0000

Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
The crucial point is: Is there sufficient intelligence as to the whereabouts of the Iranian nuclear weapons? That is not a piece of information that is likely to be in the public domain.

Let's face it! Nuclear weapons are outdated at least in a tactical context. When precision guided munition can be dropped into ventilation shafts - then 500 lb of TNT in a closed space is PLENTY!
The other things is - you have "daisy cutters" dropped out of C-130'ies (I don't recall how much explosives they are) - you have "bunker-busters" that count the number of walls passed in penetration - before exploding. The problem is knowing exactly where the nukes are - at a given time.

What does give pause for reflection is that Israel to my astonishment has been talking publicly about knocking out persian nuclear weapons. Normally Israel does not talk about such stuff - they hit and explain afterwards - perhaps.
Does this rethoric conceal real intelligence? To be honest: I have not the faintest idea.

An all out conventional war with Iran isn't very likely. The terrain is much different from f.i. Iraq. And Iran is four times bigger in population.

The next thing is talking about the involvement of Russia, China, India and bloody Venezuela - I found especially Venezuela and Cuba a nice touch.

Then the assertive arguments that it is ALL due to oil! Splendid with quotations of percentages when the strategic reserves of the USA is not known. We really have drafted the boogieman into this.

This is not to belittle the seriousness, but to get it into proportion. It is tense enough as it is.

As to making military plans for an attack: I sincerely hope so - that is what the military do: Make plans for everything - I even suspect they dust off the plans for reconquest of Britain at regular intervals in Pentagon - version 3.937b.
The naval concentration in the area could also be ascribed to the fight against piracy - and I don't think the liberation of Iranian hostages taken by pirates is a coincidence.
http://jp.dk/udland/article...
The hostages are now recieving medical attention and their boat has been reposessed and is towed back.

That is not to say that military action against is excluded in one way or the other - that is why the USNavy has carriers. The only thing worrying me is we haven't heard anything from CVN-69 Eisenhower since October. We cannot exclude the possibility, that Iran does something stupid.

But WWIII? That is over the top!

Re: Doctors in U.S. going broke

thomasborgsmidt — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 14:13:09 -0000

There is a rule of thumb in medicine: If a treatment works, there is only one and it is cheap.
Penicillin is dirt cheap - and it works.

Cancer drugs are expensive and they don't work very well.
But the bankrupcy of medical professionals does point to a need for refocusing and concentrate on being a doctor. Tell the patient honestly what can be gained by a treatment.

Re: Slovakia’s Nuclear Schizophrenia – Shut Down, Continue As Usual, or Boldly Go – Where?

thomasborgsmidt — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 13:59:36 -0000

The basic problem with nuclear power is that it is NOT cheaper than coal (especially) and oil.
The distribution network of a highly centralised powergeneration is not cheap.

Think of pictures of shop floors from around 1900. One big steam engine supplying belt drives and a belt drive to each machine. What was gained in the efficiency of one steam engine was lost in transmission - and idling losses.

The slovac problem is that the country is landlocked. To my knowledge - they do not have much waterpower. So they have made themselves dependend on ONE power source.
I'm generally not impressed with enviromental freaks - and windmills will be a loss generator; but it is an alternative and a supplement that eases dependence.

If you include district heating in coal fuelled powerplants the efficiency of coal/oil generated power is actually not bad - and with modern smokecleaning you can install the plants close to the user.

Re: The 23 Best Countries for Work-Life Balance (We Are Number 23) - Derek Thompson - Business - The Atlantic

thomasborgsmidt — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 15:53:28 -0000

Yeah, but that is exactly what is not going to last. The childcare is getting more and more expensive - and there are fewer and fewer children.
You can't raise taxes to pay for the luxuries, because the taxpayers with high income are those deepest in debt. The reason the population of Copenhagen is growing is due to childbirths and the parents cannot get out of the two room flat, because they are insolvent and will never leave for the suburbs.
The education system is simply a daycare center for geriatric teenagers - there isn't being done much studying there. Kids leave high school - that can't read or write. It is simply a job creation project for teachers (that can't read or write either).
The problem is that unemployment is hitting families the hardest.