Disqus - Latest Comments for thepigman

Re: Lack Of Participation

thepigman — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 20:54:38 -0000

P.S. Also happened to see your astute comment on "three peaks and a domed
house" on Zero Hedge. Can't imagine why Futia doesn't see it that way.

Re: Lack Of Participation

thepigman — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 20:39:20 -0000

Well, Mole, I don't post anything 'cause you're doing the job and I don't need too.
I'll chime in if you ever go off the reservation. Not doing a lot on the long side and don't plan to until the HFT guys either disappear for lack of volume or eat each other alive.
Keep up the good work. Your Soylent scenarios have been excellent.

Re: Above the Supercycle Channel Again

thepigman — Fri, 02 Apr 2010 21:09:53 -0000

Think about it. We all know the recovery is a sham. Now think about that same sham with rising rates.

Re: Above the Supercycle Channel Again

thepigman — Fri, 02 Apr 2010 20:56:22 -0000

As the short selling Treasury banksters rip into Mom and Pop's bond funds, Mom and Pop will freak and liquidate ALL asset classes never to return to the markets.

Re: Confusion Reigns

thepigman — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 07:11:32 -0000

Shanky...Rosenberg has figured out the supply at the long end of the US curve (10 year and beyond)
is at a 30 year low. Direct bidders took down a record amount yesterday. I am as bearish on
everything else (corporates, munis, equities) as can be....but this may be an interesting stat,
no? The record spread will end on the short end yields coming up while the long end yields are
capped for lack of supply. Beware the TBT trade.

Re: E-minis

thepigman — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 11:33:47 -0000

And we don't even get an economy out of it.....we get this fake thing with chronic
unemployment.

Re: E-minis

thepigman — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 11:31:03 -0000

Obama and Bernanke are finishing the dollar....Completely ruining the standard of living
for everyone with any savings to pay wall street bonuses and underwater mortgagees....this
is the biggest robbery of all time

Re: Google, Exxon, Jnk, Amazon, qqqq

thepigman — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 09:44:06 -0000

How GS ramped the market with your money. It's good to be the king.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id...

Re: Its Going to Come Unglued

thepigman — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 08:33:53 -0000

I think the central bankers have been under the rally (greenshoots ain't got
nuthin to do with it) but about to shut off the flow before they screw up global trade with any more currency debasement (printing) The excess currency created has slopped into and is juicing the markets to delay/slow down deflation/deleveraging/debt destruction in a play for time. But you
can't debase currency in a straight line or you get a crisis. To wit, the risk assets will be sold
for some months and currencies re-bought....Rinse and repeat over the next 10 years or so.

Re: E-minis

thepigman — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 08:58:41 -0000

Christ....you're just extending the trend line and backfilling the waves into it.
I can get you a job on Wall Street.

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 September

thepigman — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 07:02:13 -0000

Somehow that makes sense if the phoniest sector finally goes down. It really galls me that because mark to market went out the window, the banks get to report fictional earnings and those fictional earnings flow into the SPX, so what do we get? Maybe 10% of the entire SPX earnings and future estimates are unadulterated, mythical crap. (At least in the 1930's they told the truth, lol)

Re: Up-Sloping Trendlines

thepigman — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:29:44 -0000

They bought alright but they're done.

Re: Up-Sloping Trendlines

thepigman — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 12:03:09 -0000

Absolutely...but rather than ME saying it's an echo bubble of last year, it's
significant to post Zhu saying it (imho) since nobody in the US is willing to own up
to the same statement. As a trader, you're like the last guy in the world that anybody has to warn about bubbles...but others haven't been around the block long enough
to know that some morning the market can open down 500 when they went in
long the day before for a day trade, so i figure they want to be cognizant.
I used to be a trader , but now I'm old and
as you know "there are bold traders", there are old traders, but there are no old
and bold traders". Heh, heh

Re: Up-Sloping Trendlines

thepigman — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 11:42:50 -0000

Look, as a trader, you trade regardless of fundamentals. As an investor, I don't.
So it's old news to you that you're trading a bubble....well, it's old news to me that
you're trading a bubble, too. There's no demand under energy, mining and commodities.
But perhaps it isn't so apparent to others that we haven't been trading fundamentals
since at least SPX 700- 800, so I put it out there for them. Okay?

Re: Up-Sloping Trendlines

thepigman — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 07:14:43 -0000

It's a global echo bubble. But you've got to go to China to get the truth these days.

>Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of China Ltd., which led the nation’s $1.1 trillion lending spree in the first half, said ample liquidity has caused “bubbles” in stocks, commodities and real estate.

“The potential risk is that a lot of liquidity goes to the asset market,” Vice President Zhu Min said in an interview in Dalian today. “So you see asset bubbles in commodities, stocks and real estate, not only in China, but everywhere.”

China’s record credit expansion, which helped the country’s economy expand 7.9 percent in the second quarter, has raised concerns that bank loans have been diverted and used to buy stocks and real estate, fueling unsustainable gains in equity and property markets.

“There’s no way for the real economy to absorb so much liquidity,” said Liu Yuhui, a Beijing-based economist at Chinese Academy of Social Science. ”Policymakers in China and around the world are well aware of the harm that could do, but they are unwilling to sacrifice short-term growth and wean the economy from addiction to the stimulus policies.”

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index has gained 61 percent this year, compared with a 20 percent increase in the MSCI World Index of 1,659 companies. House prices in China’s 70 biggest cities rose at the fastest pace in 11 months on record lending and climbing confidence, according to a National Bureau of Statistics report today.

Pushing Ahead

Bank of China advanced 1 trillion yuan of new loans in the first six months, more than any other Chinese lender and the gross domestic product of New Zealand. The Beijing-based bank, the nation’s third-largest, said last month it plans to slow credit growth in the rest of the year and improve loan quality.

China’s Premier Wen Jiabao said today the nation “cannot and will not” pull back from policies designed to revive the world’s third-biggest economy.

Stimulus measures have “yielded initial results and we have arrested the downturn in economic growth,” Wen said in the keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, a city in northeastern China.

China Construction Bank Corp., the nation’s second-largest, said last month it will cut new lending by 70 percent in the second half from six months earlier to avoid a surge in bad debt. Chairman Guo Shuqing said excess cash in the banking system has led to asset bubbles.

An estimated 1.16 trillion yuan ($170 billion) of loans were invested in stocks in the first five months of this year, China Business news reported June 29, citing Wei Jianing, a deputy director at the Development and Research Center under the State Council.

Stricter Regulation

The China Banking Regulatory Commission said on Sept. 3 it will implement stricter capital requirements for banks. Lenders were also required to raise reserves to 150 percent of their non-performing loans by the end of this year, up from 134.8 percent at the end of June.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell into a so-called bear market last month on concern slowing lending growth and tighter capital requirements would derail a recovery in the world’s third-biggest economy. The gauge has bounced back this month, rising 9 percent.

New loans in July were less than a quarter of June’s level. August new-lending figures are scheduled to be released on Sept. 11 and may show a 10 percent decline to 320 billion yuan, according to the median estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Energy Bubbles

Loans surged in the first six months of this year after the central bank scrapped quotas limiting lending in November to support the government’s 4 trillion yuan stimulus package and key industries including petrochemicals, steel and automakers.

Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman of National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning agency, said he sees “little bubbles” in the nation’s new energy sector and is looking into measure to curb excesses at an early stage to allow for healthy development for the industry.

Crude oil prices have risen 62 percent this year, gold has gained 13 percent and copper has more than doubled.

Re: Financial Charts

thepigman — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 05:33:52 -0000

At the risk of overgrowling, this market is so extended that a 15-20% correction is only going to
get us back to a 20 PE ratio (talking as reported earnings...not fictional operating earnings)
based on the most aggressive estimates of 2010 earnings out there. Historically, a 20 PE ratio
is outrageously expensive. And the "new normal" is a 1% real growth world. I guess I am just
stunned that a 20% correction won't even make the markets cheap by historical standards. But
Rome wasn't built in a day, I guess.

Re: Financial Charts

thepigman — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 05:18:33 -0000

Well, considering that without any mark to market discipline, they are reporting fictitious earnings
(which in turn fictitiously boosts S&P earnings) they deserve to be cooked on a fundamental basis.
If you examine the charts, they all have unfinished business back at the unfilled gaps e.g. WFC in the
15's.....BBT in the 17's etc etc. The great wonder of wonders is that we've had a 6 month rally
based on horse puckey. The financials are sitting on a bigger pile of crap debt (as Prechter mentions
in his Puplava interview, the Fed and Treasury have simply rearranged the chairs on the deck of the
Titanic) than they were in March.

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 8 September

thepigman — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:32:34 -0000

heh, heh....without mark to market, Banking and Financials are frauds with respect to earnings.
They make the S&P earnings a dishonest number.

Re: A Must Read on Debt

thepigman — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 08:25:09 -0000

Reading these posts, the social "mood" is already changing. Just
hasn't trickled down to the masses of non-thinking sheeple. When it finally
does....whoaaa.....it won't be pretty. Tick tock.

Re: E-minis

thepigman — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 10:17:54 -0000

Not untypical for them to report more than twice truthful earnings:)

Re: E-minis

thepigman — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 10:14:08 -0000

Heh, heh, Chinese accounting is mostly a complete fraud. They make Enron
look conservative:)

Re: GOLD Update

thepigman — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 17:55:49 -0000

Disqus won't accept links. Go to pragmatic capitalist and catch the
Fleckenstein interview on printed money going into the market.

Re: Plotting a Possible Endgame for P2

thepigman — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 13:33:26 -0000

Just 15% "in" as of today from 950 through 1023....average 998...no stops...80% cash....
this may take a while, or it may not.

Re: Plotting a Possible Endgame for P2

thepigman — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 13:07:05 -0000

Scaling in another 2.5% short for the long run. Yeah, I'm a big chicken:)

Re: Plotting a Possible Endgame for P2

thepigman — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 12:54:11 -0000

Personally, I don't think they make it this year. The bulls would
stepping in front each other to get out of 2009 with 20+% gains
considering none of them believe that a 2010 V recovery is
really likely. It would be hand to hand combat.