Disqus - Latest Comments for swinger

Re: May 16-20, 2011

swinger — Thu, 19 May 2011 06:32:31 -0000

ES 1318.75 was my downside target from 5/12 post at:

(actual low was 1316 --and was nailed by S&T at the IT buy signal)

ES 1325.25 was the stop sweep/reversal line I was hammering on in recent posts.

Thanks CG, I am glad that you like my posts. As I have said before--when you are doing things right as an analyst you end up pissing off bears in bull markets and bulls in bear markets--so it's usually a no-win situation on the public message boards.

Re: May 16-20, 2011

swinger — Wed, 18 May 2011 15:27:05 -0000

...stop sweep/reversal

;-)

Re: May 9-13, 2011

swinger — Tue, 10 May 2011 11:51:39 -0000

Thanks!

:-)

Re: May 2-6, 2011

swinger — Fri, 06 May 2011 11:08:23 -0000

See, that's what I try to encourage people to do--to think and analyze for themselves rather than to blindly follow me or anyone else. I could get hit by a bus today (and some would be pretty happy about that) but S&T will keep doing its' thing long after I am gone.

Look at the last ES buy on S&T on the short-term tab. It is at 1333.50 and look at the trending statement below the multitrend indicator...it says 'trending > 1329.25' and that is saying the same thing I am in my posts within just a couple of points.

Wanna know a secret...I don't know anything more than you or the next guy about about what is going to happen next. I just work the probabilities and concentrate on risk management and ignore the news and noise.

S&T is the real star. Learn to use that, and you won't even bother reading my rants.

Re: May 2-6, 2011

swinger — Fri, 06 May 2011 10:19:14 -0000

Censorship is alive and well!

I posted this over on Traders Talk and it was deleted...

The game this week has been the Bin Laden news--and the pros have successfully run the bear stops above last week's high at 1365 and the bull stops under last week's low under 1325. The end result so far is an outside bar on the weekly charts, and depending upon where today closes--the entire week may have just been a well-executed operation to take maximum profit from a news-driven event.

The pros often use 'news and noise' to drive people to the other side of the trade, and there has certainly been a fair bit of emotional outburst on this and other boards this week to illustrate the net effect of well-executed propaganda.

...my .02

<rant/>

I used to post regularly on public boards under the user name 'swinger', but like others have learned--if you are doing things right as an analyst, you end up pissing off the bears in a bull market and the bulls in a bear market...and the end result is a whole lot of grief from the board bullies.

For the last couple of years I have been posting on a private blog at http://stopsandtargets.com/... hosted behind the membership firewall of the kind folks at Stops and Targets. I don't always get it right in my analysis, but I try to stay on the right side of the trends, and use the excellent logic from Stops and Targets as a basic guideline for my own analysis.

If some of you are looking for automated T/A without the human bias, Stops and Targets is a great service to look into. Many retail traders spend a huge amount of time searching message boards for a magical formula or a human to tell them what to do. Unfortunately, many if not most message board warriors are absolutely clueless when it comes to managing trades.

Truthfully, most traders should be using the services of a certified financial advisor (I am not one--but the operator of this message board is), but for those brave souls who dare to trade against the best and brightest minds and machines, there is a tool available that helps to level the playing field a bit--though the house will always have the advantage, and it still requires real work and a sharp mind to be successful.

I have a couple of bits of advice though for any prospector new Stops and Targets users...

Read the user guide carefully from start to finish. Stops and Targets uses system trading strategy and employs very strict risk management parameters. Most retail traders don't think and certainly don't operate the way the pros do--and if you expect the system to say what you 'want it to say' and to agree with popular sentiment as expressed on message boards, and even to reflect what oftentimes seems 'logical'--you are probably going to be disappointed. It just deals with mathematical probabilities and could care less about 'news and noise'.

Successful trading almost never 'feels right'.

Don't make the usual newbie mistake of focusing on primary trend lines for trade entry and then setting tight stops rather than the recommended system stops and strategy. Those are volatility zones, often inside a trading range, where a battle is occurring between opposing forces at a potential change in trend. Focus instead on entering with the trend in the shaded ideal entry zones and take the time to understand the macro trending picture and to really read the analysis carefully.

Learn to take partial profits on trades to satisfy both fear and greed and to remain in trends as long as is possible. The real money in trading is made by being patient.

Also, if one is searching for a risk-free system where every trade is a winner...then good luck with that. All professional traders lose, and they lose often. The difference between success and failure at this game is the size of the wins minus the size of the losses. In the end, it all comes down to risk management and that is something almost never addressed on public trading boards--but is the center-point of all professional traders.

Stops and Targets wasn't designed to be used by retail traders looking to have their hand held, and for those who are willing to go 'all-in' against the trend based on a message board post by a nameless and faceless entity (who could just as easily be part of the news and noise), you probably need to keep on doing what you are doing for a while and learn that hard and expensive lesson. For those who have finally had enough, and are ready to try something that takes humans completely out of the loop and uses time-tested classic T/A techniques with integrated risk-management, then maybe you could gain something by trying S&T.

</rant>

Re: May 2-6, 2011

swinger — Wed, 04 May 2011 11:17:31 -0000

:-D

Re: May 2-6, 2011

swinger — Wed, 04 May 2011 10:49:34 -0000

...top spotters

;-)

Re: April 18-22, 2011

swinger — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 17:45:12 -0000

There is no 'one size fits all' answer for that question. It depends on several factors such as account size, risk profile, and strategy in play.

If a guy is only trading two contracts, then obviously selling partials means selling one and holding one with the intent of adding back the second when the gain to risk ratio is right. Past that and it starts getting highly personalized depending upon the individual.

S&T was created for use by professional money managers and financial advisers, and most of those guys know exactly what they are doing as far as risk management.

For self-guided retail investors, really, the best unsolicited advice I can offer is to consult a qualified (and competent) financial adviser (I am not) to work out how best to allocate your resources and to determine your own personalized risk appetite. It really is important for all investors to have a financial plan. Too many people approach the market like a casino and try to 'bet it all on red', for example. That generally doesn't have a happy ending for most--and the market is very good at separating those types of reckless, highly-emotional (and therefore very predictable) traders from their money.

Trading is a process…you win some and you lose some and the difference between those who are successful and those who are not…is the size of the losses versus the size of the wins.

In the end, it all comes down to risk management and that is what S&T is all about. Position sizing and asset allocation are personalized strategy decisions that are done according to a financial plan best constructed by someone intimate with your own personal situation and preferences.

Re: April 18-22, 2011

swinger — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 16:06:23 -0000

...and in other news, the guys who bought ES at the last S&T buy signal at 1295 and sold partials at the 1329 target today have 30+ points in the bank and are up +16 minimum on trailing hard stops for the remainder as a stress-free trade.

Re: March 14-18, 2011

swinger — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 10:28:52 -0000

Nicely done!

So you are sitting here now in a stress free trade at +9 on your hard stops, +30 on partials already taken, and pretty darned happy about things in general as you ride the volatility with the trend.

;-)

Re: March 14-18, 2011

swinger — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 10:06:00 -0000

Yesterday when I asked 'where are the bears?', I really wanted to see if anyone was short ahead of that major support test with a big support void underneath...

My guess is that many if not most who were constantly shorting against the uptrend missed this entire move and only now are awakening to a new reality.

S&T nailed that confirmed resistance top at 1342.50 (March contract) and had traders out on partials from the September rally just .50 from the recent top! The rest was partialed out and reversed as the trends flipped...and ES just hit a major support level this AM.

Seriously, I just don't see how anybody would want to trade retail against the pros without using Stops and Targets as a guide. Last night's move just by itself more than paid for a year's subscription for someone trading just one measly ES contract.

Re: March 14-18, 2011

swinger — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 13:51:24 -0000

There is no 'one size fits all' answer to that question. It really depends on your trading style and the time frame you choose to trade...

For example, many daytraders who attempt to trade 1-minute bars consider hourly bars to be ancient history (big mistake in my opinion) and institutional traders who focus on weekly and monthly bars could care less about the little intraday wiggles.

That is the real beauty of Stops and Targets—it organizes and prioritizes the timeframes for you. It determines the macro trend, suggests the tendencies, and then picks out the active timeframe, and best of all--you always know when a shorter timeframe is trumped by a higher one.

I originally started writing the Big Picture Blog to help show a method of positioning in the next shorter timeframe (VST or very short-term) for S&T. The original version of S&T didn't figure initial stop placement using best practice gain to risk ratios, and trading around primary trend lines in a volatility zone in a range bound market was something that some didn't get. That is a lot easier now using the ideal buy/sell zones and the suggested initial stop placement to maintain minimum 3:1 gain/risk ratio—but one still needs to be able to think through the possibilities and understand the big picture.

I try to demonstrate different techniques to establish VST trends so that one can fine tune entries around ST and longer positions. It's all in there to be read for previous accuracy during a very wide range of market conditions, and I highly encourage people to read back through my posts especially at key turns.

You may notice that I place a lot of emphasis on trend-lines and channels depending upon market conditions. I first determine what the market conditions are and key support/resistance by using Stops and Targets and only then do I start trying to decipher the VST. I absolutely reply upon S&T to set the overall strategy and I never ever trade against that algorithm.

There is a big difference between trading a trending market and a rangebound market. Most traders are either one style or the other and incapable of quickly adjusting when it changes—and that's how the market extracts it's pound of flesh from those who don't know the difference.

I go out of my way not to spoon feed trades, because I really want people to learn how to craft their own techniques rather than just blindly following. The main message I preach is to always know the trends and to trade within them and to sell resistance and buy support taking into account the odds--and focusing heavily on risk management. It is a melding of two distinctly different strategy approaches—trend-following and range trading. Risk management is something that most are terrible at, and the reason why most self-guided traders fail. That is the thing I used to rail about most (and get attacked for) on public message boards.

To directly answer your question from above...the bull stops are located under there. If that line is breached, then you have to watch and see if it reverses and rallies--or continues. There are very clever people on the other side of any trade doing their best to take your money. The best prepared and most organized trader usually wins the battle. Your best bet is to be short before that stop sweep volatility zone is hit, sitting with a profit cushion protected by a well-placed trailing stop. If you covered that position on a 'gut instinct' then you forfeited the cushion needed to ride the volatility around a potential breakout. Best bet, in my way of thinking, is to feed both emotions (greed and fear) by taking partial profits when a trending target is hit and then sitting tight with the rest looking for the break—but sitting always with well-considered protection to stop and reverse if momentum dies.

Most bears screw up in an early bear market by covering too early and then being too afraid to chase a breakout. Same thing happens to bulls at the start of a bull market. You have to be in to win but there is always risk and always a place where one has to unemotionally disengage and reverse when wrong on the guess.

The intermediate target from the confirmed resistance sell at 1342.50 (March contract) has already been achieved at 1278.50. Now we are waiting to see if the bears can take it to the next level of a Bear 2—or if the previous macro trend will reassert after a textbook pullback. This is the spot where pros are battling to place their bets and the reason I pointed it out earlier. Whether you trade 1-minute bars, 60-minute bars, daily or weekly bars...this is an important spot where all those timeframes come into alignment. I, of course, have no idea which way this will break from here—but I laid out the basic plan for managing the trade at the line in my earlier blog post.

Wow, a quick reply turned into a treatise...hope that helps to clarify things.

Re: March 14-18, 2011

swinger — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 12:02:56 -0000

I just posted an intraday update on the Big Picture blog.

Watch out for that dashed red line.

;-)

Re: March 14-18, 2011

swinger — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 11:37:27 -0000

That's the trapdoor ST bears are trying to kick open.

;-)

Re: March 14-18, 2011

swinger — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 11:35:51 -0000

Glad to hear that you like S&T.

:-)

It sure nailed this ST 50+ point ES pullback from 1238 (1242.50 old contract).

Re: March 14-18, 2011

swinger — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 11:17:35 -0000

Where are all the bears?

4:1 decliners over advancers and da' bears are banging on the trapdoor right here...

Re: February 21 - 25, 2011

swinger — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 10:49:54 -0000

That other guy got his minions all beared up around the last S&T short-term buy level at 1260 area--and then those poor clueless souls got their faces ripped off (again) all the way up to the Stops and Targets’ short term profit target that was hit on Friday.

Permabears hate me when they are getting squeezed on the wrong side of the trend, but I am just trying to point out that there are very good alternatives to following questionable characters on message boards.

Stops and Targets is a killer tool if you want to learn how to trade like a pro.

Re: February 14 - 18, 2011

swinger — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 12:27:21 -0000

As a follow-up to a recent post at:

http://obamagirl7.blogspot....

I strongly suspect that some/perhaps even many of the more recognizable names you read on the Internet are fictional creations concocted by clever professionals who are having a very large laugh at the predictable (and bankable) gullibility of their victims.

The street has always created false prophets to lead suckers astray in order to help create necessary counter-parties for their own trades. They used to use the newspapers and magazines, then they transitioned and expanded to broadcast radio and TV with bogus ‘stock analysts’, and now they have migrated to using online entities in the Internet Age.

For those who recognize an age-old pattern, it can be the single most enlightening experience of your trading career…once you understand that the ‘news and noise’ is and always has been used to deceive.

…I’ll pause a moment to let that thought sink in.

Did you know that there are discreet businesses that employ large numbers of ‘professional posters’ to pepper the Internet with a carefully concocted script for commercial and political clients seeking to spread a particular message? Next time you read an ‘opinion leader’ and perhaps one of many fake supporting screen name entities that seem to agree and support that particular ‘message’, maybe just consider the possibility that all is not as it seems out there in the ether.

The trend is your friend...buy support, and sell resistance in the direction of that prevailing trend. Nothing else you read or hear matters.

Break free from the herd.

…my .02

Re: February 7 - 11, 2011

swinger — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 15:46:12 -0000

The five stages of a squeeze…

http://www.youtube.com/watc...

There will always be someone out there telling people exactly what they want to hear at the precise instant that they want to hear it.

There are some individuals who are so keenly adept at leading others astray that I sometimes suspect that they may be, in reality, fictional entities created by a someone very clever--solely to drive the herd into a trap just before it is sprung.

Once one chooses to identify with the nefariously timed ‘message’—he becomes a part of the message, and once emotionally and financially invested becomes unable to admit the error before it is much too late. The ego takes over and then anger sets in--and then woe to anyone who is perceived as criticizing the leader…because the leader, and the message, and the follower are now as one. The fate of the leader (if he is indeed ‘real’) is now the fate of the follower--and the leader and his message must therefore be defended at all costs until the bitter end, lest all hope of redemption be lost.

Same as it ever was.

This squeeze/rally will likely end when all ‘hope’ is lost. So whatcha think—where do you guys think we are in the 5 stages shown in the video link?

Meanwhile, at www.stopsandtargets.com the current ES trend signals are now:

ST +45 points
IT +244 points
LT +251 points

…with stress-free protective stops underneath, and profit stops above.

;-)

Re: January 17-21, 2011

swinger — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 12:10:27 -0000

Thad and Steve...

The real beauty of Stops and Targets is the simplicity. Just buy in the direction of an up trend when the price is inside the green zone, or sell in the direction of a down trend when the price is in the red zone. Always honor the initial 3:1 risk management stops and take partial profits at the targets. That's the way to use it best.

For example, if you really want to take a shot in the IT timeframe on ES, S&T is showing it in the IT buy zone right here. The risk is 38 points looking for a potential reward of 114 (see how the 3:1 ratio works).

The short-term timeframe is the one currently in play, though, not the IT (see the little green arrow on the short-term tab). You missed the opportunity to enter at the short-term green window yesterday risking less points (but targeting a lower number), and the risk/reward ratio there of 1.5:1 is not good at present. Yeah sure, it may turn and you may lose the initial ante, but that is the way things always are in the markets. No risk no gain, and a good trade entry almost never feels 'right'. Ya place yer bet and ya takes yer chances--but you always try to skew the odds in your favor, and that is what Stops and Targets is all about.

I think people get into trouble with the market when they start looking for what they 'want to see' rather than what just 'is'. If people are stubbornly bearish in a bull market, for example, they aren't going to be in a mood to buy no matter what a signal says, and the opposite is equally true in bear markets. The key is to lose the bias and trust a well-engineered system both up and down, and that just comes from experience and building trust over time watching a system work.

IMO, people often put way too much emphasis on S&T's countertrend spotter signals when the real gold in that system is in the actual buy and sell signals inside the green and red buy/sell zones. The instructions are all there on the timeframe tab for exactly what to do to trade like a pro, all a guy/gal has to do is simply follow them and not try to over-think things too much. Spotters can definitely tip off a coming change, but the actual green zone/red zone buy/sell setups should be the actual trade triggers for disciplined traders.

Message boards can be dangerous because people can get affirmation of their 'feelings' and then trade accordingly. Some of you saw the unsolicited grief I got when I used to post only on public boards. I often wasn't saying what the collective groupthink wanted to hear, and so wasn't a real popular guy in certain circles (depending on what direction the market was heading at the time) and that's the way it always goes.

For you who are already S&T members, I would recommend that you go read the 'ES 2010 Year In Review' post in the blog at the following link and carefully study what happened at each of the ten ideal swing trade entries last year that are shown on that chart. Don't just read my blog posts--but go read the archives on different message boards near those turns as well as your own trading notes and/or trade spreadsheets. It can be a very interesting/instructive/enlightening exercise.

http://stopsandtargets.com/...

There were five bullish and five bearish swing legs last year (see why it is important to not take a perma-bias), and though the bulls cumulatively made more--there were ample bearish opportunities.

If you are so inclined, use the 'archive' links on the right side of the blog page to go back and see what was being written before and after key turns. It's all there, good and bad, right and wrong--exactly as it was written at the time in the heat of battle.

I am going to retreat back into the peace and sanctity of my private blog now, but just felt like tossing out a short rant, FWIW.

...have a great weekend everyone.

Re: October 4-8, 2010

swinger — Thu, 07 Oct 2010 13:38:02 -0000

Thanks.

:-)

Re: Friday, Jan 22, 2010

swinger — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 13:59:26 -0000

Last one was posted at 9:30 this am.

I am not going to post links on Disqus any more. You might want to subscribe to the atom feed on the blog page to get notified automatically for future posts.

Re: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010

swinger — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 13:51:35 -0000

Could be a spam folder issue.

Try using this utility to see if you can get an automated email reply from S&T:

http://www.stopsandtargets....

...instructions are there on what to do if you are unable to receive a reply

you can get a message to me by sending to:

webmaster at stopsandtargets dot com and then put attention 'swinger' in the memo line and they will forward it to me.

Re: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010

swinger — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 15:50:42 -0000

It's on a snapback from the partials target I posted earlier on S&T...that was low tick to the penny, by the way ;-)

We'll have to wait and see how this goes here.

Re: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010

swinger — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 15:46:27 -0000

I post links here so that those who have followed me for a long time through the Disqus system and who also happen to be members of S&T will know when something new is posted.

I have plenty of friends here who read that board and that's where I do my thing now.

If you wonder why I don't post any of that stuff here any more--just read back through some of the threads and ask yourself how much of that you would put up with if the shoe were on the other foot.

You guys following the message board gurus are on your own. There are plenty of them out there ready and willing to tell you exactly what you want to hear.