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Re: Sold ES @ 908

vinaydh — Wed, 27 May 2009 21:35:39 -0000

Reasons why? Is that a trick question or what :) No idea what you are trying to ask?

Re: Sold ES @ 908

vinaydh — Wed, 27 May 2009 21:40:31 -0000

Thanks. It's already in the rear view.

Re: No need to overthink

vinaydh — Wed, 27 May 2009 23:51:26 -0000

"Don't you think it might not visit 200 ma mainly because everyone is expecting the market to get there ? The market rarely rewards the consensus."

So what makes you think that others too are also not thinking like you and positioned against the consensus view point. So now we have a majority of folks who think that they are going against the consensus but the irony is that they themselves are the consensus now. That's why I always say not to overthink. The ability to think simply is a rare trait these days. It's virtually guaranteed that any simple thought will be different from the consensus.

In fact I am more than convinced now that we will visit 200ma. We will see.

Re: Sold ES @ 908

vinaydh — Thu, 28 May 2009 22:20:47 -0000

I have written a software that triggers long entries and short entries. It triggered a short entry at 909.50 yesterday. So I exited my long. I could have gone short too at that point but I preferred to go on the sidelines. I do not follow the system blindly because there are a few other things too that I look at while making a decision. I haven't been able to integrate everything in the system because of the limitations of the trading platform or the software language. Or I should say that there is no way to replace human interpretation with a piece of code.

Re: A short idea

vinaydh — Thu, 28 May 2009 23:18:50 -0000

If anyone is curious about the mechanics behind a particular trade, I will share it with him/her. But then there are a few things that one can learn only by observing the tape over a period of time. I can only help in that learning process based on my experience and past mistakes.

Re: A short idea

vinaydh — Fri, 29 May 2009 08:03:59 -0000

Steering clear is definitely a good choice.

Re: To chase or to not chase

vinaydh — Fri, 29 May 2009 14:23:20 -0000

I think half the battle is won if one is patient in trading.

Re: Sold ES @ 908

vinaydh — Fri, 29 May 2009 14:31:02 -0000

It's just a crude little piece of code that helps me avoid looking at the data all the time. It's in no way a complete tool. There are many kinks that I still need to resolve. In short nothing worthy of deserving a price tag yet.

Re: Bulls ruined the weekend for bears

vinaydh — Sat, 30 May 2009 08:52:09 -0000

Stay tuned for that.

Re: Short ES @ 837

vinaydh — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 13:01:39 -0000

The pullback to 200ma will happen but to keep the shorts on in anticipation of that will be foolish. So better to get stopped out then hope for the position to work.

Re: Bought ES @ 943.50

vinaydh — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 10:38:19 -0000

What's the guarantee that a pullback will happen? Why does everyone want to get in at the lowest prices. Bargain hunting works only in stores. In stock market either pay up or risk missing the boat altogether.

I have the spy puts to back it up. Not thinking of putting any stop right now. Eventually we are going higher. Scalping a few points here and there feels good but eventually it's a loosers game and is frustrating and stressful.

Re: Sold rest of SPY Jun 92 puts @ 1.75

vinaydh — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 23:36:07 -0000

You are right India is where the easy money is right now.

Re: Confusion is not an option in this market

vinaydh — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 23:49:22 -0000

I think 970 is achievable at the very least. In fact 1000 should be the next logical stop. The market has only until next week to make its run then I expect weakness to set in during expiration week. There are a lot of naysayers that need to throw in the towel.

Re: Confusion is not an option in this market

vinaydh — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 23:56:59 -0000

Interesting charts. As long as market agrees we both are good to go.

Re: Confusion is not an option in this market

vinaydh — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 00:07:23 -0000

This market is out to frustrate everyone. It will keep everyone second guessing. That's why options is the best route here. .Either it works beautifully or one knows the max downside. One has to make a move based on one's belief.

I think just based on technicals this market should have rolled over much earlier. There are so many moving parts that it's hard to box the market within a few parameters.

Re: Confusion is not an option in this market

vinaydh — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 09:14:40 -0000

Thanks for the kind words!

Re: Confusion is not an option in this market

vinaydh — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 12:40:39 -0000

Yeah I can do that but you have to keep in mind that I am not into scalping here and there so constant monitoring is not required as such. I have realized constantly monitoring the market is stressful and also detrimental because one panicks or gets excited and does the wrong thing. This is market it will move every second. Anyone who tries to catch every move is going to get run over by the market eventually. The fascination to catch the bottoms and tops is the greatest undoing of any trader. Believe me I have been through it all. Right approach is to have a plan of action and a exit strategy rather than being a jumping jack. If you have been reading this blog for sometime then you would realize that keeping it simple is my mantra.

I am not sure if I answered your question or just went off on a different tangent :). Let me know if that's the case.

Re: Confusion is not an option in this market

vinaydh — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 12:53:15 -0000

Thanks, let's take it one day at a time or 20 s&p points a day :). If I have to hazard a guess then I think this market will rollover eventually. The price patterns are predicting that right now but that may change later as you said. This market is really doing a great job of keeping everyone guessing.

Re: Sold rest of NOV Jun 37 calls @ 3.5

vinaydh — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 15:45:06 -0000

How are these options on futures better than regular options? Any advantage? The bid ask has too much spread.

Re: Sold rest of NOV Jun 37 calls @ 3.5

vinaydh — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 15:53:03 -0000

I just realized its NDX options and not /NQ

Re: Confusion is not an option in this market

vinaydh — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 23:12:58 -0000

I look at the price patterns, volume thrusts and intermarket analysis but above all it's the intuition. If one observes the market keenly over a period of time one can understand how the market reacts to different scenarios. I always try to think what the smart money would do at any given point of time. The key is to have a clear thinking other wise everytime the market zigs one would zag. These markets are complex but it requires simple thinking to survive in the markets. One makes money by buying low and selling high when the trend is up and by selling high and buying low when the trend is down. It's that simple. The trend is one's best friend. Fighting the trend is one's worst enemy.

Re: Sold the rest of RIMM Jun 85 calls @ 4.35

vinaydh — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 12:44:12 -0000

I am on CST. The market opens at 8.30 for us.

Re: Sold the rest of RIMM Jun 85 calls @ 4.35

vinaydh — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 14:27:27 -0000

Nothing special. Some times I just get lucky :)

Re: Bought AMZN Jun 90 calls @ 1.85

vinaydh — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 07:21:54 -0000

Thanks.

Re: Bought AMZN Jun 90 calls @ 1.85

vinaydh — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 20:57:17 -0000

Bought is entry price and sold is exit price. I am not sure where the confusion is?