Disqus - Latest Comments for springheel_jack

Re: Republicans only have themselves to blame for Trump’s unhinged reign: conservative scholar

springheel_jack — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 20:41:31 -0000

I'd like to just say a few words in defence of Julius Caesar. He did deliver some of the last blows to kill the Roman Republic, after a long decline over the prior century, but he was by any measure an extraordinarily gifted man, and a great general and administrator.

Trump is in no way worthy to be compared to Julius Caesar in any respect other than the personal ambition to become a tyrant.

Re: Channels and Patterns: The Road to 3340 SPX

springheel_jack — Sat, 05 Nov 2022 23:41:16 -0000

It is fully automated, though the account is under your control and you can elect to screen the trading alerts and choose which ones to take. As we have no access to the account we do suggest that you check the account every day to check that the automated trades have taken place as planned.

We mention the alerts on the subscriber only twitter feed and any question about those can be asked there.

If you are interested in the teaching side beyond the normal videos we do and our extensive teaching library, I'd invite you to my discord. I enjoy teaching and am always happy to teach. We are thinking we may turn that into a subscriber trading room at some point but at the moment that's just a free trading room I and my main trading collaborator have set up and hang out in during most days.

Re: Channels and Patterns: Looking For A Fail

springheel_jack — Tue, 25 Oct 2022 10:54:43 -0000

Glad you're enjoying the blog. I do love writing these. :-)

On SPX that was a first straight up fail on the Three Day Rule after almost seventeen years. No data on what is likely afterwards as it hasn't happened before. At the current rate of failures I may have some useful data on that by 2300AD.

What it does do is open up the next target area, which is the 3900 area and I think we are likely going there now.

If that breaks and converts to support then we could potentially see that run up into Xmas which could set up a potentially awesome short entry into the new year.

Re: Channels and Patterns: No Such Thing As A Sure Thing

springheel_jack — Wed, 19 Oct 2022 20:32:01 -0000

I would love to see this scenario play out. I really would.

Re: Channels and Patterns: No Such Thing As A Sure Thing

springheel_jack — Wed, 19 Oct 2022 12:35:32 -0000

If so, a low retest would still be good to see here. That would set up a possible double bottom looking for the 4000 area.

Re: Channels and Patterns: No Such Thing As A Sure Thing

springheel_jack — Tue, 18 Oct 2022 16:04:08 -0000

Well if we are going to see that, then the place to do that from is the 200 week MA and the low is forming right here.

Re: Channels and Patterns: Still Testing The SPX 200 Week MA

springheel_jack — Mon, 17 Oct 2022 07:08:06 -0000

My pleasure my friend. :-)

A handle is market slang for one point, so if SPX drops from 3600 to 3500, as it will likely be doing soon, that is a drop of 100 handles.

Re: Channels and Patterns: Holding The SPX 200 Week MA ...... So Far

springheel_jack — Thu, 06 Oct 2022 15:56:50 -0000

Covered in the premarket post today.

Pretty interesting setup here actually. :-)

Re: Channels and Patterns: Still Testing 3900

springheel_jack — Wed, 07 Sep 2022 21:32:45 -0000

Not quite. I've been running this stat for years, maybe since 2012? The examples go back to the start of 2007 and over the fifteen years and change since, on the clear break back below the 5dma on either of the next two days, I have only two instances where the prior low was not retested, and both of those were marginal higher lows when triangles were forming that then broke up and made a significant low.

That's over 150 Three Day Rule fixes I think, though I haven't been keeping a count, and might be as high as 200 examples. I have never come across any other market stat with a track record even close to this one. When I have time I may look back further than 2007, which I think I picked as I was first looking at this in 2012, so that was five years of data then.

That said, the track record seems too good, I do wonder if we are very overdue for a fail, but there hasn't been one yet.

My pleasure on the education resource, I love to teach. I'm planning a book that I think might have a decent shot at becoming one of the important textbooks for classical charting, but we'll see. :-)

Re: Channels and Patterns: Backtesting 4200

springheel_jack — Wed, 07 Sep 2022 05:47:52 -0000

No worries.

The SPX only has to close back below the 5dma on either of day two or three, not both. That break needs to be a clear visual break of 3 to 5 handles below.

The target is a retest of the prior low but no more, though obviously it often will go down more. . :-)

Re: Channels and Patterns: The Evolving Markets

springheel_jack — Tue, 12 Jul 2022 05:15:36 -0000

Well ideally the right shoulder looks like the left shoulder, but in practical terms it would often be shorter and shallower. I'd be thinking at least three months.

As it happens there is a decent example of what I'm thinking of that broke up on ZB overnight so you can see what I mean here: https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

Re: Channels and Patterns: After The Holiday

springheel_jack — Wed, 06 Jul 2022 16:10:44 -0000

I'm not a perfectionist, I just like the full low retests because it makes it less likely that the move up is a bear flag forming.

The historical stats wind is at the backs of the bulls until the end of Thursday 14th July. We'll see what they can do in that time.

Re: Channels and Patterns: Back On The Three Day Rule Again

springheel_jack — Tue, 28 Jun 2022 20:06:40 -0000

My pleasure. I love to teach.

The 50% is a bit arbitrary and is only a rough target area, but it delivers a lot. That is the choice here of course, whether this is just a retracement or we see the full retest. I'm keeping an open mind, but the action this afternoon is lining up for a gap down and low retest. We'll see how that looks at the RTH open tomorrow. :-)

Re: Channels and Patterns: Back On The Three Day Rule Again

springheel_jack — Tue, 28 Jun 2022 18:56:52 -0000

I drew this channel in a trading room earlier this afternoon with the observation that it might well be a bear flag channel.

If that was the case, I noted the open gap below and said that the strongest indication we could see that the low might well be retested would be a break of the channel, a close near gap support, and then a gap down at the open tomorrow that then held the island top on the backtest.

The rest of the afternoon played out as I suggested, waiting to see what happens tomorrow.

if that doesn't happen this may still be setting up a low retest and the key would be the conversion of that gap area to resistance IMO.

https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

Re: Channels and Patterns: Back On The Three Day Rule Again

springheel_jack — Thu, 23 Jun 2022 03:51:46 -0000

It was a retest, and set up a first small double bottom that has since reached target on this rally, but I am looking for a second retest. Might not get it but the setup currently favors one.

Re: Channels and Patterns: Awaiting SPX Low Retest

springheel_jack — Fri, 11 Mar 2022 07:25:59 -0000

No, until the previous fixed target either delivers or fails, there are no more Three Day Rule periods.

We still have a clear target at the low retest and, historically, the statistic has delivered every time except two instances where a triangle has been forming and a marginal higher low was made. .

It is possible though that a triangle is forming here. I've been looking at that in my premarket videos this week. If so it would generally be a bearish leaning triangle forming here, setting up the low retest that would deliver the current Three Day Rule target.

Re: Channels and Patterns: Nasdaq Setting Direction Here

springheel_jack — Tue, 28 Sep 2021 13:52:07 -0000

Hi Rich,

Thank you. I always proofread these but I am a better chartist than proofreader :-)

Corrected now. Much appreciated.

Re: Channels and Patterns: A Moment Of Truth

springheel_jack — Tue, 31 Aug 2021 12:04:32 -0000

It is a really nice setup, but sometimes markets just head right through those. We'll have to see.

Re: Channels and Patterns: Testing SPX Rising Wedge Resistance Again

springheel_jack — Wed, 25 Aug 2021 09:38:42 -0000

You are absolutely right.

Thank you very much for pointing that out and it is now corrected. :-)

Re: Channels and Patterns: The Next Inflection Point

springheel_jack — Wed, 30 Jun 2021 18:31:06 -0000

An inflection, point, as mentioned in the title, is a level where the market decides to go either up or down.

Re: Channels and Patterns: So Here We Are

springheel_jack — Thu, 12 Nov 2020 17:31:29 -0000

It will all turn out ok I'm sure, but it sure isn't much fun.

Some marriages though should end in divorce but don't. My mother was pretty unpleasant to my father for a long time, but he was convinced that underneath she still loved him. After he died I avoided an autopsy to preclude any really close inspection of the bruises on his body, though that was probably due to a fall, then had to watch my mother try and fail badly to conceal her joy at his death while seeing her changed all of the funeral arrangements that he had planned, thus making it hard for many of his more distant friends to attend and altogether making it a much sadder and less fitting affair.

My mother had narcissistic personality disorder (NPD) I now realise, and I had also married a woman who I believe has the same disorder, though of a much more malignant kind. My mother was at the least a very caring mother. I'm not making the same mistake my father made. This kind of abusive relationship tends to run down in families and looking back I think I am the fourth successive generation of this. The last however, my children are well aware of the danger now.

Re: Channels and Patterns: The Masks We Wear

springheel_jack — Fri, 02 Oct 2020 11:12:54 -0000

I'm just presenting the math Scotty. Personally I'm in a low risk age group and have no-comorbid health issues. My family are all the same apart from one older relative who has already had COVID-19 and was fine.

The other thing is that a very common misunderstanding about the wearing of masks in this pandemic is that people think that the aim is to protect themselves, and while the masks are somewhat useful for that, the main benefit is to protect others from exhalations from those unknowingly or indeed knowingly infected with COVID-19, so the main benefit is to others.

My main concerns here are economic. Too much economic disruption could cause an extended economic slowdown and that in my view is a potentially far more damaging outcome than any known health risks posed by COVID-19.

Re: Channels and Patterns: Degrees Of Separation

springheel_jack — Mon, 24 Aug 2020 12:57:32 -0000

Thanks Jimmy. It will all work out for the best I'm sure. Just need to keep putting one foot in front of the other while I get through this.

Re: Channels and Patterns: An Overflow Of Good Converts To Bad

springheel_jack — Sat, 02 May 2020 21:25:09 -0000

Historically, serious economic shocks generally see strong recoveries afterwards.

Re: Channels and Patterns: An Overflow Of Good Converts To Bad

springheel_jack — Wed, 29 Apr 2020 15:15:16 -0000

Too early to say. Seeing what happens next after the excitement of the Fed doing nothing new subsides.