Disqus - Friends of snpmonster

Re: Boxing Day Blues

Atlas — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 09:42:06 -0000

The ECB made an infusion that large because they had to bail out a Spanish bank before it needed to beg for funds publicly. The problem the ECB faces is that European countries still have feelings of nationalism. If the ECB has to prop up a Spanish bank publicly do you think that the Italians will be happy that their money is being used to bail out another country, no they will not. I think that the ECB may fall apart, the next couple of years will be a great test. Economies that are doing well (Germany) feel like they are propping up the whole system and would be better off on their own. It is naive to think that all is hunky dory over there.

Re: Make a Bull Your Designated Driver Tonight

Atlas — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 19:10:44 -0000

Happy new year all, 2008 or Ursa Major.

Re: Angels in the Architecture

Atlas — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 20:37:22 -0000

Tim, are you still holding on to AZO puts? That was a great call of course I sold mine to early. Also have gotten back into FXP. I have been averageing in for a while and plan on holding it for a while. That is one I don't want to get in and out of. I feel that any real move in our market will be exagerated in the casino like Market over there.

Re: HUZZAH!

Atlas — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 08:41:24 -0000

WOOO HOOOO for once I don't get screwed by gov numbers! Should be an interesting day.

Re: Our Market Has Finally Arrived

Atlas — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 19:06:33 -0000

Minyanville linked to you yesterday, that may account for some of the traffic. Oh what a day, sadly I cashed out of all of my puts.

Re: Broken or Bouncing?

Atlas — Sun, 06 Jan 2008 20:28:40 -0000

Ha! Billary has a tire under her shirt. I am shocked at the babies crying on this board. Let me take some of the attention away from Tim's photo.

A Polish kid comes home and proudly tells his mom that he was the only kid in class that could answer a question.

His mom is so happy and asks him "What was the question"

The kids say "Who farted"

Now there is some childish humor (stolen from Gilbert Godfriend)!

Re: Broken or Bouncing?

Atlas — Sun, 06 Jan 2008 21:52:05 -0000

I wish I could claim that as my own.

The New Hampshire Democratic presidential debate was held last tonight. ... Big event. It featured Senator Hillary Clinton facing off against four men. Or, as Bill Clinton calls it, the worst porn movie plot ever.

Lighten up!

Re: Chipotle. Meh.

Atlas — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 20:40:43 -0000

Tim

I would like to switch brokers to TOS, should I be on the look out for any special deal & is there a way I can attribute my change to you so can recieve a commision. I figure I owe you that much since you do such a great job with the site.

P.S. My buddy had a chance at Chipoltle pre IPO at under $20 but he didn't buy it in time because his son was born. Big missed opportunity. For the record I like the Barbacoa.

Re: The New Normal

Atlas — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:09:30 -0000

Just opened up a TOS account after using Etrade's Powertrade forever, all I can say is wow. I am not sure what your involvment is with TOS and Prophet Tim but I really like the interface, options and functionality.

Re: The New Normal

Atlas — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 22:40:17 -0000

Agreed Bullor, I can't figure out which direction this market is going short term. I study fundementals much more than charts so I am firmly in the bearish camp. There are a lot of things that have yet to come out from our friends at the big banks. I believe this will be one hell of a down year, banks that have been so strung out on bad loans that they can't repackage them anylonger because those loans can't be paid back by consumers that have lived beyond their means for years based on the theoretical returns they would recieve from their homes. They felt safe when they thought their home would make them 10-20% a year.

That being said the event that triggers the downturn will probably come as a suprise. I personally have been averaging into a large (for me) FXP position. I don't belive in the decoupling argument (even though lately that argument certainly looks to have merits) and hope to see exagerated returns from a large downturn. The short term picture is murky because something could come from left field and send the market into a tailspin or the market could creep up killing any put postions. My advice is average into a long term short postion and if you pick directions stay true to your stops. I think there is a lot of money to be made this year, i want to make sure I have a lot when the chance comes.

Re: The New Normal

Atlas — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 08:33:55 -0000

Based on Fundementals the market should go down at least in the morning. Yen up, trade deficit the same and more bank write downs.

Re: The New Normal

Atlas — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 08:47:22 -0000

I agree Winace, I plan on dumping my Q puts sometime this morning. Of coursae things can change but I don't see a reason for big down day.

Re: Boom Shankar

Atlas — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 12:12:35 -0000

Financials are doing well which is why I am holding my calls. Could get stopped out but I think a pop is in order and slide into the close.

Re: Chat!

Atlas — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 17:25:45 -0000

Hello, hello hello, is anybody out there!

Sadly I will not be able to participate in the chat functionality.

Re: Chat!

Atlas — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 17:51:25 -0000

Sigh, I will not because I cannot get access to Gabby from work.

Re: Packing It In Awhile

Atlas — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 14:50:50 -0000

Does anyone find it odd that the Bond yields are not moving. On an up day like to today you would expect a 10 basis point move, but they are just sitting there, the 10 yr is still at 3.78%. This is very odd, at least to me.

Also it is just rumor but the Citi writedown could be huge, if it is a big as some say it could have a large effect on the market.

Re: Slope's Theme Song

Atlas — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 20:59:40 -0000

If this is a counter trend rally I hope is quick up and then plummet. Listening to Kernan and Liesman is going to become unbearable again.

Re: Slope's Theme Song

Atlas — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 09:56:58 -0000

I am lost and afraid if that makes anyone feel better. I was hoping for a upward push before I commited short again, currently I just have about 100 shares of FXP working for me. I was so close to buying puts last night due to the way bonds acted yesterday but I wimped out now I am like a sail boat without wind, going nowhere fast.

Re: Slope's Theme Song

Atlas — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 10:06:08 -0000

Ha, nice. I would think the long side too but bond yields went down again and the Yen stregthened to crazy levels. The only reason I see to go long is because the market has stretched to the downside so much lately that it needs to bounce back, I do not see any fundemental reasons to pop. Do you see any technical reasons?

Re: Slope's Theme Song

Atlas — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 10:53:53 -0000

For whatever reason I cannot get my call order filled on Etrade.

Re: Slope's Theme Song

Atlas — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 11:01:39 -0000

Ask was 1.59 and I bid 1.6, who knows their system sucks which is why I am leaving them. I got it filled finally but at 1.63. 10% stop put in and let it ride. I don't see the market crashing during expiry week but who knows at this point.

Re: Tomorrow Will Rule

Atlas — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 20:14:53 -0000

Love that FXP, how will China react to a US consumer led recession. My guess is decoupling is a fairytale. The Chinese market is the ultimate Ponzi scheme, we all know those end.

Re: Tomorrow Will Rule

Atlas — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 20:17:44 -0000

From the author of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"

China Life Insurance Co. illustrates the point, he added. The nation's largest life insurer trades for 46.6 times estimated earnings in Shanghai, 25.9 times in Hong Kong and 29.2 in New York, according to Bloomberg data.

Re: The Adventures of Wussy Boy!

Atlas — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 11:10:53 -0000

May be a V bottom. Happened in March and Aug and I was on the wrong side both times. We will see. I have been stopped out of two long postions this morning and am now on my third. I seem to be the ultimate contrarian, we hit a bear market and I am loosing on the long side.

Re: Vive la Petite Résistance!

Atlas — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 16:31:22 -0000

I know that I was wrong all day long today due to the stops I am normally grateful for lost me a lot of money. I would like to change my name to "Whipsawed".