Disqus - Latest Comments for simpletrade

Re: Video: SINA Buyout Talk: China Watch

simpletrade — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 17:42:10 -0000

I signed on to weibo service, what surprised me, if you're using Chinese, it's 140 characters, if you're English, each word is counting as one, therefore, so it's far more powerful than twitter. And they have this group weibo, called Wei Qun, which presents another feature that twitter doesn't have. I like the way they're building, if customers in China like it, it could be the new mobile portal in the future.

Re: 04/05/2010 Market Recap: Simply Too Much Call Buying

simpletrade — Tue, 06 Apr 2010 00:21:34 -0000

Thanks Cobra. Keep it up!

Re: Is it Friday Yet?

simpletrade — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 12:44:27 -0000

Can anyone comment on BOW? Seems lot of huge buying today, or this is due to option expiration day? I noticed they always spike on OE day. Seems to me a huge number, and yet the market is down.
Anyway, I exited IWM puts added when it's over 68. Still keep the IWM puts added when IWM was 65, 66 and 67.

Re: Tired Tape?

simpletrade — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 12:50:50 -0000

Added some IWM puts here. IWM is little tired comparing to QQQQ and SPY. I think we'll have a strong pull back soon. If market shot up after Fed, I'll add more. But just a gut feel.

Re: WOW!.. Look at that Big Bull AssCarGo!

simpletrade — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 16:09:36 -0000

Thank you!

Re: WOW!.. Look at that Big Bull AssCarGo!

simpletrade — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 16:09:16 -0000

Thank you!

Re: WOW!.. Look at that Big Bull AssCarGo!

simpletrade — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 00:54:40 -0000

I am bearish and started to add shorts(TZA, SRS) when IWM was 64(it went from 58 to 64 in a few days, 10 days?), and then thought it must close to a pullback, so I started to add IWM puts when it's 65, 66, 67. Now I am really worried. Maybe this is the "bull" market forever. People are talking about another rally Monday to kill all the bears.
Today I saw this in market watch, "Now is time to buy stock", http://www.marketwatch.com/story/now-is-a-good-...

So I plan to continue to add to my puts(I have to be aggressive now, since I run out of funds soon) when IWM hits, 68, then 69, then 70. Until I get a pullback. I have to play the odds now. Even for bull's sake, it's better to have a pullback. I think whoever can double on each 1% rise from now on, will win big in the end. The problem is, do you have money left?

SOS and BOW showed for several days there are selling on markets, and buying in defensive issues like SHY and VXX, I really think it's close to a pullback.

Good luck everyone.

Re: …the easy over the truth

simpletrade — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 15:27:05 -0000

I had this for over 2 years, not like I am stealing it... It's Chinese/Korean Zen thing, everyone can have it, right Inna?

Re: …the easy over the truth

simpletrade — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 15:21:30 -0000

It will be a perfect chart from bottom to top in exactly one year, could it be so simple?

BTW, thanks for the blog, great insight.

Re: Fly Me to the Moon

simpletrade — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 16:01:47 -0000

Thanks, I followed you guys from ES,XT and SOH.
I think something is up in AAPL. It's down $4 in last 10 minutes yesterday and down again today.
SOS, IWM is the leader at 3PM EST, so it's close to a top, I think. But I am short so maybe I only pick up the weakness I see.

Re: Fly Me to the Moon

simpletrade — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:44:41 -0000

AAPL is weak, yesterday it went down just before the close. Today oil is weak, can we get another new high or this is it?
I am short, BTW.

Thanks for the blog, it's nice to find a blog focus on trading. Great work guys.

Re: Come get your laptop!!!

simpletrade — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 23:49:10 -0000

Glad you get an offer. Hope you continue to drop a note or two about the market when you have time.

Good luck!

Re: Introduction to Wine Investing - Part 3 (by Scrillhog and Biffermas)

simpletrade — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:46:59 -0000

Hi guys, I am posting here because I read this site, and I know there are lot of great traders here. Some of you may know winace(he used to post a lot), I just visited his site at http://www.channellines.com/, seems to me he suffered huge loss in the market, please stop by and say a few encouraged words to a fellow trader.

Re: Time...

simpletrade — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:23:27 -0000

I am so sorry to hear this. Your thought on market is ahead of the curve, you're smart and I think you will find job and eventually be successful. Don't give up, don't ever give up!
I lost lot of money in 2007 by shorting the market, and then by longing the market in 2008. I switched to short again recently, my experience is, I won initially, then lost bigger in larger bet. So I am cutting down my positions now to learn more from market. I still have a decent job, so I know what you're talking about.
A man can handle defeat and failure, don't give up, you're far better than these who never enter the market and who don't know a thing about investment and trading, so cheerish your experience and come back stronger.
I will look forward to seeing you comeback, to share your thought again!

Actually I saw lot of blogger put on ads on their blogger, and if traffic is good and people are clicking the ads, you can make some money, not a lot, but still decent amount. If you put in Google ads and continue your posts(if won't take much since you already know market, and you just need a computer to publish), I know i will visit and click on adds, i want to support a fellow trader. Just be honest about your thought and share your thought to other traders, I am sure people are willing to click adds to support a fellow trader.

Don't give up, yes, we maybe wrong, we lost money, but we tried and that's what counts. First, find a way to make a living, then, if you start to trade again, trade small, gradually grow your confidence.

I know lot of successful people, they all attributed their success to their failure, so, whatever you do in the future, don't give up. People try 100%, with the failure and luck we had so far, we need to try 200%, 1000%! We can't promise success, but we can promise hard work, and never give up!

George, please, promise us, you'll come back!

Re: Probability 2

simpletrade — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 17:31:27 -0000

KS,

Interesting to see your next post.

I think, most average people are fearful of risk, since these are so random, so they just buy insurance against it: for example, being conservative in trading, business, etc. As a result, they lost big collectively in the long run.

Smart people take chances, and take risks. The best model should be the insurance company, selling fears and collectively in the long run, win big. Warren Buffett model.

Too greedy in taking risk will result in failure. AIG.

Again I like to use poker as an example, all the players with positive ROI are aggressive enough to take advantage of the fear(risk aversion of other players) to win, since in a long run, the luck/odds for all players are almost the same, so they only way you win is to collect some hands when others are afraid of losing, you bet, they fold.

Hope to see you post again, whenever you have time.

Re: California sells $8.8 bln in notes to record retail demand

simpletrade — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 16:14:04 -0000

Great comments on market. I started to add shorts since end of July, I am glad I waited recently to add most of the positions, and sold most of them (TZA, TYP,SRS and QID) last week for a decent profit. Added some of the positions back today towards the close.
Today I think the close is really weak, that's pretty rare since the March low, and I expect a correction like the June/July correction, it could very well be the sell off as your predicted.

Re: Commitment of Traders 09/15/2009

simpletrade — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 11:45:58 -0000

Great thought, I am sure only a few in trading community even care about the reality, they just trade and want to make money.
Eventually, market will come back to reality, maybe this year, maybe next year.
Whenever people think they can create things out of thin air, the result won't be pretty.
Hope you can just put your thought on your blog so it's easy to follow.

Re: Probability 2

simpletrade — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 22:27:14 -0000

I don't know what's behind the seemly random event, but someone figured out and did it, and people started to talk about it.
But one thing I know for sure, doing regular activities, working the same way year after year, one will not achieve anything meaningful in life.
I am in a software company, I am one of these who are doing regular activities year after year.
If one thing, I truly think will make a difference, is to do whatever it takes to do something you really love, and work hard. That, is always behind every success story.
Look back at history, these who did it, it's more vision, gut, heart, than smart and know how.

So, I am still searching....

Re: Probability 2

simpletrade — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 11:57:17 -0000

Great post as always. I am sure these who know, will keep it, since once it's knowledge and shared, the reward will be diminished.

From recent history, one can argue that lot of great events were done by these with seemly unfavored odds, in China, in Europe and USA.

So I agree with you, there are great opportunities in these seemly random events, since it's rewarded by probability (but the actual odd is almost 1 to 1), these who know this, will be rewarded greatly.

I will add more comment this weekend when I am free from my current project.

Re: Black Arb

simpletrade — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 12:31:30 -0000

KS,

Thanks for the recommendation of the book "Against the Gods",I read parts of it and I like it. I also start to read "Fortune's Formula".

I think in general, in life, there are lot of "low odds" opportunities, actually offer great returns, in market, in business, etc. These so called risks, are actually the ones I should take more; on the other hand, there are lot of so called popular opportunities(many people are chasing them), are actually bad for me, I should avoid it, since the reward is very low, even it's right since so many are already there to split the pot.

I am learning these concepts, and will apply to daily life, specially in trading and in poker.

I usually play poker two to three days a week, from Friday night to Sunday when I have time. And I found that, I lost almost all my hard earned winnings in big tournaments(like the $370 WSOP qualifier and $215 Sunday millions), and I made all the money in small tournaments or "sit and go". I deposited only $60 in Dec. 2007, and went to over $300 a few times, and back to $0 a few times, and I used the frequent points to make a few dollars back, and even played $0.10 tournaments. Now I am back over $200. I'll use this as an experiment, and I found that, money management is even more important than winning. If I lost more, then I need to lower the level I am playing, same as in the market. There are lot of meanings of this experiment, one can argue that living a life is like playing poker: these who are too conservative or on tilt won't make it big, and luck is also part of the game.
On the other hand, I think if you don't take risk, you will never win anything meaningful in life: you have to be at the table in order to win the game.

The meaning of life is not winning big, but rather, try something really hard, then regardless the result, you can say: I tried hard and I had no regret.

Looking forward to your next post.

Re: Black Arb

simpletrade — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 18:06:19 -0000

KingShort, still waiting for your next post. I like "headaches and stress are good!", that means I am doing something real.

I tried recently to win a satellite ticket to play this year's WSOP main event, but I failed several times, best showing was two weeks ago in Poker Stars' 200 WSOP package event(I won a satellite to that event), it sent 233 to WSOP main event, I finished at 661 out of over 8000 players. Since I started to play poker in Nov. 2007, I think I am not bad, and I didn't lose money by playing poker at PokerStars, unlike my trading:-)

I learned a lot of from trading and poker. Also just read "The Black Swan" by Nassim Taleb, I like it.

I like your posts, it's different, it's not the shortcut, rather, it tells people there are different ways.

Hope to see your next post.

Re: Market (Lack Of) Action Charts

simpletrade — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 18:28:20 -0000

Check this out:
http://www.reuters.com/arti...

Re: Black Arb

simpletrade — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 18:07:31 -0000

Great post KS. Enjoy your blog!
I like the idea of improving a complex system, but before that, one has to decide to take risk and do meaningful things in life, regardless one's age and circumstance. If I don't have a purpose, there is no need to improve.

Now back to your graph, I'll go one step further, what's the restriction preventing passing the items from 1 to 9 directly? Since 9 is the only critical stop to out? Or skip a few stops.
There are lot of complex systems that's designed by people who are not fully understanding the system, many processes can be eliminated to enhance the system if one truly understands the system.

Re: A small blog to share ideas..

simpletrade — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 00:27:52 -0000

Great to see your new blog, KS.

Re: Chart of $SPX

simpletrade — Tue, 26 May 2009 22:47:38 -0000

Best luck to you.

I learned lot of things from blogs, including "stop taking tips from financial blogs".

I found there is another "simpletrade" on this blog, what a small world. Maybe it's time for me to stop posting as well.

Best luck to everyone and good trading!