Disqus - Latest Comments for simongilligan

Re: Send Props to Children in React

Simon Gilligan — Tue, 30 Jun 2015 23:41:36 -0000

I think contexts might make this easier going forward? eg https://blog.jscrambler.com...

Re: Quickflix sells its pound of flesh

Simon Gilligan — Wed, 26 Dec 2012 20:31:36 -0000

Yes, interesting times. The Australian movie market is a very different beast to the US and Europe. Our conditions are not unique however - South Africa is similar with their subscription effort http://pushplay.co.za struggling for traction. What I'd like to see though, is that while Quickflx is working hard to provide a legal streaming service (and cudos to them), they should take a stronger, visible stance in the piracy debate that could at least partially rebalance Australia's rampant piracy. Per capita, Australia is the worst piracy nation on the globe (http://havocscope.com/movie... making their progress that much harder.

Re: Quickflix movies to stream to PS3

Simon Gilligan — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 23:25:42 -0000

Since when does separating out two logical org units into separate businesses mean killing off?

Re: Quickflix movies to stream to PS3

Simon Gilligan — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 22:54:12 -0000

Well ... Quickflix has never had a streaming service, that's why you can't find any info. That 2009 launch you referred to? It was a Warner Brothers initiative that Quickflix linked out to, from their site. I linked to it as well from APPLEBOX, as did Blockbuster, EzyDVD, Network Video and Bigdpond. You'll find my comments on that here: http://applebox.com.au/blog...

Re Netflix trying to dump their DVD model altogether .. that's hilarous! Where did you get that from?? It couldn't be further from the truth.

Re: Govt proposes “streamlined” piracy controls

Simon Gilligan — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 10:52:16 -0000

Re: Govt proposes “streamlined” piracy controls

Simon Gilligan — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 10:49:47 -0000

The question is it commercially viable?

Consider Netflix - a company now 14 years hold, built with $32 million startup capital, now has 23.6 million subscribers. It took 12 years to get their business to a point where they could underwrite the streaming efforts and weather their streaming losses. Hulu - amazing effort to hit profitability with 1 million members (of 300 million Americans). Funded by some very deep pockets.

Now take those two companies and translate them to working in a regional context of Australia. Those commercial profiles are a scary proposition here. Netflix has needed Australia's entire population to be signed to find the customer base to support their streaming efforts. Going to happen here? no. Hulu is considered wildly popular - but at 1 million members has less than a 0.5% adoption rate in the US. In AU - that would bring maybe, 80,000 customers? Is that viable here? no.

We're a tiny market and every effort here so far, has failed or is sustaining losses. I've spoken to one studio biz dev person (here in au) who said iTMS is their biggest online customer, but they make literally no money out of it. For them it's a way of assessing demand for the content online and learning about that distribution model.

But .. digital distribution could be global, why can't netflix/hulu/whoever just extend their network to here? Ultimately I'm sure they will. If Apple can do it, others can. However, you don't reform global industries that have developed via local distribution networks in the space of a few years. The local distribution networks are commoditised, very efficient and deliver their content to retail aggregators (e.g. jb hifi/ezydvd/videoezy) which still give the customer a huge range of choice in one place. They are still very valuable.

The industry is trying to move to a unified distribution model - streaming and physical media. Ultraviolet (http://www.uvvu.com/) is an example of where that's going. It's very early days, but we'll see where it goes.

Re: Govt proposes “streamlined” piracy controls

Simon Gilligan — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 09:06:23 -0000

Well, if you did actually look, you'd find failed effort after failed effort. The reality is online distribution of movies is a dicey proposition. There hasn't been a lot of success out there. Australia is piss-ant in size, and despite some vocal piracy advocates (honest, I'm only doing it as a protest against a broken distribution model) it just wouldn't get the uptake with most Aussies not even in the headspace of getting their movies online. Netflix is your pinup child but if it hadn't launched streaming off the back of an amazing DVD business their online aspirations would still only be a glint in Reed Hastings eye.

Re: Govt proposes “streamlined” piracy controls

Simon Gilligan — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 08:54:02 -0000

Don't want to be pedantic, but an industry is not an organisation.

Re: Govt proposes “streamlined” piracy controls

Simon Gilligan — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 08:46:02 -0000

I think you forgot the rest of it .. 'by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries.'

which is .. um .. ip

Re: DVD rental is a dying business, is online video replacing it?

Simon Gilligan — Sun, 09 Oct 2011 03:56:30 -0000

Nice roundup - I can only think of http://www.qriocity.com/ as being missed. I think uptake of legal download services is close to negligible. Vending machines and DVD mail-order have only a small impact, piracy has a big impact, but mainly, the world has simply changed. Home entertainment is now not only serviced by local DVD rental - anyone with Internet access can wile away an evening on Facebook, email, youtube, twitter, foxtel, xbox, ps3 .. the list goes on. They no longer have to head off to the local video store. So store revenue has plateaued (and is in decline) but lease and labour costs continue to rise - stores are squeezed and without re-working their cost base, they're closing.

Re: Apple just lost Australia’s smartphone conch

Simon Gilligan — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 03:05:40 -0000

My guess is you don't have a problem speaking normally to your phone as part of a call .. so what's the difference to saying 'remind me at 5.30 to pickup milk' with Siri on the end?

you might be right though .. it might fall flat, but then again it might not. if one thing we learn from apple, they dont do things half baked. time will tell..

Re: Apple just lost Australia’s smartphone conch

Simon Gilligan — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 04:07:14 -0000

No real thoughts on Siri? UI is one vector of engagement with a phone. Voice control is another. If Siri is done well, it could be a game changer and leave Android completely flat footed.

Re: Towards a more complex NBN argument

Simon Gilligan — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 06:33:15 -0000

Yikes .. nice attitude. What's one of the pillars of the Australian economy? Small business.

Re: Amazon opens Australian office

Simon Gilligan — Sat, 16 Jul 2011 04:49:13 -0000

hmmm .. netflix use AWS for a lot of their stuff .. and with rumours of them looking to the UK for 2012 following their South America expansion, they are making some aggressive moves.

With a local AWS, that would certainly ease their access into Asia-Pac .. perhaps we might see them here earlier than we think? it certainly would put a kink in Quicklfix's plans and deliver Amazon a big paying customer to kick them quickly into gear.

Re: AFACT issues BitTorrent warning to ISPs

Simon Gilligan — Sun, 10 Jul 2011 14:40:51 -0000

> cant pay the big bucks to distributers

From my angle this isn't the cause of smaller theatres closing down. I don't see victimisation but maybe you've info I haven't. The theatre market is changing as the Internet continues to force a re-adjustment for all businesses involved with entertainment. Specific to theatres, tech wise they're on a slower upgrade cycle for their exhibition equipment than what the rest of the market is moving at (projectors, sound and still using film stock). The boom in home theatre is putting them under pressure and they're less able to take advantage of 'tentpole' offerings (tentpole being flicks that earn the biggest and support the cinema for the rest of the time). Digital distribution is being introduced but the cinemas need to re-kit for digital projection (=$$$).

Personally, I'm sick of a blurry theatrical experience, so I hardly go anymore. I watch my flicks on Blu-ray at home with a pristine picture and great sound. If a cinema advertised they projected with 8k (or even 4k) equipment I'd be back. But the chains have pushed 3D (digital) and not focused on HD.

Re: BitTorrent war: Will ‘six strikes’ policy come to Australia?

Simon Gilligan — Sun, 10 Jul 2011 14:08:50 -0000

> Are you arguing against these options because they don’t seem to be making much impact over in the US?

No I'm not. I think this supports a great business case that there is demand for a Netflix-like service in other regions. Perhaps we will get something like it here sooner rather than later. To whoever can crack it good luck to them.

My point is that it's time to debunk the myth that 'piracy is happening because I don't have access to .. Netflix/Hulu/Boxee/Whatever'. The evidence doesn't support this. Sandvine has just shown that the introduction and then rapid rise in popularity of arguably the worlds most popular legal service to North America has done nothing to stem that region's bittorrent traffic whatsoever. People are still pirating just as much as they ever were. Sandvine's own analysis highlights this 'seemingly contradictory' result.

Re we should at least have useable alternatives before an x-strikes ISP policy is introduced here (leaving aside Xbox-Live, Apple Itunes, Foxtel box-office, Qriocity, Bigpondmovies downloads) - my stance is baloney. Piracy is not related to a perceived lack of legit offerings. Piracy is about getting content for free and not being nabbed for it.

You, or Graham, or anybody else can but your hand on your heart and say no way - I'd love to use a legit service if available at a reasonable price - that's great and I'll believe you. I'll also happily accept there are a bunch of you out there. But sadly, the evidence shows the rest of the crowd don't behave like you.

Re: BitTorrent war: Will ‘six strikes’ policy come to Australia?

Simon Gilligan — Sun, 10 Jul 2011 13:34:42 -0000

That's another angle, but I don't think that really changes the analysis. Sandvines own statement : 'the continued growth of Real-Time Entertainment enables a seemingly contradictory conclusion: P2P Filesharing is here to stay.'

Re: BitTorrent war: Will ‘six strikes’ policy come to Australia?

Simon Gilligan — Sun, 10 Jul 2011 06:01:52 -0000

Problem is .. the evidence doesn't show the presence of legal options reduces piracy levels at all.

Netflix's meteoric rise to being the single biggest source of peak downstream traffic in North America for 2011 should see a corresponding drop in bittorrent traffic right? As all those pirating see the light and adopt the legal way. Here are the year-on North American figures:

fall 2010: Netflix: 20.61% Bittorrent: 8.39%
http://www.sandvine.com/dow...

spring 2011: Netflix: 29.7% Bittorent: 10.37%
http://www.wired.com/images...

Wait .. we've seen a 10% increase in Netflix traffic .. AND .. a 2% increase in Bittorent traffic.

Looking at it globally (again, all figures available via the Sandvine reports), for the last 3 years, downstream bittorrent traffic hovers around the 18-20% mark - despite the huge gains in traffic made by Hulu, Netflix and others. Seems to me legal sources are additive to the viewing mix, but are no solution to dropping piracy in itself.

Re: AFACT issues BitTorrent warning to ISPs

Simon Gilligan — Sat, 09 Jul 2011 04:05:34 -0000

> I do not think that the actions AFACT are attempting to take and the powers they are attempting to acquire over our free and private communication are just.

Well .. that's a good concise objection I can work with. This discussion is broad ranging and takes a bit of work to whittle down to the key point(s). I'm happy to put aside the question of business models and IP rights and focus on the best mechanisms to support IP protection. Admittedly .. I need to be better informed. The AFACT model vs overseas models, protecting IP vs infringing privacy rights.

In any case, the only progress on this front has come from AFACT pursuing a hard line. Perhaps thats the nature of negotiation. We'll see where it all goes.

Re: AFACT issues BitTorrent warning to ISPs

Simon Gilligan — Sat, 09 Jul 2011 03:09:48 -0000

@Tezz:

> people are using other methods to get their movies.

Markets change - I'm good with that. My point was that I know the industry which has come from a mixture of physically operating within it, to following all the analysis and developments within it. I don't expect others to have that exposure (or interest). I see the impact of people pirating as one of the factors of a changing marketplace, and can see it in the mix of inputs that makes todays marketplace very different to what it was 5 or 10 years ago.

> First off, it isn’t pro-piracy FUD

The implication is that piracy has no material impact on the rental and retail markets. That's just plain incorrect.

> it would be very easy for you to pull figures saying video rental stores, store sales, etc, are dropping, because .. You've even got BP movies where you don't need a physical product.

My ability to analyse local store volumes in the context of a broader changing market is a little more nuanced than that. Yes I know BigPondMovies doesn't deliver a physical product.

> no offense
non taken

> pitch movies, so does everyone else in the world

Agreed. What I should have been clear on is the impact of piracy on the change to the health of the local film industry over the last 10 years. There's a whole white paper on that, but my observations are anecdotal from direct contact with the industry. Perhaps Renai should try and solicit a response from an local film maker about piracy, rather than AFACT.

> The distribution model needs to change, end of story.

I agree and have never said otherwise. In fact, new online models will benefit my business as my members are already online and I'm ready to give them access into a download service or keep renting them DVDs when that suits. My initial comments to you were that this industry has a legacy that is fragmented on a global scale to a degree most people have no idea of. I tried to show how hard change will be. One of the biggest regional centres in the World (the USA) is only getting started on delivering new models of distribution, and yet you felt it should be rolled out here on the same timeline. Looking from the outside it's a fair question to 'why can't we just do a Hulu here?' Economics 101 surely. I say there's a whole bunch of reasons why. In the meantime, piracy is real and it is happening unabated. I support the rights to protect the works of content creators.

@NightKhaos

>I feel for you struggling with your business, but Simon, you also call cry “piracy!” everytime you have a slow month .. did you notice?

Thanks for you empathy, but don't confuse me with your regular video store. I've got a very different model and a very different outlook. I don't cry piracy on a slow month, and I see the market changing for a whole bunch of reasons. I'm happy with video stores not getting the results they had 5-10 years ago. The world has changed around us and unless we adapt we disappear (and a lot of them are). Having said that, piracy still has it's impact and a nudge-nudge-wink-wink 'one word - tor' attitude is oblivious to the impact piracy has and I will oppose it.

> not legally allowed to intercept communications over their network

ok. However, iiNet have proposed their own means of dealing with IP breaches, which they've only done following AFACTs action on them. They've been forced to acknowledge that perhaps there is something they can do to protect IP, and that IP is worth protecting. This is a start, and once again, only resulting from AFACT action.

> .. cry foul when people find other means to acquire a similar product .. the same product

Hmmm .. sounding very neutral there. No mention of stealing content, of piracy. Imagine if that translated to all commerce? 'Gee Officer, sorry but I felt Holden were asking too much for a commodore, so I found a means to acquire it off the back of the transport shipping their product around.'

> That’s not JUST because of piracy.

Piracy is the illegal component of a composite of reasons that have lead to a market change. It is every content creators or content distributors right to oppose it.

> piracy isn’t the thing that is killing you

My statement is that piracy is illegally taking a component of my income and a component of the film maker's income that we have every right to protect. I'm just a voice from local business, a small player, but if you think I don't have a right to protect that income, then so be it.

Re: AFACT issues BitTorrent warning to ISPs

Simon Gilligan — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 13:14:25 -0000

> 1. AFACT overstate the damage piracy causes.
That may or may not be true, however I run a local video store (http://applebox.com.au), I also deal with local film makers. Theoretical statements of impact are irrelevant to me, as I see first hand the impact piracy has on my business and that of the local film industry. It is very real.

> 2. AFACT and the rights to free and private communication.
When those rights are widely abused to rip off content, we have a dilemma. I clearly side with the rights to protect IP. ISPs have full visibility of where you browse - so no privacy there already. Take content that's not yours, then there are repercussions. I speed too often and my right to drive a car is revoked. The model of handling that repercussion? Well AFACT are banging their heads against ISPs who don't want to talk about it. And granted, it's a difficult discussion, but world wide that discussion is starting to happen.

> if you actually look at the figures movie and music revenues have been increasing even with all this piracy going on.
Believe me I have, and this is one of the biggest bits of pro-piracy FUD circulating. For every stat you find that says piracy hasn't constrained growth, I'll shoot back to you 3 that say the opposite. As I mentioned up front, I materially feel the impact first hand.

> But who decides what a fair price is ?
Consumers decide by either buying the product or not.

> But actors and filmmakers make too much money anyway, so it doesn't bother me
I actually think this is the guts of the problem. Models that tap popular entertainment (film/music/print) at one end can make squillions of dollars and we see actors/directors/artists/studios indulge in all sorts of excess that leaves me a little hard to empathise on their lost earnings from piracy. Unfortunately, the impact of piracy doesn't stop there. It is heavily felt at the other end of the spectrum where smaller endeavours live on the breadline. The value of renting or buying a DVD is so devalued, that those that aren't in the mainstream have huge problems making a living from it. The number of talented people I know that struggle to earn from, and get their work published is disheartening. Case in point. I created a short film (http://applebox.com.au/#/ch... with a fantastic director, professional actors and a crew that are all dedicated to their art. Each can tell you first hand how hard it is to make a living from what they do. Does piracy impact them? You betcha, as to make a movie they've got to pitch for financing and good luck on working up decent ROI figures for that.

Arguing against methods to limit piracy are hard in this forum, as most people here have no connection to the industry and are completely isolated from it's impact. Gather a bunch of film makers and actors trying to make their living locally, and you might get a different picture.

I think the studio and distribution system needs change. No doubt. But by allowing content to be so readily pirated devalues the end-product which makes life very hard for a lot of people.

Re: AFACT issues BitTorrent warning to ISPs

Simon Gilligan — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 04:22:30 -0000

yes .. my last post did descend into a bit of a rant! By the way, Blu-ray is brilliant. If there ever was an argument against ripped DVDs it's watch Blu-ray and realise what you're missing.

Re: AFACT issues BitTorrent warning to ISPs

Simon Gilligan — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 03:54:40 -0000

Our marketplace is littered with failed online initiatives that have tried to deliver what you want. Even so, there are still companies plugging away in that space - eg bigpondmovies, apple, xbox live. You want AFACT to just add another one to the mix? None of these services make any money, perhaps one day they will. In the meantime, we live with piracy on a massive scale that hurts not only content creators, but those also trying to offer a legal online service. The 'market failure' argument is a straw-man. Pure and simple. I bet 99% of those that put that forward have never even tried a legal download option. Oh wait .. there will be a reason also why bpmovies, apple, xbox live isn't good enough. Nothing is good enough when you get your content for free.

Re: AFACT issues BitTorrent warning to ISPs

Simon Gilligan — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 01:41:01 -0000

In the US .. Hulu is within arms reach of both content creators and the existing distribution network. They’ve also 300 million people within that regional system so that at their current 1 million members (a massive .3% adoption rate) that should make it on track to be viable to do all the leg work, tech, legals, buy-outs. Try a .3% adoption rate here in AU and you’ve got a dead-in-the-water business (just ask Reeltime.tv that went bust a few years ago).

As for AFACTs message or tactics. Perhaps it could be better. But AFACT are just supporting the rights of content creators not to have their work ripped off. I support that.

Re: AFACT issues BitTorrent warning to ISPs

Simon Gilligan — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 01:08:31 -0000

I’m saying to distribute content here, Hulu must address the vested interests of all those companies that have built their livelihood and secured the rights for distributing the same content to the Australian public. That can cover dozens of companies which at the end of the distribution chain is fragmented beyond belief. That fragmentation has worked in that it gets available to you, a DVD copy of an amazing range of titles into your local JB (or video store) for a princely sum of $30 – but it’s an absolute bitch to negotiate with and assemble to work as one cohesive group. I can't tell you if it's viable. I certainly hope so, because clearly – it’s gotta change, but it’s going to take time.