Disqus - Friends of shifthappens

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/farewell_sierra.htm

urszula — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 17:13:32 -0000

EldarBob, I'm still thinking about your beloved cat. I had two sister cats, just on fifteen years old, much loved, who died within four weeks of each other. I've been an avid reader of this site since late March, when I found it, much to my delight. The only in any way market comment I have at the moment regards bkudla's one about gold: didn't Gordon Brown get rid of a lot of it when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer...on Greenspan's advice, I read somewhere. Also apart from Switzerland, Venezuela has,I think, a lot of the old aurum.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/farewell_sierra.htm

urszula — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 17:50:35 -0000

Forgot something in my first comment here: someone posted a screencast link to a candle chart of the mini-S&P 500, entitled "Slide into the Abyss". That's some chart! It forecasts a massive descent beginning circa 5th August. While dire forecasts are two a penny at the moment, I was still very struck by the chart.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/those_amazing_analysts.htm

urszula — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 20:24:50 -0000

When I run out of fresh material to read - or digest - on this site, I dive into the archives. A lot of it is Latvian to me, and may remain so. Generous, mercurial, good-natured Tim, what an odd & piquant microcosm this Slope of Hope is!

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/those_amazing_analysts.htm

urszula — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 21:51:49 -0000

R.Prechter is occasionally mentioned on this site. I saw him on Bloomberg some months ago and was quite impressed...until I found that he predicted the market would plummet more than 50% over the next 2 years, and result in a depression - in November 1996. This bloke has been singing the same old song for a long, long time.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/those_amazing_analysts.htm

urszula — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 02:45:28 -0000

Ah humour, there's nothing like it.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/those_amazing_analysts.htm

urszula — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 02:50:18 -0000

Yes.But. You're right.But...Hey molecool, you're the one who posted the link to that screenscast "Slide into the Abyss" chart that interested me,aren't you? Thanks.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/farewell_sierra.htm

urszula — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 02:56:35 -0000

I look forward to your posts. They spark much discussion in this little household.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/farewell_sierra.htm

urszula — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 03:31:09 -0000

My apologies.I do,on occasion, jumble things up when I haven't slept for 36 hours.Like now. I, too, am allergic to cats. Most of 'em. Including my own. After the first month or two I wouldn't've parted with them for anything; not gold, not silver, not a month in Old Beijing. Someone told me not long ago that there are homeopathic remedies that work: drops that you put under your tongue, like the Bach flower remedies. Cats ensorcel you. All that sneezing, the eyes that reddened after you caressed your cat and forgot to wash your hands before touching your face...none of it will matter because your daughter will have a companion like no other and you, bkudla, will have slipped beneath a spell. If you get the right cat.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/those_amazing_analysts.htm

urszula — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 04:09:06 -0000

I want some! I want some! So that when my husband gets home from work at five or six in the morning, half dead with fatigue, he'll be able to laugh all that weariness away.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/those_amazing_analysts.htm

urszula — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 06:02:27 -0000

Does anyone here watch the Tech Analysts on CNBC's Squawk Box Europe? Recording them daily for my better half was how I became interested in TA. Roelof van der Akker, Cees Quirijns in the Netherlands, Susanne Marschner in Germany, Richard Morrish in Switzerland...I'm raising this because my real interests lie in gold, silver & oil, and last Friday R.Morrish forecast, with some provisos, that gold would either consolidate until 21st September and then breakout from the $957 level OR trade up to $1023.72 by the 21st August; he saw no bearish patterning and thought the harmonics were running quite well, the target for the end of 08-early 09 being $1298. For oil he said he correctly called the $147 level on the same program on the 28th December...and now expected it to trade down to the $120-127 level by the 5th August...then more consolidation before an October run to $156, expecting it to reach $173.69 on the 17th April 09 OR to ascend to $211.50/75. I've seen Morrish quite a few times now and regard him as sound. Although I expect oil to reach $161 in the short to medium term, I was taken aback by his analysis last Friday. Perhaps I'm unsettled by the thought that only a calamitous geopolitical event would push oil to $211 by April.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/those_amazing_analysts.htm

urszula — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 07:18:11 -0000

Each to his own,Uppy.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/those_amazing_analysts.htm

urszula — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 08:04:35 -0000

I have a complaint . My "I want some!" etc comment was in response to TK's waggish link to armorofgodpyjamas. Separated from TK's comment it has other connotations - ones I did not intend. I ain't happy.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/those_amazing_analysts.htm

urszula — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 08:28:04 -0000

Olney's comment doesn't make any sense to me : "you've got 20pc wage inflation in emerging markets so FDI is flowing back here". Twenty per cent up from a very low base.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/psa.htm

urszula — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 12:12:07 -0000

Heard about Cuil? Anna Patterson's latest invention. Pronounced "cool" its search index spans 120bn web pages, which may be 3 times the size of GOOG's.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/personalized_advice.htm

urszula — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 21:23:08 -0000

I'm not sure about Citi.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/cautiously_pessismistic.htm

urszula — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 07:30:32 -0000

I want to STRONGLY urge all traders to view the video of today's tech.analyst on CNBC's Squawk Box Europe. I wish I knew how to provide a direct link, but I don't so I can't . My apologies. The vid is entitled "Dow to move to 9350 in second half". The analysis is by one of my favourites, Roelof van den Akker who I have been following for certainly more than a year. He's proved himself to me, otherwise I wouldn't bother urging you to spend three minutes of your precious time watching it.
I'd also like to make a comment about CNBC & Bloomberg. I watch very little of either. Re CNBC: IMHO Squawk Box Europe offers me two things I value: the daily TA at about 70 minutes before the London market opens; and , every 8 or so

weeks there'll have as guest host for two hours from the time the London mkt opens the incisive Philip Manduca. (I don't like all the blather in between the contributions of the guest host, or the ads, so I record the whole thing and watch it at my leisure.) Sometimes they'll have Marc Faber and I'll also watch him. I don't really know how accurate he is - I think his timing's off - but he's VERY entertaining, and has a head for statistics stretching back to ... 1980/thereabouts. I simply can't watch US Squawk Box, despite having a mild crush on Mark Haines (the timbre of his voice; his demeanour). As for the despicable Jim Cramer and the insufferable Larry Cudlow - I think you guys & gals have said it all.
On Bloomberg I'll watch Jim Rogers any day, and Philip Manduca also turns up there every 8-10 weeks on their...I think it's called "Analyse This" 30min program, which begins 1/2 hour after the London mkt opens. The benefit of this program is that the guest is questioned by a sole anchorperson; it's a real conversation and you get some depth - i.e. extended arguments can be put because there aren't the time constraints of most programs. I had planned to type out a full transcription of the TA video, so that all readers here would have it in black & white, and could find the video if they had the time and inclination. I haven't done so because it's a bit tedious and I'm not feeling very zippy today. C'est tout.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/cautiously_pessismistic.htm

urszula — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 07:45:46 -0000

I meant to add that Roelof's contribution is an opinion that,, to me, has a sound basis. Good old 2Sweeties and others can express contempt for TA to their heart's content. If all TA is misguided at best, and arrant stupidity at worst, why are TK and so many of us doing so nicely?

By sheer chance? Come on.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/cautiously_pessismistic.htm

urszula — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 07:47:26 -0000

Thanks a million.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/cautiously_pessismistic.htm

urszula — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:02:14 -0000

"Like a rose that is similar to another rose but not exactly identical." Bellissimo !
And many thanks.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/cautiously_pessismistic.htm

urszula — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:24:14 -0000

Thanks for responding. I don't use TA but my BH (Better Half) does and he's doing well. As I've explained elsewhere on this site I became interested in TA in March because I was recording the Tech Analyst on Squawk Box Europe every trading day for my BH. I find it intriguing : the history of candle charts,e.g.; the patternings...its partly an aesthetic thing for me. What I may do in about November, when I don't have so much on my plate - more time available because less time spent on daily study - is, just for fun, paper trade using TA AND my own method; for, like you, I have a singular method. It's nothing like yours and you would, probably, pour scorn on it because there are no algorithms involved though I could say it has a Pythagorean aspect. But I'm not going to describe it. I created it, it's working - so far. I don't wish to make this post much longer because I'm not feeling very zippy today and, where I am, the Dow"s about to open and I must get on.
Finally, I can make no claim to a vast amount of knowledge re TA or trading in general; I certainly don't have your experience - nothing like it. I can see your point about percentages overall. Another time I will do a post about Sun Tzu and the ever-luminous Lao Tzu.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/cautiously_pessismistic.htm

urszula — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:41:47 -0000

I really don't have the time to write this addendum to my previous post beginning "Thanks for responding" because the Dow's now trading but I just wish to add that when something works for you the intelligent thing is to continue to do it, while occasionally stepping away to get a fresher perspective. I practise qigong every morning & evening - e.g - and I gain immense benefit from it. I happen to have been a bit off-colour yesterday and today but this is a very rare occurrence (? sp) for me. When I'm away from home and have to skip my usual practice for one reason or another, I notice the difference straightaway let me tell you! So I continue with my practice . I continue to do what works.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/cautiously_pessismistic.htm

urszula — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 10:09:10 -0000

I'm not sure if I'm permitted to reply to myself but I'm going to. I just looked over the post of mine above, while I had a moment and - Jeez! - I told you I was feeling off-colour but "where I am the Dow's about to open" ???? What I meant was that where I am it's now approx 12.10am and I'm not feeling the best and I've got to gather my wits and , unless it's one of those Dow days (nights to me) where it meanders and doesn't know what to do with itself, I won't get to my bed till it closes at 6am my time. Or something to that effect.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/who_does_these_headlines.htm

urszula — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 10:48:19 -0000

This post is for 2Sweeties and anyone who shares my interests: a moment ago the Dow was up 130, with greater volume so far today/tonight; gold down nearly $14 to circa $914, silver $ 17.21 down 0.38 so therefore we don't even have to look at the euro to know that it must be down, and it is, to 1.5611 down 0.0133, and oil is $122.35 down $3.53 . I haven't checked out the geopolitical news for hours. Can't hypothesise yet why oil is down. Are gold & silver "consolidating" - or is there something else afoot ?
I read the Tao Te Ching for the first time at 14 or 15, and studied it a little. Some of it stayed with me but I didn't really study it again for years and, when I did, it was in conjunction with practising qigong. When in Beijing in 2002 - with all the destruction since then I probably wouldn't be able to find my way around some of the parts of central Beijing I grew to love - I found a copy of the Tao Te Ching in a bookshop on Wangfujing - a parallel text with the Chinese text in Ancient Chinese. It has become one of my treasures. When we take an interest in something and put our heart into it, even if our interest, in temporal terms, is comparatively brief, a seed is planted, deep in the psyche and, should our interest be reignited at a later date, we will find that during the time of dormancy, that seed has germinated.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/cautiously_pessismistic.htm

urszula — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:10:54 -0000

I like the kitco charts too and watch them closely.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/07/i_still_dig_dug.htm

urszula — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 12:06:57 -0000

I laughed out loud. It's bitterly cold where I am so after my laughter my teeth resumed their chattering.