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It sounds like a person may be just as safe (maybe more) betting on professional sports spreads than these \"prediction markets,\" because it would seem a heck of a lot easier for a company to manipulate when and how it would release a product--a company, I would think, has a great deal of control over the release of its products, for example, whereas a boxer may be more prepared than his opponant and winning a fight but goes down from a lucky shot. At least in professional sports nowadays, this kind of \"fixing\" much seems less likely to happen. Random thought, but I really am confused...", "is_last_child": false, "can_reply": true, "down_voted": false, "real_date": "2009-11-20_16:02:18", "killed": false, "user_key": "c9db586eb6a73d4f04f419db8c3438c1", "has_been_anonymized": false, "edited": false, "author_is_moderator": false, "from_request_user": null, "votable": true, "date": "11/20/2009 04:02 PM", "approved": true, "num_replies": 0, "is_first_child": false, "email": "", "parent_post_id": null, "depth": 0, "points": 0, "author_is_creator": false, "is_realtime": false}, "8465286": {"up_voted": false, "ip": "", "has_replies": false, "message": "Just writing about Spigit, which has a nice prediction market capability to harvest employee intelligence and forecast likely successes for enterprise initiatives.  Check it out: <a href=\"http://www.spigit.com/products/predmarket.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">http://www.spigit.com/products/predmarket.html</a>  (Just a cool product, I'm not affiliated.)", "is_last_child": false, "can_reply": true, "down_voted": false, "real_date": "2009-04-20_16:07:18", "killed": false, "user_key": "itsinsider", "has_been_anonymized": false, "edited": false, "author_is_moderator": false, "from_request_user": false, "votable": true, "date": "04/20/2009 03:07 PM", "approved": true, "num_replies": 0, "is_first_child": false, "email": "", "parent_post_id": null, "depth": 0, "points": 0, "author_is_creator": false, "is_realtime": false}, "5487445": {"up_voted": false, "ip": "", "has_replies": false, "message": "I think the problem we have with prediction markets is that they are more like the options market than the stock market. I think the problem with getting the needed liquidity is found with the fact that it's a probability game which generally means the house wins. I do think that the social prediction markets has given way to new opportunities through niche opportunities. People feel they can invest in something they understand or have above average changes of knowing the outcome where the average person likely feels they have no idea what the stock market will do on any given day.", "is_last_child": false, "can_reply": true, "down_voted": false, "real_date": "2008-11-15_15:42:46", "killed": false, "user_key": "388479d2643a65d6cf3b43a744fdfdf3", "has_been_anonymized": false, "edited": false, "author_is_moderator": false, "from_request_user": null, "votable": true, "date": "11/15/2008 03:42 PM", "approved": true, "num_replies": 0, "is_first_child": false, "email": "", "parent_post_id": null, "depth": 0, "points": 0, "author_is_creator": false, "is_realtime": false}, "5487446": {"up_voted": false, "ip": "", "has_replies": false, "message": "Prediction markets are not quiet, are not subtle but a blunt instrument.They produce a straightforward, simple answer to a straightforward question\u00c2\u2014with a big public splat.", "is_last_child": false, "can_reply": true, "down_voted": false, "real_date": "2008-08-14_04:04:52", "killed": false, "user_key": "26d5338a17c9db54d7f342145999526b", "has_been_anonymized": false, "edited": false, "author_is_moderator": false, "from_request_user": null, "votable": true, "date": "08/14/2008 03:04 AM", "approved": true, "num_replies": 0, "is_first_child": false, "email": "", "parent_post_id": null, "depth": 0, "points": 0, "author_is_creator": false, "is_realtime": false}, "5487447": {"up_voted": false, "ip": "", "has_replies": false, "message": "Companies that are looking to use prediction markets in their business need to build a business case for doing so.In order to build that case, they need to determine what information can a market efficiently provide, and how can that improve their strategy and day-to-day operations?I like to address three main question areas that prediction markets can solve, and how you can start developing a business case based on the results of the improved forecasting.<br><br>The first, and perhaps most powerful, is project management.<br><br>Every project has various key milestones, and those on the critical path are even more visible to and closely watched by managers and executives.Most forecasting to date is largely self-reported by team leaders.They are largely meant to be as honest as possible in reporting project status.In reality, this is highly dependent on the company's culture, and in far too many businesses, project status is a commonly-known lie.(Unfortunately, this also means that it can be a politically dangerous kind of market to implement, since the project managers that tell these lies usually don't want to be exposed!)<br><br>The business case for a prediction market in project management should be calculated based on the effects of slips in a project's schedule.For projects or products where sales are front-loaded (such as films, major software releases, ground-breaking new drugs, and the like) a projects slip into the next fiscal quarter or next fiscal year could cause a serious impact in potential earnings.If that information was available weeks or months earlier, how would that affect sales, reputation in the marketplace, and other factors important in your industry?How much does it cost to plan for a major product roll-out in January, only to have to cancel it all and do it all over again in April?These are the questions that can build a business case for a project management prediction market.<br><br>The second type of market quantifies your industry.<br><br>In many industries, this means defining the cost of goods needing to be purchased, the quantity of goods or services to be sold, or the price potential of the goods or services to be sold.In some industries, this could mean quantifying the user growth of a given product.(Such as Google's prediction markets, How many users of [Google product] will we have at the end of Q3?]  This is the  classic case written about by HP's research center, when they asked their traders to predict sales figures for various products for the next quarter.It turned out they were measurably better than the forecasting system they had been using.<br><br>Quantifying a business case here is generally more computational, and therefore more straightforward.What are your costs associated with inventory of products that you can't sell because you thought there was more demand?How much less revenue do you earn because you have to discount products to move them out the door?Alternately, what are your costs associated with paying extra to ramp up capacity because you didn't realise the demand was as big as it was?How many lost sales did you experience because of empty shelves?These numbers are concrete and can hit your company\u00c3\u00a2\u00c2\u20ac\u00c2\u2122s bottom line.They can sometimes be the easiest way to prove your business case.<br><br>The third type of prediction market I want to discuss quantifies risk.", "is_last_child": false, "can_reply": true, "down_voted": false, "real_date": "2008-08-28_15:20:34", "killed": false, "user_key": "faf774eb3546cca8e69282c5e77dfafd", "has_been_anonymized": false, "edited": false, "author_is_moderator": false, "from_request_user": null, "votable": true, "date": "08/28/2008 02:20 PM", "approved": true, "num_replies": 0, "is_first_child": false, "email": "", "parent_post_id": null, "depth": 0, "points": 0, "author_is_creator": false, "is_realtime": false}, "5487448": {"up_voted": false, "ip": "", "has_replies": false, "message": "Several corporate executives, I have worked with, are much more comfortable with conceptual reasoning and analysis of historic data, than use quantitative methods for predicting future result of their decisions", "is_last_child": false, "can_reply": true, "down_voted": false, "real_date": "2008-04-26_18:16:56", "killed": false, "user_key": "742f756df35a39dc05adb5295bc1c4c8", "has_been_anonymized": false, "edited": false, "author_is_moderator": false, "from_request_user": null, "votable": true, "date": "04/26/2008 05:16 PM", "approved": true, "num_replies": 0, "is_first_child": false, "email": "", "parent_post_id": null, "depth": 0, "points": 0, "author_is_creator": false, "is_realtime": false}, "5487449": {"up_voted": false, "ip": "", "has_replies": false, "message": "Catching up on my blog reading...<br><br>Based on my conversations, there are a number of obstacles at present re: prediction markets in corps: <br><br>- most execs I talk with aren't familiar with prediction markets. Whereas everybody's heard of social networks, blogs, and wikis (even though a lot of people still aren't quite sure what a wiki is). <br><br>- prediction markets are a more difficult concept to understand (vs social networks, blogs, wikis).  Thus significant education is required for execs and end-users. More education = bigger time suck thus lower ROI & opportunity cost.  <br><br>- the prediction market biz process is more complex and more integrated into existing decisions/processes, than is the process required to implement/support social networks/blogs/wikis. What outcome will be forecasted; what end-users will participate; what's the timing/schedule/due date; who will report the results and to what audiences; how will results be integrated into existing biz processes; etc. Again = more work, greater time sink, greater risk, lower ROI.  <br><br>- there aren't yet enough corporate examples of successful prediction market use.  Google and Microsoft have shared their experiences publicly; but those two are not seen by most companies as a realistic example for their own organizations. <br><br>We're definitely pre-chasm on prediction markets for corp use (whereas social networks are post chasm -- much wider adoption). <br><br>And here's the fundamental problem with prediction markets, IMO: the democratic, collective, participative nature of prediction markets comes into direct conflict with the hierarchical nature and existing communications patterns of most organizations. <br><br>Organizations are about the allocation of decision-making rights. Power is based upon who/what group has the authority/ability to make a decision. (Yes decisions can be subverted...but the official decision does matter in a very real way, even when it's not implemented effectively.) <br><br>Also, leadership (formal or informal) in any organization is very much about communication and dialectics: what information is provided to whom, what context and meaning is assigned to that information by the speaker, which points are emphasized and which are de-emphasized, etc. <br><br>Well crafted communications are key to productive dialogue and decision-making. Poorly crafted communications can be a major obstacle and even derail issues permanently. There's an enormous effort in organizations put into crafting effective communications. Yes, some of this is BS/spin....but some of it is legitimate communications work to communicate effectively between different constituencies/audiences. <br><br>Prediction markets pose a direct challenge to both of these (decision authority and well crafted communications). <br><br>Prediction markets second-guess the official management opinion/decision.  And by engaging a wide group of people, the pred market sends a meta-message that everybody's opinion is just as good as anybody else's. It also implies that any answer that differs from the collective wisdom is inherently 'wrong' in some way.  <br><br>Also, like all-hands meetings and employee surveys -- prediction markets are a collective group experience. And that is different from the ongoing efforts of managers to balance out many complex issues between their organization and others, and tailoring their communications for those various contexts. <br><br>For example, there can be many reasons why a manager's \"official\" forecast/prediction is modulated and differs from a group collective opinion. But those those nuances of social dynamics aren't accounted for, with a prediction market. <br><br>That is PM's strength -- the direct unmodulated answer -- but within an orgnanization/social dynamic, that's also a problem. <br><br>Prediction markets aren't quiet. They aren't subtle. They are a blunt instrument -- they produce a straightforward, simple answer to a straightforward question -- with a big public splat. <br><br>It's not about the specific answer per se. It's the bigger social context: of collectively and publicly involving a wide group of people in an issue that previously involved a select group only; the expectation that employees now have, for engagement and responsiveness and dialogue, after being asked to give their opinion. <br><br>Look at the angst that employee surveys and all-hands meetings can cause for management -- and that's for mechanisms that have been in use for decades and for which there is a lot of knowledge about how to use them effectively. And managers still stress over them. <br><br>Anything that stirs up collective action among employees is worrisome to managers. So it's no wonder that prediction markets, being a brand new democratic/collective mechanism, would cause a lot of anxiety and resistance among managers.", "is_last_child": false, "can_reply": true, "down_voted": false, "real_date": "2008-05-13_18:24:45", "killed": false, "user_key": "7a9c0af9def87fea28f55603b8c76259", "has_been_anonymized": false, "edited": false, "author_is_moderator": false, "from_request_user": null, "votable": true, "date": "05/13/2008 05:24 PM", "approved": true, "num_replies": 0, "is_first_child": false, "email": "", "parent_post_id": null, "depth": 0, "points": 0, "author_is_creator": false, "is_realtime": false}, "5487450": {"up_voted": false, "ip": "", "has_replies": false, "message": "Not that I have any deep rooted concerns on this topic, but I thought I might play devil's advocate.<br><br>\"Is it that companies don\u00c2\u2019t really want the most accurate information about future events to come out and be widely known?\"<br><br>Why I think companies may be right to be cool towards predictive markets: <br><br>1st:  An information market at a company is probably not efficient, (I know that the article claims that the Google market is \"reasonable efficient\", but so was Thailand's currency market before George Soros) and at best, the predictive market at a company is the weak form of market efficiency where the current price is reflective of the historical series of events.  Way too much room for manipulation in a market like this. <br><br>2nd:  Time value of money:  The instances when having an accurate prediction is worthwhile is when the stock value is at \"$1\" not at \"$80\".  Sure, I can very accurately predict when a movie ends when the credits roll, but I am a poor predictor when I am watching the trailers.  The problem is that businesses need accurate predictions during the trailers, not during the credits. <br><br>3:  Relationship of the outcome significance to the prediction market performance: <br><br>It is one thing to predict the if a new product will meet sales goals in yr 1, it is quite another to predict the success of breakthrough products like the ipod.    Why my concern?  I look to physics.  The biggest shakeup in physics over the last 300 years was the theory of relativity.  Problem, when Einstein developed the theory, scientists were almost universal in predicting the theory to be wrong/incorrect as compared to Newtonian physics.  Well, they were wrong.  Granted, this point doesn't dismiss predictive markets, but it does make me wonder how effective they really will be?<br><br>Having mention the above, if predictive markets do work, I certainly can foresee a time when companies, as a work performance measure, provide their employees with equal amounts of Goobles and have their employee's bet away.  The most successful will be evaluated and cultured for positions in strategic thinking roles within the firm.  Interesting", "is_last_child": false, "can_reply": true, "down_voted": false, "real_date": "2008-04-23_17:52:17", "killed": false, "user_key": "8828aec0d8f152bd2059fb566ec73e6b", "has_been_anonymized": false, "edited": false, "author_is_moderator": false, "from_request_user": null, "votable": true, "date": "04/23/2008 04:52 PM", "approved": true, "num_replies": 0, "is_first_child": false, "email": "", "parent_post_id": null, "depth": 0, "points": 0, "author_is_creator": false, "is_realtime": false}, "5487451": {"up_voted": false, "ip": "", "has_replies": false, "message": "I think the wisdom of crowds concept is great, and I think prediction markets make sense for external events, but I wonder about conflicts of interest on internal event betting.  If you're betting against a project being on time (or betting for it to come in at a later date), don't you have an incentive to \"slow roll\" any requests that come your way from that project?  Or worse if you're actually a member of that project?  <br><br>And think of the political games that could get played if someone wanted to make another team look like it was failing by betting heavily against their metrics?  Panicked execs saying \"Well, the market says your project is going to be a train wreck...\"<br><br>Professional sports has dealt with this problem for a very long time.  It's obviously a big no-no to have players betting on - or especially against - their own team.", "is_last_child": false, "can_reply": true, "down_voted": false, "real_date": "2008-04-21_17:20:28", "killed": false, "user_key": "84bf2c659d6469eeac370e4c979690f4", "has_been_anonymized": false, "edited": false, "author_is_moderator": false, "from_request_user": null, "votable": true, "date": "04/21/2008 04:20 PM", "approved": true, "num_replies": 0, "is_first_child": false, "email": "", "parent_post_id": null, "depth": 0, "points": 0, "author_is_creator": false, "is_realtime": false}, "5487452": {"up_voted": false, "ip": "", "has_replies": false, "message": "Oh, by the way, both Sox sux.  Go Cubs!", "is_last_child": false, "can_reply": true, "down_voted": false, "real_date": "2008-04-24_09:10:30", "killed": false, "user_key": "8828aec0d8f152bd2059fb566ec73e6b", "has_been_anonymized": false, "edited": false, "author_is_moderator": false, "from_request_user": null, "votable": true, "date": "04/24/2008 08:10 AM", "approved": true, "num_replies": 0, "is_first_child": false, "email": "", "parent_post_id": null, "depth": 0, "points": 0, "author_is_creator": false, "is_realtime": false}, "5487453": {"up_voted": false, "ip": "", "has_replies": false, "message": "As noted in a recent article in Inside Knowledge Magazine, the number of companies that have implemented an internal prediction market is modest (lower bound was in the 30s as of 2006, although growing rapidly).  Feedback from companies utilizing prediction markets has identified critical deployment considerations, including trader knowledge, question/security design, and trader participation however the limited trials and low adoption rate of prediction markets indicates that resistance to their use pre-dates these deployment considerations.  <br><br>Tom Davenport, a Professor as Babson College, has identified traditional hierarchical organizations as a major obstacle to the use of prediction markets (as well as trader participation once deployed).  At BitInsight (<a href=\"http://www.bitinsight.com\" rel=\"nofollow\">www.bitinsight.com</a>), a consulting firm utilizing prediction markets as part of a decision support service, our experience would concur with this organizational resistance.  The resistance ranges from disbelief in the process, concerns about data leakage, concerns about the impact on current business processes, and concerns that the process will \u00c2\u201cundermine management\u00c2\u201d (to use the words of Microsoft in their presentation on their prediction market, PredictionPoint at the recent Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets).<br><br>By definition prediction markets are highly visible and if not carefully managed can be controversial, note the furor over DARPA\u00c2\u2019s terrorism futures market.  This visibility adds to the personal risk from failure and precludes \u00c2\u201cskunk work\u00c2\u201d executions in most cases.  The (ideally for many questions) cross organizational nature of the trading pool also adds organizational obstacles to market introduction.  <br><br>Prediction markets are the data mining tool to access the unstructured data stored in the enterprise\u00c2\u2019s distributed human capital (broadly defined).  It provides another source of data to be considered and leveraged; it does not, per se, make or even recommend any decisions to the corporation.   Defining the tool as such may make it more palatable to senior management whose buy-in and support are absolutely critical to successful trial and on-going incorporation of this technique within the enterprise\u00c2\u2019s business processes.", "is_last_child": false, "can_reply": true, "down_voted": false, "real_date": "2008-04-24_17:36:54", "killed": false, "user_key": "8cb758c14bd613bb219b88af2bc58f1f", "has_been_anonymized": false, "edited": false, "author_is_moderator": false, "from_request_user": null, "votable": true, "date": "04/24/2008 04:36 PM", "approved": true, "num_replies": 0, "is_first_child": false, "email": "", "parent_post_id": null, "depth": 0, "points": 0, "author_is_creator": false, "is_realtime": false}, "5487454": {"up_voted": false, "ip": "", "has_replies": false, "message": "Hi Professor - I have hit many roadblocks at my company, which actually you and I spoke about a few months ago.  Here's an overview of what I have encountered, in no particular order...<br><br>1) The myriad usage scenarios within an enterprise actually makes it harder to get the investment necessary to try prediction markets.  Why?  There is reluctance to take the risk yourself when there are benefits for the enterprise as a whole.  In other words, if it has that much potential, someone higher up the food chain should fund it.  This isn't merely a funding issue, however.  It's also a measurement issue.  Very few people are given a target metric for anything that doesn't fit neatly into the balance sheet, with managing quarterly expenses at (or near) the top of the list.  Naturally this leads to the opinion that if it's not being measured, it's not a priority.  We acknowledge this needs to change, but gaining agreement on what those new metrics should be is a big hurdle unto itself.<br>My point here is that, at least initially, it likely would be easier to find a sponsor if the business case was more targeted, which is what I'm trying to do now.<br><br>2) Despite all the press regarding how accurate prediction markets are, there is a great deal of skepticism regarding their accuracy for our company, or where specifically they would be most accurate.  If we pilot the technology in the wrong area, or otherwise don't set up the markets properly, the whole thing could get the hook quickly.<br><br>3) The ROI is not immediate, nor is it necessarily quantifiable as part of the initial business case.      We can cite how terrible most companies are at forecasting or decision-making in various areas, but we really need our own 'forecasted vs. actuals' historical data as a starting point.  Gathering that data from various business units is quite a chore to say the least.  We also need to run traditional methodologies and prediction markets concurrently to see how the results match up.<br><br>4) Despite the ROI extending beyond forecast accuracy to areas such as social networking, knowledge management and information flow, these benefits are less tangible.  I believe this will change over time, but most of the companies that have even deployed social software still are not doing real social network analysis...they're just trying to increase collaboration and team productivity.  Their ability to gain insight from the underlying data is far down the road, when they'll wake up one morning and realize that Enterprise 2.0 and Business Intelligence have converged (with ROI more readily apparent). <br>              <br>5) Social software adoption is already an issue, so there is concern regarding the participation level necessary to make the markets as accurate as possible.  Aside from the usual inhibitors to the adoption of new tools, the concepts of online reputation, digital identity, virtual currency and overall openness are novel to most employees.  There is reluctance to contribute in any form, via any medium, without maintaining anonymity.<br><br>6) Assuming the CIO and/or IT Dept makes all funding decisions for internal technology deployments, prediction markets would have to show greater business value than the approved/funded projects currently in plan.  So this gets back to the ROI issue (and points to the potential scenario of using prediction markets as part of that same IT funding/planning process).<br><br>7) Traditional methodologies for forecasting and decision-making are well within the comfort zone of most executives.  Even when they are willing to try other methods, those experiments are very controlled and merely supplement the formal methodology.  It is believed that instinct plays factor as well, but not just anyone's instinct (that's crazy talk).<br>Also, there is limited quantitative data on prediction market accuracy for longer term events.  So any businesses which try to produce mid-term to long-term forecasts would take a higher risk, have to compensate for market liquidity issues, etc.  Still a worthwhile exercise, however, in my opinion. <br><br>8) Prediction market results which conflict with or undermine project status reporting, for example, would potentially give managers and executives less decision-making power and less credibility.  If managers administered the market themselves, and made the necessary adjustments early enough, I think this concern would be mitigated.  Today, however, self-preservation is a big factor, often at the expense of the larger organization...and credibility could go out the window anyway.      <br>    <br>9) If the enterprise happens to be an E2.0 software vendor (\"I have this 'friend'...\") then there is the build vs. buy vs. partner issue, strategic fit, line-of-business ownership, go-to-market strategy, etc. <br><br>Despite these and other obstacles (like that pesky day job), I'm continuing to promote prediction markets all over the corporation, and have built up quite a bit of interest.  I'm not stopping until I find an executive sponsor or receive a rational explanation as to why we will not pursue the topic further.  <br><br>Frankly, I don't think a rational explanation exists.  Then again, corporate decisions aren't always rational, which brings us back full circle.    <br><br>Happy to discuss further if you'd like...<br><br>BP<br><br>(Go Sox!)", "is_last_child": false, "can_reply": true, "down_voted": false, "real_date": "2008-04-21_17:08:05", "killed": false, "user_key": "64fef4faaec2e4c971aed4fdc113f5a4", "has_been_anonymized": false, "edited": false, "author_is_moderator": false, "from_request_user": null, "votable": true, "date": "04/21/2008 04:08 PM", "approved": true, "num_replies": 0, "is_first_child": false, "email": "", "parent_post_id": null, "depth": 0, "points": 0, "author_is_creator": false, "is_realtime": false}, "5487455": {"up_voted": false, "ip": "", "has_replies": false, "message": "I have come to conclusion that availability and quality of management tools greatly exceed ability of corporate managers to use them productively. Many corporate executives, I have worked with, are much more comfortable with conceptual reasoning and analysis of historic data, than use quantitative methods for predicting future outcome of their decisions. Perhaps it has something to do with a fear of accountability, but they seem to treat forecasting as a matter of \"art\" rather than \"science\".", "is_last_child": false, "can_reply": true, "down_voted": false, "real_date": "2008-04-21_03:03:21", "killed": false, "user_key": "9b4110981bf032eb7860426efe4c546f", "has_been_anonymized": false, "edited": false, "author_is_moderator": false, "from_request_user": null, "votable": true, "date": "04/21/2008 02:03 AM", "approved": true, "num_replies": 0, "is_first_child": false, "email": "", "parent_post_id": null, "depth": 0, "points": 0, "author_is_creator": false, "is_realtime": false}}, "integration": {"receiver_url": null, "theme": 1, "reply_position": false, "disqus_logo": false}, "timer": {"timer_url": "http://localhost:8005", "thread_id": "10392594", "user_id": "anonymous", "forum_id": "78088", "hash": -4112726118731313318}, "thread": {"days_alive": 0, "slug": "a_case_for_prediction_markets", "paginate": false, "num_pages": 1, "num_posts": 13, "per_page": 0, "total_posts": 0, "realtime_paused": true, "id": 10392594, "queued": false}, "reactions_limit": 10, "context": {"show_reply": true, "use_fb_connect": false, "forum_facebook_key": "", "use_yahoo": false, "subscribed": false, "use_twitter_signin": true, "use_openid": true, "realtime_speed": 5000}, "reactions_start": 0, "settings": {"debug": false, "disqus_url": "http://disqus.com", "media_url": "http://media.disqus.com"}, "media_url": "http://media.disqus.com"};
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	this.curPageId = 'dsq-comments';

	this.frames = {};
};

var disqus_popup_reference = null;

if(typeof DsqLocal == 'undefined') {
	DsqLocal = {};
}



/**
 * Dsq.Strings: UI strings
 */
Dsq.Strings = new function() {
	this.ADD_NEW_COMMENT = "Add New Comment";
	this.LOG_INTO_DISQUS = "Log into DISQUS";
	this.USE_MEDIA = "Use Media";
	this.LOGOUT = "Logout";
	this.SHARING_OPTIONS = "Sharing options";
	this.SHARE_ON = "Share on";
	this.TWEET_THIS_COMMENT = "Tweet this comment";
	this.SHARE_ON_NEWSFEED = "Share on news feed";
	this.SEND_UPDATE_TO_YAHOO = "Send update to Yahoo!";
	this.REBLOG_ON = "Reblog on";
	this.CONFIGURE_OPTIONS = "Configure options";
	this.POST_AS = "Post as";
	this.SORT_BY = "Sort by";
	this.SUBSCRIBE_BY_EMAIL = "Subscribe by email";
	this.SUBSCRIBE_BY_RSS = "Subscribe by RSS";
	this.POPULAR_NOW = "Popular now";
	this.BEST_RATING = "Best Rating";
	this.NEWEST_FIRST = "Newest first";
	this.OLDEST_FIRST = "Oldest first";
	this.HIGHLIGHTED = "Highlighted";
	this.UNSUBSCRIBE = "Unsubscribe";
	this.REQUIRED = "Required";
	this.OPTIONAL = "Optional";
	this.YOU_ARE_COMMENTING_AS_A = "You are commenting as a";
	this.LOGIN_BELOW = "Login below";
	this.PLEASE_LOGIN_BELOW_TO_COMMENT = "Please login below to comment.";
	this.SUBSCRIBE_TO_ALL_COMMENTS_BY_EMAIL = "Subscribe to all comments by email";
	this.DO_NOT_SUBSCRIBE_TO_COMMENTS = "Do not subscribe to comments";
	this.REALTIME_UPDATING_IS = "Real-time updating is";
	this.ENABLED = "enabled";
	this.PAUSED = "paused";
	this.PAUSE = "Pause";
	this.RESUME = "Resume";
	this.SHOW = "Show";
	this.JUST_NOW = "Just now";
	this.REPLY = "Reply";
	this.EDIT = "Edit";
	this.FLAG = "Flag";
	this.MODERATE = "Moderate";
	this.CANCEL = "Cancel";
	this.REPLYING_TO = "Replying to";
	this.REPORT_MISSING_REACTIONS = "Report missing reactions";
	this.POST_A_COMMENT = "Post a comment";
	this.FLAG_INAPPROPRIATE_COMMENT = "Flag inappropriate comment";
	this.FLAGGED = "Flagged";
	this.NO = "No";
	this.YES = "Yes";
	this.NEVER_MIND = "Never mind";
	this.ARE_YOU_SURE_YOU_WOULD_LIKE_TO_REPORT_THIS_COMMENT_TO_A_MODERATOR = "Are you sure you would like to report this comment to a moderator";
	this.THIS_WILL_FLAG_COMMENTS_FOR_MODERATORS_TO_TAKE_ACTION = "This will flag comments for moderators to take action";
	this.TO_RATE_PLEASE_LOG_IN = "To rate, please log in";
	this.JUST_A_MOMENT = "Just a moment...";
	this.GUEST = "Guest";
	this.NAME = "Name";
	this.EMAIL = "Email";
  this.WEBSITE = "Website";
  this.SETTINGS = "Settings";
  this.MODERATOR_OPTIONS = "Moderator options: ";
};
// Dsq.Strings

/**
 * Dsq.FmtStrings: functions that return interpolated UI strings
 */
Dsq.FmtStrings = new function() {
	// Seems we have to use named interpolation for Django to translate. Investigate more.
	this.LOGGED_IN_AS = function(username) {
		return Dsq.Utils.interpolate('Logged in as %(username)s', {username:username});
	};

	this.LOGOUT_FROM = function(disqus) {
		return Dsq.Utils.interpolate('Logout from %(disqus)s', {disqus:disqus});
	};

	this.SHOWING_COMMENTS_FULL = function(total, num) {
		if (num === 1) {
			return Dsq.Utils.interpolate("Showing <span id='dsq-num-posts'>%(num)s</span> of <span id='dsq-total-posts'>%(total)s</span> comment", {num:num, total:total});
		} else {
			return Dsq.Utils.interpolate("Showing <span id='dsq-num-posts'>%(num)s</span> of <span id='dsq-total-posts'>%(total)s</span> comments", {num:num, total:total});
		}
	};

	this.SHOWING_COMMENTS_WITHOUT_PAGINATION = function(num) {
		if (num === 1) {
			return Dsq.Utils.interpolate("Showing <span id='dsq-num-posts'>%(num)s</span> comment", {num:num});
		} else {
			return Dsq.Utils.interpolate("Showing <span id='dsq-num-posts'>%(num)s</span> comments", {num:num});
		}
	};

	this.NUMBER_OF_COMMENTS = function(num) {
		return Dsq.Utils.interpolate(
			(num == 1
				? '%(num)s comment'
				: '%(num)s comments'
			), {num:num});
	};

	this.NUMBER_OF_LIKES = function(num) {
		return Dsq.Utils.interpolate(
			(num == 1
				? '%(num)s like'
				: '%(num)s likes'
			), {num:num});
	};

	this.NUMBER_OF_POINTS = function(num) {
		return Dsq.Utils.interpolate(
			(num == 1
				? '%(num)s point'
				: '%(num)s points'
			), {num:num});
	};
};
// Dsq.FmtStrings





Dsq.CSRF_TOKEN = '21bc467119200cb06806902fa8e2f5b0';
Dsq.COMMENTS_RE = /(<li.*?id="?dsq-comment-(\d+)"?.*?>)((?:.|\s)*?)(<\/li>)/gim;
Dsq.POST_RE = /(<div.*?id="?dsq-comment-header-(\d+)"?.*?>)((?:.|\s)*?)(<\/div>)\s*(<div.*?class="?dsq-comment-body"?.*?>)((?:.|\s)*)(<\/div>)/gim;
Dsq.POST_BODY_RE = /\s*(<div.*?id="?dsq-comment-message-(\d+)"?.*?>)((?:.|\s)*)(<\/div>)/gim;
// HACK: Safari ends with "-->" while other browsers end with "--&gt;" as expected.
Dsq.MEDIA_POST_RE = /&lt;!--\[(.*?)\]--(?:>|&gt;)/gim;



// TODO: It might be faster to use string methods to find all <li (...) </li> blocks and pass to Dsq.PostHandler manually.
Dsq.CommentsHandler = function(str, head, post_id, content, tail, offset, s) {
	var prepend_post = Dsq.Templates.prependPost(post_id);
	var append_post = Dsq.Templates.appendPost(post_id);

	content = content.replace(Dsq.POST_RE, Dsq.PostHandler);
	Dsq.Templates.postLoopCounter++;
	head = Dsq.Templates.Filters.commentContainer(post_id, head);
	return prepend_post + head + content + tail + append_post;
};

Dsq.PostHandler = function(str, h_head, post_id, h_content, h_tail, b_head, b_content, b_tail, offset, s) {
	var prepend_header = Dsq.Templates.postPrependHeader(post_id);
	var append_header = Dsq.Templates.postAppendHeader(post_id);
	var prepend_body = Dsq.Templates.preBody(post_id);
	var append_body = Dsq.Templates.postBody(post_id);
	var append_footer = Dsq.Templates.postFooter(post_id);

	b_content = b_content.replace(Dsq.POST_BODY_RE, Dsq.PostBodyHandler);
	return h_head + prepend_header + h_content + append_header + h_tail + b_head + prepend_body + b_content + append_body + b_tail + append_footer;
};

Dsq.PostBodyHandler = function(str, head, post_id, content, tail, offset, s) {
	content = Dsq.Templates.Filters.commentContent(post_id, content);
	return head + content + tail;
};

Dsq.MediaPostHandler = function(str, args, offset, s) {
	args = args.split(' ');
	if(args[0] == 'seesmic') {
		return '<br />' + Dsq.Templates.mediaSeesmic(args[1], args[2]);
	}
	return '';
};


/**
 * Shorcuts
 */
Dsq.$ = function(element) { return document.getElementById(element); };
Dsq.$b = document.body || document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0];


/**
 * Dsq.Debug: Logging functions.
 */

Dsq.Debug = new function() {this.log=function(s){};this.profile=function(f){if(typeof f == 'function')return f();else return eval(f);};};


/**
 * Dsq.Urls: URL paths
 */
Dsq.Urls = new function() {
	this.LOGIN = '/profile/login/';
	this.LOGOUT = '/logout/';
	this.REPLY = 'http://disqus.com/forums/andrewmcafee/a_case_for_prediction_markets/reply.html';
	this.REQUEST_USER_PROFILE = '/AnonymousUser/';
	this.REQUEST_USER_AVATAR = 'http://media.disqus.com/images/noavatar92.png';
};
// Dsq.Urls

/**
 * Dsq.Validators: Validation for form fields
 */
Dsq.Validators = new function() {
	this.VALID_EMAIL_RE = /^[a-z0-9\-\_\+]+(\.[a-z0-9\-\_\+]+)*\@(([a-z0-9\-\_\+]+(\.[a-z0-9\-\_\+]+)*)+\.[a-z]{2,}|([0-9]+\.){3}[0-9]+)$/i;
	this.name = function(name) {
		var error = false;

		if(typeof Dsq.Templates.placeholder !== 'undefined' &&
		   name == Dsq.Templates.placeholder.name) {
			error = true;
		}
		if(name.length <= 1) {
			error = true;
		}

		if(error) {
			return "Please enter a name to comment.";
		} else {
			return true;
		}
	};
	this.email = function(addr) {
		if(Dsq.Validators.VALID_EMAIL_RE.test(addr)) {
			return true;
		} else {
			return "Please enter a valid email to comment.";
		}
	};
	this.url = function(addr) {
		if(!addr || addr.indexOf('.') != -1) {
			return true;
		} else {
			return "Please check your website URL (this field is optional).";
		}
	};

	this.validate = function(bulk_validation, failure_callback) {
		failure_callback = failure_callback || function(e){ alert(e); };

		for(var i = 0; i < bulk_validation.length; i++) {
			v = bulk_validation[i];
			ret = v.validator(v.value);
			if(ret !== true) {
				failure_callback(ret);
				return false;
			}
		}
		return true;
	};
};

/**
 * Dsq.Utils: Generic utility functions.
 */
Dsq.Utils = new function() {
	this.ie = /msie/i.test(navigator.userAgent) && !/opera/i.test(navigator.userAgent);
	this.ie7 = (document.all && !window.opera && window.XMLHttpRequest) ? true : false;
	this.ie6 = (!window.XMLHttpRequest) ? true: false;
	this.webkit = navigator.userAgent.indexOf('AppleWebKit/') >= 0;
	this.gebiFromElementCollectionCache = {};
	this._styleSheet = null;

	this.gebiFromElement = function(el, id, tag) {
		// This only method only helps IE.
		if(!this.ie) {
			return Dsq.$(id);
		} else {
			var cacheKey = el.id + '-' + tag;
			tag = tag || 'div';
			if(typeof this.gebiFromElementCollectionCache[cacheKey] != 'undefined') {
				collection = this.gebiFromElementCollectionCache[cacheKey];
			} else {
				collection = el.getElementsByTagName(tag);
				this.gebiFromElementCollectionCache[cacheKey] = collection;
			}

			for(var i = 0; i < collection.length; i++) {
				if(collection[i].id == id) {
					return collection[i];
				}
			}
			return null;
		}
	};

	this.execOnReady = function(func) {
		var node = document.createElement('document:ready');
		try {
			node.doScroll('left');
			func();
			node = null;
		} catch(err) {
			setTimeout(function() { Dsq.Utils.execOnReady(func); }, 10);
		}
	};


	// Courtesy of http://www.quirksmode.org/js/cookies.html
	this.createCookie = function(name,value,days) {
		if (days) {
			var date = new Date();
			date.setTime(date.getTime()+(days*24*60*60*1000));
			var expires = "; expires="+date.toGMTString();
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		else var expires = "";
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	};

	this.readCookie = function(name) {
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		for(var i=0;i < ca.length;i++) {
			var c = ca[i];
			while (c.charAt(0)==' ') c = c.substring(1,c.length);
			if (c.indexOf(nameEQ) == 0) return c.substring(nameEQ.length,c.length);
		}
		return null;
	};

	this.eraseCookie = function(name) {
		Dsq.Utils.createCookie(name,"",-1);
	};

	this.deleteNode = function(node) {
		if(node) {
			this.deleteChildren(node);
			if(typeof node.outerHTML != 'undefined') { node.outerHTML = ''; }
			else if(node.parentNode) { node.parentNode.removeChild(node); }
			delete node;
		}
	};

	this.deleteChildren = function(node) {
		if(node) {
			for(var x = node.childNodes.length-1; x >= 0; x--) {
				var childNode = node.childNodes[x];
				if(childNode.hasChildNodes()) { this.deleteChildren(childNode); }
				if(typeof childNode.outerHTML != 'undefined') { childNode.outerHTML = ''; }
				else node.removeChild(childNode);
				delete childNode;
			}
		}
	};

	this.findPos = function(obj) {
		var curleft = 0;
		var curtop = 0;
		if (obj.offsetParent) {
			do {
				curleft += obj.offsetLeft;
				curtop += obj.offsetTop;
			} while (obj = obj.offsetParent);
		}
		return [curleft,curtop];
	};

	this.getWindowSize = function() {
		var windowWidth = -1;
		var windowHeight = -1;

		if(typeof(window.innerWidth) == 'number') { //Non-IE
			windowWidth = window.innerWidth;
			windowHeight = window.innerHeight;
		} else if(document.documentElement) { // IE 6+ in 'standards compliant mode'
			windowWidth = document.documentElement.clientWidth || document.body.clientWidth;
			windowHeight = document.documentElement.clientHeight || document.body.clientHeight;
		}

		return [windowWidth, windowHeight];
	}

	this.getScrollPos = function() {
		var scrollWidth, scrollTop;

		if(document.documentElement && (document.documentElement.scrollTop || document.documentElement.scrollWidth)) {
			scrollWidth = document.documentElement.scrollWidth;
			// IE is weird here.  If no doctype is provided, document.body.scrollTop is 0,
			// otherwise document.documentElement.scrollTop is 0.
			scrollTop = document.documentElement.scrollTop || document.body.scrollTop;
		} else if(document.body.scrollTop && document.body.scrollWidth) {
			scrollWidth = document.body.scrollWidth;
			scrollTop = document.body.scrollTop;
		}

		return [scrollWidth, scrollTop];
	}

	this.addEventListener = function(instance, eventName, listener) {
		var listenerFn = listener;
		if (instance.addEventListener) {
			instance.addEventListener(eventName, listenerFn, false);
		} else if (instance.attachEvent) {
			listenerFn = function() {
				listener(window.event);
			};
			instance.attachEvent("on" + eventName, listenerFn);
		} else {
			throw new Error("Event registration not supported");
		}
		return {
			instance: instance,
			name: eventName,
			listener: listenerFn
		};
	};

	this.removeEventListener = function(event) {
		var instance = event.instance;
		if (instance.removeEventListener) {
			instance.removeEventListener(event.name, event.listener, false);
		} else if (instance.detachEvent) {
			instance.detachEvent("on" + event.name, event.listener);
		}
	};

	this.fixIframesIE = function(id) {
		var disqusThread = Dsq.$(disqus_container_id);
		var iframes = disqusThread.getElementsByTagName('iframe');

		if(id) {
			var container = Dsq.$(id);
		} else {
			var container = Dsq.$('dsq-content');
		}

		for(i = 0; i < iframes.length; i++) {
			if (container) {
				iframes[i].style.width = container.offsetWidth;
			}
		}
	};

	this.getElementsByClassName = function(oElm, strTagName, strClassName) {
	/* Credit: Jonathan Snook [http://www.snook.ca/jonathan], Robert Nyman [http://www.robertnyman.com] */
		var arrElements = (strTagName == "*" && oElm.all)? oElm.all : oElm.getElementsByTagName(strTagName);
		var arrReturnElements = new Array();
		strClassName = strClassName.replace(/\-/g, "\\-");
		var oRegExp = new RegExp("(^|\\s)" + strClassName + "(\\s|$)");
		var oElement;
		for(var i = 0; i < arrElements.length; i++) {
			oElement = arrElements[i];
			if(oRegExp.test(oElement.className)) {
				arrReturnElements.push(oElement);
			}
		}
		return (arrReturnElements);
	};

	this.postToUrl = function(url, post_data, opt_redirect) {
		var form = document.createElement('form');
		var iframe_container = document.createElement('div');
		var id = 'dsq-temp-iframe-' + (new Date()).getTime();

		form.method = 'POST';
		form.action = url;
		if (!opt_redirect) {
			form.target = id;
		}
		iframe_container.innerHTML = '<iframe style="display:none" name="' + id + '" id="' + id + '"></iframe>';

		for(var key in post_data) {
			if(post_data.hasOwnProperty(key)) {
				var input = document.createElement('input');
				input.name = key;
				input.type = 'hidden';
				input.value = post_data[key];

				form.appendChild(input);
			}
		}

		Dsq.$b.appendChild(iframe_container);
		Dsq.$b.appendChild(form);
		form.submit();
	};

	// Strips integer id from id of element in the form ('some-id-###')
	this.extractId = function(e) {
		var chunks = e.id.split('-');
		if(chunks.length <= 1) {
			return 0;
		} else {
			return parseInt(chunks[chunks.length-1]);
		}
	};

	this.getStyle = function(el, styleProp) {
		if(el.currentStyle) {
			var y = el.currentStyle[styleProp];
		} else if(window.getComputedStyle) {
			var y = document.defaultView.getComputedStyle(el, null).getPropertyValue(styleProp);
		}

		if(y == 'transparent' || y == '') {
			this.getStyle(el.parentNode, styleProp);
		} else {
			return y;
		}
	};

	this.execScript = function(url, append_qs, container) {
		var script = document.createElement('script');
		append_qs = typeof append_qs == 'undefined' ? true : append_qs;
		container = container || Dsq.container;

		if(append_qs) {
			var j = (url.indexOf('?') >= 0) ? '&' : '?';
			url += j + (new Date()).getTime();
		}
		script.type = 'text/javascript';
		script.charset = 'UTF-8';
		script.src = url;
		container.appendChild(script);
		return script;
	};

	this.pluralize = function(num, singular, plural) {
		return (num != 1) ? plural || 's' : singular || '';
	};

	this.getRequestParams = function(queryString /* optional */) {
		var pairs, tuple;
		var params = {};

		queryString = queryString || window.location.search.substring(1);
		pairs = queryString.split('&');

		for (var i = 0, pair; pair = pairs[i]; i++) {
			tuple = pair.split('=');
			params[tuple[0]] = (tuple[1] || true);
		}

		return params;
	};

	this.addCssRule = function(selector, styleText, index) {
		var stylesheet;
		index = index || 0;

		if(!this._styleSheet) {
			var styleEl = document.createElement('style');
			document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(styleEl);
			this._styleSheet = styleEl.sheet;
			if(!this._styleSheet) {
				// IE does not like our newly created stylesheet.
				this._styleSheet = document.styleSheets[document.styleSheets.length-1];
			}
		}
		stylesheet = this._styleSheet;

		if(stylesheet.insertRule) {
			var ruleText = selector + ' { ' + styleText + ' }';
			if(index == -1) {
				index = stylesheet.cssRules.length;
			}
			stylesheet.insertRule(ruleText, index);
		} else if(stylesheet.addRule) {
			stylesheet.addRule(selector, styleText, index);
		}
	};

	this.forEachIn = function(obj, callback) {
		for(var key in obj) {
			if(obj.hasOwnProperty(key)) {
				callback(key, obj[key]);
			}
		}
	};

	this._interpolateGlobalContext = {
		// values that get used a lot and are global to the request
		'profile_url': Dsq.Urls.REQUEST_USER_PROFILE,

		'disqus_url': Dsq.jsonData.settings.disqus_url,
		'media_url': Dsq.jsonData.settings.media_url,
		'request_username': Dsq.jsonData.request.username,
		'request_display_username': Dsq.jsonData.request.display_username,
		'forum_name': Dsq.jsonData.forum.name
	};

	this.renderFromContextStack = function(key, contexts) {
		// Returns the first instance of `key` in the array of objects `contexts` or else ''
		for (var i=0; i<contexts.length; i++) {
			if (contexts[i][key] !== undefined) {
				return String(contexts[i][key]);
			}
		}
		throw new Error('key ' + key + ' not found in context');
	};

	var that = this;
	this.interpolate = function(fmt, opt_localContext) {
		// Interpolate `fmt` named-format string with an assumed global context.
		// Based on `interpolate` in django.views.i18n
		var contextStack = [opt_localContext || {}, that._interpolateGlobalContext];
		return fmt.replace(/%\(\w+\)s/g, function(match){
			return that.renderFromContextStack(match.slice(2,-2), contextStack);
		});
	};

	this.stripTags = function(s) {
		// Removes HTML tags from `s`
		return s.replace(/(<([^>]+)>)/g,"");

	};

	this.assert = function(b) {
		if (!b) {
			throw new Error('Assertion error.');
		}
	};

};
// Dsq.Utils

/**
 * Dsq.Popup: Popup helper functions.
 */
Dsq.Popup = new function() {
	this.timeHide = new Array();
	this.timeShow = new Array();
	this.activePopup = {};
	this.profileCache = {};
	this.statusCache = {};

	this.showTimer = function(post_id) {
		// clear the hide timer
		clearTimeout(this.timeHide[post_id]);

		// start the timer
		if(!Dsq.Popup.profileIsOn && !Dsq.Thread.adminIsOn) {
			this.timeShow[post_id] = setTimeout("Dsq.Popup.popProfile(\"" + post_id + "\")", 400);
		}
	};

	this.hideTimer = function(post_id) {
		// clear the show timer
		clearTimeout(this.timeShow[post_id]);
	};

	this.updateProfile = function(username) {
		// Callback from /embed/profile.js
		if (this.statusCache[username]) {
			var statusEl = Dsq.$('dsq-profile-status-' + username);
			statusEl.innerHTML = this.statusCache[username];
			statusEl.style.display = 'block';
		}

		if (this.profileCache[username]) {
			var _cache = this.profileCache[username];

			var _genhtml = function(text) { return '<span><big>' + text + '</big></span>'; };
			var _no_comments = _genhtml(Dsq.FmtStrings.NUMBER_OF_COMMENTS(_cache.comments_count));
			var _no_likes = _genhtml(Dsq.FmtStrings.NUMBER_OF_LIKES(_cache.likes_count));
			var _no_points = _genhtml(Dsq.FmtStrings.NUMBER_OF_POINTS(_cache.points));

			var statsEl = Dsq.$('dsq-popup-profile-user-stats-' + username);
			statsEl.innerHTML = '';

			if (Dsq.jsonData.users[username].registered) {
				statsEl.innerHTML = _no_comments + _no_likes;
			}
			statsEl.innerHTML += _no_points;

			var activeSites = '';
			for (var i = 0; i < _cache.active_sites.length; i++) {
				var site = _cache.active_sites[i];
				activeSites += '<li><a href="' + site.url + '"> \
					<img src="' + site.favicon + '"/ width="16" height="16"/></a>\
					<a href="' + site.url + '">' + site.name + '</a></li>';
			}
			if (activeSites !== '') {
				Dsq.$('dsq-popup-profile-active-sites-' + username).innerHTML = activeSites;
			} else {
				Dsq.$('dsq-popup-profile-active-sites-' + username).innerHTML = 'This site.';
			}

			var moderatedSites = '';
			for (var i = 0; i < _cache.moderated_sites.length; i++) {
				var site = _cache.moderated_sites[i];
				moderatedSites += '<li><a href="' + site.url + '"> \
					<img src="' + site.favicon + '"/ width="16" height="16"/></a>\
					<a href="' + site.url + '">' + site.name + '</a></li>';
			}
			if (moderatedSites !== '') {
				Dsq.$('dsq-popup-profile-moderated-' + username).innerHTML = moderatedSites;
			} else {
				Dsq.$('dsq-popup-profile-moderated-wrapper-' + username).innerHTML = '';
			}
		}

		// Reposition popup after full HTML is rendered
		if(Dsq.Popup.activePopup && Dsq.Popup.activePopup.el) {
			Dsq.Popup.initPopup(Dsq.Popup.activePopup.el, Dsq.Popup.activePopup.id, Dsq.Popup.activePopup.type);
		}

	};

	this.showCookieMsgs = function() {
		var title = '';
		var message = '';
		var numAlerts = 0;

		Dsq.Utils.forEachIn(Dsq.jsonData.cookie_messages, function(k, v) {
			if (!v) return;

			switch(k) {
				// Cookie: Twitter
				case 'post_twitter':
					if (v === 'error') {
						title = 'Twitter Error!';
						message += '<li id="dsq-msg-twitter-error">Oops, we couldn\'t tweet this comment. Please check your <a href="http://disqus.com/account/services">account settings</a>.</li>';
					} else {
						var _msg = v.split(':');
						title = 'Tweeted!';
						message += '<li id="dsq-msg-twitter-success">Your comment was successfully tweeted. <a href="http://twitter.com/' + _msg[0] + '/status/' + _msg[1] + '">Click here to view the tweet</a>.</li>';
					}
					break;
				// Cookie: Unapproved Post
				case 'post_not_approved':
					title = 'Comment awaiting approval by a moderator';
					message += '<li id="dsq-msg-post-not-approved">Your comment must be approved by a moderator before appearing here.</li>';
					break;
				// Cookie: Profile Found
				case 'post_has_profile':
					title = 'Use your existing commenter profile';
					message += '<li id="dsq-msg-post-has-profile">You have just posted your commment as a <span class="dsq-badge-guest">Guest</span>, but you may already have a <span class="logo-disqus">Disqus</span> Profile.<br /><br /><a href="http://disqus.com/claim">Log in and claim this comment!</a></li>';
					break;
				case 'user_created':
					var _data = v.split(':');
					title = 'Profile created!';
					message += '<li id="dsq-msg-user-created">You have just created a <span class="logo-disqus">Disqus</span> Profile, the best way to claim, manage, and track your comments all over the web. \
					<br /><br />A confirmation is being sent to <strong>' + _data[1] + '</strong>. Please check for this email in order to verify your profile. \
					<ul class="dsq-list-tick"> \
						<li>Your username is <strong>' + _data[0] +'</strong>. <a href="http://disqus.com/people/' + _data[0] + '/" target="_blank">Click here to view your public profile</a>.</li> \
						<li>Be sure to set your profile picture, as well as connect your <span class="dsq-badge-facebook">Facebook</span> and <span class="dsq-badge-twitter">Twitter</span> accounts. <a href="http://disqus.com/account/" target="_blank">Click here for account settings</a>.</li> \
					</ul> \
					</li>'
					break;
				default:
					break;
			}
			numAlerts++;
		});

		if(numAlerts > 1) {
			message = '<ul class="dsq-list-bluebullet">' + message;
			message += '</ul>';
			title = 'Thanks for posting!';
		}
		if(numAlerts > 0) {
			if(typeof(disqus_cookie_msgs) == 'function') {
				disqus_cookie_msgs(message, title);
			} else {
				Dsq.Popup.popModal(message, title);
			}
		}
	};

	this.helpBadges = function(post_id) {
		var html = ' \
			<ul class="dsq-popup-help"> \
				<li><span class="dsq-badge dsq-badge-verified">Verified</span> has a <span class="logo-disqus">Disqus</span> Profile with a confirmed email address.</li> \
				<li><span class="dsq-badge dsq-badge-registered">Registered</span> has a <span class="logo-disqus">Disqus</span> Profile, but has not yet confirmed his or her email address.</li> \
				<li><span class="dsq-badge dsq-badge-guest">Guest</span> is not logged in with any account and has not claimed his or her comments.</li> \
				<li class="dsq-help-otheraccts">Other accounts</li> \
				<li><span class="dsq-badge dsq-badge-facebook">Facebook</span> is using his or her Facebook profile via Facebook Connect.</li> \
				<li><span class="dsq-badge dsq-badge-twitter">Twitter</span> is using his or her Twitter profile via Twitter Sign-in.</li> \
				<li><span class="dsq-badge dsq-badge-openid">OpenID</span> is using his or her OpenID.</li> \
			</ul> \
		';

		this.popModal(html, 'Help: Types of Commenters', post_id);
		return;
	};

	this.permalink = function(post_id) {
		var header = 'Link to this comment';
		var body = '<strong>You are anchored to</strong>:<br />' + document.location.protocol + '//' + document.location.host + document.location.pathname + document.location.search + '#comment-' + post_id;

		this.popModal(body, header, post_id);
	};

	this.login = function(header, body) {
		var h = header || 'Login or Register';
		var b = body || '';
		b += Dsq.Templates.frameLogin({id: 'dsq-popup-login'});
		b += '</iframe>'; // HACK: Sometimes there is something funky with the IFRAME SRC that causes no end tag
		this.popModal(b, h, null, true, 'dsq-popup-login');
	};

	this.blacklist = function(id) {
		var _meta = Dsq.jsonData.posts[id];
		var userData = Dsq.jsonData['users'][_meta.user_key];
		var title = 'Add to Blacklist';
		var message = ' \
		Adding this person to the blacklist will block him or her from commenting on this site. Check the following types that you would like to add to the blacklist:'
		+ (userData['registered'] ?
			'<div class="dsq-blacklist-option"> \
				<input id="dsq-blacklist-username" type="checkbox" checked> \
				<label for="dsq-blacklist-username"><strong>Username</strong>: ' + userData['username'] + '</label> \
			</div>'
			: '')
		+ (_meta.email ?
			'<div class="dsq-blacklist-option"> \
				<input id="dsq-blacklist-email" type="checkbox" checked> \
				<label for="dsq-blacklist-email"><strong>Email address</strong>: ' + _meta.email + '</label> \
			</div>'
			: '')
		+ '<div class="dsq-blacklist-option"> \
			<input id="dsq-blacklist-ip" type="checkbox" onclick="Dsq.$(\'dsq-blacklist-ip-warning\').style.display=\'block\'"> \
			<label for="dsq-blacklist-ip"><strong>IP address</strong>: ' + _meta.ip + '</label> \
		</div> \
		';

		message += ' \
			<p id="dsq-blacklist-ip-warning" style="display:none">	\
				Note: Blocking this person\'s IP address may also unintentionally prevent others, who share his/her IP address, from commenting on this site. \
				This may include people who are sharing the same computer, living in the same house, or using the same Internet provider. Only block an IP address as a last resort. \
			</p> \
		';

		message += ' \
			<p style="text-align:center"><button onclick="Dsq.Post.blockUser(' + id + '); this.disabled=true; this.innerHTML=\'Just one moment...\'">Add to Blacklist</button></p> \
		';

		Dsq.Popup.popModal(message, title);
	};

	this.remoteAccountSettings = function() {
		var body = '';
		// Set up IFrame.
		var params = {};
		var base_url = 'http://disqus.com/forums/andrewmcafee/_auth/embed/remote_settings/';
		var attributes = {id: 'dsq-popup-account-settings'};
		if (typeof disqus_frame_theme != 'undefined') {
			params['theme'] = disqus_frame_theme;
		}

		body = Dsq.Templates._frameGeneric(base_url, params, attributes);
		this.popModal(body, 'Account Settings', null, true, 'dsq-popup-account-settings');
	};

	this.popModal = function(message, title, post_id, use_listener, extra_classes) {
		var container = document.createElement('div');
		var header, body;

		Dsq.Popup._closePopup(null, true);

		if(typeof(title) == 'undefined') { title = ''; }
		if(typeof(use_listener) == 'undefined') { use_listener = true; }

		if(post_id) {
			container.id = 'dsq-popup-message-' + post_id;
		} else {
			container.id = 'dsq-popup-message';
		}

		header = title;
		body = message;

		container.innerHTML = Dsq.Templates.popupModal(header, body);
		Dsq.Popup.initPopup(container, post_id, 'message', extra_classes);
		if(use_listener) {
			Dsq.Popup.popupListener = Dsq.Utils.addEventListener(document, 'mouseup', Dsq.Popup._closePopup);
		}
	};

	this.popAlert = this.popModal;

	this.loading = function(post_id) {
		var title = Dsq.Strings.JUST_A_MOMENT;
		var body = '<div style="text-align:center; padding: 5px 0 10px 0"><img src="http://media.disqus.com/images/loading.gif" alt="" /></div>'
		Dsq.Popup.lightbox(body, title, post_id);
	};

	this.lightbox = function(message, title, post_id) {
		// Wraps Dsq.Popup.popModal

		var overlay = document.createElement('div');
		overlay.id = 'dsq-overlay';
		overlay.className = 'dsq-overlay';
		Dsq.$b.appendChild(overlay);
		
		Dsq.Popup.popModal(message, title, post_id, false, 'dsq-lightbox');
	};

	this.popProfile = function(post_id, userKey) {
		var post = Dsq.jsonData['posts'][post_id];
		if (post && post.has_been_anonymized) {
			Dsq.Popup.popModal('This message was anonymized by its previous owner.', 'Anonymized', post_id);
			return;
		}

		if(post_id) {
			userKey = Dsq.jsonData['posts'][post_id].user_key;	
		}
		var userData = Dsq.jsonData['users'][userKey];
		var elId = 'dsq-popup-profile-' + userKey;
		var container = document.createElement('div');

		if(this.activePopup.el) {
			this._closePopup(null, true);
			if(this.activePopup.linkClicked) {
				this.activePopup.linkClicked = false;
				return;
			}
		}

		container.id = elId;
		container.innerHTML = Dsq.Templates.popupProfile(userKey);

		this.initPopup(container, post_id, 'profile');
		this.popupListener = Dsq.Utils.addEventListener(document, 'mouseup', this._closePopup);

		if(!this.profileCache[userKey]) {
			Dsq.Utils.execScript('http://disqus.com/embed/profile.js'
				+ '?username=' + userKey
				+ '&anon=' + (userData['registered'] ? 0 : 1)
				+ '&f=' + Dsq.jsonData['request'].forum);
		} else {
			this.updateProfile(userKey);
		}
	};

	this._closePopup = function(e, force) {
		var activePopup = Dsq.Popup.activePopup.el;
		var id = Dsq.Popup.activePopup.id;
		var link = 'dsq-avatar-' + id; // HACK: Specific to profile toggle target

		// HACK: This event should be gone if there is no active popup.
		if(!activePopup) {
			return;
		}
		if(force || !Dsq.Popup.isClicked(e, activePopup.id)) {
			// TODO: This is breaking iE?
			if(Dsq.Popup.popupListener) {
				Dsq.Utils.removeEventListener(Dsq.Popup.popupListener);
			}
			
			// Kill overlay
			var overlay = Dsq.$('dsq-overlay');
			if(overlay) { Dsq.Utils.deleteNode(overlay); }
			
			try {
				Dsq.Utils.deleteNode(activePopup);
			} catch(e) {
				// HACK: IE6 throws an error when using deleteNode() with a node containing a <table> in the html.
				activePopup.parentNode.removeChild(activePopup);
			}
			Dsq.Popup.activePopup = {};
		}

		if(!force && Dsq.Popup.isClicked(e, link)) {
 			Dsq.Popup.activePopup.linkClicked = true;
		}

	};

	this.initPopup = function(popup, post_id, type, extra_classes) {
		popup.className = 'dsq-popup dsq-popup-' + type + ' ' + (extra_classes ? extra_classes : '');
		if(Dsq.Utils.ie6 || Dsq.Utils.ie7) {
			// HACK: We can't modify the body before it's ready, so we need
			//       to use an IE-safe "DOMReady" workaround before loading
			//       our popup.
			Dsq.Utils.execOnReady(function() {Dsq.$b.appendChild(popup); });
		} else {
			Dsq.$b.appendChild(popup);
		}

		popup.style.display = 'block';

		var xPos = (Dsq.Utils.getWindowSize()[0] - popup.offsetWidth) / 2;
		var yPos = (Dsq.Utils.getWindowSize()[1] - popup.offsetHeight) / 2;

		if(Dsq.Utils.ie6) {
			yPos += Dsq.Utils.getScrollPos()[1];
		}

		popup.style.left = xPos + 'px';
		popup.style.top = yPos + 'px';

		Dsq.Popup.activePopup = {
			'el' : popup,
			'id' : post_id,
			'type': type,
			'linkClicked' : false
		};
	};

	this.isClicked = function(e, id) {
		var t = e.target || e.srcElement;
		while(t && t.parentNode) {
			if(t.id == id) {
				return true;
			}

			t = t.parentNode;
		}
		return false;
	};
};
// Dsq.Popup

/**
 * Dsq.Templates
 */
Dsq.Templates = new function() {
	/*
	 * Counter keeping track of the number of posts iterated over.
	 */
	this.postLoopCounter = 0;
	this.filters = {};
	this.addPostContainer = 'dsq-post-add';
	this.textareaContainer = 'dsq-post-add';

	this.registerTemplate = function(name, func) {
		this['$$_' + name] = func;

		if(typeof DsqLocal.Filters != 'undefined'
		&& typeof DsqLocal.Filters[name] == 'function') {
			// Push filters to this.filters to unify code.
			this.filters[name] = this.filters[name] || [];
			this.filters[name].push(DsqLocal.Filters[name]);
		}

		this[name] = function() {
			var ret;

			if(typeof DsqLocal.Templates != 'undefined'
			&& typeof DsqLocal.Templates[name] == 'function') {
				ret = DsqLocal.Templates[name].apply(this, arguments);
			}

			if(ret === undefined) {
				ret = this['$$_' + name].apply(this, arguments);
			}

			if(this.filters[name]) {
				var args = [ret];

				args.push.apply(args, arguments);
				for(var i = 0; i < this.filters[name].length; i++) {
					ret = this.filters[name][i].apply(this, args);
				}
			}

			return ret;
		};
	};

	this.registerFilter = function(name, func) {
		this.filters[name] = this.filters[name] || [];
		this.filters[name].push(func);
	};

	/**
	 * Dsq.Templates.Filters
	 */
	this.Filters = new function() {
		this.commentContainer = function(post_id, s) {
			var _meta = Dsq.jsonData.posts[post_id];
			var classes = [];
			if(Dsq.jsonData.request.page > 1) {
				classes.push('dsq-append');
			}

			//
			// Extra classes used for custom themes
			//

			if(_meta.depth) {
				classes.push('dsq-comment-child', 'dsq-depth-' + _meta.depth, 'dsq-parent-is-' + _meta.parent_post_id);
			}


			//

			if(_meta.author_is_creator) {
				// TODO: We need to deprecate the "special" class since it is not properly prefixed.
				classes.push('special', 'dsq-special');
			}
			if(_meta.author_is_moderator) {
				classes.push('dsq-moderator');
			}
			classes.push(['dsq-odd', 'dsq-even'][Dsq.Templates.postLoopCounter % 2]);

			s = s.substring(0, s.lastIndexOf('>'));
			return s + ' class="dsq-comment ' + classes.join(' ') + '" style="margin-left:' + _meta.depth*30 + 'px">';
		};

		this.commentContent = function(post_id, s) {
			var _meta = Dsq.jsonData.posts[post_id];
			if (_meta.killed) {
				return '<em>Comment removed.</em>';
			} else if (!_meta.approved) {
				return '<em>This comment was flagged for review.</em>';
			}

			s = s.replace(Dsq.MEDIA_POST_RE, Dsq.MediaPostHandler);
			return s;
		};
	};

	//
	// Thread
	//
	// TODO: These need to be stripped of all Django template tags.

	this.authPost = function() {
		if (!Dsq.jsonData.context.show_reply) {
			return '';
		}
		var result = [];
		result = result.concat([
				'<div id="dsq-auth"',
						Dsq.jsonData.integration.reply_position ? 'class="dsq-auth-bottom"' : '',
						'>',
					'<div class="dsq-by">',
						'<a href="http://disqus.com" target="_blank">',
							(Dsq.jsonData.integration.disqus_logo ?
								Dsq.Utils.interpolate('<img src="%(media_url)s/images/embed/by-disqus.png" alt="discussion by DISQUS">') :
								Dsq.Utils.interpolate('<img src="%(media_url)s/images/embed/dsq-button-120x19.png" alt="discussion by DISQUS">')
							),
						'</a>',
					'</div>',
					'<div class="dsq-auth-header">',
						'<h3 id="dsq-add-new-comment" class="dsq-h3-addcomment">',
								Dsq.Strings.ADD_NEW_COMMENT,
						'</h3>',
						'<div id="dsq-login">',
						(!Dsq.jsonData.request.is_authenticated && Dsq.jsonData.forum.allow_anon_post
								? '<p class="dsq-login-message" id="dsq-login-message">You are commenting as a <a class="dsq-help" title="Click for more information" href="#" onclick="Dsq.Popup.helpBadges(); return false">Guest</a>. You may select one to log into:</p>'
								: '')
		]);
		if (!Dsq.jsonData.request.is_authenticated) {
			result = result.concat([
							Dsq.Utils.interpolate(
								'<a id="dsq-login-toggle" href="%(disqus_url)s%(login_url)s?next=article:%(thread_id)s" onclick="Dsq.Popup.login(); return false"><img class="dsq-login-icon" src="%(media_url)s/images/dsq-profile-btn.png" title="%(log_into)s" alt="%(log_into)s"/></a>',
								{login_url: Dsq.Urls.LOGIN, thread_id: Dsq.jsonData.thread.id, log_into: Dsq.Strings.LOG_INTO_DISQUS}
								),
							'&nbsp; ',
							(Dsq.jsonData.context.use_fb_connect ?
								'<div id="dsq-fbc-login" onlogin="DisqusFbcParentController.onLogin()" size="medium" background="light" length="short" style="display:inline; margin-right:7px"></div>' :
								''
							),
							(Dsq.jsonData.context.use_twitter_signin ?
								Dsq.Utils.interpolate(
									'<div id="dsq-twitter-login" class="dsq-twitter-login" onclick="Dsq.Twitter.startTwitterConnect();" style="display:inline; cursor: pointer"><img src="%(media_url)s/images/twitter-signin-short.png" style="margin-right:7px" /></div>', {}) : ''),
							(Dsq.jsonData.context.use_openid ?
								Dsq.Utils.interpolate(
									'<div id="dsq-openid-login" class="dsq-openid-login" onclick="Dsq.OpenID.requestURL();" style="display:inline; cursor:pointer;"><img src="%(media_url)s/images/openid-login-button.png"/></div>', {}
								) : '')
			]);
		}
		result = result.concat([
						'</div>', // dsq-login
					'</div>', // dsq-auth-header
					'<div id="dsq-authenticated" class="dsq-authenticated" ',
						Dsq.jsonData.request.is_authenticated ? 'style="display:block"' : '',
						'>',
						'<div class="dsq-authenticated-pic">',
								Dsq.Utils.interpolate('<a href="%(url)s" title="%(request_display_username)s">' +
																			'<img class="dsq-post-avatar" src="%(avatar_url)s" alt="" /></a>',
																			{avatar_url: Dsq.Urls.REQUEST_USER_AVATAR,
																			url: (Dsq.jsonData.request.is_remote
																					 ? Dsq.jsonData.request.url
																					 : Dsq.jsonData.settings.disqus_url + Dsq.Urls.REQUEST_USER_PROFILE) }),
						'</div>',
						'<div class="dsq-authenticated-info">',
							'<ul>',
								'<li>',
									(Dsq.jsonData.request.is_remote
										? Dsq.FmtStrings.LOGGED_IN_AS(
												Dsq.Utils.interpolate('<a href="%(url)s" title="%(request_display_username)s">%(request_display_username)s</a>', {url:Dsq.jsonData.request.url})
										  )
										: Dsq.FmtStrings.LOGGED_IN_AS(
												Dsq.Utils.interpolate('<a href="%(disqus_url)s%(profile_url)s" title="%(request_display_username)s">%(request_display_username)s</a>')
											)
									),
								'</li>',
								'<li class="logout">',
									(!Dsq.jsonData.request.is_remote
										? Dsq.Utils.interpolate('<img class="dsq-login-icon" src="%(media_url)s/images/dsqicon12.png" alt="%(logged_in_as)s"/>&nbsp',
											{logged_in_as: Dsq.FmtStrings.LOGGED_IN_AS(Dsq.jsonData.request.display_username)})
										: ''),

									(!Dsq.jsonData.request.is_remote
										? Dsq.Utils.interpolate('<a href="%(disqus_url)s%(logout_url)s?ctkn=%(csrf_token)s" title="%(logout_from_disqus)s">',
											{logout_url: Dsq.Urls.LOGOUT, csrf_token: Dsq.CSRF_TOKEN, logout_from_disqus: Dsq.FmtStrings.LOGOUT_FROM('DISQUS')})
										: ((Dsq.jsonData.request.remote_domain == 'twitter')
												? Dsq.Utils.interpolate('using Twitter (<a href="%(disqus_url)s%(logout_url)s?ctkn=%(csrf_token)s" title="Logout">Logout</a>)',
												 {logout_url: Dsq.Urls.LOGOUT, csrf_token: Dsq.CSRF_TOKEN})
												: ((Dsq.jsonData.request.remote_domain == 'openid')
													 ? Dsq.Utils.interpolate('using OpenID (<a href="%(disqus_url)s%(logout_url)s?ctkn=%(csrf_token)s" title="Logout">Logout</a>)',
													 {logout_url: Dsq.Urls.LOGOUT, csrf_token: Dsq.CSRF_TOKEN})
													 : ''
													)
											)
									),

									(!Dsq.jsonData.request.is_remote ? Dsq.FmtStrings.LOGOUT_FROM('<span class="logo-disqus">DISQUS</span>') : ''),
									'</a>',
								'</li>',
							'</ul>',
						'</div>',
					'</div>'
		]);
		if (Dsq.jsonData.context.use_fb_connect) {
			result = result.concat([
					'<div id="dsq-fbc-authenticated" class="dsq-authenticated">',
						'<div id="dsq-fbc-profilepic" class="dsq-authenticated-pic" uid="loggedinuser" type="FB.XFBML.ProfilePic" size="square" facebook-logo="true"></div>',
						'<div class="dsq-authenticated-info">',
							'<ul>',
								'<li>',
									'Logged in as <span id="dsq-fbc-name" uid="loggedinuser" type="FB.XFBML.Name" linked="true" useyou="false"></span>',
								'</li>',
								'<li class="logout">using Facebook Connect <a href="#" onclick="javascript:DisqusFbcParentController.logout();return false;">(Logout)</a></li>',
							'</ul>',
						'</div>',
					'</div>'
			]);
		}
		result = result.concat([
				'</div>', // dsq-auth
				'<div id="dsq-toolbar-items">',
				'</div>'
		]);
		result = result.concat([
					//
					//
					//
				((!Dsq.jsonData.forum.allow_anon_post && !Dsq.jsonData.request.is_authenticated) ?
					// Needs to be translated:
					('<p id="dsq-no-anon-msg">Required: Please log into <span class="logo-disqus">Disqus</span> ' +
					(Dsq.jsonData.context.use_fb_connect ? 'or connect with Facebook ' : '') +
					(Dsq.jsonData.context.use_twitter_signin ? 'or sign in with Twitter ' : '') +
					(Dsq.jsonData.context.use_openid ? 'or sign in using OpenID ' : '') +
					Dsq.Utils.interpolate('to comment on <strong>%(forum_name)s</strong>.</p>')) :
					''
				),
				'<div id="dsq-post-add"></div>',
				'<div style="margin:10px 0">',
				((Dsq.jsonData.forum.use_media) ?
						'<a href="#" id="dsq-media-link" onclick="Dsq.Post.showMenu(this, false, \'media\'); return false">' + Dsq.Strings.USE_MEDIA + ' <small>&#9660;</small></a>' :
						''),
				'</div>'
		]);
		return result.join('');
	};


	this.header = function() {

		var html = '\<h3 id="dsq-comments-count" class="dsq-h3-commentcount">\
	 <span id="dsq-num-posts">13</span> Comments\
	 &nbsp;\
	 <span class="dsq-item-feed">\
	 <a href="http://disqus.com/forums/andrewmcafee/a_case_for_prediction_markets/latest.rss"><img src="http://media.disqus.com/images/embed/bullet-feed.png"></a>\
	 </span>\
	 </h3>\
	 <div id="dsq-options" style="margin:15px 0">\
	 <span class="dsq-item-sort">\
	 Sort by\
	 <select id="dsq-sort-select" onchange="Dsq.Thread.sortBy(this.value);">\
	 <option value="hot" >Popular now</option>\
	 <option value="best" >Best Rating</option>\
	 <option value="newest" selected="selected">Newest first</option>\
	 <option value="oldest" >Oldest first</option>\
	 </select>\
	 &nbsp;\
	 </span>\
	 <span class="dsq-item-cp"><a href="http://disqus.com/forums/andrewmcafee/a_case_for_prediction_markets/">Community Page</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span>\
	 <span class="dsq-item-subscribe">\
	 <img src="http://media.disqus.com/images/embed/email.png" style="width:12px;height:12px;vertical-align:middle">\
	 <span id="dsq-subscribe">\
	 <a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Thread.subscribe(1); return false">Subscribe by email</a>\
	 </span>\
	 </span>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-alerts">\
	 </div>\
		';

		
			html = Dsq.Templates.authPost() + html;
		

		
		if (Dsq.jsonData.request.is_moderator) { 
			html = ' \
			<div class="dsq-alert-message dsq-upgrade-message"> \
				<strong>Disqus upgrade available.</strong> Hi ' + Dsq.jsonData.request.display_username + ', this message is being displayed to you because you are a moderator of this site. <a href="#" onclick="Dsq.$(\'dsq-upgrade-message\').style.display=\'block\';this.style.display=\'none\';return false">Click here for details.</a> \
				<div style="display:none; margin-top:10px;" id="dsq-upgrade-message"> \
					A new theme is available with added features. <a href="http://disqus.com/comments/settings/' + Dsq.jsonData.forum.url + '/?p=customize">To change your theme, click here</a> and choose the theme Narcissus. \
					If you do not upgrade, you are missing out on features such as: real-time commenting, new sign-in integrations, and an upgrade interface. \
					<strong>This message will automatically go away in one week.</strong> \
				</div> \
			</div> \
			' + html; 
		}
		return html;
	};

	this.footer = function() {
		var html = Dsq.Templates.pagination();

		

		html += Dsq.Templates.reactions();

		
			html += Dsq.Templates.trackbacks();
		

		return html;
	};

	this.pagination = function() {
		var html = '';
		
		if (Dsq.$('dsq-pagination')) { Dsq.$('dsq-pagination').innerHTML = ''; }
		if (!Dsq.jsonData.thread.paginate) { return ''; }

		//
		// TODO: num_paginator still uses the template tag for pagination, 
		// 		while append_paginator does it all in JavaScript.
		//		This should all be in JavaScript.
		//

		if (Dsq.jsonData.thread.num_pages > 1 && Dsq.jsonData.request.page < Dsq.jsonData.thread.num_pages) {
			html = ' \<a class="dsq-paginate-append-text" href="#" onclick="Dsq.Thread.paginate(Dsq.jsonData.request.page + 1, this); return false">Show more comments...</a>\
	 <button class="dsq-button-small dsq-paginate-append-button" onclick="Dsq.Thread.paginate(Dsq.jsonData.request.page + 1, this);">Load more comments</button>\
			';
		}
		
		if (Dsq.$('dsq-pagination')) {
			Dsq.$('dsq-pagination').innerHTML = html;
			return '';
		} else {
			return '<div id="dsq-pagination" class="dsq-pagination">' + html + '</div>';
		}
	};

	this.trackbacks = function() {
		var html = '';

		if(typeof DsqLocal != 'undefined' && DsqLocal.trackback_url && DsqLocal.trackbacks) {
			var trackbacks = DsqLocal.trackbacks;
			var trackback_url = DsqLocal.trackback_url;
		} else {
			var trackbacks = [
			
			
			];
			var trackback_url = 'http://disqus.com/forums/andrewmcafee/a_case_for_prediction_markets/trackback/';
		}

		html += '<div class="dsq-item-trackback">Trackback URL&nbsp;&nbsp;<input class="dsq-trackback-url" onclick="this.select()" readonly="true" value="' + trackback_url + '"></div>';

		if(trackbacks.length) {
			html += '<ul id="dsq-references">'
			for(var i = 0; i < trackbacks.length; i++) {
				var trackback = trackbacks[i];
				html += '<li><cite><a href="' + trackback.author_url + '" rel="nofollow">' + trackback.author_name + '</a></cite> \
						<p class="dsq-meta">' + trackback.date + '</p> \
						<p class="dsq-content">' + trackback.excerpt + '</p></li>';
			}
			html += '</ul>';
			html = '<h3 class="dsq-h3-trackbacks">Trackbacks</h3>' + html;
		}

		return html;
	}

	this.showRetweets = function(id, limit, element_id /* Optional */) {
		var source, html = '';

		for (var i = 0, reaction; reaction = Dsq.jsonData.reactions[i]; i++) {
			if (reaction.id === id) {
				source = reaction.retweets;
			}
		}

		if (source) {
			if (limit === 0) {
				limit = source.length;
			}

			for (var j = 0; j < limit; j++) {
				var rt = source[j];
				html += '<a href="' + rt.url + '">' + rt.author_name + '</a>'	+ ((j === (limit - 1)) ? '.' : ', ');
			}
		}

		if (element_id === undefined) {
			return html;
		}

		var element = document.getElementById(element_id);
		element.innerHTML = html;
		return element;
	};

	this.showMoreReactions = function(reactions, has_more, start, limit) {
		var link = document.getElementById('dsq-show-more-reactions');
		var container = link.parentNode;
		container.removeChild(link);

		for (var i = 0, reaction; reaction = reactions[i]; i++) {
			var el = Dsq.Templates.generateReactionHTML(reaction);
			if (el) {
				container.innerHTML += el;
			}
		}

		if (has_more) {
			var d = Dsq.jsonData.settings.disqus_url;
			var f = Dsq.jsonData.forum.url;
			var t = Dsq.jsonData.thread.id;
			var s = start;
			var l = limit;

			var handler = 'Dsq.Utils.execScript(\'' + d + '/forums/' + f + '/more_reactions.js?t=' + t + '&s=' + s + '&l=' + l + '\', true); return false;';
			container.innerHTML += '<li id="dsq-show-more-reactions"><a href="#" onclick="' + handler + '">Show more reactions</a></li>';
		}
	};

	this.generateReactionHTML = function(reaction) {
		if (reaction.body === null || reaction.body == '') {
			return;
		}

		if (reaction.author_name === '') {
			reaction.author_name = '&nbsp;';
		}

		if (reaction.url === '') {
			reaction.url = reaction.get_service_url;
		}

		/* Reaction HTML begins */
		var item = '<li class="dsq-reaction" id="dsq-reaction-' + reaction.id + '">'
			+ '<div class="dsq-reaction-header">'
			+ '<div class="dsq-header-avatar">';

		if (reaction.author_url && reaction.author_url !== '') {
			item += '<a target="_blank" href="' + reaction.author_url +'">';
		} else {
			item += '<a target="_blank" href="#" onclick="return false;">';
		}

		if (reaction.avatar_url && reaction.avatar_url !== '') {
			item += '<img src="' + reaction.avatar_url + '"/>';
		} else {
			item += '<img src="' + Dsq.jsonData.media_url + '/images/noavatar32.png"/>';
		}

		var service_icon = (reaction.get_service_name == 'trackback' || reaction.get_service_name == 'pingback' ? 'rss' : reaction.get_service_name.replace(' ', ''));
		item += '<img class="dsq-service-icon" src="' + Dsq.jsonData.media_url + '/images/reactions/services/' + service_icon + '.png"/>'
			+ '</a></div>'
			+ '<cite><span>' + reaction.author_name + '</span></cite>'
			+ '<span class="dsq-header-meta"><a class="dsq-header-time">' + reaction.date_created + '</a></span>'
			+ '</div><div class="dsq-reaction-body">'
			+ '<div class="dsq-reaction-message">' + reaction.body + '</div>'
			+ '<div class="dsq-reaction-footer">From <a class="dsq-service-name" target="_blank" href="' + reaction.url + '">' + reaction.get_service_name + '</a> '
			+ 'via ' + (reaction.source == 'backtype' ? '<a href="http://backtype.com/">BackType</a>' : '<a href="' + reaction.source_url + '">UberVU</a>')
			+ (Dsq.jsonData.request.is_moderator || Dsq.jsonData.request.is_global_moderator ? '&nbsp;&bull;&nbsp;<a class="dsq-hide-reaction" href="#" onclick="Dsq.Reaction.hide(' + reaction.id + '); return false;">Hide</a>' : '') + '</div></div>';

		if(reaction.retweets) {
			var num_retweets = reaction.retweets.length;
			if (num_retweets > 0) {
				item += '<div class="dsq-reaction-retweets">';
				if (num_retweets == 1) {
					item += 'One more retweet from <a href="' + reaction.retweets[0].url + '">'  + reaction.retweets[0].author_name + '</a>';
				} else {
					item += (num_retweets + ' more retweets from ');

					item += '<span id="dsq-reaction-retweets-' + reaction.id + '">';
					var n_tweets = (num_retweets > 15) ? 15 : num_retweets;
					item += Dsq.Templates.showRetweets(reaction.id, n_tweets);

					if (n_tweets != num_retweets) {
						item += '</span> <a onclick="Dsq.Templates.showRetweets(' + reaction.id + ', 0, \'dsq-reaction-retweets-' + reaction.id + '\');'
							+ 'this.parentNode.removeChild(this); return false;" href="#">Show all</a>';
					}
				}
				item += '</div>';
			}
		}

		item += '</li>'; /* Reaction HTML ends */
		return item;
	};

	this.reactions = function() {
		var html, reaction;

		if (Dsq.jsonData.reactions === undefined || Dsq.jsonData.reactions.length === 0) {
			return '';
		}

		html = '';
		for (var i = 0; reaction = Dsq.jsonData.reactions[i]; i++) {
			var item = Dsq.Templates.generateReactionHTML(reaction);
			if (item) {
				html += item;
			}
		}

		if (Dsq.jsonData.has_more_reactions) {
			var d = Dsq.jsonData.settings.disqus_url;
			var f = Dsq.jsonData.forum.url;
			var t = Dsq.jsonData.thread.id;
			var s = Dsq.jsonData.reactions_start;
			var l = Dsq.jsonData.reactions_limit;

			var handler = 'Dsq.Utils.execScript(\'' + d + '/forums/' + f + '/more_reactions.js?t=' + t + '&s=' + s + '&l=' + l + '\', true); return false;';
			html += '<li id="dsq-show-more-reactions"><a href="#" onclick="' + handler + '">Show more reactions</a></li>';
		}

		return '<h3 class="dsq-h3-reactions">Reactions</h3><ul id="dsq-reactions" class="dsq-reactions">' + html + '</ul>';
	};
	
	this.missingPermissions = function() {
		return '';
	};

	//
	// Post
	//

	this.prependPost = function(post_id) {
		var html = '<div id="comment-' + post_id + '"></div>';
		return html;
	};

	this.appendPost = function(post_id) {
		var html = '<div id="dsq-comment-reply-' + post_id + '"></div>';
		return html;
	};

	this.postPrependHeader = function(post_id) {
		var _meta = Dsq.jsonData.posts[post_id];
		var userData = Dsq.jsonData['users'][_meta.user_key];

		var _includeServices = function() {
			var userServices = Dsq.Post.getUserServices(null, post_id);
			var html = '';
			var hiddenThreshold = 3; // Define # of services to show before stuffing them in hidden div

			for(var i = 0; i < userServices.length; i++) {
				html +=
				(i == hiddenThreshold
					? '<li id="dsq-drop-hidden-' + post_id +'" class="dsq-drop-hidden"><ul>'
					: '')
				+ '<li class="dsq-drop-services"> \
					<a class="dsq-service-' + userServices[i].name.toLowerCase() + '" href="' + userServices[i].url + '" target="_blank"> \
						<img src="' + Dsq.jsonData.media_url + '/images/embed/services/' + userServices[i].name.toLowerCase() + '.png" alt="' + userServices[i].name.toLowerCase() + '">'
					+ userServices[i].name
					+ '</a> \
				</li>';
			}

			if(i >= hiddenThreshold) {
				html += '</ul></li> \
				<li id="dsq-drop-more-' + post_id + '" class="dsq-drop-more"><a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Post.dropProfileMore(this, '+ post_id + '); return false"><small>&#9660;</small></a></li> \
				';
			}
			return html;
		};

		return ' \
			<div class="dsq-header-avatar" id="dsq-header-avatar-' + post_id + '" onmouseover="Dsq.Post.dropProfile(' + post_id + ')"> \
				<a id="dsq-avatar-' + post_id + '" class="dsq-avatar" href="' + userData.url + '" onclick="Dsq.Popup.popProfile(' + post_id + '); return false;">'
			+ (Dsq.jsonData.forum.show_avatar
				? '<img src="' + Dsq.jsonData.users[_meta.user_key].avatar + '" alt="" />'
				: '')
			+ '</a>'
			+ '</div> \
		';
	};

	this.postAppendHeader = function(post_id) {
		var _meta = Dsq.jsonData.posts[post_id];

		return ''
			+ (_meta.author_is_moderator
				? '<img class="dsq-mod-star" src="http://media.disqus.com/images/bullet-star.png" title="Moderator" alt="" />'
				: '')
			+ '<span class="dsq-header-meta"> \
				<a id="dsq-time-' + post_id + '" class="dsq-header-time" href="#comment-' + post_id + '" title="Permalink">' + _meta.date + '</a> \
			</span>';
	};

	this.preBody = function(post_id) {
		return '';
	}

	this.postBody = function(post_id) {
		// TODO: Deprecate flagging conditional
		var _meta = Dsq.jsonData.posts[post_id];
		return ''
			+ (_meta.edited
				? '<p class="dsq-editedtxt">(Edited by a moderator)</p>'
				: '')
			;
	};

	this.postFooter = function(post_id) {
		// TODO: Use media should be conditional
		var _meta = Dsq.jsonData.posts[post_id];
		if(_meta.killed) { return ''; }

		return ' \
			<div class="dsq-comment-footer" id="dsq-comment-footer-' + post_id + '"> \
				<div id="dsq-points-' + post_id + '" class="dsq-likedtxt">'
				+ (_meta.points
					? _meta.points + Dsq.Utils.pluralize(_meta.points, ' person', ' people') + ' liked this comment.'
					: '')
				+ '</div>'
				+ '<ul class="dsq-comment-options dsq-list-style">'
				+ (_meta.votable
					? '<li class="dsq-list-first dsq-rate" id="dsq-rate-cont-' + post_id + '">'
					+ (!_meta.up_voted
						? '<a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Post.rate(this, ' + post_id + ', 1); return false;">Like</a>'
						: 'You liked this.') + '</li>'
					: '')
				+ '<li class="dsq-report' + (!_meta.votable ? ' dsq-list-first' : '') + '" id="dsq-post-report-' + post_id + '"><a href="#" class="dsq-post-report" onclick="Dsq.Post.report(' + post_id + ', false); return false;">Report</a></li> \
				</ul> \
				<ul class="dsq-list-style">'
				+ (_meta.can_reply
					? '<li class="dsq-list-first"><a href="#" id="dsq-reply-link-' + post_id +'" onclick="Dsq.Post.toggleReply(this, ' + post_id +'); return false;">Reply</a></li>'
					: '')
				+ (_meta.can_reply && !_meta.has_replies && _meta.from_request_user
					? '<li id="dsq-edit-el-' + post_id + '"><a id="dsq-edit-link-' + post_id + '" href="#" onclick="Dsq.Post.edit(this, ' + post_id + '); return false;">Edit</a></li>'
					: '')
				+ '<li class="' + (!_meta.can_reply ? 'dsq-list-first' : '') + '" id="dsq-more-el-' + post_id + '"><a id="dsq-more-link-' + post_id + '" href="#" onclick="Dsq.Post.showMenu(this, ' + post_id + ', \'more\'); return false">More <small>&#9660;</small></a></li>'
				+ (Dsq.jsonData.forum.use_media
					? '<li id="dsq-media-el-' + post_id +'" style="display:none"><a id="dsq-media-link-' + post_id + '" href="#" onclick="Dsq.Post.showMenu(this, ' + post_id + ', \'media\'); return false">Use Media <small>&#9660;</small></a></li>'
					: '')
				+ '</ul>'
				+ '<div id="dsq-reply-bar-' + post_id + '" class="dsq-reply-bar" style="display:none"> \
						<div id="dsq-reply-bar-items-' + post_id + '" class="dsq-reply-bar-items"> \
						</div> \
						<div id="dsq-reply-bar-auth-' + post_id + '" class="dsq-reply-bar-auth"> \
							 \
								 \
								 	<a href="#" class="dsq-help dsq-reply-req-opt" title="You are commenting as a Guest. You may choose to log into an existing DISQUS Profile, your Facebook, Twitter or OpenID account to comment on Andrew McAfee&#39;s Blog" onclick="Dsq.Popup.helpBadges(); return false">Optional:</a> \
								 \
								<img class="dsq-login-icon" src="http://media.disqus.com/images/dsq-favicon-16x16.png" alt="" /> \
								<a id="dsq-reply-login-' + post_id + '" href="http://disqus.com/profile/login/?next=article:10392594" onclick="Dsq.Popup.login(); return false">Login</a> \
								 \
								&nbsp;or&nbsp; \
									<img src="http://media.disqus.com/images/twitter-signin-icon.png" alt="" /> \
									<a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Twitter.startTwitterConnect(); return false">Sign-in</a> \
								 \
								&nbsp;or&nbsp; \
									 <img src="http://media.disqus.com/images/openid-login-icon.png" alt="" /> \
									 <a href="#" onclick="Dsq.OpenID.requestURL(); return false">OpenID</a> \
								 \
							 \
						</div> \
					</div> \
					<div id="dsq-reply-' + post_id + '"></div> \
			</div> \
		';
	};

	//
	// Iframes
	//

	this._makeAttributes = function(attributes) {
		// Makes a tag attributes string out of an object.
		// Caller is responsible for making sure nothing needs to be escaped.
		var result = [];
		for (key in attributes) {
			result.push(' ' + key + '="' + attributes[key] + '"');
		}
		result = result.join('');
		return result;
	};

	this._frameGeneric = function(base_url, params, attributes) {
		if(typeof(disqus_callback_params) == 'undefined') {
			disqus_callback_params = '';
		}

		var default_params = {
			// TODO: These should be moved to Dsq.jsonData.
			'f'				: 'andrewmcafee',
			't'				: 'a_case_for_prediction_markets',
			// Do we need encodeURIComponent here?
			'ifrs'			: encodeURIComponent(disqus_iframe_css),
			'to_redirect'	: encodeURIComponent(window.location),
			'cbp'			: disqus_callback_params,
			'ff'			: Dsq.Thread.ff,
			'fc'			: Dsq.Thread.fc,
			'ac'			: Dsq.Thread.ac,
			'default_text'	: disqus_default_text
		};

		base_url += '?' + (new Date()).getTime();
		// Add params to default_params.
		if(params) {
			for(var key in params) {
				if(params.hasOwnProperty(key)) {
					default_params[key] = encodeURIComponent(params[key]);
				}
			}
		}
		// Build querystring.
		for(var key in default_params) {
			if(default_params[key] && default_params.hasOwnProperty(key)) {
				base_url += '&' + key + '=' + default_params[key];
			}
		}

		return [
			'<iframe marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" hspace="0" vspace="0" frameborder="0"',
			(' allowtransparency="true" src="' + base_url + '"'),
			this._makeAttributes(attributes),
			'</iframe>'].join('');
	};

	this.frameLogin = function(opt_attributes) {
		var params = {};
		var base_url = 'http://disqus.com/embed/login.html';
		var attributes = opt_attributes || {};
		attributes['class'] = 'dsq-post-login';

		if(typeof disqus_frame_theme != 'undefined') {
			params['theme'] = disqus_frame_theme;
		}
		return this._frameGeneric(base_url, params, attributes);
	};

	this.frameReply = function(post_id, extra_params, attributes) {
		// Returns the HTML for a reply iframe. Called by Dsq.Iframes.setReplyIframeToContainer
		var _meta = (typeof post_id != 'undefined') ? Dsq.jsonData.posts[post_id] : false;
		var base_url = Dsq.Urls.REPLY;
		var params = {
			'def_email'		: disqus_def_email,
			'def_name'		: disqus_def_name
		};
		if(extra_params) {
			for(var key in extra_params) {
				if(extra_params.hasOwnProperty(key)) {
					params[key] = extra_params[key];
				}
			}
		}
		if(_meta) {
			params['parent_post'] = post_id;
		}
		if(typeof disqus_per_page != 'undefined') {
			params['per_page'] = disqus_per_page;
		}
		if(typeof disqus_frame_theme != 'undefined') {
			params['theme'] = disqus_frame_theme;
		}
		if(Dsq.jsonData.request.is_authenticated) {
			attributes['class'] += '-authenticated';
		}
		return this._frameGeneric(base_url, params, attributes);
	};

	this.frameEdit = function(post_id) {
		var _meta = (typeof post_id != 'undefined') ? Dsq.jsonData.posts[post_id] : false;
		var base_url = 'http://disqus.com/embed/edit.html';
		var params = {
			'p' : post_id
		};
		return this._frameGeneric(base_url, params, {'class': 'dsq-post-edit', 'name': 'dsq-edit_' + post_id + '-frame'});
	};

	//
	// Menus
	//

	this.menuMore = function(post_id) {
		// TODO: "Remove post" button should hide menu.
		var _meta = Dsq.jsonData.posts[post_id];
		var userData = Dsq.jsonData['users'][_meta.user_key];
		return ' \
			<li><a href="#comment-' + post_id + '" onclick="Dsq.Popup.permalink(' + post_id + ')">Link</a></li> \
			<li><a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Popup.popProfile(' + post_id + '); return false;">Profile</a></li>'
	+ (Dsq.jsonData.request.is_moderator || Dsq.jsonData.request.is_global_moderator
		? '	<li class="dsq-menu-sep"></li>' + (_meta.email ? '<li class="dsq-admin-email">' + _meta.email + '</li>' : '')
		+ '	<li class="dsq-admin-ip">' + _meta.ip + '</li> \
			<li class="dsq-menu-sep"></li>'
		+ (Dsq.jsonData.request.moderator_can_edit
			? ' <li class="dsq-admin-edit"><a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Post.edit(this, ' + post_id + '); return false;">Edit Comment</a></li>'
			: '')
		+ ' <li class="dsq-remove"><a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Post.removePost(' + post_id + ', 1); return false;">Remove Comment</a></li> \
			<li class="dsq-report-spam"><a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Post.reportSpam(' + post_id + '); return false;">Mark Spam</a></li> \
			<li class="dsq-block-user"><a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Popup.blacklist(' + post_id + '); return false">Block User</a></li>'
		: '');
	};

	this.menuMedia = function(post_id) {
		return ' \
			<li><a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Post.toggleMediaReply(this, ' + post_id + ', \'seesmic\'); return false;">Record video</a></li> \
		';
	};

	this.dropProfile = function(post_id) {
		var _meta = Dsq.jsonData.posts[post_id];
		var userData = Dsq.jsonData['users'][_meta.user_key];

		var _includeServices = function() {
			var userServices = Dsq.Post.getUserServices(null, post_id);
			var html = '';
			var hiddenThreshold = 3; // Define # of services to show before stuffing them in hidden div

			for(var i = 0; i < userServices.length; i++) {
				html +=
				(i == hiddenThreshold
					? '<li id="dsq-drop-hidden-' + post_id +'" class="dsq-drop-hidden"><ul>'
					: '')
				+ '<li class="dsq-drop-services"> \
					<a class="dsq-service-' + userServices[i].name.toLowerCase() + '" href="' + userServices[i].url + '" target="_blank"> \
						<img src="' + Dsq.jsonData.media_url + '/images/embed/services/' + userServices[i].name.toLowerCase() + '.png" alt="' + userServices[i].name.toLowerCase() + '">'
					+ userServices[i].name
					+ '</a> \
				</li>';
			}

			if(i >= hiddenThreshold) {
				html += '</ul></li> \
				<li id="dsq-drop-more-' + post_id + '" class="dsq-drop-more"><a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Post.dropProfileMore(this, '+ post_id + '); return false"><small>&#9660;</small></a></li> \
				';
			}
			return html;
		};


		var menu = '<li class="dsq-drop-showlnk"><a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Popup.popProfile(' + post_id + '); return false;">Expand &#8663;</a></li>';
		var pointsMessage = '';
		if (userData['registered']) {
			pointsMessage = 'with ' + userData['points'] + ' points (more points are better).';
		}

		if (userData['is_remote']) {
			var domain = userData['remote_domain_name'];
			menu += '<li class="dsq-drop-badge" title="' + userData['display_name'] + ' is a ' + domain + ' user ' + pointsMessage + '" onclick="Dsq.Popup.helpBadges()">';
			menu += '<span class="dsq-badge-' + domain.toLowerCase() + '">' + domain + '</span></li>';
		} else if (userData['registered']) {
			if (userData['verified']) {
				menu += '<li class="dsq-drop-badge" title="' + userData['display_name'] + ' has a verified commenter profile ' + pointsMessage + '" onclick="Dsq.Popup.helpBadges()">';
				menu += '<span class="dsq-badge-verified">Verified</span></li>';
			} else {
				menu += '<li class="dsq-drop-badge" title="' + userData['display_name'] + ' has a registered, but unverified, commenter profile ' + pointsMessage + '" onclick="Dsq.Popup.helpBadges()">';
				menu += '<span class="dsq-badge-registered">Registered</span></li>';
			}
		} else {
			menu += '<li class="dsq-drop-badge" title="' + userData['display_name'] + ' has not claimed this commenter profile." onclick="Dsq.Popup.helpBadges()"><span class="dsq-badge-guest">Guest</span></li>';
		}

		menu += _includeServices();
		return menu;
	};

	//
	// Popups
	//

	this._popupGeneric = function(content) {
		return ' \
		<div class="dsq-popup-content"> \
			<div class="dsq-popup-top"></div> \
			<div class="dsq-popup-body" class="clearfix"> \
				<div class="dsq-popup-body-padding"> \
					<div class="dsq-popup-header"> \
						<a class="dsq-close-link" href="#" onclick="Dsq.Popup._closePopup(null, true); return false"><img src="http://media.disqus.com/images/modal-close.png" alt="" /></a>'
						+ content['header']
					+ '</div>'
					+ content['body']
					+ '<div class="powered-by"><a href="http://disqus.com/comments/">Powered by <img src="http://media.disqus.com/images/embed/disqus-logo.png" alt="Disqus Comments" style="margin-bottom:-5px" /></a></div> \
				</div> <!-- padding --> \
			</div> <!-- body --> \
			<div class="dsq-popup-bottom"></div> \
		</div> \
		';
	};

	this.popupProfile = function(user_key) {
		var userServices = Dsq.Post.getUserServices(user_key, null);
		var userData = Dsq.jsonData['users'][user_key];
		var headerHtml = '';
		var bodyHtml = '';
		var content = {};

		var _includeServices = function() {
			var html = '';
			for(var i = 0; i < userServices.length; i++) {
				html +=
				(i == 0
					? '<h4>Connections</h4><ul>'
					: '')
				+ '<li> \
					<img src="' + Dsq.jsonData.media_url + '/images/embed/services/' + userServices[i].name.toLowerCase() + '.png" alt="' + userServices[i].name.toLowerCase() + '" title="' + userServices[i].name.toLowerCase() + '" /> \
					<a class="dsq-service-' + userServices[i].name.toLowerCase() + '" href="' + userServices[i].url + '" target="_blank">'
					+ userServices[i].name
					+ '</a> \
				</li>'
				+ (i+1 == userServices.length ? '</ul>' : '');
			}
			return html;
		};

		headerHtml = ' \
			<table> \
				<tr> \
					<td> \
						<a class="dsq-profile-userurl" href="' + userData.url + '"><img class="dsq-popup-profile-avatar" src="' + userData['avatar'] + '" alt="" /></a> \
					</td> \
					<td> \
						<div class="dsq-popup-profile-user"> \
							<h3>' + userData['display_name'] + '</h3> \
							<div class="dsq-popup-profile-user-stats" id="dsq-popup-profile-user-stats-' + user_key + '">Loading...</div> \
						</div> \
					</td> \
				</tr> \
			</table> \
		';

		bodyHtml = ' \
			<div class="dsq-popup-profile-state"> \
				This is a&nbsp;<span class="'
					+ (userData['registered']
						? (userData['verified']
							? ' dsq-badge-verified'
							: (userData['is_remote']
								? ' dsq-badge-' + userData['remote_domain_name'].toLowerCase()
								: ' dsq-badge-registered')
							)
							: ' dsq-badge-guest') + '">'
			+ (userData['registered']
				? (userData['verified']
					? 'Verified'
					: (userData['is_remote']
						 ? userData['remote_domain_name']
						 : 'Registered')
					)
				: 'Guest')
			+ '</span>&nbsp;commenter profile.'
			+ '&nbsp;<a class="dsq-profile-userurl" href="' + userData.url + '"><strong>View more comments </strong></a>'
			+ (!userData['points']
				? '<p class="dsq-popup-notice">If this is you, <a href="http://disqus.com/profile" target="_blank">claim it now</a> to manage your comments.</p>'
				: '')
			+ ((userData['registered'] && !userData['verified'] && (Dsq.jsonData.request.username && (Dsq.jsonData.request.username == userData['username'])) && !userData['is_remote'])
				? '<p class="dsq-popup-notice"><strong>Alert</strong>: You have not verified this account. <a href="http://disqus.com/verify">Verify it now.</a></p>'
				: '')
			+ '</div> \
			<div id="dsq-profile-status-' + user_key + '" class="dsq-popup-profile-status" style="display:none"></div> \
			<div class="dsq-popup-profile-snapshot"> \
				<table> \
					<tr> \
						<td> \
							<div id="dsq-popup-profile-active-sites-wrapper-' + user_key + '"> \
								<h4>Most active sites</h4> \
								<ul id="dsq-popup-profile-active-sites-' + user_key + '"> \
									<li>Loading...</li> \
								</ul> \
							</div> \
						</td> \
						<td>'
							+ _includeServices()
							+ '<div id="dsq-popup-profile-moderated-wrapper-' + user_key + '"> \
								<h4>Moderator of</h4> \
								<ul id="dsq-popup-profile-moderated-' + user_key + '"> \
									<li>Loading...</li> \
								</ul> \
							</div> \
						</td> \
					</tr> \
				</table> \
			</div> \
			';

		content = {
			'header': headerHtml,
			'body': bodyHtml
		};

		return this._popupGeneric(content);
	};

	this.popupReblog = function() {
		var headerHtml = '';
		var bodyHtml = '';
		var content = {};

		headerHtml = ' \
			<cite><span>Reblog this comment</span></cite> \
		';

		bodyHtml = ' \
			<div id="dsq-reblog-form" class="dsq-reblog-form"> \
			</div> \
		';

		content = {
			'header': headerHtml,
			'body': bodyHtml
		};

		return this._popupGeneric(content);
	};

	this.popupModal = function(title, message) {
		var headerHtml = '';
		var bodyHtml = '';
		var content = {};

		headerHtml = ' \
			<h3>' + title + '</h3> \
		';

		bodyHtml = message;

		content = {
			'header': headerHtml,
			'body': bodyHtml
		};

		return this._popupGeneric(content);
	};

	this.alertContent = function(name, post_id) {
		var alert = {
			'post_not_approved': {
				'title': 'Comment awaiting approval by a moderator',
				'message': 'Thanks for posting. Your comment must be approved by a moderator before appearing here.'
			},
			'post_has_profile': {
				'title': 'Use your existing commenter profile',
				'message': 'You have just posted your commment as a <span class="dsq-badge dsq-badge-guest">Guest</span>, but you may already have a <span class="dsq-badge dsq-badge-registered">Registered</span> commenter profile.<br /><br /><a href="http://disqus.com/claim">Log in and claim this comment!</a>'
			}
		};
		return alert[name] || false;
	};

	//
	// Actions
	//

	this.voted = function(post_id, points, vote) {
		// Update number of points
		Dsq.$('dsq-points-' + post_id).innerHTML = points + Dsq.Utils.pluralize(points, ' person', ' people') + ' liked this comment.';

		// Update link text
		if(vote) {
			Dsq.$('dsq-rate-cont-' + post_id).innerHTML = 'You liked this.';
		}
	};

	this.subscribed = function(status) {
		var title, message;

		if(status) {
			title = 'Subscribed!';
			message = 'You have subscribed to this comment thread. New comments will be sent directly to your email inbox, where you may read and respond by email.';
			Dsq.$('dsq-subscribe').innerHTML = ' \
				<a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Thread.subscribe(0); return false">Unsubscribe</a> \
			';
		} else {
			title = 'Unsubscribed';
			message = 'You have unsubscribed to this comment thread. New comments will no longer be sent to your email inbox.';
			Dsq.$('dsq-subscribe').innerHTML = ' \
				<a href="#" onclick="Dsq.Thread.subscribe(1); return false">Subscribe by email</a> \
			';
		}

		Dsq.Popup.popModal(message, title);

	};
	
	this.highlighted = function() {
		Dsq.Popup.popModal('This comment has been highlighted.', 'Highlighted comment');
	};

	//
	// Media
	//

	this.mediaSeesmic = function(id, thumb) {
		return ' \
			<div id="dsq-seesmic-' + id + '_preview" class="dsq-seesmic-preview"><a href="http://www.seesmic.com/video/' + id + '" target="_blank" class="see_link">&nbsp;</a> \
				<div style="display:block;width:160px; height:120px; border:none; background-image:url(http://t.seesmic.com/thumbnail/' + thumb + ')"> \
					<div id="dsq-seesmic-' + id + '_hide" class="seePlayOverlay" style="display:none;"><img onclick="see_play_video(\'' + id + '\',false)" src="http://media.disqus.com/images/seesmic/stopOverlay.png" width="50" height="50" style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand; padding-top: 30px; padding-left: 50px" alt="" /></div> \
					<div id="dsq-seesmic-' + id + '_show" class="seePlayOverlay"><img onclick="see_play_video(\'' + id + '\',true)" src="http://media.disqus.com/images/seesmic/playOverlay.png" width="50" height="50" style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand; border:none; padding-top: 30px; padding-left: 50px" alt="" /></div> \
				</div> \
			</div> \
			<div id="' + id + '_content" style="display:block; width:100%; padding-top:5px"></div> \
		';
	};

	//
	// Callbacks
	//

	this.postComment_onSuccess = function(parent_post_id) {
		// Increment post count
		var num_posts = Dsq.$('dsq-num-posts');
		var total_posts = Dsq.$('dsq-total-posts');
		
		if (num_posts) { 
			num_posts.innerHTML = parseInt(num_posts.innerHTML) + 1;
		}
		if (total_posts) { 
			total_posts.innerHTML = parseInt(total_posts.innerHTML) + 1;
		}
	};
};
// Dsq.Templates


/**
 * Dsq.Post
 */
Dsq.Post = new function() {
	this.openedMenu = {};
	this.menuEventListener = null;
	this.stateReplyToggled = {};
	this.stateEditToggled = {};
	this.stateRecordLink = {};

	/**
	 * Inserts a new post into the document.
	 *
	 * @param after_id {Number}	Insert a post before specified id.  If after_id
	 *							evaluates to false, then post in the front.  If
	 *							after_id is -1, post at the end.
	 */
	this.insert = function(after_id, id, message, author) {
		// Skeleton template from thread_posts.html.
		var skeleton = ' \
			<li id="dsq-comment-%(id)s"> \
				<div id="dsq-comment-header-%(id)s" class="dsq-comment-header"> \
					<cite id="dsq-cite-%(id)s" class="dsq-comment-cite"> \
						<a id="dsq-author-user-%(id)s" href="%(author_url)s" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">%(author_name)s</a> \
					</cite> \
				</div> \
				<div id="dsq-comment-body-%(id)s" class="dsq-comment-body"> \
					<div id="dsq-comment-message-%(id)s" class="dsq-comment-message">%(message)s</div> \
				</div> \
			</li> \
		';
		var _meta = Dsq.jsonData.posts[id];
		var _user_meta = Dsq.jsonData.users[_meta.user_key];
		var markup = Dsq.Utils.interpolate(skeleton, {
			id: id,
			message: message,
			author_url: _user_meta.blog,
			author_name: _user_meta.display_name
		});
		var div = document.createElement('div');
		markup = markup.replace(Dsq.COMMENTS_RE, Dsq.CommentsHandler);
		div.innerHTML = markup;

		if (after_id === -1) {
			Dsq.$('dsq-comments').appendChild(div);
		} else if (!after_id) {
			Dsq.$('dsq-comments').insertBefore(div, Dsq.$('dsq-comments').firstChild);
		} else if (Dsq.$('dsq-comment-' + after_id)) {
			// Get next node after "after_id", so we can insert before it.
			// If "after_id" is the last comment, the target node is the
			// last node.
			
			// var append_post_id = Dsq.Templates.appendPost(after_id).replace('<div id="','').replace('"></div>', '');
			var append_post_id = 'dsq-append-post-' + after_id;
			var node = Dsq.$(append_post_id);
			while (node = node.nextSibling) {
				if (!node || node.nodeType == 1) { // 1 == Node.ELEMENT_NODE
					break;
				}
			}
			if (!node) {
				node = Dsq.$(append_post_id);
			}
			node.parentNode.insertBefore(div, node);
		}
	};

	this.incrementPostCount = function() {
		
		var num_posts = Dsq.$('dsq-num-posts');
		var total_posts = Dsq.$('dsq-total-posts');

		if (num_posts) {
			num_posts.innerHTML = parseInt(num_posts.innerHTML, 10) + 1;
		}
		if (total_posts) {
			total_posts.innerHTML = parseInt(total_posts.innerHTML, 10) + 1;
		}
	}
	
	this.outlineComment = function(post_id) {
		Dsq.$('dsq-comment-' + post_id).className += ' dsq-comment-outline';
		setTimeout("(function () { Dsq.Post.clearOutlineComment(" + post_id + ") })()", 3000);
	};
	
	this.clearOutlineComment = function(post_id) {
		Dsq.$('dsq-comment-' + post_id).className = Dsq.$('dsq-comment-' + post_id).className.replace('dsq-comment-outline', '');
	};

	this.showMenu = function(el, id, name) {
		var anchorPos = Dsq.Utils.findPos(el);
		var menu = document.createElement('ul');

		if(this.openedMenu) {
			if(this.openedMenu.linkClicked) {
				this.openedMenu.linkClicked = false;
				return;
			}
		}

		switch(name) {
			case 'more':
				menu.innerHTML = Dsq.Templates.menuMore(id);
				break;
			case 'media':
				menu.innerHTML = Dsq.Templates.menuMedia(id);
				break;
			default:
				break;
		}

		// Add menu to document body
		menu.id = 'dsq-menu-' + id;
		menu.className = 'dsq-menu';
		Dsq.$b.appendChild(menu);

		// Position and show
		anchorPos[1] += 15;
		menu.style.left = anchorPos[0] + 'px';
		menu.style.top = anchorPos[1] + 'px';
		menu.style.display = 'block';

		// Set global reference
		this.openedMenu = {
			'el' : menu,
			'id' : id,
			'name' : name,
			'linkClicked' : false
		};

		// Set listener
		this.menuEventListener = Dsq.Utils.addEventListener(document, 'mouseup', this._hideMenu);
	};

	this._hideMenu = function(e) {
		var el = e.target || e.srcElement;
		var openedMenu = Dsq.Post.openedMenu.el;
		var id = Dsq.Post.openedMenu.id;

		if(!id) {
			var link = 'dsq-' + Dsq.Post.openedMenu.name + '-link';
		} else {
			var link = 'dsq-' + Dsq.Post.openedMenu.name + '-link-' + id;
		}

		if(!openedMenu) {
			return;
		}

		if(!Dsq.Popup.isClicked(e, openedMenu.id)) {
			openedMenu.style.display = 'none';
			Dsq.Utils.removeEventListener(Dsq.Post.menuEventListener);
			Dsq.Utils.deleteNode(openedMenu);

		} else {
			// Hide the menu if a link was clicked inside the menu.  We can't
			// completely remove the menu until the onclick event on the link
			// fires, but the menuEventListener will prevent multiple menus
			// from polluting the DOM.
			if(el && typeof el.href != 'undefined') {
				openedMenu.style.display = 'none';
				Dsq.Post.openedMenu.el = null;
			}
		}

		if(Dsq.Popup.isClicked(e, link)) {
 			Dsq.Post.openedMenu.linkClicked = true;
		}
	};


	this.getUserServices = function(user_key, id) {
		if(!user_key && id) {
			var _meta = Dsq.jsonData.posts[id];
			user_key = _meta.user_key;
		}
		var userData = Dsq.jsonData['users'][user_key];
		var userServices = [];

		// Keep a full list of supported services. This is the order they will display in the drop-profile.
		// Each service must have a corresponding case in _buildServiceUrl()
		var supportedServices = ['blog', 'twitter', 'facebook', 'tumblr'];

		function _buildServiceUrl(serviceName) {
			var data = userData[serviceName];
			var services = {
				blog:		function(d) { return d; },
				twitter:	function(d) { return d; },
				facebook:	function(d) { return d; },
				tumblr:		function(d) { return 'http://' + d + '.tumblr.com'; }
			};
			return services[serviceName](data);
		}

		for(var i = 0; i < supportedServices.length; i++) {
			if(userData[supportedServices[i]]) {
				var serviceUrl = _buildServiceUrl(supportedServices[i]);
				userServices.push({'name' : supportedServices[i], 'url' : serviceUrl});
			}
		}
		return userServices;
	}

	this.dropProfile = function(id) {
		var dp = Dsq.$('dsq-drop-profile-' + id);

		// IE6 needs JS to display/hide. All other browsers use CSS.
		if(dp) {
			if(Dsq.Utils.ie6) dp.style.display = (dp.style.display == 'inline') ? 'none' : 'inline';
			return false;
		} else {
			dp = document.createElement('ul');
		}

		dp.id = 'dsq-drop-profile-' + id;
		dp.className = 'dsq-drop-profile';

		if(Dsq.Utils.ie6) { dp.style.display = 'inline'; }

		var container = Dsq.$('dsq-header-avatar-' + id);
		dp.innerHTML = Dsq.Templates.dropProfile(id);
		container.appendChild(dp);
	};

	this.dropProfileMore = function(el, id) {
		var hiddenItems = Dsq.$('dsq-drop-hidden-' + id);

		hiddenItems.style.display = 'inline';
		el.parentNode.style.display = 'none';
	};

	this._updateReplyLinks = function(el, id) {
		// Update "reply / cancel" links based on state.
		var displayDict = {};

		if(id) {
			if(this.stateReplyToggled[id]) {
				el.innerHTML = 'Cancel';
				displayDict['media'] = 'inline';
				displayDict['edit'] = 'none';
			} else {
				el.innerHTML = 'Reply';
				displayDict['media'] = 'none';
				displayDict['edit'] = 'inline';
			}
		}

		for(var key in displayDict) {
			if(displayDict.hasOwnProperty(key)) {
				var	linkEl = Dsq.$('dsq-' + key + '-el-' + id),
					spacer = Dsq.$('dsq-' + key + '-spacer-' + id);

				if(linkEl) {
					linkEl.style.display = displayDict[key];
					if(spacer) spacer.style.display = displayDict[key];
				}
			}
		}
	};

	this._updateMediaLinks = function(el, id) {
		// Update "use media / cancel" links based on state.
		var appendId = (id) ? ('-' + id) : '';
		var link = Dsq.$('dsq-media-link' + appendId);

		if(this.stateRecordLink[id]) {
			link.innerHTML = 'Cancel Media';
			link.onclick = function() { Dsq.Post.toggleMediaReply(link, id); return false; };
		} else {
			link.innerHTML = 'Use Media <small>&#9660;</small>';
			link.onclick = function() { Dsq.Post.showMenu(link, id, 'media'); return false; };
		}
	};

	this.toggleReply = function(el, id) {
		// Create reply IFrame
		if (window.disqus_use_postmessage) {
			if (!this.stateReplyToggled[id]) {
				Dsq.$('dsq-reply-' + id).style.display = 'block';
				Dsq.$('dsq-reply-bar-' + id).style.display = 'block';
				// Create IFrame if it doesn't exist.
				if (!Dsq.frames['reply_' + id]) {
					var _meta = Dsq.jsonData.posts[id];
					Dsq.frames['reply_' + id] = new Dsq.ReplyFrame(Dsq.$('dsq-reply-frame-' + id), id);
					Dsq.frames['reply_' + id].init();
					Dsq.frames['reply_' + id].setState(id, _meta.depth);
				}
			} else {
				Dsq.$('dsq-reply-' + id).style.display = 'none';
				Dsq.$('dsq-reply-bar-' + id).style.display = 'none';
			}
		} else {
			// DEPRECATED
			if(!this.stateReplyToggled[id]) {
				// Reply toolbar
				Dsq.$('dsq-reply-bar-' + id).style.display = 'block';
				Dsq.Iframes.showReplyIframeInContainerIfAllowed(Dsq.$('dsq-reply-' + id), id);
			} else {
				Dsq.$('dsq-reply-bar-' + id).style.display = 'none';
				Dsq.Iframes.hideAllInContainer(Dsq.$('dsq-reply-' + id));
				if(this.stateRecordLink[id]) {
					// HACK: Cancel media before canceling self.
					this.toggleMediaReply(Dsq.$('dsq-media-link-' + id), id);
				}
			}
		}

		this.stateReplyToggled[id] = !this.stateReplyToggled[id];
		this._updateReplyLinks(el, id);

		if(Dsq.Utils.ie) { Dsq.Utils.fixIframesIE('dsq-reply-' + id); }

		Dsq.Events.fire(Dsq.Events.REPLY_IFRAME_TOGGLED, {
			postId: id,
			opened: this.stateReplyToggled[id]
		});
	};

	this.toggleMediaReply = function(el, id, xtype) {
		id = id || 0;
		if(id) {
			var container = Dsq.$('dsq-reply-' + id);
		} else {
			var container = Dsq.$('dsq-post-add');
		}

		if(!this.stateRecordLink[id]) {
			Dsq.Iframes.showReplyIframeInContainer(container, id, {xtype:xtype}, 'dsq-post-video');
		} else {
			Dsq.Iframes.showReplyIframeInContainer(container, id);
		}
		this.stateRecordLink[id] = !this.stateRecordLink[id];
		this._updateMediaLinks(el, id);

		if(Dsq.Utils.ie) { Dsq.Utils.fixIframesIE(); }
	};

	this.edit = function(el, id) {
		Dsq.$('dsq-comment-message-' + id).innerHTML = Dsq.Templates.frameEdit(id);
		el.parentNode.style.display = 'none';
		if(Dsq.Utils.ie) { Dsq.Utils.fixIframesIE('dsq-comment-message-' + id); }
	};

    this.rate = function(el, id, vote) {
		if(Dsq.jsonData.request.is_authenticated || Dsq.jsonData.forum.allow_anon_votes) {
			if(vote == 1) {
                Dsq.$('dsq-rate-cont-' + id).innerHTML = '<img src="http://media.disqus.com/images/loading-small.gif">';
            }

            Dsq.Utils.execScript('http://disqus.com/forums/andrewmcafee/vote.js'
                + '?post_id='    + id
                + '&vote='        + vote);

		} else {
			Dsq.Popup.login(Dsq.Strings.TO_RATE_PLEASE_LOG_IN);
		}
    };

	this.report = function(id, confirmed) {
		if(confirmed) {
			Dsq.Utils.postToUrl('http://disqus.com/forums/andrewmcafee/a_case_for_prediction_markets/post_report/', {'post_id': id});
			Dsq.Popup.popModal('Thank you. This comment has been flagged for moderator attention.', 'Successfully flagged');
			Dsq.Utils.deleteNode(Dsq.$('dsq-post-report-' + id));
		} else {
			var title = Dsq.Strings.FLAG_INAPPROPRIATE_COMMENT;
			var message = Dsq.Strings.ARE_YOU_SURE_YOU_WOULD_LIKE_TO_REPORT_THIS_COMMENT_TO_A_MODERATOR + '? \
			<br /><br /> \
			<button onclick="Dsq.Popup._closePopup(null, true)"><strong>' + Dsq.Strings.NO + '</strong>, ' + Dsq.Strings.NEVER_MIND + '</button>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<button onclick="Dsq.Post.report(' + id + ', true);"><strong>' + Dsq.Strings.YES + '</strong>, ' + Dsq.Strings.FLAG_INAPPROPRIATE_COMMENT + '</button><br /><br />'
			+ Dsq.Strings.THIS_WILL_FLAG_COMMENTS_FOR_MODERATORS_TO_TAKE_ACTION + '. \
			';

			Dsq.Popup.popModal(message, title, id);
		}
	};



	this.showAlert = function(id, msg) {
		var msgEl = Dsq.$('dsq-comment-message-' + id);
		var alert = '<div class="dsq-comment-alert">' + msg + '</div>';

		msgEl.innerHTML = alert + msgEl.innerHTML;
	};

};
// Dsq.Post


/**
 * Dsq.Thread
 */
Dsq.Thread = new function() {
	this.fc = null;
	this.ff = null;
	this.ac = null;

	
	this.adminIsOn = false;

	
	
	

	this.hlComment = null;
	this.hlCommentClass = null;

	this.getNextComment = function(el) {
		var start_id = el.id;
		while(el = el.nextSibling) {
			if(el.id && el.id.indexOf('dsq-comment-') != -1 && el.id != start_id) {
				return el;
			}
		}
		return null;
	};

	this.getActiveCommentId = function() {
		if (document.URL.indexOf('#comment-') >= 0) {
			var anchor = document.URL.slice(document.URL.indexOf('#') + 1);
			return anchor.replace('comment-', '');
		}
		return null;
	};

	this.highlightAnchor = function() {
		var i = this.getActiveCommentId();
		if (i == null) return false;
		var id = 'dsq-comment-' + i;
		var hash = window.location.hash;

		// Toggle the hash incase the comment isn't available when the page loads
		// for WebKit-based browsers.
		if (Dsq.Utils.webkit) {
			window.location.hash = '';
			window.location.hash = hash;
		}

		this.hlComment = Dsq.$(id);
		// Adding this conditional guard pending #289
		if (!this.hlComment) {
			return;
		}
		this.hlCommentClass = this.hlComment.className;
		this.hlComment.className += ' dsq-hl-anchor';

		setTimeout("Dsq.Thread.highlightClear()", 3000);
	};

	this.highlightClear = function() {
		if (!this.hlComment) {
			return;
		}
		this.hlComment.className = this.hlCommentClass;
	};

	this.login = function(toggle) {
		// toggle id is #dsq-reply-login-[id]
		var postId;
		if(toggle.id.indexOf('dsq-reply-login') != -1) {
			postId = toggle.id.slice(16);
			var container = Dsq.$('dsq-reply-' + postId);
		} else {
			var container = Dsq.$('dsq-post-add');
		}

		if(toggle) {
			if(toggle.className == 'dsq-login-active') {
				Dsq.Iframes.showReplyIframeInContainerIfAllowed(container, postId);
				toggle.className = '';
			} else {
				Dsq.Iframes.showLoginIframeInContainer(container, postId);
				toggle.className = 'dsq-login-active';
			}
		} else {
			Dsq.Iframes.showLoginIframeInContainer(container, postId);
		}

		if(Dsq.Utils.ie) { Dsq.Utils.fixIframesIE(); }
	};


	this.paginate = function(page, el_clicked, per_page) {
		// Use extra_params to pass any override parameters that we need to persist.
		var extra_params = '';

		// "Per page" can either be overriden by providing it as an argument
		// (per-call) or setting the disqus_per_page override variable (global).
		if(typeof per_page == 'undefined') {
			per_page = null;
		}
		if(typeof disqus_per_page != 'undefined' && per_page === null) {
			per_page = disqus_per_page;
		}

		if(typeof disqus_sort != 'undefined') {
			extra_params += '&sort=' + disqus_sort;
		}
		if(per_page !== null) {
			extra_params += '&per_page=' + per_page;
		}

		Dsq.$('dsq-pagination').innerHTML += '<img src="http://media.disqus.com/images/loading-small.gif">';
		
		if(el_clicked) {
			el_clicked.style.display = 'none';
		}
		
		Dsq.Utils.execScript('http://disqus.com/forums/andrewmcafee/thread.js'
			+ '?slug='	+ 'a_case_for_prediction_markets'
			+ '&p='		+ page
			+ extra_params);
	};

	this.sortBy = function(sort) {
		var disqus_script = document.createElement('script');
		var disqus_date = new Date();

		if (location.hash != '') {
			location.hash = '#disqus_thread';
		}

		if(typeof(disqus_url) == 'undefined') {
			disqus_url = disqus_href;
		}
		disqus_script.type = 'text/javascript';
		disqus_script.src = 'http://disqus.com/forums/andrewmcafee/thread.js'
			+ '?slug='	+ 'a_case_for_prediction_markets'
			+ '&sort='	+ sort
			+ '&title='
			+ '&'		+ disqus_date.getTime();

		Dsq.$('dsq-comments').innerHTML = '<img src="http://media.disqus.com/images/loading.gif">';
		Dsq.container.appendChild(disqus_script);
	};

	this.subscribe = function(status, email) {
		// `status` is an int -- 1 to subscribe, 0 to unsubscribe
		if(Dsq.jsonData.request.is_authenticated || email) {
			// If authenticated user OR anonymous email provided

			if(email) {
				Dsq.Popup._closePopup(null, true);
			}

			Dsq.Utils.execScript('http://disqus.com/forums/andrewmcafee/subscribe.js'
				+'?status=' 	+ status
				+ '&slug='		+ 'a_case_for_prediction_markets'
				+ '&email=' 	+ encodeURIComponent(email));

		} else if(!email) {
			// If anonymous user and no email has been provided yet, prompt for email

			var title = 'Subscribe to this comment thread';
			var message = ' \
				New comments will be sent directly to your email inbox! \
				<div class="dsq-subscribe-submit"> \
					<p><strong>Enter your email address below.</strong></p> \
					<input type="text" id="dsq-subscribe-email"> \
					<button onclick="Dsq.Thread.subscribe(1, Dsq.$(\'dsq-subscribe-email\').value)">Subscribe</button> \
				</div> \
			';

			Dsq.Popup.popModal(message, title);
		}
	};

	this.showSettings = function() {
		if (!Dsq.jsonData.request.is_moderator) {
			return;
		}

		/* The form has to be re-designed when more options will come out. */
		var html = 'Automatically close comments after <input size="3" id="dsq-thread-days-alive" value="' + Dsq.jsonData.thread.days_alive + '" type="text" /> days. Existing comments will still be displayed.<br /><br />(Using 0 days will disable this feature)<br /><br />'
								 + '<button onclick="Dsq.Thread.updateDaysAlive();" class="dsq-button-small"><span>Save</span></button>'
								 + '<span id="dsq-thread-settings-status" class="dsq-options-status"></span>';
		Dsq.Popup.popModal(html, 'Settings');
	};

	this.updateDaysAlive = function() {
		var days = Dsq.$('dsq-thread-days-alive').value;
		var status = Dsq.$('dsq-thread-settings-status');
		Dsq.Utils.postToUrl('http://disqus.com/forums/andrewmcafee/update_days_alive.js', {days:days,thread:Dsq.jsonData.thread.id});
		status.innerHTML = 'Saved!';
		window.setTimeout(function() { status.innerHTML = ''; }, 1000);
	};
};
// Dsq.Thread

Dsq.Events = function() {
	var obj = {};

	// Private
	var handlers = {};
	var getHandlers = function(event) {
		if (handlers[event] === undefined) {
			handlers[event] = [];
		}
		return handlers[event];
	};

	// Public
	// Value keys : postId, node, xtype
	obj.REPLY_IFRAME_CREATED = 1;
	// Value keys : postId, opened
	obj.REPLY_IFRAME_TOGGLED = 2;
	obj.fire = function(event, opt_value) {
		if (!event) {
			throw new Error('Unknown event');
		}
		var value = opt_value || {};
		for (var i=0; i<getHandlers(event).length; i++) {
			getHandlers(event)[i](value);
		}
	};
	obj.addHandler = function(event, callback) {
		getHandlers(event).push(callback);
	};

	return obj;
}();

/**
 * Dsq.Realtime
 */
Dsq.Realtime = new function() {
	var initialized = false;
	var interval = null;
	var last_checked = Dsq.jsonData.request.timestamp;
	var new_posts = [];
	var ongoing_request = false;
	var prev_script = null;

	function updateNewPostCount() {
		Dsq.$('dsq-realtime-alert').style.display = new_posts.length ? 'block' : 'none';

		Dsq.$('dsq-realtime-queued').innerHTML = new_posts.length
		+ ' new '
		+ Dsq.Utils.pluralize(new_posts.length, 'comment', 'comments')
		+ Dsq.Utils.pluralize(new_posts.length, ' was', ' were')
		+ ' just posted.';

		Dsq.$('dsq-realtime-show').innerHTML = '(' + Dsq.Strings.SHOW + ')';
	}

	function insertNewPosts() {
		var post_id = null;
		var after_id = Dsq.$('dsq-sort-select').value === 'oldest' ? -1 : null;

		for (var i=0; i<new_posts.length; i++) {
			post_id = new_posts[i];
			Dsq.Post.insert(after_id, post_id, Dsq.jsonData.posts[post_id].message);
			Dsq.Post.incrementPostCount();
			Dsq.Post.outlineComment(post_id);
		}
		new_posts = [];
	}

	this.enableInterval = function() {
		interval = setInterval(Dsq.Realtime.check, Dsq.jsonData.context.realtime_speed);
		Dsq.$('dsq-realtime-status').innerHTML = Dsq.Strings.ENABLED;
		Dsq.$('dsq-realtime-toggle').innerHTML = '(' + Dsq.Strings.PAUSE + ')';
	}

	this.disableInterval = function() {
		if (interval) {
			clearInterval(interval);
			interval = null;
		}
		Dsq.$('dsq-realtime-status').innerHTML = Dsq.Strings.PAUSED;
		Dsq.$('dsq-realtime-toggle').innerHTML = '(' + Dsq.Strings.RESUME + ')';
	}

	this.toggleInterval = function() {
		if (!interval) {
			Dsq.Realtime.enableInterval();
		} else {
			Dsq.Realtime.disableInterval();
		}
		return false;
	}

	this.initialize = function() {
		if (!initialized) {
			initialized = true;
			Dsq.$('dsq-realtime-toggle').onclick = this.toggleInterval;
			if (!Dsq.jsonData.forum.streaming_realtime) {
				Dsq.$('dsq-realtime-show').onclick = this.show;
				updateNewPostCount();
			}
			if (Dsq.jsonData.thread.realtime_paused) {
				Dsq.Realtime.disableInterval();
			} else {
				Dsq.Realtime.enableInterval();
			}
		}
	}

	this.show = function() {
		insertNewPosts();
		updateNewPostCount();
		return false;
	}

	this.check = function() {
		if (!ongoing_request && Dsq.jsonData.realtime_enabled) {
			if (prev_script) {
				prev_script.parentNode.removeChild(prev_script);
			}
			ongoing_request = true;
			prev_script = Dsq.Utils.execScript('http://disqus.com/forums/10392594/realtime.js?timestamp=' + last_checked);
		}
	};

	this.update = function(timestamp, posts, users) {
		ongoing_request = false;
		last_checked = timestamp;

		if (users) {
			for (var user_id in users) {
				if (users.hasOwnProperty(user_id)) {
					if (!Dsq.jsonData.users[user_id]) {
						Dsq.jsonData.users[user_id] = users[user_id];
					}
				}
			}
		}

		if (posts) {
			for (var post_id in posts) {
				if (posts.hasOwnProperty(post_id)) {
					if (!Dsq.jsonData.posts[post_id]) {
						Dsq.jsonData.posts[post_id] = posts[post_id];
						new_posts.push(post_id);
					}
				}
			}

			if (Dsq.jsonData.forum.streaming_realtime) {
				insertNewPosts();
			} else {
				updateNewPostCount();
			}
		}
	};

}();

// DEPRECATED
Dsq.Iframes = function() {
	// Different style of object from the above. Hoping to switch to this for some reason.
	var obj = {};

	// Private
	var showIframeInContainer = function(container, id, markup) {
		// Look through container for iframes, hiding them, except show one that matches id
		// If none of them matched id, create a new iframe using markup and insert it.
		// Returns the iframe node if and only if it was newly created.
		var found = false;
		for (var i=0; i<container.childNodes.length; i++) {
			var child = container.childNodes[i];
			if (child.nodeName == 'IFRAME') {
				if (child.id == id) {
					child.style.display = 'block';
					found = true;
				} else {
					child.style.display = 'none';
				}
			}
		}
		if (found) {
			return;
		}
		// The iframe wasn't found, so construct it and add it to the container.
		// Don't use innerHTML because it might reload iframes
		var div = document.createElement('div');
		div.innerHTML = markup;
		var iframe = div.childNodes[0];
		div.removeChild(iframe);
		container.appendChild(iframe);
		return iframe;
	};

	// Public
	obj.makeReplyIframeId = function(opt_postId, opt_xtype) {
		var id = 'dsq-post-add-iframe';
		if (opt_xtype) {
			id += '-' + opt_xtype;
		}
		if (opt_postId) {
			id += '-' + opt_postId;
		}
		return id;
	};
	obj.makeLoginIframeId = function(opt_postId) {
		if (!opt_postId) {
			return 'dsq-login-iframe';
		}
		return 'dsq-login-iframe-' + opt_postId;
	};
	obj.makeReplyIframeName = function(opt_postId, opt_xtype) {
		var name = 'dsq-reply-frame';
		if (opt_xtype) {
			name += '-' + opt_xtype;
		}
		if (opt_postId) {
			name += '-' + opt_postId;
		}
		return name;
	};
	obj.showReplyIframeInContainer = function(container, opt_postId, opt_extraParams, opt_className) {
		// Construct the id so we can check if it's already present.
		// Hide any other iframes we find, and show this one if it's found.
		var params = opt_extraParams || {};
		// use xtype in the id and name so we can distinguish media replies from text replies:
		var id = Dsq.Iframes.makeReplyIframeId(opt_postId, params.xtype);
		var name = Dsq.Iframes.makeReplyIframeName(opt_postId, params.xtype);
		var attributes = {
			'id': id,
			'name': name,
			'class': opt_className || 'dsq-post-reply'
			};
		var markup = Dsq.Templates.frameReply(opt_postId, opt_extraParams, attributes);
		var iframe = showIframeInContainer(container, id, markup);
		// It was newly created
		if (iframe) {
			Dsq.Events.fire(Dsq.Events.REPLY_IFRAME_CREATED, {
				postId: opt_postId,
				node: iframe,
				xtype: params.xtype
			});
		}
	};
	obj.showLoginIframeInContainer = function(container, opt_postId) {
		var id = Dsq.Iframes.makeLoginIframeId(opt_postId);
		var markup = Dsq.Templates.frameLogin({id: id});
		showIframeInContainer(container, id, markup);
	};
	obj.showReplyIframeInContainerIfAllowed = function(container, opt_postId) {
		if (Dsq.jsonData.context.show_reply) {
			obj.showReplyIframeInContainer(container, opt_postId);
		} else {
			obj.hideAllInContainer(container);
		}
	};
	obj.hideAllInContainer = function(container) {
		for (var i=0; i<container.childNodes.length; i++) {
			var child = container.childNodes[i];
			if (child.nodeName == 'IFRAME') {
				child.style.display = 'none';
			}
		}
	};

	return obj;
}();

Dsq.Twitter = new function() {
	var that = this;

	this.startTwitterConnect = function() {
		var popupParams = 'location=0,status=0,width=800,height=400';
		that._twitterWindow = window.open(Dsq.jsonData.settings.disqus_url + '/_ax/twitter/begin/', 'twitterWindow', popupParams);
		that._twitterInterval = window.setInterval(that.completeTwitterConnect, 1000);
	};

	this.completeTwitterConnect = function() {
		if (that._twitterWindow.closed) {
			window.clearInterval(that._twitterInterval);
			window.location.reload();
		}
	};
};

Dsq.Yahoo = new function() {
	var that = this;

	this.startYahooConnect = function() {
		var popupParams = 'location=0,status=0,width=800,height=400';
		that._yahooWindow = window.open(Dsq.jsonData.settings.disqus_url + '/_ax/yahoo/begin/', 'yahooWindow', popupParams);
		that._yahooInterval = window.setInterval(that.completeYahooConnect, 1000);
	};

	this.completeYahooConnect = function() {
		if (that._yahooWindow.closed) {
			window.clearInterval(that._yahooInterval);
			window.location.reload();
		}
	};
};

Dsq.OpenID = new function() {
	var that = this;

	this.requestURL = function() {
		var message = '<table class="dsq-openid-form"><tr><td style="vertical-align:top;" rowspan="2"><img src="' + Dsq.jsonData.settings.media_url + '/images/openid-icon-100x100.png" /></td>';
		message += '<td><label for="dsq-openid-url">OpenID URL:</label></td><td><input type="text" id="dsq-openid-url" /></td></tr>';
		message += '<tr><td><label for="dsq-openid-username">Display name:</label></td><td><input type="text" id="dsq-openid-username" /></td></tr>';
		message += '<tr><td class="dsq-openid-submit" colspan="3"><input type="button" value="Sign in" onclick="Dsq.OpenID.startConnect();" /></td></tr>';
		message += "</table>";

		Dsq.Popup.popModal(message, 'Sign in using OpenID');
	};

	this.startConnect = function() {
		var isblank = function(str) {
			return /^\s*$/.test(str);
		};

		var openid_url = Dsq.$('dsq-openid-url').value;
		var username = Dsq.$('dsq-openid-username').value;

		if (isblank(openid_url)) {
			return;
		}

		var popupParams = 'location=0,status=0,width=800,height=500';
		var url = Dsq.jsonData.settings.disqus_url + '/_ax/openid/begin/' + '?url=' + encodeURIComponent(openid_url) + '&username=' + encodeURIComponent(username);
		that._openidWindow = window.open(url, 'openidWindow', popupParams);
		that._openidInterval = window.setInterval(that.completeConnect, 1000);
	};

	this.completeConnect = function() {
		if (that._openidWindow.closed) {
			window.clearInterval(that._openidInterval);
			window.location.reload();
		}
	};
};

Dsq.Reaction = new function() {
	var that = this;

	this.hide = function(id) {
		Dsq.Utils.execScript('http://disqus.com/forums/andrewmcafee/hidereaction.js?' + 'reaction_id=' + id);
	};

	this.reportMissingReactions = function() {
		if (!Dsq.jsonData.request.is_moderator || !Dsq.jsonData.forum.reactions_enabled) {
			return;
		}

		if (Dsq.jsonData.thread.queued) {
			Dsq.Popup.popModal('Your report has been received. The system will automatically search for new reactions; if any are found, they will be displayed on this comment thread.<br/><br/>Thank&nbsp;you.',
												 'Reported missing reactions');
			return;
		}

		Dsq.Utils.execScript(Dsq.jsonData.settings.disqus_url + '/forums/andrewmcafee/queueurl.js');
	};
};

Dsq.CNN = function() {
	var obj = {};

	obj.authenticate = function() {
		var url = Dsq.jsonData.settings.disqus_url + "/saml/cnn/try/";
		Dsq.Utils.postToUrl(url, {'target': document.location}, true);
	};

	return obj;
}();


if(Dsq.Utils.ie6) {
	(function() {
		DSQ_HEADER_AVATAR_RE = /<div class="dsq-header-avatar"(.*?)>/gim;
		Dsq.Templates.registerFilter('postPrependHeader', function(html, post_id) {
			// Add "onmouseout" for dsq-header-avatar for dropProfile
			// functionality since IE6 cannot use :hover.
			function _headerAvatarReplace(content, inner, _unused, html) {
				return '<div class="dsq-header-avatar" '
					+ inner
					+ ' onmouseout="Dsq.Post.dropProfile(' + post_id + ')">';
			}
			html = html.replace(DSQ_HEADER_AVATAR_RE, _headerAvatarReplace);
			return html;
		});
	})();
}









(function() {
	//
	// Load theme.  This overrides the base templates with template functions
	// from the respective themes.
	//
	if (Dsq.jsonData.integration.theme == 4) {
		var theme = 'narcissus';
		// HACK: Set variable on window to use post message.
		window.disqus_use_postmessage = true;

		
		for(var prop in Dsq.Themes[theme]) {
			if(Dsq.Themes[theme] && Dsq.Themes[theme].hasOwnProperty(prop)) {
				Dsq.Templates[prop] = Dsq.Themes[theme][prop];
			}
		}
		
		for(var prop in Dsq.Post) {
			if(Dsq.Themes[theme] && Dsq.Themes[theme].hasOwnProperty(prop)) {
				Dsq.Post[prop] = Dsq.Themes[theme][prop];
			}
		}
	}

	//
	// Register templates.  This must be done after all themes are loaded.
	//
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('authPost', Dsq.Templates.authPost);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('header', Dsq.Templates.header);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('footer', Dsq.Templates.footer);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('trackbacks', Dsq.Templates.trackbacks);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('reactions', Dsq.Templates.reactions);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('prependPost', Dsq.Templates.prependPost);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('appendPost', Dsq.Templates.appendPost);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('postPrependHeader', Dsq.Templates.postPrependHeader);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('postAppendHeader', Dsq.Templates.postAppendHeader);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('preBody', Dsq.Templates.preBody);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('postBody', Dsq.Templates.postBody);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('postFooter', Dsq.Templates.postFooter);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('_popupGeneric', Dsq.Templates._popupGeneric);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('voted', Dsq.Templates.voted);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('popupProfile', Dsq.Templates.popupProfile);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('postBox', Dsq.Templates.postBox);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('pagination', Dsq.Templates.pagination);
	Dsq.Templates.registerTemplate('postComment_onSuccess', Dsq.Templates.postComment_onSuccess);

})();

Dsq.container.className = "clearfix";
Dsq.container.innerHTML = ' \
<ul id="dsq-comments">\
	 <li id="dsq-comment-23650977">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-header-23650977" class="dsq-comment-header">\
	 <cite id="dsq-cite-23650977" class="dsq-comment-cite">\
	 <span id="dsq-author-user-23650977">randomopinion</span>\
	 </cite>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-body-23650977" class="dsq-comment-body">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-message-23650977" class="dsq-comment-message">Not knowing anything more about prediction markets than what I read here, I can say investing in prediction markets sound a whole heck of a lot like ordinary sports betting/gambling. It sounds like a person may be just as safe (maybe more) betting on professional sports spreads than these "prediction markets," because it would seem a heck of a lot easier for a company to manipulate when and how it would release a product--a company, I would think, has a great deal of control over the release of its products, for example, whereas a boxer may be more prepared than his opponant and winning a fight but goes down from a lucky shot. At least in professional sports nowadays, this kind of "fixing" much seems less likely to happen. Random thought, but I really am confused...</div>\
	 </div>\
	 </li>\
	 <li id="dsq-comment-8465286">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-header-8465286" class="dsq-comment-header">\
	 <cite id="dsq-cite-8465286" class="dsq-comment-cite">\
	 <a id="dsq-author-user-8465286" href="http://www.itsinsider.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">itsinsider</a>\
	 </cite>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-body-8465286" class="dsq-comment-body">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-message-8465286" class="dsq-comment-message">Just writing about Spigit, which has a nice prediction market capability to harvest employee intelligence and forecast likely successes for enterprise initiatives.  Check it out: <a href="http://www.spigit.com/products/predmarket.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.spigit.com/products/predmarket.html</a>  (Just a cool product, I\'m not affiliated.)</div>\
	 </div>\
	 </li>\
	 <li id="dsq-comment-5487445">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-header-5487445" class="dsq-comment-header">\
	 <cite id="dsq-cite-5487445" class="dsq-comment-cite">\
	 <a id="dsq-author-user-5487445" href="http://www.stockmarketfunding.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">stock trading</a>\
	 </cite>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-body-5487445" class="dsq-comment-body">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-message-5487445" class="dsq-comment-message">I think the problem we have with prediction markets is that they are more like the options market than the stock market. I think the problem with getting the needed liquidity is found with the fact that it\'s a probability game which generally means the house wins. I do think that the social prediction markets has given way to new opportunities through niche opportunities. People feel they can invest in something they understand or have above average changes of knowing the outcome where the average person likely feels they have no idea what the stock market will do on any given day.</div>\
	 </div>\
	 </li>\
	 <li id="dsq-comment-5487447">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-header-5487447" class="dsq-comment-header">\
	 <cite id="dsq-cite-5487447" class="dsq-comment-cite">\
	 <a id="dsq-author-user-5487447" href="http://www.mogs.com/dofus-kamas" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Dofus Kama</a>\
	 </cite>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-body-5487447" class="dsq-comment-body">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-message-5487447" class="dsq-comment-message">Companies that are looking to use prediction markets in their business need to build a business case for doing so.In order to build that case, they need to determine what information can a market efficiently provide, and how can that improve their strategy and day-to-day operations?I like to address three main question areas that prediction markets can solve, and how you can start developing a business case based on the results of the improved forecasting.<br><br>The first, and perhaps most powerful, is project management.<br><br>Every project has various key milestones, and those on the critical path are even more visible to and closely watched by managers and executives.Most forecasting to date is largely self-reported by team leaders.They are largely meant to be as honest as possible in reporting project status.In reality, this is highly dependent on the company\'s culture, and in far too many businesses, project status is a commonly-known lie.(Unfortunately, this also means that it can be a politically dangerous kind of market to implement, since the project managers that tell these lies usually don\'t want to be exposed!)<br><br>The business case for a prediction market in project management should be calculated based on the effects of slips in a project\'s schedule.For projects or products where sales are front-loaded (such as films, major software releases, ground-breaking new drugs, and the like) a projects slip into the next fiscal quarter or next fiscal year could cause a serious impact in potential earnings.If that information was available weeks or months earlier, how would that affect sales, reputation in the marketplace, and other factors important in your industry?How much does it cost to plan for a major product roll-out in January, only to have to cancel it all and do it all over again in April?These are the questions that can build a business case for a project management prediction market.<br><br>The second type of market quantifies your industry.<br><br>In many industries, this means defining the cost of goods needing to be purchased, the quantity of goods or services to be sold, or the price potential of the goods or services to be sold.In some industries, this could mean quantifying the user growth of a given product.(Such as Google\'s prediction markets, How many users of [Google product] will we have at the end of Q3?]  This is the  classic case written about by HP\'s research center, when they asked their traders to predict sales figures for various products for the next quarter.It turned out they were measurably better than the forecasting system they had been using.<br><br>Quantifying a business case here is generally more computational, and therefore more straightforward.What are your costs associated with inventory of products that you can\'t sell because you thought there was more demand?How much less revenue do you earn because you have to discount products to move them out the door?Alternately, what are your costs associated with paying extra to ramp up capacity because you didn\'t realise the demand was as big as it was?How many lost sales did you experience because of empty shelves?These numbers are concrete and can hit your companyÃ¢Â€Â™s bottom line.They can sometimes be the easiest way to prove your business case.<br><br>The third type of prediction market I want to discuss quantifies risk.</div>\
	 </div>\
	 </li>\
	 <li id="dsq-comment-5487446">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-header-5487446" class="dsq-comment-header">\
	 <cite id="dsq-cite-5487446" class="dsq-comment-cite">\
	 <a id="dsq-author-user-5487446" href="http://www.atlanticcity.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Techitrout</a>\
	 </cite>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-body-5487446" class="dsq-comment-body">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-message-5487446" class="dsq-comment-message">Prediction markets are not quiet, are not subtle but a blunt instrument.They produce a straightforward, simple answer to a straightforward questionÂ—with a big public splat.</div>\
	 </div>\
	 </li>\
	 <li id="dsq-comment-5487449">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-header-5487449" class="dsq-comment-header">\
	 <cite id="dsq-cite-5487449" class="dsq-comment-cite">\
	 <a id="dsq-author-user-5487449" href="http://www.openrangeanthropologist.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Mary Walker</a>\
	 </cite>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-body-5487449" class="dsq-comment-body">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-message-5487449" class="dsq-comment-message">Catching up on my blog reading...<br><br>Based on my conversations, there are a number of obstacles at present re: prediction markets in corps: <br><br>- most execs I talk with aren\'t familiar with prediction markets. Whereas everybody\'s heard of social networks, blogs, and wikis (even though a lot of people still aren\'t quite sure what a wiki is). <br><br>- prediction markets are a more difficult concept to understand (vs social networks, blogs, wikis).  Thus significant education is required for execs and end-users. More education = bigger time suck thus lower ROI & opportunity cost.  <br><br>- the prediction market biz process is more complex and more integrated into existing decisions/processes, than is the process required to implement/support social networks/blogs/wikis. What outcome will be forecasted; what end-users will participate; what\'s the timing/schedule/due date; who will report the results and to what audiences; how will results be integrated into existing biz processes; etc. Again = more work, greater time sink, greater risk, lower ROI.  <br><br>- there aren\'t yet enough corporate examples of successful prediction market use.  Google and Microsoft have shared their experiences publicly; but those two are not seen by most companies as a realistic example for their own organizations. <br><br>We\'re definitely pre-chasm on prediction markets for corp use (whereas social networks are post chasm -- much wider adoption). <br><br>And here\'s the fundamental problem with prediction markets, IMO: the democratic, collective, participative nature of prediction markets comes into direct conflict with the hierarchical nature and existing communications patterns of most organizations. <br><br>Organizations are about the allocation of decision-making rights. Power is based upon who/what group has the authority/ability to make a decision. (Yes decisions can be subverted...but the official decision does matter in a very real way, even when it\'s not implemented effectively.) <br><br>Also, leadership (formal or informal) in any organization is very much about communication and dialectics: what information is provided to whom, what context and meaning is assigned to that information by the speaker, which points are emphasized and which are de-emphasized, etc. <br><br>Well crafted communications are key to productive dialogue and decision-making. Poorly crafted communications can be a major obstacle and even derail issues permanently. There\'s an enormous effort in organizations put into crafting effective communications. Yes, some of this is BS/spin....but some of it is legitimate communications work to communicate effectively between different constituencies/audiences. <br><br>Prediction markets pose a direct challenge to both of these (decision authority and well crafted communications). <br><br>Prediction markets second-guess the official management opinion/decision.  And by engaging a wide group of people, the pred market sends a meta-message that everybody\'s opinion is just as good as anybody else\'s. It also implies that any answer that differs from the collective wisdom is inherently \'wrong\' in some way.  <br><br>Also, like all-hands meetings and employee surveys -- prediction markets are a collective group experience. And that is different from the ongoing efforts of managers to balance out many complex issues between their organization and others, and tailoring their communications for those various contexts. <br><br>For example, there can be many reasons why a manager\'s "official" forecast/prediction is modulated and differs from a group collective opinion. But those those nuances of social dynamics aren\'t accounted for, with a prediction market. <br><br>That is PM\'s strength -- the direct unmodulated answer -- but within an orgnanization/social dynamic, that\'s also a problem. <br><br>Prediction markets aren\'t quiet. They aren\'t subtle. They are a blunt instrument -- they produce a straightforward, simple answer to a straightforward question -- with a big public splat. <br><br>It\'s not about the specific answer per se. It\'s the bigger social context: of collectively and publicly involving a wide group of people in an issue that previously involved a select group only; the expectation that employees now have, for engagement and responsiveness and dialogue, after being asked to give their opinion. <br><br>Look at the angst that employee surveys and all-hands meetings can cause for management -- and that\'s for mechanisms that have been in use for decades and for which there is a lot of knowledge about how to use them effectively. And managers still stress over them. <br><br>Anything that stirs up collective action among employees is worrisome to managers. So it\'s no wonder that prediction markets, being a brand new democratic/collective mechanism, would cause a lot of anxiety and resistance among managers.</div>\
	 </div>\
	 </li>\
	 <li id="dsq-comment-5487448">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-header-5487448" class="dsq-comment-header">\
	 <cite id="dsq-cite-5487448" class="dsq-comment-cite">\
	 <a id="dsq-author-user-5487448" href="http://overseasjobs.tripigg.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Kevin Smith</a>\
	 </cite>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-body-5487448" class="dsq-comment-body">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-message-5487448" class="dsq-comment-message">Several corporate executives, I have worked with, are much more comfortable with conceptual reasoning and analysis of historic data, than use quantitative methods for predicting future result of their decisions</div>\
	 </div>\
	 </li>\
	 <li id="dsq-comment-5487453">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-header-5487453" class="dsq-comment-header">\
	 <cite id="dsq-cite-5487453" class="dsq-comment-cite">\
	 <a id="dsq-author-user-5487453" href="http://www.bitinsight.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Patrick McHugh</a>\
	 </cite>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-body-5487453" class="dsq-comment-body">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-message-5487453" class="dsq-comment-message">As noted in a recent article in Inside Knowledge Magazine, the number of companies that have implemented an internal prediction market is modest (lower bound was in the 30s as of 2006, although growing rapidly).  Feedback from companies utilizing prediction markets has identified critical deployment considerations, including trader knowledge, question/security design, and trader participation however the limited trials and low adoption rate of prediction markets indicates that resistance to their use pre-dates these deployment considerations.  <br><br>Tom Davenport, a Professor as Babson College, has identified traditional hierarchical organizations as a major obstacle to the use of prediction markets (as well as trader participation once deployed).  At BitInsight (<a href="http://www.bitinsight.com" rel="nofollow">www.bitinsight.com</a>), a consulting firm utilizing prediction markets as part of a decision support service, our experience would concur with this organizational resistance.  The resistance ranges from disbelief in the process, concerns about data leakage, concerns about the impact on current business processes, and concerns that the process will Â“undermine managementÂ” (to use the words of Microsoft in their presentation on their prediction market, PredictionPoint at the recent Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets).<br><br>By definition prediction markets are highly visible and if not carefully managed can be controversial, note the furor over DARPAÂ’s terrorism futures market.  This visibility adds to the personal risk from failure and precludes Â“skunk workÂ” executions in most cases.  The (ideally for many questions) cross organizational nature of the trading pool also adds organizational obstacles to market introduction.  <br><br>Prediction markets are the data mining tool to access the unstructured data stored in the enterpriseÂ’s distributed human capital (broadly defined).  It provides another source of data to be considered and leveraged; it does not, per se, make or even recommend any decisions to the corporation.   Defining the tool as such may make it more palatable to senior management whose buy-in and support are absolutely critical to successful trial and on-going incorporation of this technique within the enterpriseÂ’s business processes.</div>\
	 </div>\
	 </li>\
	 <li id="dsq-comment-5487452">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-header-5487452" class="dsq-comment-header">\
	 <cite id="dsq-cite-5487452" class="dsq-comment-cite">\
	 <a id="dsq-author-user-5487452" href="http://www.cubeless.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Malcolm Kass</a>\
	 </cite>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-body-5487452" class="dsq-comment-body">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-message-5487452" class="dsq-comment-message">Oh, by the way, both Sox sux.  Go Cubs!</div>\
	 </div>\
	 </li>\
	 <li id="dsq-comment-5487450">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-header-5487450" class="dsq-comment-header">\
	 <cite id="dsq-cite-5487450" class="dsq-comment-cite">\
	 <a id="dsq-author-user-5487450" href="http://www.cubeless.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Malcolm Kass</a>\
	 </cite>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-body-5487450" class="dsq-comment-body">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-message-5487450" class="dsq-comment-message">Not that I have any deep rooted concerns on this topic, but I thought I might play devil\'s advocate.<br><br>"Is it that companies donÂ’t really want the most accurate information about future events to come out and be widely known?"<br><br>Why I think companies may be right to be cool towards predictive markets: <br><br>1st:  An information market at a company is probably not efficient, (I know that the article claims that the Google market is "reasonable efficient", but so was Thailand\'s currency market before George Soros) and at best, the predictive market at a company is the weak form of market efficiency where the current price is reflective of the historical series of events.  Way too much room for manipulation in a market like this. <br><br>2nd:  Time value of money:  The instances when having an accurate prediction is worthwhile is when the stock value is at "$1" not at "$80".  Sure, I can very accurately predict when a movie ends when the credits roll, but I am a poor predictor when I am watching the trailers.  The problem is that businesses need accurate predictions during the trailers, not during the credits. <br><br>3:  Relationship of the outcome significance to the prediction market performance: <br><br>It is one thing to predict the if a new product will meet sales goals in yr 1, it is quite another to predict the success of breakthrough products like the ipod.    Why my concern?  I look to physics.  The biggest shakeup in physics over the last 300 years was the theory of relativity.  Problem, when Einstein developed the theory, scientists were almost universal in predicting the theory to be wrong/incorrect as compared to Newtonian physics.  Well, they were wrong.  Granted, this point doesn\'t dismiss predictive markets, but it does make me wonder how effective they really will be?<br><br>Having mention the above, if predictive markets do work, I certainly can foresee a time when companies, as a work performance measure, provide their employees with equal amounts of Goobles and have their employee\'s bet away.  The most successful will be evaluated and cultured for positions in strategic thinking roles within the firm.  Interesting</div>\
	 </div>\
	 </li>\
	 <li id="dsq-comment-5487451">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-header-5487451" class="dsq-comment-header">\
	 <cite id="dsq-cite-5487451" class="dsq-comment-cite">\
	 <a id="dsq-author-user-5487451" href="http://www.openteams.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Tory</a>\
	 </cite>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-body-5487451" class="dsq-comment-body">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-message-5487451" class="dsq-comment-message">I think the wisdom of crowds concept is great, and I think prediction markets make sense for external events, but I wonder about conflicts of interest on internal event betting.  If you\'re betting against a project being on time (or betting for it to come in at a later date), don\'t you have an incentive to "slow roll" any requests that come your way from that project?  Or worse if you\'re actually a member of that project?  <br><br>And think of the political games that could get played if someone wanted to make another team look like it was failing by betting heavily against their metrics?  Panicked execs saying "Well, the market says your project is going to be a train wreck..."<br><br>Professional sports has dealt with this problem for a very long time.  It\'s obviously a big no-no to have players betting on - or especially against - their own team.</div>\
	 </div>\
	 </li>\
	 <li id="dsq-comment-5487454">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-header-5487454" class="dsq-comment-header">\
	 <cite id="dsq-cite-5487454" class="dsq-comment-cite">\
	 <span id="dsq-author-user-5487454">BobP</span>\
	 </cite>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-body-5487454" class="dsq-comment-body">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-message-5487454" class="dsq-comment-message">Hi Professor - I have hit many roadblocks at my company, which actually you and I spoke about a few months ago.  Here\'s an overview of what I have encountered, in no particular order...<br><br>1) The myriad usage scenarios within an enterprise actually makes it harder to get the investment necessary to try prediction markets.  Why?  There is reluctance to take the risk yourself when there are benefits for the enterprise as a whole.  In other words, if it has that much potential, someone higher up the food chain should fund it.  This isn\'t merely a funding issue, however.  It\'s also a measurement issue.  Very few people are given a target metric for anything that doesn\'t fit neatly into the balance sheet, with managing quarterly expenses at (or near) the top of the list.  Naturally this leads to the opinion that if it\'s not being measured, it\'s not a priority.  We acknowledge this needs to change, but gaining agreement on what those new metrics should be is a big hurdle unto itself.<br>My point here is that, at least initially, it likely would be easier to find a sponsor if the business case was more targeted, which is what I\'m trying to do now.<br><br>2) Despite all the press regarding how accurate prediction markets are, there is a great deal of skepticism regarding their accuracy for our company, or where specifically they would be most accurate.  If we pilot the technology in the wrong area, or otherwise don\'t set up the markets properly, the whole thing could get the hook quickly.<br><br>3) The ROI is not immediate, nor is it necessarily quantifiable as part of the initial business case.      We can cite how terrible most companies are at forecasting or decision-making in various areas, but we really need our own \'forecasted vs. actuals\' historical data as a starting point.  Gathering that data from various business units is quite a chore to say the least.  We also need to run traditional methodologies and prediction markets concurrently to see how the results match up.<br><br>4) Despite the ROI extending beyond forecast accuracy to areas such as social networking, knowledge management and information flow, these benefits are less tangible.  I believe this will change over time, but most of the companies that have even deployed social software still are not doing real social network analysis...they\'re just trying to increase collaboration and team productivity.  Their ability to gain insight from the underlying data is far down the road, when they\'ll wake up one morning and realize that Enterprise 2.0 and Business Intelligence have converged (with ROI more readily apparent). <br>              <br>5) Social software adoption is already an issue, so there is concern regarding the participation level necessary to make the markets as accurate as possible.  Aside from the usual inhibitors to the adoption of new tools, the concepts of online reputation, digital identity, virtual currency and overall openness are novel to most employees.  There is reluctance to contribute in any form, via any medium, without maintaining anonymity.<br><br>6) Assuming the CIO and/or IT Dept makes all funding decisions for internal technology deployments, prediction markets would have to show greater business value than the approved/funded projects currently in plan.  So this gets back to the ROI issue (and points to the potential scenario of using prediction markets as part of that same IT funding/planning process).<br><br>7) Traditional methodologies for forecasting and decision-making are well within the comfort zone of most executives.  Even when they are willing to try other methods, those experiments are very controlled and merely supplement the formal methodology.  It is believed that instinct plays factor as well, but not just anyone\'s instinct (that\'s crazy talk).<br>Also, there is limited quantitative data on prediction market accuracy for longer term events.  So any businesses which try to produce mid-term to long-term forecasts would take a higher risk, have to compensate for market liquidity issues, etc.  Still a worthwhile exercise, however, in my opinion. <br><br>8) Prediction market results which conflict with or undermine project status reporting, for example, would potentially give managers and executives less decision-making power and less credibility.  If managers administered the market themselves, and made the necessary adjustments early enough, I think this concern would be mitigated.  Today, however, self-preservation is a big factor, often at the expense of the larger organization...and credibility could go out the window anyway.      <br>    <br>9) If the enterprise happens to be an E2.0 software vendor ("I have this \'friend\'...") then there is the build vs. buy vs. partner issue, strategic fit, line-of-business ownership, go-to-market strategy, etc. <br><br>Despite these and other obstacles (like that pesky day job), I\'m continuing to promote prediction markets all over the corporation, and have built up quite a bit of interest.  I\'m not stopping until I find an executive sponsor or receive a rational explanation as to why we will not pursue the topic further.  <br><br>Frankly, I don\'t think a rational explanation exists.  Then again, corporate decisions aren\'t always rational, which brings us back full circle.    <br><br>Happy to discuss further if you\'d like...<br><br>BP<br><br>(Go Sox!)</div>\
	 </div>\
	 </li>\
	 <li id="dsq-comment-5487455">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-header-5487455" class="dsq-comment-header">\
	 <cite id="dsq-cite-5487455" class="dsq-comment-cite">\
	 <a id="dsq-author-user-5487455" href="http://www.evolutionofbpr.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">GregoryY</a>\
	 </cite>\
	 </div>\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-body-5487455" class="dsq-comment-body">\
	 <div id="dsq-comment-message-5487455" class="dsq-comment-message">I have come to conclusion that availability and quality of management tools greatly exceed ability of corporate managers to use them productively. Many corporate executives, I have worked with, are much more comfortable with conceptual reasoning and analysis of historic data, than use quantitative methods for predicting future outcome of their decisions. Perhaps it has something to do with a fear of accountability, but they seem to treat forecasting as a matter of "art" rather than "science".</div>\
	 </div>\
	 </li>\
	 </ul>\
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