Disqus - Latest Comments for richardsteckis

Re: Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature

richardsteckis — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 02:39:01 -0000

"I don't see these guys paying out on Rahmstorf, so who's the hypocrite."

That is because Rahmstorf is one of the "team". I have never seen Tamino or RC pay out on one of their own and I guess I never will.

Re: Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature

richardsteckis — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 01:51:06 -0000

I have read the paper. McLean made a defence comment at Tamino's site and received a cursory accusation of being a liar, amongst other things. Grant Foster (Tamino) says that he will be submitting a comment to JGR.

I think it is up to the authors to defend their paper. However, they will never convince committed warmists such as Tamino and the Team (RC). I think their mathematics could have been better audited (although Craig Lohele did advise them).

Re: Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature

richardsteckis — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 01:09:25 -0000

I see that the McLean et. al. paper is receiving a hammering at RC. They call it atrocious. But no one seems to be rushing to the word processing software to write a rebuttal for publication in the literature.

Re: Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature

richardsteckis — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 10:54:01 -0000

Cohenite says:

"If this is plausible can someone go and tell Tamino because his gloating is not pleasant."

I have been banned from Tamino's because I dared to differ from his polemical view of AGW. Tamino has been caught out a number of times by myself so it is likely he is wrong in his assessment of the McClean et. al. paper. He only has a small coterie of avid supporters (he has managed to alienate or ban anyone with a thinking brain) and he is largely irrelevant.

Re: Swanson and Tsonis 2009 on Regime-shifts

richardsteckis — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 08:57:36 -0000

Thanks for your input. I too am not a statistician (I am a fishery biologist) so am still finding my way with this stuff.

Re: Swanson and Tsonis 2009 on Regime-shifts

richardsteckis — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 08:55:51 -0000

Thanks. I will look into this a bit further. I am somewhat new to the Chow test and so will take you advice on board.

Re: Swanson and Tsonis 2009 on Regime-shifts

richardsteckis — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 07:05:49 -0000

cohenite,

I do not think these structural breaks (as determined by the Chow test) represent step functions, so much as changes in power and slope of a trend in a time series.

The accumulation of heat may have nothing to do with CO2 and probably doesn't. It is possible that rapid succession events may such as the ones I described may power warming episodes such as those of the Roman Climate Optimum and the Medieval Warm Period.

Re: Swanson and Tsonis 2009 on Regime-shifts

richardsteckis — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 03:02:22 -0000

My apologies. I have just posted it and it is still awaiting moderation (hopefully they will let it through. It is a bit of a lottery with RC). I have included the text below:

"149.
Richard Steckis says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
15 July 2009 at 12:33 AM

You identified a breakpoint in the dataset at 1997. I analysed the HadCRUt3 simplified dataset (monthly data http://hadobs.metoffice.com... and identified three breakpoints in the dataset one at 1977, one at 1986 and the breakpoint at 1997. This was using the strucchange package in R. The 1977 breakpoint can be explained by a paper by McGuirk (Planetary-Scale Forcing of the January 1977 Weather, Science 199:4326 293-295 1978). The 1986 and 1997 breakpoints both coincide with El Nino events.

My hypothesis is that each of these are cumulative adding one on the other. Much of the observed warming from 1977 through to now may be a result of this cumulative effect where the next event caused more heat to be added to the system before the heat from the previous event radiatively dissipated.
150.
Richard Steckis says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
15 July 2009 at 12:52 AM

With regard to my analyses described above. I used the HadCRUt3 data from 1950 to present. This is the same period used the first graph."

Regards

Re: Swanson and Tsonis 2009 on Regime-shifts

richardsteckis — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 01:45:08 -0000

Hi David,

Could you please review my comment at RC and tell me what you think about my logic. This is regarding the Swanson and Tsonis regime shift paper.

http://www.realclimate.org/...