Disqus - Latest Comments for pythagoruz

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/07/phrases_meriting_capital_punishment.htm

pythagoruz — Thu, 07 May 2009 13:09:32 -0000

"It will be different this time"

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/04/19/the_game_is_about_to_end.htm

pythagoruz — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 15:20:20 -0000

Nice pic

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/04/05/sunday_intermission.htm

pythagoruz — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 12:18:27 -0000

Yeah, Don Hertzfeldt is the man. Have you seen his Rejected?

http://www.youtube.com/watc...

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/29/tis_but_a_scratch.htm

pythagoruz — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 14:04:36 -0000

Lol Tim. Yeah, I'm an eagle scout as well but I know that sometimes bandaids are not enough!!

When I was a kid I had two broken arms, a broken collar bone and needed CPR twice.

The only upside is the crazy medication they pump you up with while they try and fix you...

http://www.youtube.com/watc...

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/25/back_in_black.htm

pythagoruz — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 01:18:38 -0000

You'd loose 75% of your readership with a fee, including myself.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/25/back_in_black.htm

pythagoruz — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 01:17:52 -0000

A doji, like the one in your chart, is typically more of an indication of indecision than of reversal. It means that price moved around alot but ended up where it started. Although a dragonfly or gravestone doji might be interpreted as a reversal candle by some.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/25/did_the_market_tip_its_hand.htm

pythagoruz — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 18:06:25 -0000

Plunge protection team

http://en.wikipedia.org/wik...

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/25/did_the_market_tip_its_hand.htm

pythagoruz — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 18:05:47 -0000

I don't know if it was the fed in there directly buying up the S&P, although they were buying treasuries today. 7.5$B of them in fact, sold and bought by the US government! But the PPT would have every reason to prop the market today. Technically 800 was failing and failed moves lead to fast moves. A close below 800 would takes us down to 700 in days, imo. Second, the treasury was selling $34B in bonds today which yielded a higher than anticipated yield. In other words, no one wants to buy their stimulus debt, demand for treasuries was weak. Thats what led to the selloff, and that's how the headlines of the day were being written:

"Stocks give up gains and close below key 800 level after Treasury auction failed"

The treasury is selling bonds this week, the federal reserve is buying them, and they both want the lowest yield on these things as possible (to encourage risk taking). Since they don't want this to look like yet another failed attempt by the government to save us, the PPT has every reason to keep the markets looking strong here. Especially with more bond buying/selling by the feds later this week.

There's also the fact that anyone watching the tape this afternoon noticed an obvious and marked attempt to prop up the closing price. That of course stinks of the PPT. Question is, do they know the GDP/unemployment numbers?

Re: It took one such a day...

pythagoruz — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 18:18:31 -0000

Whether or not he went short today, Atilla described today's candlesticks yesterday. For that I give him kudo's for a nice call.

Re: It took one such a day...

pythagoruz — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 16:26:10 -0000

Nice call Atilla

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/22/does_a_bear_short_in_the_woods.htm

pythagoruz — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 01:26:59 -0000

Haha, nice.

Here I'm licking my chops, is it time to short everything?

http://stockgeometry.blogsp...

Re: Bull Bus...

pythagoruz — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 19:21:37 -0000

Cheap puts, wahooo!

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/19/possible_scenarios.htm

pythagoruz — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 18:41:31 -0000

I'm in a modified version of #2 camp. Mainly, that we are going to breakout above 800 and that breakout will be sold into heavy. Thus it will be a failed breakout and from failed moves come fast moves.

This rally has been too sharp and unforgiving to be anything besides a shakekout. The steeper they rise, the harder they fall and the concentrated effort to deceive investors by the big boys stinks of a collapse. Here are three simplistic scenarios that I see:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_K...

I do think the end of this bear market is near, in the next six months, which is based on the duration of previous cycles in this bear. That being said, I think the end is much lower, ~550, which is based on a measured rule and the scale of previous cycles in this bear.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/19/financial_toilet_paper.htm

pythagoruz — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 11:15:14 -0000

Yeah, the thing is that the math just doesn't add up.

A 50% loss followed by a 50% gain will not get you back to 100%:

.5*1.5 = .75

A 25% loss followed by a 25% gain won't either, but it will get you closer:

.75*1.25 = .94

So in the very long run you can't win with those. They are great for short term trading vehicles, if you are on the right side of course. But long term they all will slowly go to zero.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/19/financial_toilet_paper.htm

pythagoruz — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 10:30:34 -0000

For those who are thinking about the leveraged etfs as a long term play, you might want to read this:

http://www.minyanville.com/...

Re: Congrats to Tim Knight

pythagoruz — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 23:10:03 -0000

lol

Nice avatar btw:

"9:22, Personal note: When I was a little kid my mother told me not to stare into the sun, so once when I was six, I did. At first the brightness was overwhelming, but I had seen that before. I kept looking, forcing myself not to blink, and then the brightness began to dissolve. My pupils shrunk to pinholes and everything came into focus and for a moment I understood. "

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/18/the_twoedged_sword.htm

pythagoruz — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 18:53:22 -0000

I never understand why people by options on the leveraged ETFs. You realize the implied volatility is that much higher on them than the underlying right? Those options are less liquid and have bigger spreads compared with SPY, XLF, QQQ, IWM, etc options. So why wouldn't you just buy puts/calls on those? Options on the leveraged ETFs are made for being sold, not bought. imho

Here's a post I did on this a while back, when thoe options first came out:

http://stockgeometry.blogsp...

I assume that they are more liquid now, but still...

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/18/the_twoedged_sword.htm

pythagoruz — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 18:50:01 -0000

Tim, I salute your honesty and discipline.

Don't worry about this rally (and I know you're not), the harder they pump it the harder it will fall. It seems like the momentum will carry through op ex but surging commodities will kill the economic optimism faster than Abby Cohen can call a bottom!

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/17/consider_the_source.htm

pythagoruz — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 20:48:12 -0000

Funny how he calls that little sell off and subsequent declining volume rally "capitualtion."

Its pretty clear that dudes like that will have to give up on stocks before the real, bear market ending capitulation occurs. According to the chief Citi strategist, we are far from that point.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/17/consider_the_source.htm

pythagoruz — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 20:44:23 -0000

Not only does he still work there, he's still the "chief equity strategist!!"

Good god, we know the bear market is far from over when guys like him are still around to call the bottom and get press for it.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/12/weekend_at_bernies.htm

pythagoruz — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 20:57:57 -0000

Nice video !

Good luck on the ES dude.

Re: links for January 23rd

pythagoruz — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 20:32:08 -0000

Resveratrol was on 60 min Sunday:

http://www.youtube.com/watc...

Do you regularly take it, feeling better?

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/01/13/cashorama.htm

pythagoruz — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 00:29:37 -0000

Simple, just buy DXO, DAG and CA real estate. Easy money.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/10/31/happy_halloween.htm

pythagoruz — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 19:10:54 -0000

Nice costume, http://www.youtube.com/watc...

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2008/10/acrosstheboard_rally.htm

pythagoruz — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 23:08:15 -0000

By lots of goodies you mean ads? lol, reminds me of beanie.