Disqus - Latest Comments for punisher

Re: Key Updates to the Pulse100 Automated System

punisher — Sun, 27 May 2012 10:46:57 -0000

I understand you are looking for help on an exit strategy. Is this right? I would suggest you consider:
- trailing stop exit
- profit target at resistance (for long trades) or support (for short trades)
We always want to catch most of a move, but in reality it is very hard. If your system has a positive expectancy: average winner * % profitable - average loser * (1 - % profitable) = a positive number, then you will do well in the long run. You have to use drawdowns to determine "how much" your system should trade.
Rich

________________________________
From: Disqus <notifications@disqus.net>
To: atechcpa-registration@yahoo.com
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2012 1:43 AM
Subject: [ewindextrader] Re: Key Updates to the Pulse100 Automated System

Disqus generic email template

Re: Update...

punisher — Tue, 24 May 2011 00:35:52 -0000

Yeah, I'm expecting at least a test of 1280 coming up next. Let's see if we can
really get some acceleration on the selling. Today was really kind of
disappointing...

________________________________

Re: Triangle Update

punisher — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 18:24:43 -0000

It certainly looks that way. I've been focused on my automated system and march madness for the last while, but the market punishment for us bears is getting old...

Rich
Sent via BlackBerry from T-Mobile

Re: Divergence is building...

punisher — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 17:40:36 -0000

If the bulls are going to keep this into June, then we'll need the VIX to drop
below 15 soon and stay there. Otherwise, the surprise may be the other way.
But you are right, for now being aggressive on the bearish side is just
throwing away money.

________________________________

Re: Weekend Update

punisher — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:52:09 -0000

It would be ironic if that meeting called the top...

________________________________

Re: New count needed...

punisher — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 18:55:07 -0000

Interesting count ill have to look at the charts to evaluate the possibility

Rich
Sent via BlackBerry from T-Mobile

Re: Quick update

punisher — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 11:39:01 -0000

I'll provide an updated count this week on the big picture but we're essentially
looking at this count off of the March 2009 lows for the SPX:

Intermediate wave 1 (bullish) / A (bearish) : 4/26/10 Top
Intermediate wave 2 / B : 7/1/10 Bottom
Currently we are about to finish a 5 wave pattern. It is either

Minor wave 1 (bullish) / Intermediate wave C (bearish)

The only rule about wave 2 is that it cannot exceed wave 1. We should know much
earlier than that which way we are going. As for the nasdaq, I would consider
that index on a whole different count. Something like this

2003 bottom: wave 1
2007 top: wave a of 2
2009 bottom: wave b of 2
2011 top (coming): wave c of 2 : wave 2 flat

Of course that is only if the bearish scenario works out. I believe I have
history on my side on this one, which is why I'm not giving up on it so
easily...

Best of luck!

________________________________

Re: Quick update

punisher — Sat, 15 Jan 2011 16:00:14 -0000

Sorry Lord, but you are wrong...wave 2's often retrace 786 from the lows. I
have the minor wave 1 option on the table, I'm not committed either way right
now but it is still on the table until we see the wave pattern of the next move
down, which should start next week...

Rich

________________________________

Re: Busy times...

punisher — Fri, 12 Nov 2010 11:23:00 -0000

pima,

I'm looking at those other indices with a different count. The nasdaq stocks
could easily be in a primary wave 2 flat (oct 07 high - a, mar 09 - b, current
wave c top). I haven't really watched the russel to see how it would track, but
not every index has to be in the same primary wave count. Just remember though,
we need PRICE confirmation of even a potential start to my bearish count. We
don't even have that yet.

Thanks!

Rich

________________________________

Re: Still looking bullish, but next pullback is key

punisher — Mon, 08 Nov 2010 18:47:38 -0000

I would actually consider alt counts for those indices, especially the nas. Remember nasdaq never eclipsed 2000 high nor 2003 low (I don't have charts so I don't remember exact dates).

Re: QE2...

punisher — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 11:55:04 -0000

Wow, the praise for my work is over the top. What exactly does 'being right'
mean for you in trading anyway?

I think I consistently make cases for future direction and provide confirmation
levels. Look at what the market has done over the last 8 months. We had the
flash crash, consolidation, a fake breakdown, more consolidation, a push up and
more more consolidation. The volume has been weak, the move up has been
grinding at best with very little impulsive action. All that smells of a top,
so of course I'm going to be watching for confirmation of what I'm seeing. Does
that mean I'll be 'right'?? This is a game of probabilities and risk
management. If you're looking for some holy grail to tell you where the market
is going and when, then look somewhere else. If I had it, I wouldn't be sharing
it, I would be retired and living the good life.

Best of luck,

Rich

________________________________

Re: Elections tomorrow, and then a breakout

punisher — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 00:34:25 -0000

Well, I was referring to either as price action would break out of the channel:
either up or down. Tomorrow / Friday should be the top if I'm counting right.

________________________________

Re: First wave complete...

punisher — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 08:38:55 -0000

Good look of the QQQQ channel. We need a solid break down of the channel to get
something going...maybe the election?

________________________________

Re: First wave complete...

punisher — Thu, 28 Oct 2010 08:45:21 -0000

Looks like another desperate intervention by a central bank. It may prop the
markets for the short term, but long term just another disaster....

________________________________

Re: Stay on target...

punisher — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 01:51:38 -0000

While I agree that the ED pattern I have laid out doesn't follow the traditional
ED pattern of 1 being the largest and 5 being the smallest, it is still a valid
pattern. Should price hold at the 1175 level and move higher, than I think that
puts your count in play.

Best!

________________________________

Re: Not much to say...

punisher — Mon, 25 Oct 2010 23:35:46 -0000

Great work Darell!

________________________________

Re: So far so good...

punisher — Fri, 22 Oct 2010 01:20:07 -0000

Sure was, but that is the nature of technical analysis, but we are still in a
topping pattern, so I'm patient...

________________________________

Re: Tomorrow we grade the test

punisher — Fri, 15 Oct 2010 17:52:56 -0000

Sure looks like it.

________________________________

Re: Today is it for the bears

punisher — Thu, 14 Oct 2010 08:39:41 -0000

Of course now that you're out the market will drop to the floor. Once this run
is over, don't be afraid to get back in the water.

Rich

________________________________

Re: Completed pattern? Completato modello?

punisher — Thu, 07 Oct 2010 09:45:30 -0000

Chris,

While the NDX has certainly outperformed the SPX since the July low, it has
underperformed the last while. We are currently testing a critical area in the
market. It is possible that the divergence between the NDX and SPX will be the
nail in the coffin for the market.

Hang in there.

Rich

________________________________

Re: Cautiously bearish...

punisher — Tue, 05 Oct 2010 10:33:35 -0000

The market is absolutely respecting that channel thus far...

________________________________

Re: Major Top?

punisher — Fri, 01 Oct 2010 11:45:04 -0000

Well, after looking at his primary count, the author of that site omits the very
obvious looking 3 wave up pattern that I label as minute wave 'a'. In addition,
the new highs have peaked and are getting weaker. We should at least test
1095/1100 area. If this is indeed a bull market, that area will hold, and we'll
see major buying coming in.

Best of luck,

Rich

________________________________

Re: One more high?

punisher — Thu, 30 Sep 2010 10:00:44 -0000

Chris,

First we have to get confirmation that we have the right count. If minor wave 3
is about to start, then my first intermediate target is 950 on the SPX, which
you can translate over to the NDX. If we are going to take out the high made
earlier in the year, then this next down move should only be temporary and hold
in the 1095/1100 area.

Best of luck!

Rich

________________________________

Re: 5 waves complete

punisher — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 13:48:47 -0000

Hey Chris,

I know you're in a tough one. I've been there too many times to count, so I
still don't learn! But here is what I see:

- the nasdaq100 always represents highest beta stocks
- tech is loved especially the darlings: aapl, amzn, etc...
- when the market didn't break down for whatever reason, money piled into tech
because the future is tech. You'll notice banking hasn't done so well.
- the strong sectors are always tempting to short because of the reward side of
the equation, but the risk side is also very high. You should always short
strong sectors with a cautious hand. Don't be afraid to prey on the weak.

Hang in there, bullishness is too high right now IMHO, so we should at least
take some steam off this bull for a week or two. Let's see where it takes us.

Rich

________________________________

Re: Getting very close...

punisher — Tue, 21 Sep 2010 16:21:02 -0000

My intermediate target is 950 but if we just get a b/x wave here then I would look for the 1090/1100 area for support