Disqus - Friends of peterwd

Re: Into the oblivion...

swinger — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:29:23 -0000

Got my limit buy to cover stop set at 76.80 on SPY.

Too high, ya think?

Re: Another 4-Sigma move may be underway

swinger — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 15:02:26 -0000

Bottom rail of trend channel on ES is 745. Gonna snug up stops right there in case it bounces. That's been my target for a while now.

Could be approaching a point of diminishing returns here as r/r ratio narrows. An obvious edge of the abyss means we could be approaching ursa launch territory.

Re: Another 4-Sigma move may be underway

swinger — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 15:11:27 -0000

no message

Re: Covered everything at ES=755 level

swinger — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 15:52:45 -0000

I covered too.

Gonna be interesting to see if ES 745 bottom rail generates a bounce.

Re: Covered all ES positions at 872

swinger — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 13:06:11 -0000

Last thing I posted here was on 11/21 at the bottom:

http://xtrends.blogspot.com...

Bottom rail of trend channel on ES is 745. Gonna snug up stops right there in case it bounces. That's been my target for a while now.

Could be approaching a point of diminishing returns here as r/r ratio narrows. An obvious edge of the abyss means we could be approaching ursa launch territory.
......................................................................................................................................

After covering the short there, I switched to long and held that position until rejection at resistance on 1/6 at ES 937--then reversed back to short just below that number.

FWIW, my stop is now at 893 and next target is 858--and if that line doesn't generate a bounce, then think we drop back down to retest the bottom.

Market is fully bearish right here--no reason to cover yet--and definitely no reason to be long.

...my .02

Re: Covered all ES positions at 872

swinger — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 13:29:23 -0000

I don't mind occasionally sharing what I do--but how I do it...well, that's definitely worth something to me and not the sort of thing a good trader just gives away.

Lotsa folks (not necessarily you) want to get spoon-fed for free, it seems...but in this business--believe me--nothing worth anything comes free.

The honest posters come clean and admit that they have an angle to work when posting on public boards like this. My angle is that I have been contributing to a collaborative effort to make a useful and pretty innovative tool for traders that may be of some interest to folks like you--but it is still in private beta at this time. In time I'll post a link if folks are interested.

Re: closed short ETFs

swinger — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 14:55:31 -0000

Here comes the second test of ES 858...

Early action sucked in bulls and caused bears with tight stops to cover buy. In both cases, we now have traders potentially ready to sell on a push below the lows. The bulls selling to get out and the bears frantically selling the break trying to reestablish short positions that they were bluffed out of earlier.

Goons have created lots of potential sellers here--so conditions are ripe for either covering into a pop below the lows, or alternatively, to create the selling momentum needed to overcome dip buyers and pierce support.

What happens around 858 area could be interesting.

...just my .02

Re: High probability a giant gap up tomorrow

swinger — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 10:48:36 -0000

A followup from my comments yesterday...

………………………………………………………………………………………….
http://xtrends.blogspot.com...

Here comes the second test of ES 858...

Early action sucked in bulls and caused bears with tight stops to cover buy. In both cases, we now have traders potentially ready to sell on a push below the lows. The bulls selling to get out--and the bears frantically selling the break trying to reestablish short positions that they were bluffed out of earlier.

What happens around 858 area could be interesting.

...just my .02

.....................................................................................................................................

Now the goons are into the retail selling zone below 858—so two possibilities here...

1) They could use the overnight gap as a buffer and push hard to open a wide range between protective stops to make it too scary for most bears to follow.

2) They could use the selling here (bulls exiting and bears chasing) as a place to cover their shorts from the 1/6/09 sell. They would need to park it near the stop/reversal line if that is the plan.

Either way, 858 area now becomes the new stop/reversal line--trailing stops move there on the existing short trade (from 937 area) . Rules are: no long trades below that line and cover shorts and reverse to counter trend long if price crosses back above.

Next target lower is 748 area.

Re: long BGU @ 29.90

swinger — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 13:08:54 -0000

Some OpEx forensics…

The ES low on 11/21/08 was 738.50. The recent high was at 942.75 on 1/6/09.

Add them together and then divide by two and you get 840.63, which yields the middle of the recent range.

Here we are at OpEx and the current ES price is…that’s right, you guessed it…hovering around 840 area.

High VIX creates high premiums on options and my guess is that the goons have been busy selling them hand over fist the past couple of months. Now, it’s payday and the money is in the bank for ‘expire on open’ contracts. Rest of day will likely be spent positioning the ‘expire on close’ contracts.

Recent range mid-price for SPY = 84.40, for QQQQ = 28.34. Just for fun, let’s see how the close goes assuming that parking in the middle of the range screws the most suckers.

Re: long SKF at 153.4

swinger — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 09:35:59 -0000

Follow-up from last post 2 weeks ago…

Covered short from 937 at 859. Now countertrend long with next upside target 900. Still a LT/IT bear market but gotta stay out of the squeezes and be positioned correctly just in case rally gets legs. Stop/reverse on current trade @ 855.

.....................................................................................................................................
<from january="" 13,="" 2009="">
Now the goons are into the retail selling zone below 858—so two possibilities here...

1) They could use the overnight gap as a buffer and push hard to open a wide range between protective stops to make it too scary for most bears to follow.

2) They could use the selling here (bulls exiting and bears chasing) as a place to cover their shorts from the 1/6/09 sell. They would need to park it near the stop/reversal line if that is the plan.

Next target lower is 748 area.

………………………………………………………………………………………………

Re: long SKF at 153.4

swinger — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 10:21:47 -0000

Countertrend long means that I reversed to the long side after covering short from 937 and am now protecting that new position with a stop under 855.

The higher trends remain down, so this trade is on a short leash. Either it works (a squeeze develops) or it doesn't. New battle lines are drawn at 855 area and there could be some whipsawing there.

Back under 855 and the bear returns--above there is potential squeeze territory.

Gotta be nimble to come out of this area on the right side as they will do whatever it takes to get people on the other side of their trades. Same ol same ol...

Re: shorted the other half @ 848

swinger — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 16:50:41 -0000

Re: Possibility for a sizable gap down tomorrow

swinger — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 17:34:51 -0000

There was a very good reason for this rally...

ES dipped just below support at 806, triggered the bull stops and then rallied from there.

ES has been stuck in a trading range between 806 and 871 since mid-January. Da goons caught some bears leaning today looking for a breakdown out of that range.

Re: Another example will be made soon

swinger — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 09:04:17 -0000

First question ya gotta ask yourself on a futures-led push down is ‘where are the stops?” For the retail bulls on ES they are (were) under 797. Next target then becomes intraday breakout area at 784.

If that were to go, then we start looking at the 11/21/08 bar. That is where the goons bought the big selloff—and is where THEIR stops live. High of that day was 801.75 and close was 791.50. If those numbers get taken out, then bears have reason to start licking their chops, as they would then be getting into the big boy’s stash.

I am now moving my trailing profit stop to 807 (from 855 short entry). If that gets hit then will probably want to reverse counter trend for a squeeze off stop raid under the range bottom—otherwise will just continue pushing it down as the bear unfolds.

Re: Another example will be made soon

swinger — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 08:31:14 -0000

Depends on the circumstances and the timeframe. I use risk to reward calcs and when the ratio is getting small on a winning trade (getting close to my target) I definitely use hard stops because I want to get paid.

At the start of a promising high r/r trade I often have to work hard to keep from being shaken out as the pros harvest every last opportunity to screw somebody before the push. The start of a good trade is usually where the stop-running treachery happens--not the end so much where the goons have the other side on the ropes and are going for the throat.

FYI, my stop/reversal line is now just above 798 on ES (price is currently at 791 as I type this) and if they want to run it and pay me after stopping just short of tagging 784 (784.75 is the leg low and 784 was my original target), that's okay and I would look to change sides right there. Otherwise, just going to keep pushing it down behind them until they decide to turn.

It is almost never a bad thing to get stopped on a trade with profit on a pullback near a target--you can always reenter with a fresh mind and lack of bias at that point after considering the new risk/reward.

Re: Update

swinger — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 08:58:56 -0000

...moved post to new topic

Re: xVix

swinger — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 09:07:54 -0000

Update on ES swing trade from 855…

738-748 area is where the new bull/bear battle lines are drawn. Current trade setup is long above that line and short below.

I covered the last of the original short trade from 855 (see posting history) at 750 for a little over 100 points of profit and am now flat and looking at the next direction out of this current setup…

Where it goes next likely depends on what works best for the politicos, I assume, since they absolutely control the markets at present. If the current administration wants to keep scaring folks to accomplish their agenda—then they may decide to take out the November ES lows to flush the stops. The opening of a new leg lower will definitely spook even the most optimistic bulls, but the downside of that strategy is that it will likely push back the date of the eventual recovery if they let it fall too far.

If a near-death test of the November low is the plan and they are planning to push it back into the trading range holding pattern between 750 and 870 to continue allowing the descending averages to catch up to price, then we could see a futures liftoff once they are done scaring folks out of the stuff they want to buy.

First upside target from 748 is around 806, for about 7% potential gain against a relatively small risk at present. Downside short target is unclear since there is no more support under the current area.

Re: Major world markets may crash alltogether in two weeks.

swinger — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 08:17:27 -0000

Update on most recent ES trade…

Long entry from 748 is working, so far.

This is a counter trend trade at this point, and so it could reverse and give back all profits at any time if the primary trend suddenly reasserts—but trick in a bear market is to stay out of the squeezes on the short side and to ride the counter trend to exhaustion from low-risk entry setups, when possible.

Stop/reversal line is presently at ES 748. Price action is bullish above/bearish below that line. Still looking for 800 area for first upside target if the push continues higher. Protective stop now moved to break even for a relatively stress-free trade.

Re: Major world markets may crash alltogether in two weeks.

swinger — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 09:10:30 -0000

My original thesis on this trade was to risk 1% looking for 7% return. After surviving the first round of gut-wrenching volatility yesterday (probably the goons shaking out new longs with tight trailing stops) I have now advanced my stop to B/E. My risk just went from 1% to zero.

As a swing trader, I am not particularly interested in trying to trade the slop in between ideal entry points. If I get stopped for 10 points ‘guaranteed gain’ on a pullback, then that would leave me stuck with no position right in the thick of the day trader soup with everyone else. I presently have a good counter trend entry and as ‘Old Turkey’ always tried to say to the young bucks—you can’t lose your position.

In my opinion, guys who are afraid to lose initial profits almost always get shaken out before the big moves. As it stands, I am fully prepared to give back all the current gains—knowing that this is a countertrend trade. If I move my stop to 10 points behind the price, then I am almost guaranteed netting 10 points on the trade as the goons do their thing on the wiggles—but my original goal on this trade is 50 points, minimum. I’ll either get it, or I won’t—but as it stands, I am, in essence, playing with the house money and that sure beats wringing my hands worrying how long a short trade on the wrong side of the push might go against me.

Re: Major world markets may crash alltogether in two weeks.

swinger — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 10:39:05 -0000

http://www.maniacworld.com/...

If squeeze continues, then thinking guys on the wrong side are pretty deep into stage one and about to enter stage two.

Definitely not funny to be trapped--but psychological aspect is spot on.

Re: Into the oblivion...

swinger — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 08:28:30 -0000

ES update…

Countertrend trade gave up the ghost earlier than expected, and that’s just the way she goes sometimes. Stopped out for small gain on yesterday’s flop and now flipped back to short under 748.

The last support and location of the hard-core bull stops is (was) under the November ES lows at 738.50. If the goons are short and looking for a honey pot, that would be the obvious target for them to provide the volume they need to cover and possibly reverse out of the panic and mayhem. Of course, the other possibility is the one the hard-core bears are salivating over and that is the 'hot knife through butter' scenario if those lows are breached and no recovery bounce materializes.

Can’t say it is terribly comfortable to be in a breakout short with so much emotional company—but the plan is to just push the stops down behind the trade and to quickly reverse back to long if a rally out of the hole materializes.

Stop/reversal number is 748. There are no more downside targets.

Re: Into the oblivion...

swinger — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 09:12:38 -0000

There is a clear long term bearish trend channel on the ES contract (drawn from 3/24/2000 top to 10/12/2007 top on weekly charts with parallel lower channel line from 10/2002 bottom) and the push this morning has finally touched the bottom rail.

Everyone (and I do mean everyone) sees the bearish potential from here--but there is potential for a reversal from the edge of the abyss and if it sticks, the rally could be impressive.

For me, 748 is the key stop/reversal number. ES is bearish below--but if they take that number out on the upside I am going to be one very bullish dude.

...my .02

Re: The day after tomorrow

swinger — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 10:22:36 -0000

ES update…

ES is in uncharted territory (literally). No downside targets remain on the chart.

November ES low was 738.50, so that will be a key level many are watching as a potential cover/buy zone after a stop raid…if that is what this ultimately turns out to be.

SPX cash has a long-term trendline support target at about 690 area--and if this continues to sell off, that will be a number to watch for a possible reaction in ES.

Staying short from 748 entry, but will start peeling off partials above 735. Looking for 690 SPX cash equivalent on continued selling--but am wary of possible bullish divergences forming on my stuff from those November lows and would exit all short positions on a close today above 735.

…my .02

Re: A bullish looking chart

swinger — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 11:59:53 -0000

Only two industry groups are green...

Brewers 1.76%
Distillers & Vintners 0.21%

The rest are red...

Insurance, Prop/Casua -0.40%
Water Utilities -0.58%
Software -1.08%
Computer Hardware -1.10%
Medical Supplies -1.13%
Retailer, Apparel -1.36%
Hh Prod, Non Durable -1.45%
Restaurants & Bars -1.47%
Soft Drinks -1.60%
Food Retailers & Wholesa -1.61%
Electric Utility -1.61%
Tobacco -1.69%
Insurance Full Line -2.40%
Reinsurance -1.76%
Insurance Brokers -1.86%
Retailer, Broadline -2.02%
Telecomm Equipment -2.03%
Computer Services -2.23%
Multiutilities -2.26%
Mortgage Finance -2.27%
Food Products -2.32%
Personal Products -2.42%
Specialized Consumer Svc -2.44%
Fixed Line Commun -2.51%
Retailers, Specialty -2.76%
Internet Services -2.81%
Financial Administration -2.92%
Pharmaceuticals -2.93%
Toys -2.99%
Home Construction -3.09%
Retailer, Drug -3.12%
Business Support Service -3.19%
Footwear -3.24%
Semiconductors -3.29%
Integrated Oil & Gas -3.36%
Clothing & Accessories -3.41%
Travel & Tourism -3.53%
Waste &Disposal Services -3.85%
Biotechnology -3.56%
Consumer Electronics -3.73%
Defense -3.75%
Broadcasting -3.83%
Office Equipment -3.88%
Auto Parts -4.08%
Electronic Equipment Idx -4.13%
Business Training Employ -4.17%
Industrial Suppliers Idx -4.21%
Building Material -4.23%
Recreation Services -4.27%
Home Improvement Retaile -4.30%
Media Agencies -4.42%
Chemicals Commodity -4.55%
Gas Distribution -4.59%
Specialty Chemicals -4.64%
Medical Equipment -4.69%
Trucking -4.89%
Hh Prod, Durable -4.89%
Aerospace -4.90%
Wireless Comm -4.95%
Publishing -5.12%
Elect Cmpts & Equipment -5.13%
Delivery Services -5.43%
Railroads -5.50%
Container & Packaging -5.54%
Investment Services -5.54%
Furnishings -5.56%
REIT -5.82%
Asset Managers -6.02%
Gold Mining -6.14%
Specialty Finance -6.48%
Consumer Finance -6.49%
Airlines -6.49%
Real Estate Holding &Dev -6.50%
Industrial Machinery Idx -6.55%
Insurance, Life -6.85%
Banks -7.07%
Hotels -7.94%
Transportation Services -7.14%
Healthcare Providers -7.24%
Oil Equipment & Services -8.47%
Commercial Vehicle&Truck -7.37%
Marine Transportation -7.56%
Gambling -7.68%
Recreational Product -7.71%
Tires -7.75%
Exploration & Production -7.90%
Aluminum -8.00%
Heavy Construction -8.26%
Pipelines -8.26%
Industrials, Diversified -8.68%
Automobile Manufa -8.77%
Paper Products -9.48%
Non Ferrous Metals -10.78%
Steel -11.54%
Platinum Precious Metals -11.35%
Coal -13.46%

Re: Some thoughts

swinger — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 10:11:18 -0000

Ideal reversal scenario for today...

Need a new low to SPX 690 followed by a strong buying spike off that number that takes the indexes back to green and then continues a strong rally into the close. That satisfies the goonish reversal signature of sweeping stops and baiting folks to the wrong side just before a trend change.

If that low/bounce were to happen, then would cover ES short on the bounce back into positive territory > yesterday's close and would switch to long with protective stop at lows.

...my .02