Disqus - Latest Comments for zach_bass

Re: Finance Gurus for Apple Investors to Follow on Twitter

Zach Bass — Wed, 13 May 2009 22:00:45 -0000

I'm sorry if I had anything to do with getting barred from StockTwits.
I've heard their banning policy is a bit erratic.

Anyways, I enjoy both your website and tweets. Keep up the good work.

-ernie

Re: Is the iPhone 3.0 SDK All That?

Zach Bass — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 00:48:21 -0000

My blog can be about whatever I choose. If you read my bio above, you'll see I reserve the right to talk about whatever pleases me.

Re: Is the iPhone 3.0 SDK All That?

Zach Bass — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 00:47:31 -0000

That's the one feature I cited that I believe will be big, especially for new B2B and B2C apps. So, I agree.

Re: Is the iPhone 3.0 SDK All That?

Zach Bass — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 00:45:23 -0000

The fact that you cite the 30 pin connector as an important feature, worthy of note, leads me to believe you think Apple's shit don't stink. The fact that they've created more vendor lock-in through this connector may have a back-lash. I don't believe it's going to be the reason for a new class of compatible products. I could be wrong.

Re: Binary Game App

Zach Bass — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 21:24:45 -0000

Excellent review, and an excellent game. I'm hooked, so is my daughter, as she appears on the leader board on the B1nary Game web page. I also wrote a review, plus an interview with the author.

You can find the review here: http://bit.ly/b1nary-review

And the game in the iTunes store here: http://bit.ly/b1nary

Re: Does Apple Have A Blind Spot About Flash?

Zach Bass — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 09:09:12 -0000

I do believe Apple believe in the open web, but they're also guarded of there revenue stream with iPhone Apps. And until they can figure a way to control the marginalization of the App store, Flash won't be in the cards.

Re: Apple Investors, Brace Yourself For Buying Opportunities

Zach Bass — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 06:10:55 -0000

Marcos, Marcos, I thought I was being clear. We're heading towards a pivot point, a convergence, the proverbial fork in the road. We could go up, we could go down. But whichever way we go, we're gonna go hard, because that's usually how we come out of these lateral or wedge patterns.

I can't provide definitive forecasts. All I can do is make my best analysis to determine the most probable direction. And what I was trying to say here is that we have something of a coin flip with AAPL more biased to the upside and the markets more biased to the downside. If the markets go down hard, then AAPL may still go up but will get tempered by the markets. Or at least it won't go down very far, probably into the strong support it has in the 89-90 area, with the next level of support around 85. If the market goes up, I can see AAPL taking out it's 50 day, then perhaps making a run for 102-103. The pattern measures out to as high as 115-120, but I don't think we'll see that.

Re: Apple Investors, Brace Yourself For Buying Opportunities

Zach Bass — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 18:43:37 -0000

Marcos, you are correct that volume is usually impact-full on my analysis, But it is not always indicative of the action, there are other factors that may trump volume at times. But not usually.

In the case with AAPL today we had about 60% of the average volume. Most of the volume came when driving AAPL up from its lows in the beginning of the session and near the end of the day. So on balance I would say there were slightly more buyers than sellers.

As far as my forecast goes, I think were still in a holding pattern heading towards a moment of truth when the lateral wedge that AAPL and all the indexes are in will finally make a decision as to which side of the battle lines they will move to. I think AAPL is biased to the upper and the indexes are biased downwards.

Re: Apple Investors, Brace Yourself For Buying Opportunities

Zach Bass — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 18:35:45 -0000

I look at mainly three indexes, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 for general market calls. I also look at the Russell 2K and Willshire for confirmation. With each of these charts I examine multiple timeframes, that is I look at near-term (10, 30, and 60 minute charts), mid-term and long-term (daily, weekly and monthly charts). I look for indicators that are either in line or contrary to the time frames. I'm particularly interested in indicators that confirm across multiple contiguous timeframes, because that increases the probability of the read.

Re: Apple Investors Use Twitter to Gain the Advantage

Zach Bass — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 23:51:55 -0000

I've been around for a long time myself, 30 years in this industry, since the beginning of the Internet. In fact I ran a BBS back in the late 80s that had 4 lines and over 2,000 members. We were connected to several others from around the world. So, I don't need any lectures on how we got here!

Re: AAPL Poised for a Pop in the Near Term

Zach Bass — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 11:12:52 -0000

I'm sorry Marcos, but I have to report what I see. Just because things go down, doesn't mean they can't correct. And quite frankly, AAPL along with GOOG and Oil for that matter, have been establishing a strong basing pattern with positive divergences under neath in the near-term. That my friend, is a recipe for a correction.

Now it doesn't mean that things won't still go down, because I think they will. But I have to take what the market gives me for the moment, and that;s what I see.

Re: AAPL Poised for a Pop in the Near Term

Zach Bass — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 23:39:19 -0000

The entry would be just above the pivot point, which would be the downtrend line in the daily chart. That would be about 93. You'd want to make sure it was a breakout above this line before taking a position, but you could be safe by taking a position once AAPL moved above the trend line and setting a tight stop just below it.

Re: Twitter….What Would You Pay?

Zach Bass — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 09:59:06 -0000

I think Digg is melting into obscurity because it's not very open to non-geeks to participate. If you're site is not on the watch list of a select group of Diggsters, then you'll never get dug.

Re: Would I Be More Loved if I were Bullish on AAPL?

Zach Bass — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 17:23:09 -0000

Toootoo, you are exactly the type of person to which I refer. Please enlighten me how I have been dishonest. Thanks.

Re: No Hope or Change for Apple Investors

Zach Bass — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 09:58:29 -0000

I was referring to the S&P 500 index, not Apple's share price.

Re: Trade Apple Like a Fool

Zach Bass — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 16:15:34 -0000

You are correct Claudio. I should be clear that they would be near-term fools.

Re: Trade Apple Like a Fool

Zach Bass — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 14:49:39 -0000

I did not say "the most valid", I said "viable for ALL time frames." TA looks at past patterns to help predict future moves. In much the same way we look at an asteroid, and project its future path based on it's current trajectory.

The problem right now is that this secular bear market we are in is nearly 9 years old, and it's not finished yet. When will it turn? I have no idea. Maybe 2 years, maybe 2 decades. Sure there will be rallies, and we should play them for all they're worth.

Taking a bullish position on Apple can be both relative and absolute. I certainly think that Apple, relative to most other companies out there will be bullish. Now the question is, will it be bullish in absolute terms. What if they continue to make money, but the stock goes down? Then what?

I think in the long term, Apple has a better chance of success than 99 percent of the companies out there. And so from that point of view, I'm bullish. But will I put my money on it right now? No. Because the time frames are different. I want a return within weeks or months. An investment in AAPL may not provide a return much further down the road. And it's not because of Apple, it's because of the economic morass we are currently in.

Re: Trade Apple Like a Fool

Zach Bass — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 13:09:29 -0000

Claudio, I never said that Technical Analysis was only good for the short term. What I said was that TA was an excellent tool for picking entry and exit points in the short-term. I believe TA is viable for ALL time frames, far more so than fundamentals.

My philosophy for choosing stocks is really 3-fold; Use screens to pair down the list, use fundamentals to further limit that list to strong, well heeled companies, and use TA to determine entry and exit points on positions. My philosophy on reading the market however, is purely technical.

Re: Apple Leaves Macworld Limping

Zach Bass — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 16:26:27 -0000

Christian, I appreciate your brutally honest assessment. Just so you know, these excerpts were copied directly from my email alerts, without any editing. And the alerts were being produced at near real-time, so the accounts of the event are obviously terse.

Re: How the Apple Investor Will Succeed in 2009

Zach Bass — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 13:27:26 -0000

You're taking my statement out of context. I preceded this with... "If the story is true, and it’s verified"

I didn't say AAPL would lose 25% unconditionally.

Re: Gizmodo Reports that Apple’s CEO Steve Jobs’ Health is Failing

Zach Bass — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 11:33:30 -0000

You're taking my statement out of context. I preceded this with... "If the story is true, and it’s verified"

I didn't say AAPL would lose 25% unconditionally.

Re: Walmart’s got iPhone

Zach Bass — Sun, 28 Dec 2008 17:14:13 -0000

Those are refurbished iPhones (8GB), so they have a limited supply. They only have black. Also, they're selling the 16GB, both black and white, for $199.

Re: Apple Has an Inside Day, Not a Good Thing

Zach Bass — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 07:05:33 -0000

Hi Christian, excellent comments.

Doing Technical Analysis is like doing what a weatherman does. If you've noticed, a weatherman is never 100% correct either. It's like a weatherman, because you take the best information available, apply well known models, patterns and experience and you come up with a prediction that is predicated on probability. So it's not a matter of being 100% right or 100% wrong, it's a matter of degree. Just as in the weather, there are too many factors that influence the markets to predict with 100% accuracy, but it is possible to identify trends and probable outcomes to a fair degree of accuracy. Enough at least to make intelligent investment decisions.

As far as the market always being right and looking forward 3 to 6 months; If you were to look back in early september, I posted a series of articles warning that we were headed for a crash. One of them was entitled "Fasten Your Seatbelts, Put on Your Crash Helmets." At that time the market was giving clear signals that things were falling apart. Just as I suspect some time in mid to late 2009 the market will start to rally out of this bear, yet the economy probably won't turn for several months afterwards. One other big prediction that was spot on, was when I called an end to this bear rally back on Dec 11th. Other than that, most of the day to day stuff is like a weather vane, although I have to take exception, because I believe I've been better than 80% correct the past several months. If you could site specific examples, then I will address that.

And when I say that the market is always right, I'll have to admit that it's a form of rhetorical speech. But the fact of the matter is that the pricing of equities reflects supply and demand, as well as the sentiment of the mob of investors that make up the market. If an equity like AAPL falls to ridiculous lows, even though the fundamentals don't justify it, that's the supply demand equation at work. There's simply not enough buyers willing to pay the price, so that's why the price is what it is. Just like buying a house. You may think your house is worth $650K, but if no one buys it until you drop the price to $600K, then you've found what your house is really worth, regardless of the improvements you put into it.

Re: Apple Has an Inside Day, Not a Good Thing

Zach Bass — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 12:42:52 -0000

I have NO position is AAPL. I do have a small position in SDS, which is an inverse ETF that tracks the S&P 500. But your advice is sound, that I should disclose my holdings if I talk about a particular stock. In this case, I think I'm on good ground, as I have no position in AAPL.

Re: Apple Has an Inside Day, Not a Good Thing

Zach Bass — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 09:47:46 -0000

I'm sorry gumdrop, but you're exposing your incredible ignorance when it comes to technical analysis. This is not a bullish harami, as you indicate by your link. Please leave the analysis to experts. First of all, we printed a black candle, not a white one. Plus, the range of price was in the lower half of the previous day.

And it is quite obvious that you have neither the skill or experience to level such charges against my analysis. Just because it doesn't agree with your jaded view, does mean that it's not correct.

As it stands now, I have warned you too many times, and I'm going to moderate your comments. If they start improving, I'll let them through, but up to this point, you haven't provided any value to this blog, you've simply been an annoyance.