Disqus - Latest Comments for nicknich3

Re: Philippine Electricity Markets, The Coming Crash in WESM Prices First off - I...

Nick Nichols — Sat, 26 May 2012 03:28:53 -0000

Keeping perspective:

The daily data I had at hand from WESM Weekly Reports goes back to just Jan-2011 and that is what is reflected in the post above. But to keep things in perspective, here is a plot of WESM monthly average data going back to Jan-2010. 2010 was an El Niño year with shortages.

https://img.skitch.com/2012...

The longer term 28-month trend shown is DOWN, not up. It's the shorter term trend we see in the post that has turned upward.

The shorter-term, 17 month rate of increase in prices vs rate of increase in load still isn't likely sustainable in long-term, so don't expect it anymore than one should expect the 28 month longer term trend to continue downward. Things will be cyclical. And the long term trend, say 15 years, is unknowable. It could very well be downward, or upward and depends greatly on cost of new technologies and fuels. We can only monitor these trends on differing time scales.

Re: Philippine Electricity Markets, NPC's New Rate Increases - In a Nutshell

Nick Nichols — Sat, 12 May 2012 03:14:58 -0000

The ERC actually consolidated eight different filings in the GRAM Decision. The first of those filings was made by NPC in 2008. I don't know why this took so long.

Re: Philippine Electricity Markets, NPC's New Rate Increases - In a Nutshell

Nick Nichols — Fri, 11 May 2012 19:37:59 -0000

Well the April Luzon rate for NPC is at P5.71/kWh. That may very well be higher than certain PSAs.

Meralco has filed four new PSAs with the ERC and you can find those filings on the ERC website. Those filings contain a "sample calculation" for the February billing month and each of those four sample calculations are below the P5.71 level.

The March "Selling Rate" for WESM was P5.41 - but that's a volatile animal. However, interestingly, the trailing 12-month average for the WESM Selling Rate is also P5.4.

The ERC ratemaking scheme for NPC does appear to be more of less fair to me - although I agree there are several ways to execute fairness in ratemaking. It's the ERC's job to weigh all those and determine "fair." I guess it's always a debatable issue. But fundamentally, cost recovery - which is what the ERC aims for with NPC, is appropriate for a government owned entity. What is disappointing is that cost-recovery rates were not in place during all those years. That ERC decided to permit NPC to recover those past costs at this time is, perhaps, one of those fairness calls. I suppose they could have denied it in toto - but I'm not totally sure of that. There may have been legal constraints.

Re: Philippine Electricity Markets, Ask me anything

Nick Nichols — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 03:26:57 -0000

Cesbayan - The Conal-SOCOTECO II Agreement would be an important step to getting this particular coal-fired plant built as it would help provide the financial security the financiers would need to move forward with construction and operation.

The ERC will be reviewing the appropriateness of both the details and overall impact of this Agreement on the SOCOTECO II ratepayers.

If there are particular aspects that I could help put into "layman's" terms for you, I will be happy to try.

Re: http://phenergy.tumblr.com/post/18699205560

Nick Nichols — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 02:40:54 -0000

I totally agree with you. I would have fully expected that only TPEC had control of offering bids into WESM, even if they handed that over to SMEC as agent. Apparently not the case.

Re: http://phenergy.tumblr.com/post/18699205560

Nick Nichols — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 04:39:56 -0000

Yes. SMEC (the IPP Administrator) has a bilateral IPPA agreement with TPEC (owner/operator of Sual) which gives SMEC the right to market and sell 1,000 MW of power from Sual.

Re: http://phenergy.tumblr.com/post/18699205560

Nick Nichols — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 21:42:33 -0000

I now see that ERC has recently posted a Decision that helps clarify the issue for me.

http://www.erc.gov.ph/cgi-b...

It is not about hedging the uncontracted capacity. It is about who controls the WESM bidding (and how) when there are joint-owners (owner is probably not the correct term, but it's used in the Decision) in the physical output of a single generating unit.The issue is appropriately winding its way through the regulatory process, as it should. Hopefully, we'll find out how this particular case sets a precedent for future such cases in our Philippine markets.

Re: http://phenergy.tumblr.com/post/18401784116

Nick Nichols — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 18:51:57 -0000

I want to make clear that I have't seen the contract. My comments are based solely on my reading of the Applicant's petition contained in the link above.

Further to the 100% Capacity Factor issue:

LEYECO III must nominate 2.5 MW each and every hour of the year, but GCGI gets to designate up to 1,440 hour per year as "maintenance allowance." So only energy associated with an annual capacity factor as low 83.6% might be available at the Contract price.

Language in petition isn't totally definitive on this point, but my reading is that "replacement energy" (for the maintenance allowance) must be procured from and supplied by GCGI (to the extent available to CGCI) at a prices equivalent to the replacement energy cost, but no lower than the Contract price. So if GCGI replaces energy at P3/kWh, they still bill at Contract price of P5.1/kWh escalated. I could be wrong about that. My observation is that that is not an uncommon provision in Philippine bilaterals and is neither good nor bad - I'm just noting it as worthy of consideration.

Re: http://phenergy.tumblr.com/post/18127157527

Nick Nichols — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 17:42:34 -0000

Ha. I have no idea how the MO takes 8.3.3.2 (e) into consideration. To the best of my knowledge it is not a direct factor in determining the hourly schedules. But someone closer to the PEMC mechanisms than I would be in a better position to definitively address that. If I'm incorrect, I'd like to know about it.

Re: http://phenergy.tumblr.com/post/18231232156

Nick Nichols — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 23:48:14 -0000

Yes. I know. I've got image problems here on Tumblr.

Re: http://phenergy.tumblr.com/post/17647875476

Nick Nichols — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 01:38:34 -0000

I deleted a comment here by me because it wasn't well though out. I'm going to stick with my original comment until I'm more certain it's incorrect.

Discussion?

Re: http://phenergy.tumblr.com/post/17647875476

Nick Nichols — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 01:13:13 -0000

Oh, your question never got completed. It looked like it was going to be a good one though.

But let me anticipate where you might have been headed:

My position is that the bidding behavior of an IPP into the WESM is unaffected by the presence or absence of any bilateral it may have in place, if the IPP is profit-maximizing.

So if all IPPs are profit-maximizing, WESM prices are unaffected by bilateral contracts, or the lack thereof.

Although the lack of a bilateral may influence whether an IPP departs the market. That's a bit of a different issue, but it would affect prices.

Re: How a book turned a frenemy into a BFF

Nick Nichols — Sat, 10 Dec 2011 06:55:14 -0000

Congrats Robert. Hey we never had that coffee. Now I've moved CDROM Malumanay.

But not too far away - on Mapang-akit.

Re: The US Open Explains the Dangers Posed by Twitter

Nick Nichols — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 04:44:36 -0000

Harumpf. This smells of economic rent seeking by certain incumbents trying to stave off disintermediation.

Re: What NOT to do When you Relocate Internationally, Part 2

Nick Nichols — Sun, 12 Jun 2011 04:27:46 -0000

Yeah, I'm still trying to scratch out a living. I'm not yet retired.

Re: What NOT to do When you Relocate Internationally, Part 2

Nick Nichols — Sun, 12 Jun 2011 04:25:53 -0000

Bill - Well it turns out my niece mis-located Damulog for me - it's about 15 km further south from Dangcagan than I thought. So these guys may or may not be classmates. But they're close!

Re: What NOT to do When you Relocate Internationally, Part 2

Nick Nichols — Sun, 12 Jun 2011 03:59:45 -0000

Hi Bill. First I want to thank you for writing this up. I appreciated getting to hear about your experiences.

I'm living in Cagayan de Oro. Two of my wife's nieces from Dangacagan have just moved up with us this summer so they can attend school in CdO this upcoming school year that starts tomorrow. So I asked my niece, Maling Delatorre, if she knew where Damulog is and show her your post. Well she immediately recognized your wife as the older sister of her classmate. How amazing?

So I fire up Google Earth, zoom into Dangcagan and she starts jumping up and down with excitement when she recognized her house. Fortunately Google Earth has recent high resolution imagery in that area. And it turns out Damulog is just down the road form their house.

We have a small place in Malaybalay that we're fixing back up so we can use it as a weekend getaway and we plan to do that most weekends now. So if you're ever traveling up our way or to CdO and have time to look me up, please do so. Text me at 0917-549-1535. I spend 10-14 days a month in Manila, so you may miss me, but give it a shot when you can.

- Nick Nichols

Re: Will you or not?

Nick Nichols — Mon, 17 Jan 2011 18:33:28 -0000

I'm finding a wide range in quality in bulad. There seems to be quite a cottage industry developing around the production of "gourmet" bulad. In Manila I have much easier access to those items that I do in Mindanao - that's apparently where the market is; not where it's made.

One of my partners and I had quite a few discussions with an enterprising young lady who was producing these products in Bicol and looking to potentially expand to overseas markets. It turns out that there's often a single plant turning out bulad in a local region - and it's packaged for and under the brand name of different retail vendors. But each retailer can give the producer different specs to use in the production of the bulad for them (the more demanding the specs, the higher the cost).

This lady was having a variety of different bulad produced, and picking the highest quality fish available to the bulad producer. Some fish are quite rare and much better (and more expensive, relatively). Often, she'll have it flavored differently, using different spices or sili.

I've found that the higher quality can be quite good and it doesn't produce "smell" when cooked. It's good for breakfast.

Re: Scripting News: People don't understand OAuth, but they will

Nick Nichols — Sat, 11 Sep 2010 18:44:26 -0000

But can those Apps, using OAuth, change your password? That's a critical point. If they can't, then they don't "get to be me."

Re: I felt good!

Nick Nichols — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 06:15:57 -0000

It's always a surprise when we first realize our children are weaving a life of their own outside our sphere of influence.

Re: My 13(a) visa experience

Nick Nichols — Mon, 02 Aug 2010 19:41:23 -0000

John - I also finally got around to getting my residency visa this past year. But I haven't taken a trip out of the country yet (with my new iCard).

Is the exit travel tax paid at the airport without prior arrangement? Or do you do something a day or so ahead of time?

Re: Betraying trust as a business model

Nick Nichols — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 08:50:15 -0000

Agreed, Kevin. When I first heard of MyLikes business model I thought it sounded horrible.

Re: Betraying trust as a business model

Nick Nichols — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 08:50:15 -0000

Agreed, Kevin. When I first heard of MyLikes business model I thought it sounded horrible.

Re: Power Plays

Nick Nichols — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 09:38:09 -0000

Hi Martin. Darn. I was Butuan for 3 days last week and forgot I had a "friend" there. Next time I'll try to remember to look you up.

I had dinner with General Manager Santos of ANECO. Boy, he's in the hot seat - and it's not really his doing. Napocor has failed to deliver on their contract. He's looking for alternative resources but this is a big problem for the cooperative. They also have a bit of a PR problem, I think. I'm contemplating offering to help them on that, but I haven't called him yet.

Re: Systems Loss - My View

Nick Nichols — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 03:26:19 -0000

Rene - thanks for weighing in on the discussion.

We need MORE of the sector's knowledgeable people to weigh in on this so we can move toward some meaningful practices in the area of loss analysis and reduction. The analysis of losses is still a HUGE problem for the DUs; well, at least for the cooperatives.