Disqus - Latest Comments for mnphysicist

Re: The $1000 car – A Grand Idea

mnphysicist — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 03:07:57 -0000

There is an aspect of process control. Certainly tight process control, including rework is going to result in better corrosion resistance... and if the controls are good in surface finishing, they likely are in other areas as well... but not always. Sometimes purchasing pushes for amazing deals, which result in corners being cut, ie manufacturing right at spec limits for specific parts or sub-assemblies, or non documented specs not being upheld.

I think there is an aspect of design for the climate of intended use, although all try to cover a wide range, some will emphasize one geographic areas more than others. Ie resistance to salt spray may be counter to UV, and or abrasion. SAE standards give quite a bit of lattitude, but internal standards documents are often much tighter in one area more than another... or if under budgetary pressure, less so.

Usually, its not great, nor poor engineering, but the tradeoffs chosen... but not always. In some cases, a engineer will go on vacation midway through a design, and another guy comes in, and doesnt fully understand or even know whats in the vacationing engineers head. Significant massive screwups start out that that way, design docs dont tell the whole story... Its the same with process operators. The old guy who has been there done that forever, often does a much better job than the guy reading the process sheets. If nothing goes wrong, end quality is the same... if something throws up, the old codger will often save the day.

My experience is a bit dated though, and things do change. Otoh, hearing mechanic friends fuss and some other engineering friends, suggest its still business as usual.

Re: The $1000 car – A Grand Idea

mnphysicist — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 20:23:59 -0000

I bought a $900 car off a high school kid in 96 or so... put 400,000 miles on it over the next 8 years. In the same period, the high school kid went through 5 newer cars. Imagine how much money the finance company made as well as the garage, being those newer cars were in the shop and broke down much more frequently than the one I bought.

As far as northern climates go... yep, fuel lines, brake lines, and chassis failure do happen... but it doesnt matter whether its 3 yrs old, or 15. It all depends on the manufacturing process, owner care, repair etc. New or slightly used doesnt mean the factory got it right, or that when they blew it, the repair was a good one.

I've seen as much or more corrosion on late models than old, probably because bad builds end up in the junkyard well before 15 years pass. There is a major activity in rework at the factory, as well as the distribution chain... it can visually pass as new, but that doesnt mean that underneath the car didnt undergo significant damage either in production or transit, or that the processes were running correctly the day(s) it was built.

Re: How TO Influence Me

mnphysicist — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 01:48:12 -0000

I think trying to quantify influence via numbers, even comments, technoratie is an iffy deal... There are so many intangibles. The thing is, in the process of identifying the true influencers, more than likely, you will uncover some key human aspects, be there before the sale, targeting, and the amount of verbosity or lack thereof needed.

In the old days, this was doing your homework before the meeting. Why should online be any different? Sure, one can accomplish many more virtual interactions in the same time one could do a single 3d meeting... but shot gunning dilutes ones effort mult-ifold, and thereby lessens the probability of success, even if you try to scale it... and in time, I just don't think see that working out too well.

Re: DC Opportunity Scholarship Program, good or bad

mnphysicist — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 12:03:32 -0000

I know that mediocrity is a common outcome from Washington, but underneath it all, I would like to think individuals for the most part have the best interest of the child in mind, not so much organizations per se. I guess a good measure of it, will be to see what happens to the mediocrity builder known as NCLB. Some of it has the potential to foster excellence, most of it sadly is focused on achieving the lowest level of learning across the widest group of children, ie mediocrity.

As far as UN resolutions, there are tons of them, which one are you specifically referring to? Obviously the UN is high on idealism, and less so on implementation, but overall, many initiatives tend to be at a higher level, or perhaps too high than mediocre.

Re: Who ate the other $8.944 billion

mnphysicist — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 03:26:36 -0000

Wall Street runs in its own world LOL, although to some extent, the loss leader in retail is similar. The idea is that incentivizing them to stay will ensure the company makes money in years 2,3,4 and on. Also, if a broker leaves, then so do all his customers, and that could be a huge hit. However, not so much in the case of $GS, as they are so entwined with the treasury, but $C is unlikely to be around by the time the bonuses would be paid out... Its an odd deal for sure. Way back when I was fascinated by finance and economics, but thought the money was too limited, but hindsight is always 20/20. LOL

Re: My Socialist Plan for the Auto Industry

mnphysicist — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 10:04:21 -0000

The no fair crys are a huge barrier to progress in a multitude of arenas. Of course to some extent the govt is past that already with the bailout of AIG, all the while letting Lehman crash and burn.

PBGC is a tough one, as usually it means folks get pennys on the dollar for the pension they were counting on. While I like the idea, of backing up the workers pensions somehow, I think this would pretty much mean every entity will dump their pension obligations on PBGC.

The other issue is lead time, from design start to product availability, esp in something tech intensive could well approach 7 years. Granted thats ok for the development groups, but what does one do with production employees. The auto industry likely needs to contract by 40-70%, thats a ton of employees, not only direct, but also peripheral. Then add in suppliers, who may find they can no longer stay in business at such a reduced demand. Bailout, or accellerated loans may help the bottom line for a few months, and may provide work for development staff, but the rank and file production worker still has drastically reduced demand for their services. I dont think it prudent to employ folks to just build inventory which will never sell, or only sell at firesale prices.

On the other hand, not sure there really is much of a choice at this time. Doing nothing is likely to cost a small fortune, I would not be surprised if the total cost of doing nothing wouldnt exceed $700B alone. Ie there are derivative instruments which might well approach a trillion or more, and when an automaker goes under, paying those off, counterparties are going to be crashing and burning left and right, and thus extend the damage well beyond the auto industry, and thats to say nothing of the direct costs.

The whole industry needs to wind down to be a fraction of todays size, and with it, likely burdensome regulations need to go away as well... ie the overhead associated with safety testing may not be sustainable with a smaller industry. Granted, no one wants a unsafe car, but if a safe car is unaffordable, it really doesnt matter. There is a reason many electric and alternative energy vehicles are designed with 3 wheels... they avoid much of the overhead associated with safety regs. Thats going to be a real tough call as well...

No matter what, there are no easy answers to this, and meddling one way or another is likely to open a huge can of unintended consequences.

Re: Ten men in a bar, rewritten to encompass todays economy

mnphysicist — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 16:08:36 -0000

Everyone pays taxes, excluding those who have the ability to use avoidance strategies to the max. Even the fast food worker, who is eligible for the EIC ends up paying the income taxes of others plus multipliers through the inflated prices on US based goods and services (not so on offshore goods, but thats another matter entirely). Tax policy at the bottom of the economic scale doesn't lend itself to sound bites, just as foreign deferment doesn't at the high end. With everything so buried, it makes for a real mess to unravel the true flow of money. Case in point, the rich man will be really soaked via the bailout bill with its changes in offshore deferment (which no one talks about it seems). In many ways, a change in the marginal rates would likely have been a lot less costly to the top 1%, than the deferment changes... on the other hand, changes to deferment tax policy are a somewhat silent way to raise govt revenue by many billions. Don't get me wrong, I always thought offshore deferment was a bad thing, just having it submarined in another bill does not seem a very good approach.

As far as proposed scenarios and tax increases, likely you are correct, although I must admit McCain's health care proposal and its associated tax scheme will raise taxes on any user of the health care system. The question then is whether those in the lowest economic strata would be able to pay or not.

I also agree re: exemptions, the whole marginal tax rate structure ends up being a facade... 30 years ago, when the top marginal rate was at 70%, we didn't have folks rushing to move offshore, but we did have a lot more creative accounting and tax avoidance strategies... I don't see what the fuss is about changing the marginal rates... even if the top marginal rate were to go to 50% as it was in 85, there wont be a mass exodus of wealth going offshore esp with the deferment provisions now in effect, albeit there would be a multitude of unintended consequences.

A couple references... marginal tax rates by year, and tax demographic data.
http://www.truthandpolitics.org/top-rates.php
http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/250.html

Re: How to make Sweetcron relish! http://tinyurl.com/4f4jde › Yongfook - Web Producer

mnphysicist — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 21:48:15 -0000

Too funny.... they probably have no idea what Sweetcron is, but it would be tempting to tell them. If they track their stats, they are going to really wonder why that recipe is getting hammered. LOL

Re: Bad News and Good News for a Dream Deferred

mnphysicist — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 17:54:10 -0000

A class B limits the opportunities as contrasted with the Class A. Ie one is limited to straight trucks, or much lower weight combos. Its a plus in that it opens the door to commercial driving, but its rougher in that many straight truck operators require Class A as a rule of thumb anyhow, even though only Class B is needed.