Disqus - Latest Comments for jeremystein

Re: VC Is The Easiest Job For The First Few Years

jeremystein — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 12:00:03 -0000

you can get away with being mediocre in any financial role for a very, very long time.

Re: The value of a Bitcoin has grown 900% in 3 months.... - The Gong Show

jeremystein — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 14:50:18 -0000

the real question. how do i short a bitcoin?

Re: MBA Mondays: Revenue Models - Commerce

jeremystein — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 08:08:13 -0000

my industry-- luxury watches. manufacturers hate discounting. if a dealer has the power to sell online, it has to be at list price. in reality, you can probably get that watch through an authorized channel for less offline. so in many cases, margins are actually lower in the real world. happy to chat more offline. i think youll like what were building.

Re: MBA Mondays: Revenue Models - Commerce

jeremystein — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 07:34:52 -0000

"So gross margins online are going to be lower than they are in the real world."

this is not necessarily true for industries with grey market goods. manufacturers frequently create authorized channels thereby creating support for margins whether online or offline.

Re: - Thisisgoingtobebig.com - Admitting that you have no idea what you're doing

jeremystein — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 13:25:08 -0000

well. isnt that kind of the point? maybe you have to be lucky to learn how to ask questions properly...

id like to make a bet with a 5-10 year time horizon. random sample of companies started by gamblers (first time entrepreneurs) vs. non gambling first time entrepreneurs. i bet the former significantly outperforms the latter, not just because they are some of the smartest people i know, which surely would make a difference, but also because they are highly aware of these concepts. they know how to eliminate variance over time, they know how to balance the emotional roller coaster. they understand the value of longevity. no doubt in my mind it makes a huge difference.

Re: - Thisisgoingtobebig.com - Admitting that you have no idea what you're doing

jeremystein — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 12:56:44 -0000

have you also noticed why so many people have vastly differing opinions on how to handle certain situations? who is right? and how do you know they are right in the long run?

Re: - Thisisgoingtobebig.com - Admitting that you have no idea what you're doing

jeremystein — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 12:49:04 -0000

thats how i learned backgammon and poker. but it takes a lot of trial and error. people who are giving you advice arent making decisions for you. you are also far more emotionally tied to your outcome.

do you really feel you wouldnt have worked late nights towards the end of your startup had you admitted you didnt know what you were doing at the beginning? or were you so emotionally attached that you didnt want to fail? im highly aware of these concepts, ive been through more extremes than most people ever will, and im still emotionally attached to failure. you know how many bruises i have on my leg from flying out in softball.

emotion completely blurs decisions. and its very difficult when you have strong financial ties to the outcome. the only way for me to balance this when gambling is to donate 100% of the profits to charity. it was never about money for me anyways-- just the thought process. i could lose a sickening amount of money and be perfectly normal (it has 0 impact on my life), whereas, someone who does it for a living, might have different feelings (they could be agitated in their personal life, etc).

the trick is to become emotionally detached. you see it all the time in finance. how many times have you heard large numbers thrown around casually in money management?

but its a lot different when something is your baby. its about managing the emotional variance. and thats why you need to be lucky.

Re: - Thisisgoingtobebig.com - Admitting that you have no idea what you're doing

jeremystein — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 12:07:52 -0000

i couldve just as easily picked backgammon-- which has much more information, you get to see the entire board, and you can calculate the probabilistic distribution of dice rolls. its just that there are so many interesting checker plays, and most of them are so statistically close that its hard to know which one is correct. and the smallest margin will have an enormous impact later in the game. [side note, in online poker, you do have more access to information-- you get to see mucked hands]

the problem is that you are oversimplifying. there are just as many unknowns. its not just about having a plan. there are so many skills you have to learn along the way, perhaps management, hiring, etc, that will have just as much, if not more, of an impact on the final outcome. there are a lot of moving parts. and those are things that many people have to be lucky to learn as they go along. its all about longevity. bad habits can be fixed in the long run. but you need to have that runway first.

Re: - Thisisgoingtobebig.com - Admitting that you have no idea what you're doing

jeremystein — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 10:16:23 -0000

"What they're really betting on is your ability to learn"

its a lot more complicated. startups are a game of accidents. few things are more terrifying than willingly playing a high stakes game of accidents, consider the example below:

ive had tremendous success playing games of accidents in the past-- gambling games (backgammon, poker, etc). in gambling games, you have a general idea of the rules, the structure of the game, but when you are just starting, you don't really know what youre doing. in poker, when youre just starting, theres no easy way for me to know if my massive raise with 66 out of position (a bad starting hand) was a bad move. why? because maybe everyone folded because they werent comfortable playing a hand just as marginal. if i continually make that mistake-- and win! i will develop bad habits. and this happens all the time. you make money by doing something you dont understand.

consider the four stages of competence: http://en.wikipedia.org/wik...

in games of accidents, you can quickly develop bad habits as you move between the conscious and unconscious stages. and this happens quickly. everyone who plays is in the pattern recognition game, and if you win with 66 a few times early on, you have probably just developed a bad habit. but in the moment, it is next to impossible to recognize this bad habit. In a given situation, everyone is predisposed to act in a specific way. I can't all of a sudden use a strategy that I don't know is a good strategy. If I am in a situation where I will make a mistake, I can't decide not to because I am unconsciously competent.

whats worse, emotion is often a major decision driver. its called tilt. what happens when i revert to the mean with 66? maybe i want to try and make up my losses by overcompensating in another area. that will most likely result in more losses-- but again, if it doesnt, and i get lucky again? i dont know it yet, but im probably headed for some catastrophic event in the future that i wont be able to fix. its nearly impossible to separate emotion from decisions when a large portion of your net worth is on the line.

learning in the short run comes down to luck. either you get lucky, make the right plays, and develop the proper habits, or you dont. its so hard to know if what you are doing is correct as you go along.

i have a theory that states all gamblers are extremely lucky in the beginning of their careers. they run supernaturally. some event happened, and they make a lot of money. maybe they were lucky enough to learn properly as they went along, and others just had the cards fall their way. nevertheless, something happened that gave them longevity. [It is entirely possible the best gamblers aren't even playing. What happens if they were unlucky in the beginning, went broke, and decided to walk away? If you don't have any form of longevity, there is no way of knowing how good you really are.]

mistaking luck for skill is EXTREMELY dangerous. and if you dont work rigorously on every area of your game, you wont be around long-- even if you do run well in the beginning (http://www.cardrunners.com/....

So, in a game of accidents, there are only three things you can control:

1. The game you play.
2. Your emotional state during the game.
3. The amount of time you play the game.

The good news is that these games are highly measurable. There is a statistical expectancy. The problem is that people are too concerned with how they match up to that in the short run. So, to be successful in these games, you don't just have to be lucky as you go, you also have to reduce the degree that emotion influences your decision.

Startups are no different that gambling games from a philosophical perspective. It is a game of accidents. And investors aren't just betting on your ability to learn as you go, they are betting you will be LUCKY enough to learn as you go. All startups get lucky in the beginning. Some event happens that gives them longevity. But it is the people who are smart enough, and lucky enough to learn, that ultimately succeed.

Re: E-commerce startups

jeremystein — Wed, 15 Aug 2012 19:24:49 -0000

if you compete in an industry with a grey market, consumers are mostly willing to pay higher prices for authenticity, warranties, etc.

Re: StationCreator: Making Internet TV a Reality… Finally

jeremystein — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 10:06:45 -0000

congrats labes!

Re: Crowdfunding

jeremystein — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 09:28:39 -0000

my one qualm with respect to crowd funding is the lack of guidance. as someone starting a company, id much rather raise 500k from a sophisticated investor who can advise me, than 500k from a large crowd who might not be as helpful.

Re: Returning to NYC

jeremystein — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 09:34:39 -0000

nyc could use another cleveland sports fan.

Re: - Website Login

jeremystein — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 08:11:12 -0000

as someone who has been in a similar position, i can say that most of this is not true.

>What you do over the course of your career and, more >importantly, over the course of your life, far outweights a single >play, game, deal, etc.

i had a pretty successful tennis career. but im pretty sure im only remembered for being part of the proverbial "missing three field goals in one game"

>Love inspires others to be the best people possible. Hate >weakens people and makes them shallow. People can never >hate as much as other people can love--so hate will always lose >and eventually go away.

the hate will always be there (10 years later). it just wont show as much.

>You will absolutely get another chance.

probably not. especially if he does not get to the next level.

the reality is that this event will always weigh on him. its something you have to compartmentalize and move on. and i believe only the elite can do that...

Re: http://fredwilson.vc/post/7758189992

jeremystein — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 07:54:48 -0000

im unimpressed by his mixtape.

if you like a good mix check out wugazi: http://wugazi.tumblr.com/

Re: Are Entrepreneurs Born or Taught?

jeremystein — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 22:59:19 -0000

i also went to babson.

i think eps as a major is a load of shit. majoring in eps doesnt mean youll be successful. seems like a waste.

Re: - Thisisgoingtobebig.com - Why is everyone talking about Turntable.fm?

jeremystein — Wed, 22 Jun 2011 10:00:59 -0000

white label.

sell it to bars.

the new jukebox.

Re: http://jamessiminoff.com/post/4718861915

jeremystein — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 11:32:49 -0000

i think its much less about bringing money back here. its more about
leveling the playing field. a temporary ban of online poker will give
casinos time to develop the necessary infrastructure to compete with foreign
companies.

costa rica doesnt sound all that boring...

Re: http://jamessiminoff.com/post/4718861915

jeremystein — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 10:57:27 -0000

as someone who has played online for 6 years, i pay taxes on all of my winnings. everyone i know in the poker world does the same.

its total bs that they are going after this industry. if poker is a concern, why dont we also focus american companies are moving their headquarters to switzerland to avoid paying high corporate taxes?

Re: I want my MTV on Apple TV

jeremystein — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 13:52:16 -0000

I don't think the cable networks should really fear the apple tv or gaming consoles.

The web is largely about human behavior. It was really easy to say that video was going to be a big thing 10 years ago, but it was youtube that discovered people wanted to watch short clips on break at work.

I don't think there is anything out there that can compete with the experience that cable currently provides (bundling, the guide function which might be one of the best discovery tools in existence, etc).

Re: I want my MTV on Apple TV

jeremystein — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 12:00:08 -0000

i actually think msft is in a much better position here. theyve sold nearly 20m xbox units. id bet programming shows up on gaming consoles before the apple tv

Re: - Website Login

jeremystein — Fri, 19 Nov 2010 16:28:46 -0000

congratulations.

Re: My Amateur Analysis of Mail.ru

jeremystein — Tue, 09 Nov 2010 20:30:40 -0000

im a bit confused... you should be working backwards and subtracting from market cap.

ev = market cap - cash and equivalents + debt

Re: Giving Microsoft Office another try

jeremystein — Sun, 07 Nov 2010 20:44:51 -0000

i hope its a full version of excel.

ive had to run vmware for the past few years. excel for mac has always lacked solver.

Re: Being a CEO…

jeremystein — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 09:57:05 -0000

users, customers, employees, and advisors are the only thick skin you need.

as the haters grow, the count in all three categories will as well.

good employees will always have your back. no need to listen to any criticism outside of those circles.