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7 months ago
in Barack & Michelle: The Reshaping of Black American Family Values on Political Intersection
I believe it is with the young, and shaping their psyches that this will have the most impact. Not just little Black kids watching The Obamas, but little kids of all races.
1 year ago
in Who Needs the Clintons? on Jack and Jill Politics
Hillary needs him because she must pay off that 10 million to vendors....BEFORE SHE CAN RUN FOR ANYTHING ELSE.
Obama won DESPITE them and their racebaiting attacks.
Obama won DESPITE them and their racebaiting attacks.
1 year ago
in Friday Open Thread…..yeah, it’s Friday on Jack and Jill Politics
no need to say rape and murder. If you kill a child, it's murder, and they'd get the death penalty anyway. The criminal wouldn't skip the death penalty if he only killed the child and didn't rape it too.
No, I don't think he has any problem with ridding us of child rapists.
I agree with us ridding ourselves of child rapists; I just disagree on the method.
No, I don't think he has any problem with ridding us of child rapists.
I agree with us ridding ourselves of child rapists; I just disagree on the method.
1 year ago
in Obama Vice-Presidential Watch, JJP Style on Jack and Jill Politics
From Marc Ambinder:
Hierarchical Analysis Of The Vote
27 Jun 2008 12:25 pm
Thomas Riehle of RT strategies passes along a hierarchical vote analysis he completed for the Cook Report; he first breaks down the vote for each candidate into seven categories measuring enthusiasm, and then he evaluates how that "hiearchy of intensity" holds up across 50 different subgroups of voters.
Since March, Obama has picked up 15 percentage points worth of support from "strong Democrats," 31 points among women aged 18 to 39, and 14 points among those without college education. McCain has picked up support among voters aged 50-64, women aged 40 to 56 (17 points -- he leads Obama overall by four points now), and independents who aren't leaners. But he's lost support among conservative Republicans -- down to 81% in this poll and Republican women -- 75% support him.
The demographic contours of Obama's base are clear: African Americans, 18 to 34 years olds, younger women, less educated (a shift since the primaries), and among voters on the Pacific Coast, the Midwest and the Great Lakes regions.
McCain has an edge in the South -- and really nowhere else. He and Obama are running (roughly) equal in the West, the farm-mountain region and even the Northeast. McCain has a 16 point edge among evangelical voters; Obama has a 19 point edge among voters who aren't born again. He's getting about one in four former Clinton voters and ties Obama among women with college degrees.
Hierarchical Analysis Of The Vote
27 Jun 2008 12:25 pm
Thomas Riehle of RT strategies passes along a hierarchical vote analysis he completed for the Cook Report; he first breaks down the vote for each candidate into seven categories measuring enthusiasm, and then he evaluates how that "hiearchy of intensity" holds up across 50 different subgroups of voters.
Since March, Obama has picked up 15 percentage points worth of support from "strong Democrats," 31 points among women aged 18 to 39, and 14 points among those without college education. McCain has picked up support among voters aged 50-64, women aged 40 to 56 (17 points -- he leads Obama overall by four points now), and independents who aren't leaners. But he's lost support among conservative Republicans -- down to 81% in this poll and Republican women -- 75% support him.
The demographic contours of Obama's base are clear: African Americans, 18 to 34 years olds, younger women, less educated (a shift since the primaries), and among voters on the Pacific Coast, the Midwest and the Great Lakes regions.
McCain has an edge in the South -- and really nowhere else. He and Obama are running (roughly) equal in the West, the farm-mountain region and even the Northeast. McCain has a 16 point edge among evangelical voters; Obama has a 19 point edge among voters who aren't born again. He's getting about one in four former Clinton voters and ties Obama among women with college degrees.
1 year ago
in Obama Vice-Presidential Watch, JJP Style on Jack and Jill Politics
Oh, forgot, all the poll with WOMEN and Obama vs. McCain...takes a lot of the Hillary as VP argument. Very slowly, he is marginalizing them..with kindness and respect.
1 year ago
in Obama Vice-Presidential Watch, JJP Style on Jack and Jill Politics
I have to admit that I was concerned about Hillpatine, but for a few things.
1. Obama's recent polling.
Look at his polling in EVERY swing state.
2. Obama's recent polling in places where a Democrat hasn't won in like, FOREVER.(Virginia, Indiana, ALASKA) His closeness in those states is terrific.
3. In ALL the polls with the independents, they reiterate that they would NOT support Obama if he had Hillpatine on the ticket.
Between these three things..
Let's just be for real...if his polling wasn't going well, we'd be hearing a whole other story. That we're not, AND because Obama hasn't really been picking up any Clinton folks, it's becoming more and more clear to them: he plans on winning or losing on his own terms. Time for you to come on board.
1. Obama's recent polling.
Look at his polling in EVERY swing state.
2. Obama's recent polling in places where a Democrat hasn't won in like, FOREVER.(Virginia, Indiana, ALASKA) His closeness in those states is terrific.
3. In ALL the polls with the independents, they reiterate that they would NOT support Obama if he had Hillpatine on the ticket.
Between these three things..
Let's just be for real...if his polling wasn't going well, we'd be hearing a whole other story. That we're not, AND because Obama hasn't really been picking up any Clinton folks, it's becoming more and more clear to them: he plans on winning or losing on his own terms. Time for you to come on board.
1 year ago
in Friday Open Thread…..yeah, it’s Friday on Jack and Jill Politics
Obama's support for the Death Penalty for child rape was in
The Audacity of Hope:
Here you go, found it at Andrew Sullivan's.:
Obama's support for the execution of child rapists wasn't invented for the presidential election; it dates back to The Audacity of Hope, where he wrote:
"While the evidence tells me that the death penalty does little to deter crime, I believe there are some crimes--mass murder, the rape and murder of a child--so heinous, so beyond the pale, that the community is justified in expressing the full measure of its outrage by meting out the ultimate punishment."
The Audacity of Hope:
Here you go, found it at Andrew Sullivan's.:
Obama's support for the execution of child rapists wasn't invented for the presidential election; it dates back to The Audacity of Hope, where he wrote:
"While the evidence tells me that the death penalty does little to deter crime, I believe there are some crimes--mass murder, the rape and murder of a child--so heinous, so beyond the pale, that the community is justified in expressing the full measure of its outrage by meting out the ultimate punishment."
1 year ago
in Friday Open Thread…..yeah, it’s Friday on Jack and Jill Politics
on the second amendment, it was clear from yesterday:
I agreed with the Supreme Court decision.
Jill Tubman did not.
I like that kind of diversity here at JJP.
I agreed with the Supreme Court decision.
Jill Tubman did not.
I like that kind of diversity here at JJP.
1 year ago
in Friday Open Thread…..yeah, it’s Friday on Jack and Jill Politics
truthseeker,
Separate FISA from the other stuff.
FISA, Ok, be pissed about. I mean, on its own, yeah, folks should be pissed.
But, this other stuff people are lumping in...i'm not feeling it. I feel a pileup.
And, there are those who believe JJP isn't strong on FISA. The CPL has done 3 posts on FISA, hasn't she?
I've told you I disagree with Obama on the issue. CPL's made her feelings perfectly clear. We aren't ' in the tank' for Obama on this issue.
Separate FISA from the other stuff.
FISA, Ok, be pissed about. I mean, on its own, yeah, folks should be pissed.
But, this other stuff people are lumping in...i'm not feeling it. I feel a pileup.
And, there are those who believe JJP isn't strong on FISA. The CPL has done 3 posts on FISA, hasn't she?
I've told you I disagree with Obama on the issue. CPL's made her feelings perfectly clear. We aren't ' in the tank' for Obama on this issue.
1 year ago
in Friday Open Thread…..yeah, it’s Friday on Jack and Jill Politics
Re the death penalty for child rape. I wonder if Obama was answering like a politician, or the father of 2 young girls. Sasha, I think is about the same age that little girl was when she was raped by her stepfather. I can't imagine what else he could have said... I guess he could have talked about the death penalty escalating rape into murderer.
I don't get why folks are having a hard time with Obama over this. Now, there are things you can disagree with him on, but, for a person to believe that if you rape a child, you should expect to be paid back by society, I'm not feeling the reason for this discomfort.
You can argue about constitutional issues, but THIS group of criminals? not worth making into a philosophical discussion.
For those of you who dislike his stance on FISA - I.do.too.
I'm not liking what I'm feeling from O lately. It doesn't feel like bravery or boldness or confidence...it feels like excessive calculation. Maybe he's carrying unresolved anger from the primary, and it's jamming the signal..LOL!
Him not sticking up for child rapists, or gun control laws is 'lack of bravery'?
Come on.
The FISA issue, I grant you. Like I said, it bothers me too.
I don't get why folks are having a hard time with Obama over this. Now, there are things you can disagree with him on, but, for a person to believe that if you rape a child, you should expect to be paid back by society, I'm not feeling the reason for this discomfort.
You can argue about constitutional issues, but THIS group of criminals? not worth making into a philosophical discussion.
For those of you who dislike his stance on FISA - I.do.too.
I'm not liking what I'm feeling from O lately. It doesn't feel like bravery or boldness or confidence...it feels like excessive calculation. Maybe he's carrying unresolved anger from the primary, and it's jamming the signal..LOL!
Him not sticking up for child rapists, or gun control laws is 'lack of bravery'?
Come on.
The FISA issue, I grant you. Like I said, it bothers me too.
1 year ago
in "I Bit My Tongue" on Jack and Jill Politics
FISA,
I disagree with Obama on it. I do blame the House more, because it never should have come for a vote.
I'm not going to have deep issues with him over the death penalty ruling. I don't agree with it, but that's only because I'd have the pedophile killed in prison by other prisoners.
I disagree with Obama on it. I do blame the House more, because it never should have come for a vote.
I'm not going to have deep issues with him over the death penalty ruling. I don't agree with it, but that's only because I'd have the pedophile killed in prison by other prisoners.
1 year ago
in "I Bit My Tongue" on Jack and Jill Politics
With regards to Hillary, found this response over at Politicalinaction.com, and went ' hmmmm''.....
Brian Francis said...
See, I think Obama has just as much leverage over her to force her to address what you're saying.
She must pay back all of those debts to small vendors all over the country. If she doesn't, she has no political future. So that means she would write another check for $10 million to clear the debts out of her personal fortune before she lets them go unpaid.
So, if she doesn't play ball, she is in the hole for another $10 million.
I personally look at it like this....Obama is telling Hillary that at the click of a button he can pay off her debt. But before he does that, he is going to hold it over her head until the convention to ensure that she stays in line. But he is also going to make sure she makes absolutely no noise about VP, which she and her prominent supporters have stopped calling for. Only the fringe nutballs call for it, not the Rendells of the world.
So i think Obama is using her weakness to his advantage very very effectively.
And I think it is why you see Bill Clinton pouting. Obama has them over a barrel.
Brian Francis said...
See, I think Obama has just as much leverage over her to force her to address what you're saying.
She must pay back all of those debts to small vendors all over the country. If she doesn't, she has no political future. So that means she would write another check for $10 million to clear the debts out of her personal fortune before she lets them go unpaid.
So, if she doesn't play ball, she is in the hole for another $10 million.
I personally look at it like this....Obama is telling Hillary that at the click of a button he can pay off her debt. But before he does that, he is going to hold it over her head until the convention to ensure that she stays in line. But he is also going to make sure she makes absolutely no noise about VP, which she and her prominent supporters have stopped calling for. Only the fringe nutballs call for it, not the Rendells of the world.
So i think Obama is using her weakness to his advantage very very effectively.
And I think it is why you see Bill Clinton pouting. Obama has them over a barrel.
1 year ago
in Barack Obama On Cover of Rolling Stone on Jack and Jill Politics
He stopped fighting the gray.
1 year ago
in Recognizing the Pattern…and The Apology that really Isn’t on Jack and Jill Politics
The whole ' misinterpretation of the English language' one is the one that just makes me stare with the arched eyebrow.
1 year ago
in "I Bit My Tongue" on Jack and Jill Politics
From Marc Ambinder:
Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, Wisconsin
26 Jun 2008 12:40 pm
These four large sample surveys from Quinnipiac....
COLORADO: Obama 49 - McCain 44
MICHIGAN: Obama 48 - McCain 42
MINNESOTA: Obama 54 - McCain 37
WISCONSIN: Obama 52 - McCain 39
suggest that the make-up and mood of the 2008 presidential electorate is right now perfectly trimmed to embrace Barack Obama. As Quinnipiac puts it, "[a]n emerging Democratic coalition of women, minorities and younger voters is propelling Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to leads." As with every statewide poll, we must wave the caution flag: these numbers can and probably will change over time.
At least the McCain campaign knows who they can target: white conservative independents, especially men. But even as McCain performs solidly with that group, the composition of the electorate is changing so much that they can't help him. (Obama, for example, is doing well with Hispanics but is doing extremely well with younger Hispanics.) Obama wins independents; he does weakest among them in Michigan, but Republicans in that state are demoralized. Some of the more interesting nuggets: In Colorado, Obama and McCain split the white vote and almost split the vote of those 55 and older; same with Michigan. The gender gap in Minnesota is huge: Obama leads by 26 points among women and seven points among men and double digits among white voters. In Wisconsin, Obama even leads among white men -- 51 to 40%. The polls have margins of error of no more than +/- 2.5%.
Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, Wisconsin
26 Jun 2008 12:40 pm
These four large sample surveys from Quinnipiac....
COLORADO: Obama 49 - McCain 44
MICHIGAN: Obama 48 - McCain 42
MINNESOTA: Obama 54 - McCain 37
WISCONSIN: Obama 52 - McCain 39
suggest that the make-up and mood of the 2008 presidential electorate is right now perfectly trimmed to embrace Barack Obama. As Quinnipiac puts it, "[a]n emerging Democratic coalition of women, minorities and younger voters is propelling Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to leads." As with every statewide poll, we must wave the caution flag: these numbers can and probably will change over time.
At least the McCain campaign knows who they can target: white conservative independents, especially men. But even as McCain performs solidly with that group, the composition of the electorate is changing so much that they can't help him. (Obama, for example, is doing well with Hispanics but is doing extremely well with younger Hispanics.) Obama wins independents; he does weakest among them in Michigan, but Republicans in that state are demoralized. Some of the more interesting nuggets: In Colorado, Obama and McCain split the white vote and almost split the vote of those 55 and older; same with Michigan. The gender gap in Minnesota is huge: Obama leads by 26 points among women and seven points among men and double digits among white voters. In Wisconsin, Obama even leads among white men -- 51 to 40%. The polls have margins of error of no more than +/- 2.5%.
1 year ago
in Joe Lieberman’s Got to Go on Jack and Jill Politics
Oh, the night of the election, the locks should be changed on his office.
1 year ago
in "I Bit My Tongue" on Jack and Jill Politics
'Bit his tongue?'
He should have gone GANGSTA on them.
GANGSTA.
LAID.DOWN.THE.LAW.
They had until the end of the meeting to Get Jesus.
IF he left that meeting without their support.
They could count on him to support ANY primary challenger that came their way.
LAID.DOWN.THE.LAW.
He should have gone GANGSTA on them.
GANGSTA.
LAID.DOWN.THE.LAW.
They had until the end of the meeting to Get Jesus.
IF he left that meeting without their support.
They could count on him to support ANY primary challenger that came their way.
LAID.DOWN.THE.LAW.
1 year ago
in The Obamas Are NOT Elite - And, That Is Fine With Me on Jack and Jill Politics
Not that Obama is hostile to the Black Elite. Valerie Jarrett is one, as well as John Rogers, Jr. among others that he's known for years. But, no, he and Michelle would not be considered ' Our Kind of People'.
1 year ago
in The Obamas Are NOT Elite - And, That Is Fine With Me on Jack and Jill Politics
IMO Michelle Obama is not going to rate a mention from that crowd even if she does become First Lady. She doesn't rate a mention now as a Senator's wife. She doesn't even rate a mention as the wife of the presumptive Democratic nominee. IMO some people think Michelle Obama is a little too "common." I wouldn't hold my breath.
town,
I dunno.. I don't see how she could be shunned if she actually becomes First Lady.
But, we will see...LOL
town,
I dunno.. I don't see how she could be shunned if she actually becomes First Lady.
But, we will see...LOL
1 year ago
in The Obamas Are NOT Elite - And, That Is Fine With Me on Jack and Jill Politics
What cracks me up is that they think OBAMA is 'Uppity'.
Lord, they haven't met 'Uppity'.
They are NOT impressed with Obama having a White Mama.
Channeling my best 'Our Kind of People' voice:
But...but...his White people weren't even PROFESSIONALS!
BWA HA HA HA HA
You know I don't lie on this.
Now, will Lawrence Otis Graham be true to his Edith Wharton leanings, and leave Barack and Michelle out of his Black Elite Listing?
I dunno.
Lord, they haven't met 'Uppity'.
They are NOT impressed with Obama having a White Mama.
Channeling my best 'Our Kind of People' voice:
But...but...his White people weren't even PROFESSIONALS!
BWA HA HA HA HA
You know I don't lie on this.
Now, will Lawrence Otis Graham be true to his Edith Wharton leanings, and leave Barack and Michelle out of his Black Elite Listing?
I dunno.
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