DISQUS

lead where? off a cliff?

it really doesn't matter if big money catches andy's work, big money isn't buying or selling on fundamentals right now, big money is selling everything under the sun into strength. it's a self fulfilling prophecy, the markets are going much lower because big money wants them to. Wall street is childish, if they're hurting, every american MUST hurt with them, it's all a game played by childish egotistical maniacs. it's not a place to invest your money anymore, it's a place to gamble-double etf's, not risky enough for you? how about triple eft's?

no post today??

uhhhh...

yeah.

another flip flop...

it wasn't but two months ago you were bad mouthing the company for quality issues...basically stating it was the beginning of the end for them and their "brand" of high end, reliable, premium, products...

i dunno, maybe just short covering rallies at days end?

I'm minting money buying puts and shorting stocks on every bounce and then covering by days end. no reason to hold anything more than a day in tis market.

Zach,

wtf are you talking about here?

"Besides the earnings report, there’s a wild-card metric that investors will be tuned into, and that’s the number of iPhones Apple has sold so far this year. So, if you haven’t been living under a rock then you know that number is 10 million. The consensus estimate is 4 million units at the end of Q3. That would mean Apple would have to sell 6 million 3G iPhones to meet their own guidance."

first off, this is q4 they are reporting, not q3.
second, the "10 million number" included first generation phones and was apples projection, according to some, for the calendar year 2008. At a minimum, if it was for fiscal 2008, they would not have to sell 6 million to meet their own guidance, they sold plenty of edge phones to support these numbers, not just 3g. So how you arrive at 4 million/6miion is beyond me.
And you are an authority on apple? You don't even know what quarter it is.....maybe you should re-read the mumbo jumbo up top and clarify what you are trying to say.

rainy day??

have you looked outside lately??

dope.

sure it is, go back and read your blog posts as well as your apple echosphere posts...sometimes you say two different thngs the same day....like investing, you hedge.

on aug 11th you called "the bull is back" and then numerous bottom calls after that.....you don't know whether you are coming or going sometimes, Zach--you just love to hear yourself talk. You's make a great lawyer, you can talk your way out of a paper bag. Most see through this though, regardless of what your "visitor" numbers say--your blog and board is basically defunct. How many people aswered your rate cut poll? 6?

zach is an expert on bottoms, he's called at least 4 this past summer that never materialized, as well as an end to the bar market, as well as....as well as...

zach just likes to hear himself talk--so now he'll pile on the panic train.

http://www.zacharybass.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...

yeah, but beanie, rbs called for a meltdown later this summer after a rise through July...so this wouldn't be the meltdown they refer

welcome to last week, sunfun...the story has ben posted 1,000 times nd has already been changed by Sacconaghi..

Last week the bears over did it and signaled exhaustion. Just look at the weekly chart and you can see the potential significance of a 2300 bottom. Fundamentals stink and that H/S pattern looks ugly, however the chart says the bulls are gonna give it a go never the less. Risk/reward suggests the bears need to think about moving aside for now.......

I keep hearing all this crap about the $vix and ne fear in the market.....lol..

There are other fear measures besides $vix. Case in point:
there is 1 new high today in the nyse. and a whopping 4 in the nasdaq. I have never seen these numbers this low ever. Throw in crazy high CPC and TRIN ma's, and super-high new lows.
Oh and 5 out of 6 nasdaq stocks are below their 200 MA; 4 out of 5 in the NYSE. Seems there are sufficient markers to indicate fear.


Puuuleease.

I hear ya, the dreaded afternoon selloff...almost like cloackwork.

Based on what? Your gut? oex? the fact that we plummet every afternoon??lol

read my post wayyyy down below.

Yeah, I know it's close and yeah I know nothing with the market is ever in stone. But the chart is telling us that we are going to get a trend changing bottom just below yesterday's lows......2300 makes for a reasonable target for the reversal print.
The wkly 200ma is the bulls last stand and apparently they're gonna take it. Theoretically the reversal off this bear exhaustion signal will be able to take us to new highs.


we shall see.......first we bounce, then we diverge, and then we reverse trend. Of course there is the question of will a bottom stick but I'm thinking it probably will. fwiw - 2850 per the system is not viewed as THE TOP of the BULL. If that holds then so will this coming bottom.

So if I haven't sold yet, now is not the time.........I'd wait for the bottom, then wait for the upside acid test that is sure to take place about 2600. If the bears failed at that point to derail the bulls, then your good to go. I suppose yesterday's telling signal shouldn't be too much of a surprise regardless of the outcome. Afterall, we are still in a BULL market till we're not anymore........lol


Personally, I'll keep my bear suit on till we diverge below yesterday's low but you can bet once we do I switch from bear to bull on this market. See my diatribe in yesterday's thread with solar fun

well, I give you three scenarios and I say you gotta respect the bear until we see otherwise, part one of that otherwise was today...you? a nice even 2,00o 0n the naz with no explanation...and you're laughing at me??

lol..at what?

I look at the weekly's...and today to me signals bear exhaustion...doessn't mean it's the bottom, we may gap down or trade down at some point, but my system tells me today was exhaustive, now I look for divergance, what would you call bear exhaustion, a 300 point UP day??lol..
vix is also telling...

My take on th mareket for what it's worth:
* 2350 +/- ........... soft landing scenario with the wkly 200 ma as support.
* 2100 +/- ........... system target.

* 1925 ............... H/S target.


Take your pick. Scenario # 1 retains the 3100 + target to the upside...... Scenario # 3 would clean up all " bad behavior " anomalies. Scenario # 2 is a basic guideline target at this point. Ultimately we have to watch and see what happens where, so till then one has to respect the bear view till we get some kind of a bottom.

earlier this week, I felt that if we continue down from 2400, the bears will almost certainly exhaust themselves and we could see a trend changing reversal print of 2300 or so, although it would take a couple weeks to play out..........while not the most probable scenario I reccomend not to fully discount it. If we moved up from there, the indicators can reset and with over head resistance sitting betwix 2580 - 2600, we would be presented with an excellent opportunity to sell this market..................this scenario favors the BEAR and all but eliminates a 2300 bottom.


* so the question is : BEAR or no BEAR ?...........guess we'll find out soon enough, becasue today we saw bear exhaustion..........if today or tommorrow's low gives way to a bounce, then we look for divergence.

* exhaustion + divergence = reversal

and ultimately, today's TA is indicating the "soft-landing" scenario lives...

K.I.S.S.

Go apple, eveyone use GWB'S rebate to buy a mac air or iphone, my wife can't live w/o hers and now ALL the yenta's want one..lol..

Beanie, you still in palo Alto? I have family in Palo Alto, Los Altos and Burlingame.

doubt apple garmin, apple's in bed with google...bigger things ahead.

BOOM!

first and foremost......we are in a downtrend and nasdaq 2100+/- is a reasonably expected target at this time. The chart says to be a bear till it doesn't anymore. I was merely outlining the possibilities for bigger picture implications, based on any strong moves during next week's OE.

In a technical nut shell, if the bears get greedy and tank us next week, they exhaust and we soon get a bottom that could/should take us to new highs. On the flip side, a continued bounce and chances are we get no bottom at 2350+/-.

That said, a bigger picture fade off any good move next week is the basic outline. Up and the BEAR continues while down and the BEAR gets cut short. Let's see what happens.

Beanie, thanks for supporting my apple stock..lol...buy TWO, it's not the earnings Im worried about, it's the forward guidance!!

anyone hava an idea how low apple's going?

my account is down to 117k from 210, I can't afford much more pain...

CSIQ going to $30??