DISQUS

You don't really mention the cost of producing these web technologies. I'm not really an expert but it seems to me that these costs must be coming down. This of course has been offset by people demanding more complexity. The cost however of providing old web 1.0 technologies like email and web sites seems to be fast approaching zero. I can't imagine that I'd ever have to pay for an email account again. The technology's invented. All Gmail is providing me is server space and a bit of ongoing R&D.; It's hard to charge people a fee for something which is costing you very little at that particular time but which cost you a lot 5 years ago.

The main site is down but you can still login at https://web6.omnidrive.com/web2/login.htm
When I get a chance I'll be taking the backwards step of downloading all my stuff onto an external hard drive until my faith returns

My hotmail contact list was my most complete social network but I gave it up for Gmail a few months ago and now it's out of date. Gmail automatically adds any addressee to contacts when you send them an email so my Gmail contacts list is full of random people. Google seem to be trying to get round this by using Chat contacts which require an extra step of authentication.

The key I think lies with standards and interoperability. Phone's are completely interoperable. I can phone anyone regardless of what phone company or phone they use. Email is completely interoperable and standards based. I can email anyone regardless of what email client they use. IM is slowly (very slowly) going the same way. Unfortunately standards and inoperability dissipate value for large walled gardens like facebook and Skype. It's the way it has to go though.

I think it will actually complement Wikipedia. Finding high quality, peer-reviewed articles on the web to support Wikipedia articles is currently really hard. If they become a success, knols could become an invaluable reference for Wikipedia articles.

I think it might have some business applications. Here's my (slightly contrived) situation http://www.bookbook.com.au/wordpress/?p=97

Unlike music there is a huge body of literature which is out of copyright. You could read forever and never infringe a copyright. You don't really need BitTorrent either; War and Peace is only 3MB.

The key here will be epaper technology. Good quality, low cost eBook readers could deliver the death blow to print media.

Facebook is a big flash in the pan in my opinion. I haven't quite worked out what will replace it yet but something will for sure. All those apps are so annoying. I haven't found one yet which is actually useful.