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Kontra
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1 week ago
in Mobile (App) Development: Android's Missed Opportunity? on Continuations
Precisely. I've explored the platform effect in:
iPhone OS 3: The moat strategy vs. features-fetishism
http://counternotions.com/2009/03/19/moat/
Apple The Storekeeper
http://counternotions.com/2009/05/19/storekeeper/
iPhone OS 3: The moat strategy vs. features-fetishism
http://counternotions.com/2009/03/19/moat/
Apple The Storekeeper
http://counternotions.com/2009/05/19/storekeeper/
1 reply
albert
Great posts -- really enjoyed reading them. Completely agree on the huge value of the payment and actions for a large number of consumers.
2 weeks ago
in Building Successful Long Term Relationships on A VC
Does the available data indicate whether venture investment is 'a long term investment like marriage' or a weekend date?
1 reply
fredwilson
Five to seven year hold periods are average and I've got a bunch of deals I've been working on for more than a decade
1 month ago
in Term Sheet Manners on A VC
Also to be considered: kids learn by observing first, hopefully followed by doing second. You need to let them watch you do it, perhaps several times. They observe and absorb what they need: better if it's from a pro first.
We've killed the notion of apprenticeship in this country, but seeing how it's done right first is still fundamental to learning to do it right yourself later.
Lawyered markup is like procedural programming that tells you exactly what to do, negotiating on intent at a higher level of abstraction first is like declarative programming that gives you the logic but not the control flow. So in that sense, lawyered markup is like premature optimization: refines language but loses communication.
We've killed the notion of apprenticeship in this country, but seeing how it's done right first is still fundamental to learning to do it right yourself later.
Lawyered markup is like procedural programming that tells you exactly what to do, negotiating on intent at a higher level of abstraction first is like declarative programming that gives you the logic but not the control flow. So in that sense, lawyered markup is like premature optimization: refines language but loses communication.
2 replies
fredwilson
I learned VC via an apprentice model. I'm a big fan
Miss Xu
A few points.
1) totally agree that apprenticeship is so crucial in any field. I'm grateful to my managers that kindly but firmly re-directed me during my years in corporate America.
2) Perhaps only with the exception of where one's life is in danger, face to face is always better. Body language is so crucial and sadly, missed so frequently in our electronic world. Barring face to face, Skype or video conferencing serves as a nice stop gap solution (you know, when it's functioning :) )
3) I try to avoid writing anything negative down until absolutely necessary. It's just too easy for the other party to read, reread, and get angrier about the negative aspects. Since this isn't really avoidable in many situations, I've found it helpful to bridge some understanding before writing, then at least it's a review of what's been said (and more likely within the proper context / tone).
1) totally agree that apprenticeship is so crucial in any field. I'm grateful to my managers that kindly but firmly re-directed me during my years in corporate America.
2) Perhaps only with the exception of where one's life is in danger, face to face is always better. Body language is so crucial and sadly, missed so frequently in our electronic world. Barring face to face, Skype or video conferencing serves as a nice stop gap solution (you know, when it's functioning :) )
3) I try to avoid writing anything negative down until absolutely necessary. It's just too easy for the other party to read, reread, and get angrier about the negative aspects. Since this isn't really avoidable in many situations, I've found it helpful to bridge some understanding before writing, then at least it's a review of what's been said (and more likely within the proper context / tone).
1 month ago
in Social Media Rules For Journalists on A VC
Why?
1 reply
fredwilson
Same reason you don't want to see your local deli go out of business
3 months ago
in That's Only Ten Lines Of Code on A VC
"I've heard many people say they could build twitter in a weekend"
Well, that's what long weekends are for, innit?
If my history is correct, it's ironic that twitter was the progeny of Odeo which was essentially steamrolled by iTunes in an era where everybody and his brother was positioning as the destination for podcast aggregation. Podcast aggregation as an intellectual challenge is fairly trivial. Scaling it is decidedly not. iTunes had it, Odeo didn't. Kudos to Evan for recognizing it early.
Well, that's what long weekends are for, innit?
If my history is correct, it's ironic that twitter was the progeny of Odeo which was essentially steamrolled by iTunes in an era where everybody and his brother was positioning as the destination for podcast aggregation. Podcast aggregation as an intellectual challenge is fairly trivial. Scaling it is decidedly not. iTunes had it, Odeo didn't. Kudos to Evan for recognizing it early.
1 reply
3 months ago
in Financial McCarthyism on A VC
"$50-100mm a year ago are worth $25-50mm today"
Sure, but today's $25-50MM can buy a lot more than what it could a year ago as well.
"These are complex instruments"
This is very much debatable. The underlying math and model complexity is one thing, but these are in fact extraordinary times where you have enormous leverage over the endpoints of these contracts by the government. Once inevitable default is put squarely on the table, you'd be amazed how simple these instruments become to all counterparties and holders. But this is a long discussion.
Sure, but today's $25-50MM can buy a lot more than what it could a year ago as well.
"These are complex instruments"
This is very much debatable. The underlying math and model complexity is one thing, but these are in fact extraordinary times where you have enormous leverage over the endpoints of these contracts by the government. Once inevitable default is put squarely on the table, you'd be amazed how simple these instruments become to all counterparties and holders. But this is a long discussion.
2 replies
fredwilson
Good topics for discussion, both of them
Some things have gone down in price as much as everyone's wealth (stocks and
possibly real estate)
But not food or a college eductation
Again, no reason to cry for anyone with that kind of money, but it's just
interesting to note what has come down along with wealth and what has not
You may be right about these instruments. I am not as close to this issue as
you probably are.
Some things have gone down in price as much as everyone's wealth (stocks and
possibly real estate)
But not food or a college eductation
Again, no reason to cry for anyone with that kind of money, but it's just
interesting to note what has come down along with wealth and what has not
You may be right about these instruments. I am not as close to this issue as
you probably are.
JLM
The guys I feel sorry for are the guys who are 75-100 years old who saved their money, invested it wisely and now have had their net worths cut by 50% because of this mess.
They have absolutely no opportunity to catch up and it will impact their life styles in a huge way.
They have had 15-20 years of investment appreciation stolen from them by some 25-30 year old kids with mousse in their hair.
Maybe just one symbolic beheading would be OK?
They have absolutely no opportunity to catch up and it will impact their life styles in a huge way.
They have had 15-20 years of investment appreciation stolen from them by some 25-30 year old kids with mousse in their hair.
Maybe just one symbolic beheading would be OK?
3 months ago
in Financial McCarthyism on A VC
In deconstructing catastrophic events, the more effective way is not to ask what failed, but what succeeded. IOW, if you've already personally made, say, $50-100MM, where's the "collapse"?
1 reply
fredwilson
Well a lot of people who were worth $50-100mm a year ago are worth $25-50mm
today
Now that's still a boatload of money, but very few were spared in this
meltdown
today
Now that's still a boatload of money, but very few were spared in this
meltdown
3 months ago
in The Book Market Stares At Ubiquity on A VC
Once you "engage" with a book, its static, unitary nature is disrupted. You slice and dice it in whichever way it makes sense to you.
That's like going from dumbphones to smartphones, at which point the platform that supports all the interactions you might want to perform becomes a crucial factor. Sure, (better engineered) Nokia radios can perhaps make more reliable calls than, say, iPhones, but in 2009, is that all you want from a "phone"? Black and white screen maybe easier on the eyes, but for *engagement* Kindle is inadequate, as you found out.
Amazon is still thinking like a retailer (of books), which is their business. I hate to say the words, but there's a need for more "general purpose" devices that can provide a richer, more connected, more engaging experience.
That's like going from dumbphones to smartphones, at which point the platform that supports all the interactions you might want to perform becomes a crucial factor. Sure, (better engineered) Nokia radios can perhaps make more reliable calls than, say, iPhones, but in 2009, is that all you want from a "phone"? Black and white screen maybe easier on the eyes, but for *engagement* Kindle is inadequate, as you found out.
Amazon is still thinking like a retailer (of books), which is their business. I hate to say the words, but there's a need for more "general purpose" devices that can provide a richer, more connected, more engaging experience.
1 reply
fredwilson
I totally agree
3 months ago
in The Book Market Stares At Ubiquity on A VC
First, you say: "I am going to have a hard time going back to books"
Then: "I'm with you on the need to engage with media."
So, which one is it? :-)
I know you believe "textbooks" are in the process of being reconstructed, why not the very notion of what a "book" is, as delivered today by Kindle?
The more significant disruption is not Kindle's portable reader but the (longer term) re-definition of what a "book" is. Or more accurately its disappearance. From a static entity to a dynamic aggregation within an ever-changing context.
Most non-fiction books, for example, are obsolete within an extremely short time after their "publication." This will be shown to be unsustainable in the near future.
If I'm right, a limited-purpose device like Kindle will prove to be woefully inadequate to support such dynamism and contextual interaction.
So you're actually right, you won't be going back to books, because they'll be all about engagement. :-)
Then: "I'm with you on the need to engage with media."
So, which one is it? :-)
I know you believe "textbooks" are in the process of being reconstructed, why not the very notion of what a "book" is, as delivered today by Kindle?
The more significant disruption is not Kindle's portable reader but the (longer term) re-definition of what a "book" is. Or more accurately its disappearance. From a static entity to a dynamic aggregation within an ever-changing context.
Most non-fiction books, for example, are obsolete within an extremely short time after their "publication." This will be shown to be unsustainable in the near future.
If I'm right, a limited-purpose device like Kindle will prove to be woefully inadequate to support such dynamism and contextual interaction.
So you're actually right, you won't be going back to books, because they'll be all about engagement. :-)
1 reply
fredwilson
Hi Kontra
I'm glad to see you commenting again here
When I think of "engaging with" media, it means taking something, like a
quote, a paragraph, or even a chapter, and annotating it and sharing it with
others
I do that with music, photos, and basic news and blogs all the time on my
tumblog at fredwilson.vc
I can't do that easily with a book, although I do it at times by literally
retyping the whole thing into tumblr or this blog
That's what I was thinking about
I'm glad to see you commenting again here
When I think of "engaging with" media, it means taking something, like a
quote, a paragraph, or even a chapter, and annotating it and sharing it with
others
I do that with music, photos, and basic news and blogs all the time on my
tumblog at fredwilson.vc
I can't do that easily with a book, although I do it at times by literally
retyping the whole thing into tumblr or this blog
That's what I was thinking about
4 months ago
in Hacking Education (continued) on A VC
@antrod: "...a big company where you might hire [35-40] many engineers in one quarter."
It would be a mistake to assume that the "education problem" can be solved in a vacuum.
There's unfortunately a coordination factor wherein such industrial-age behemoths that require the hiring of so many engineers may well be ill structured for an era of reformed education/learning. IOW, would Vista have been a better OS and released on time if they had doubled the number of developers working on it, and all from Fred's alma mater? I think credentialism will live on (as it's quite ancient), but the tokens for credentials will shift.
There's a huge range of personnel in large organizations, however, whose jobs can, should and will be automated or rendered redundant. And that's as much a political problem as it's technological.
It would be a mistake to assume that the "education problem" can be solved in a vacuum.
There's unfortunately a coordination factor wherein such industrial-age behemoths that require the hiring of so many engineers may well be ill structured for an era of reformed education/learning. IOW, would Vista have been a better OS and released on time if they had doubled the number of developers working on it, and all from Fred's alma mater? I think credentialism will live on (as it's quite ancient), but the tokens for credentials will shift.
There's a huge range of personnel in large organizations, however, whose jobs can, should and will be automated or rendered redundant. And that's as much a political problem as it's technological.
1 reply
antrod
@kevinprentiss I agree Google (and LinkedIn) are the new resume. Notice though that this doesn't necessarily help with accreditation and credentialing— it is more like a reference on steroids.
@Kontra I also agree that we have some fat left in the big corporations (though this recession is helping to take care of that nicely), but there are still projects that require loads of bodies and there is no way to get around that. You point to Vista which is a whipping boy of bad large teams. But OSX, Ubuntu, and even Windows 7 are examples of products that take a lot of people and end up being great. Let's take the OSX example for a second: in fact those guys are very good at hiring and mentoring Stanford kids, fresh out of the CS program and using them first as interns, then testers, and eventually craftsmen on their core products.
If you were to talk to an Apple recruiter, they would tell you that they *love* the kids from Stanford. I am sure that it is not about the diploma per se, but I remain stuck on this: what is the equivalent high level filtering function on the post-hacked education world?
@Kontra I also agree that we have some fat left in the big corporations (though this recession is helping to take care of that nicely), but there are still projects that require loads of bodies and there is no way to get around that. You point to Vista which is a whipping boy of bad large teams. But OSX, Ubuntu, and even Windows 7 are examples of products that take a lot of people and end up being great. Let's take the OSX example for a second: in fact those guys are very good at hiring and mentoring Stanford kids, fresh out of the CS program and using them first as interns, then testers, and eventually craftsmen on their core products.
If you were to talk to an Apple recruiter, they would tell you that they *love* the kids from Stanford. I am sure that it is not about the diploma per se, but I remain stuck on this: what is the equivalent high level filtering function on the post-hacked education world?
4 months ago
in From Blog To Forum on A VC
Your reference to me at the end of your piece is problematic, as I explained here in detail:
Information vs. Judgment: A VC's dilemma
http://counternotions.com/2009/02/18/judgment/
Information vs. Judgment: A VC's dilemma
http://counternotions.com/2009/02/18/judgment/
1 reply
fredwilson
It's a good discussion. Maybe we can have it over coffee or tea sometime.
I'd like that.
I'd like that.
4 months ago
in Does Apple Have A Blind Spot About Flash? on A VC
Fred Wilson: "...instead of calling me an idiot or stupid"
I haven't read all the comments here to see that but, clearly, this was a most ill-informed, snarky and arrogant post. And you might wonder why VCs get the reputation of impressionable techno-boobs. Hopefully, you have people advising you on platform choices on a strategic level, going beyond press releases. Disappointing.
I haven't read all the comments here to see that but, clearly, this was a most ill-informed, snarky and arrogant post. And you might wonder why VCs get the reputation of impressionable techno-boobs. Hopefully, you have people advising you on platform choices on a strategic level, going beyond press releases. Disappointing.
- 2 points
- Jump to »
fredwilson
kontra - i left you a comment on your post. i don't understand why it came across as snarky but in any case the whole discussion was quite informative.
5 months ago
in Apple asked Google not to use multi-touch in Android, and Google complied on VentureBeat
"Multitouch is so obvious..."
Right. The whole mobile industry had a decade to ship a device comparable to the iPhone, but apparently chose not to. The iPhone was so obvious, two years later there's still no competition. But I digress.
Right. The whole mobile industry had a decade to ship a device comparable to the iPhone, but apparently chose not to. The iPhone was so obvious, two years later there's still no competition. But I digress.
1 reply
Michael
Clearly, the iPhone != the idea of multitouch. Few people argue that the former was innovative, but the idea that someone should own the latter is absurd. It is in fact so absurd that even the often screwed up software patent system doesn't grant apple that right.
See for example here:
http://www.engadget.com/2009/01/28/apple-vs-pal...
See for example here:
http://www.engadget.com/2009/01/28/apple-vs-pal...
5 months ago
in louisgray.com: How Palm Pre Could Change the Game on louisgray.com
"Pre's introduction, website, technology packaging, industrial design, UI, product naming and positioning...down to the flow of its CES presentation were pointedly, but perhaps not surprisingly, Apple-like. Of all the current iPhone competitors, Pre clearly captures the 'soul' of the iPhone as much as any product not-from-Cupertino can. Whatever Pre 'borrows' from the iPhone, it does so not with the brazen indifference of recent iPhone-killers, but with care and purpose."
However:
"Palm is clearly late to iPhone's party. By the time the first Pre is sold, the iPhone will likely have 30 million users in 70+ countries, 15,000 apps, a huge developer and peripherals ecosystem, perhaps a third of the market share and 40% of smartphone revenues. And that's before the next generation iPhone device and OS are introduced."
I explored Pre's chances in:
"Strategic shortcomings of Pre in the post-iPhone era"
http://counternotions.com/2009/01/12/pre/
However:
"Palm is clearly late to iPhone's party. By the time the first Pre is sold, the iPhone will likely have 30 million users in 70+ countries, 15,000 apps, a huge developer and peripherals ecosystem, perhaps a third of the market share and 40% of smartphone revenues. And that's before the next generation iPhone device and OS are introduced."
I explored Pre's chances in:
"Strategic shortcomings of Pre in the post-iPhone era"
http://counternotions.com/2009/01/12/pre/
1 reply
Phil Glockner
Kontra, it would be stating the obvious to say your article is fantastic. I won't even go in to how in-depth, thoughful, and well-written it is. So, before my ego deflates too much, I will say that my article achieved one of the goals I intended when writing it: I get to be exposed to great discussion and thoughts.
Great post. Thank you.
Great post. Thank you.
