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Re: Afternoon Open Thread

djchefron — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:13:24 -0000

peak oil?
Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower
Terry Macalister

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.
'There's suspicion the IEA has been influenced by the US' Link to this audio

In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.

Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.

"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources," he added.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.

The IEA acknowledges the importance of its own figures, boasting on its website: "The IEA governments and industry from all across the globe have come to rely on the World Energy Outlook to provide a consistent basis on which they can formulate policies and design business plans."

The British government, among others, always uses the IEA statistics rather than any of its own to argue that there is little threat to long-term oil supplies.

The IEA said tonight that peak oil critics had often wrongly questioned the accuracy of its figures. A spokesman said it was unable to comment ahead of the 2009 report being released tomorrow.

John Hemming, the MP who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil and gas, said the revelations confirmed his suspicions that the IEA underplayed how quickly the world was running out and this had profound implications for British government energy policy.

He said he had also been contacted by some IEA officials unhappy with its lack of independent scepticism over predictions. "Reliance on IEA reports has been used to justify claims that oil and gas supplies will not peak before 2030. It is clear now that this will not be the case and the IEA figures cannot be relied on," said Hemming.

"This all gives an importance to the Copenhagen [climate change] talks and an urgent need for the UK to move faster towards a more sustainable [lower carbon] economy if it is to avoid severe economic dislocation," he added.

The IEA was established in 1974 after the oil crisis in an attempt to try to safeguard energy supplies to the west. The World Energy Outlook is produced annually under the control of the IEA's chief economist, Fatih Birol, who has defended the projections from earlier outside attack. Peak oil critics have often questioned the IEA figures.

But now IEA sources who have contacted the Guardian say that Birol has increasingly been facing questions about the figures inside the organisation.

Matt Simmons, a respected oil industry expert, has long questioned the decline rates and oil statistics provided by Saudi Arabia on its own fields. He has raised questions about whether peak oil is much closer than many have accepted.

A report by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) last month said worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could "peak" and go into terminal decline before 2020 – but that the government was not facing up to the risk. Steve Sorrell, chief author of the report, said forecasts suggesting oil production will not peak before 2030 were "at best optimistic and at worst implausible".

But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told a conference: "If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets … in the end that would suit no one."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/...

Re: NFL Open Thread

djchefron — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:49:30 -0000

Leave my cubbies out of this

Re: NFL Open Thread

djchefron — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 16:09:57 -0000

Tampa bay might just get their first win.

Re: NFL Open Thread

djchefron — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 14:40:56 -0000

Stick a fork in them.The bears are done. 31 to 7 WTF!!!!

Re: NFL Open Thread

djchefron — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 13:27:31 -0000

The Bears cannot tackle

Re: NFL Open Thread

djchefron — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 13:08:06 -0000

Tommie harris of the Bears just got ejected for punching a player. WTF

Re: Sunday Open Thread

djchefron — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:51:50 -0000

Kucinich is a true Democrat.He wanted single payer and wouldn't compromise.Save your anger for the dummycrats who voted for that taliban abortion amendment and still voted against the bill

Re: Sunday Open Thread

djchefron — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:47:44 -0000

Most progressives agree with a Palestinian state.That dog wont hunt

Re: Sunday Open Thread

djchefron — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:35:44 -0000

2,000-Year-Old Scrolls, Internet-Era Crime
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/08/ny...l?ref=ny...

Early one morning in March, the law banged on the door of an apartment on Thompson Street in Greenwich Village. Investigators had a warrant to arrest Raphael Haim Golb and seize his computer. He was caught red-handed.

Mr. Golb is, or was, a guerrilla fighter in a cyberbrawl over the Dead Sea Scrolls, a war about the origins of 2,000-year-old documents that has consumed the energy of academics around the globe.

He was being arrested for fighting dirty.

Mr. Golb is 49 years old and had 50 e-mail aliases. He used pseudonyms to post on blogs. Under the name of a professor he was trying to undermine, prosecutors charged, Mr. Golb wrote a quasi confession to plagiarism and circulated it among students and officials at New York University.

His purpose, the Manhattan district attorney’s office said, was “to influence and affect debate on the Dead Sea Scrolls, and in order to harass Dead Sea Scrolls scholars who disagree with his viewpoint.”

In the classic 1993 New Yorker cartoon by Peter Steiner, two dogs are perched in front of a computer screen. “On the Internet,” one says to the other, “nobody knows you’re a dog.”

For a while, no one knew that 50 different names in the Dead Sea Scrolls debate were the prolific Mr. Golb, a graduate of Oberlin College who has a law degree from New York University and a doctorate in comparative literature from Harvard (dissertation: “The Problems of Privacy and Trust in Modern Literature, and their Relation to the Idea of Freedom”).

In court papers filed last week, Mr. Golb’s lawyers argued that prosecutors were trying to criminalize the commonplace. Both sides in the Dead Sea Scrolls debate, they said, use “sock puppets” — fake identities — on the Internet to make it seem as if scores of people are arguing a point.

“These bloggers marshaled their legion of sock puppets to engage in intellectual combat with the sock puppets allegedly created by Raphael Golb and others,” the lawyers wrote.

No other creatures in the animal kingdom behave like this, not when the stakes are lower than food or mating or survival. And here’s a bonus: a thread of the Shakespearean runs through the case.

Mr. Golb’s father is Norman Golb, a professor at the University of Chicago and a critic of claims that the Dead Sea Scrolls were the work of a sect called the Essenes, thought to have lived near the Qumran caves where the scrolls were found. Professor Golb has suggested that the scrolls were actually the product of several libraries in Jerusalem and were taken to the caves around the time the city fell to the Romans in the year 70. This is not a dispute for the fainthearted. Golb the Son has taken up his father’s cause with all the vigor permitted by multiple Gmail accounts.

When he was arrested, Mr. Golb was asked by prosecutors if he wrote under the name “Charles Gadda,” one of the most visible Internet advocates for his father. He would not answer directly.

“They would say that my father is doing it or asking me to do it,” Mr. Golb said, according to court papers. “My father certainly never asked me to do anything of the kind.”

But he allowed that “Charles Gadda” was doing pretty well. “Do you realize that the Charles Gadda articles have been read by thousands of people?” Mr. Golb continued. “I know that, because I look at them, it says on them.”

The Internet is, of course, both gold mine and sludge pile, where people lie about their ages, their abilities, the world. The prosecutors say that by adopting all those false identities, Mr. Golb was trying to obtain a benefit, and so committed criminal impersonation, identity theft and aggravated harassment. But Mr. Golb’s lawyers maintain that there was no tangible benefit, and therefore no crime.

“Gaining an advantage in academic debate about the Dead Sea Scrolls is not the kind of benefit required by the law,” said Ronald Kuby, one of the defense lawyers.

But what about the injury Mr. Golb apparently tried to inflict on Lawrence H. Schiffman, the chairman of Judaic studies at N.Y.U.? Someone wrote from larry.schiffman@gmail.com to Professor Schiffman’s graduate students and dean, alerting them to an article that suggested he had committed plagiarism. Perhaps two things go without saying: The article was actually written under one of Raphael Golb’s pseudonyms, and Professor Schiffman has been critical of the theories of Golb père.

The defense claims that the e-mail messages were transparent parodies, and that in any event, injury to a reputation is a civil matter, not a criminal violation.

“He writes letters in my names in which I am admitting to horrendous offenses,” Professor Schiffman said Friday. “This is the rough-and-tumble of the Internet?”

That 1993 cartoon could use an update. On the Internet today, everybody knows you’re a dog.

Re: NFL Open Thread

djchefron — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:32:31 -0000

My Picks for this week
ATL over Wash
Chi over Arz
Bal over Cin
Hou over Ind
Jac over KC
NE over Mia
GB over TB
Car over NO Upset Special
Sea over Det
NYG over SD
Tenn over SF
Dall over Phi

Re: Sunday Open Thread

djchefron — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 10:01:45 -0000

And people wonder why religion is ridiculed.

Re: Afternoon Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:04:27 -0000

When 50 looks GOOD
http://www.deephousepage.com/forums/showthread....

Re: Saturday Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 22:29:19 -0000

First dont call me boy I am not your boy or someone who kisses your ass.Second I have been to the middle east and who am I to dictate how they want to live their lives.Third who the fuck do you think you are.You know whats best on how people should live.Women here in this country are treated as second class citizens.Gays have their civil rights voted down and you presumed to think whats bests for another culture.You need to get your head out your ass and look at the rot where you live at before you play Kipling and spread the western way of life.

Re: Saturday Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 22:13:43 -0000

Explain your logic when we bomb villages and a mother has to bury her child.Explain your logic when we use depleted uranium shells and the cancer rate goes up in Samaria.Look there are no saints we all are devils.

Re: Saturday Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 22:07:46 -0000

No I am not dismissing it at all.Like I said all you fuckers are crazy and your god is no more better than the other god.That's why I give peace and blessings to pasta.All hail the flying spaghetti monster.That is all

Re: Saturday Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 21:59:39 -0000

I said nothing about being isolationism.Remember RIF. If you do dirt mud will be thrown back at you.Read some history for a change and if you want a empire dont be surprised when the oppressed fight back.

Re: Saturday Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 21:55:01 -0000

delete.

Re: Saturday Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 21:09:43 -0000

1.They murdered the marines when we injected ourselves in the civil war in Lebanon after we gave the go ahead for the 51st state to invade and massacred over 2000 palestinians
2.When our policies according to the UN killed over a half million Iraqis WTF do you think people will do but to take the fight to your enemies.
Look all you fuckers are crazy who just want destruction because for some reason that makes you feel manly.I think 99% of us would just say can I just raise my children in peace and you warmongers leave us the fuck alone.

Re: Saturday Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 19:50:18 -0000

First of all the author is a neocon so for that reason alone he can kiss where the sun dont shine.But my main reason for my snark was where was his outrage when the good christian timothy mcveigh murdered over 260 americans.I search but nothing was there.Now you may believe we are in a holy war and every muslim needs to be rounded up and put into concentration camps because if Mr. dreazen had his way that's what exactly he would do.I dont have to address anything in that article because it is nothing more than religious and racial bigotry.And if you agree with anything in that trash he wrote then you are a religious bigot.Happy rapture o you and may what ever god you pray to may he have mercy on your soul.

Re: Afternoon Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 18:33:52 -0000

NEW POLL: Dems Who Oppose Public Option Bill Today Will Lose Obama Voters in 2010
by Stephanie Taylor
Share this on Twitter - NEW POLL: Dems Who Oppose Public Option Bill Today Will Lose Obama Voters in 2010 Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 12:42:47 PM PST
Hours before the wavering House Democrats decide whether to vote for health care reform with a public health insurance option, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee is releasing new poll results fresh out of Virgina.

Stephanie Taylor's diary :: :: We polled 800 Virginia Democrats and Independents who voted for Obama in 2008 but didn't turn out for Creigh Deeds in 2009. The main finding? A huge majority of these voters thought Deeds "wasn't progressive enough."

Not only that, but many will decide whether to vote in 2010 based on whether or not Democrats pass a public option, and specifically said they were less likely to vote for Deeds after he said he would "opt out" Virginia from the public option.

Democrats in Congress: Are you paying attention? Below are highlights from the poll. You can see more results here.

If you haven't yet joined the PCCC for cutting-edge progressive activism, please consider joining us here.

Creigh Deeds seen as "not progressive enough" by huge margin. 64% of Democratic Obama voters and 58% of Independent Obama voters said Deeds was "not progressive enough" compared to only 8% of Democrats and 16% of Independent Obama voters who said he was "too far to the left." (Overall, 5 to 1.)

Obama's voters want the public option. 88% of Democratic Obama voters and 80% of Independent Obama voters favor a public health insurance option to compete with private insurance plans. 93% of those polled said health care is "very" or "somewhat" important when they vote.

Creigh Deeds hurt by opposition to public option. When asked, "Before the election for Governor, Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds said he would side with conservatives and push for Virginia to 'opt out' of the public insurance plan. Did this make you more excited or less excited to vote in this year's election, or did it have no impact?" 41% of those polled said it made them less excited, only 6% said it made them more excited (7 to 1).

Without a public option, Obama voters will continue to drop off in 2010. 43% of Democratic and Independent Obama voters said they are less likely to vote at all in the 2010 general election if Congress does not pass a public option as part of health care reform, compared to only 8% who are more likely to vote. If they do vote, by 46% to 6%, they will be less likely to vote for a Democratic candidate if Democrats do not pass a public option.

Did this dropoff among Obama voters matter to Creigh Deeds? Absolutely. From Blue Virginia:

Last November, Barack Obama received 2.0 million votes and John McCain received 1.7 million votes. This November, Creigh Deeds received 0.8 million votes and Bob McDonnell received 1.2 million votes. Which means that Deeds "underperformed" Obama by 1.2 million votes, while McDonnell "underperformed" McCain by only 0.5 million votes. The difference between those two "underperformances": 700,000 votes, or more than twice the total that Creigh lost by.

Those of us who work on health care reform have been warning Democratic leaders for ages, and now we have proof.

If congressional Democrats want to win re-election in 2010, they need to support a strong public option. If they 'pull a Creigh Deeds' and oppose a public option--or run campaigns to the right of the electorate--Democrats and Independents who voted for President Obama in 2008 have shown they simply won't vote. And the results will be devastating for the Democrats.

Here are three things you can do right now with this information.

Recommend this diary so others see.
If you know anyone who works in Congress or the Democratic Party, forward this post to them today. Together, we can catapult this into the conventional wisdom and make sure Democrats act both more progressively and in their political self-interest.
If you haven't joined the Progressive Change Campaign Committee yet, join us today to be part of effective activism. We're over 250,000 strong, and growing.
UPDATE: Just learned that the dropoff numbers and analysis were actually from Lowell at Blue Virginia, NOT Rootswire. I fixed the link, and send big apologies to Lowell
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/11/7/801...

Re: Saturday Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:06:14 -0000

Higher taxes.In Denmark the people pays up to 48% of their income in return they get free healthcare,free higher educationpensions so when you get old you can live in dignity and have higher quality of life than we have here.But you right we are americans john wayne is our idol we dont need no stinkin help unless you rich then we will steal from the poor to subsidize their lifestyle.Like I said, as long as I got mine fuck you and the horse you rode in on.

Re: Saturday Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 16:31:03 -0000

So as long as you got yours, to hell with everyone else?

Re: Saturday Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 16:23:20 -0000

BULLSHIT!!! Show me where the bill takes money away from medicare and please dont post the link from AARP because they have endorsed the bill.

Re: Saturday Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 15:58:58 -0000

Whats the matter, your compadres cant read?I know that 10 page double space farce that the redumblicans produce is more your speed but adults are in charge so please sit down stick your thumb in your mouth and be quiet.Haven't you and your boys done enough damage to my country?

Re: Saturday Open Thread

djchefron — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 15:32:30 -0000

The dummycrats I mean you Bart Stupak that would restrict abortion unless you are rich should not get any funding for the next election even if they end up voting for it.How dare you inject your superstitious beliefs into something that Americans wants and American business needs.The reason your state has high unemployment and the auto industry is on life support is because of health care not abortion.