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Christian
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3 months ago
in Is the iPhone 3.0 SDK All That? on Investor in the Wilderness
Zach, your blog has lost its focus. It used to be some kind of TA blog with APPL thrown in as link bait. Now it seems you fancy yourself some sot of Apple geek (for awhile you were Apple Insider, but that didn't work out so well).
So, are you S&P TA, Apple fanboy, or your latest, "developer".
You may think of yourself as all three, but you're not. Your blog is not-- it can't be. Decide what your blog is and stick with it.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/17/apple-iphone-s...
Start with the App store, which is now packed with more than 25,000 applications. Now add the ability to sell subscriptions that regularly deliver fresh content, additional levels for games or new content, all announced Tuesday. Suddenly an iPhone app can be a digital bookstore, or a digital newspaper, or a game that doles out fresh content by the slice. More is more.
Another intriguing new twist: Apple will now let developers turn the iPhone into a control panel for practically any piece of electronics you can plug it into. That will allow users to, say, pair the phone with a set of speakers to turn the screen into a digital equalizer.
Another radical feature: the ability to automatically find and sync up wirelessly with software running on an iPhone or iPod touch. Suddenly, your kids will be able to compete to play a game in the back seat of the car. Or perform a complex duet with a pair of radical new digital instruments. The gizmo's Bluetooth wireless capability, standard on most smart phones, actually makes the thing a better gaming device.
So, are you S&P TA, Apple fanboy, or your latest, "developer".
You may think of yourself as all three, but you're not. Your blog is not-- it can't be. Decide what your blog is and stick with it.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/17/apple-iphone-s...
Start with the App store, which is now packed with more than 25,000 applications. Now add the ability to sell subscriptions that regularly deliver fresh content, additional levels for games or new content, all announced Tuesday. Suddenly an iPhone app can be a digital bookstore, or a digital newspaper, or a game that doles out fresh content by the slice. More is more.
Another intriguing new twist: Apple will now let developers turn the iPhone into a control panel for practically any piece of electronics you can plug it into. That will allow users to, say, pair the phone with a set of speakers to turn the screen into a digital equalizer.
Another radical feature: the ability to automatically find and sync up wirelessly with software running on an iPhone or iPod touch. Suddenly, your kids will be able to compete to play a game in the back seat of the car. Or perform a complex duet with a pair of radical new digital instruments. The gizmo's Bluetooth wireless capability, standard on most smart phones, actually makes the thing a better gaming device.
1 reply
Zach Bass
My blog can be about whatever I choose. If you read my bio above, you'll see I reserve the right to talk about whatever pleases me.
6 months ago
in Apple Leaves Macworld Limping on Investor in the Wilderness
ernie,
stick with the TA. AppleInsider you are not.
sorry dude, but it's true.
stick with the TA. AppleInsider you are not.
sorry dude, but it's true.
1 reply
Zach Bass
Christian, I appreciate your brutally honest assessment. Just so you know, these excerpts were copied directly from my email alerts, without any editing. And the alerts were being produced at near real-time, so the accounts of the event are obviously terse.
6 months ago
in Walmart’s got iPhone on Investor in the Wilderness
Zach,
You've left out that ATT is offering iPhones for $99 through the end of the year. Which may or may not indicate they're clearing channel prior to upgrades announced at Mac World (64GB anyone?)
Christian
You've left out that ATT is offering iPhones for $99 through the end of the year. Which may or may not indicate they're clearing channel prior to upgrades announced at Mac World (64GB anyone?)
Christian
1 reply
Zach Bass
Those are refurbished iPhones (8GB), so they have a limited supply. They only have black. Also, they're selling the 16GB, both black and white, for $199.
6 months ago
in Apple Has an Inside Day, Not a Good Thing on Investor in the Wilderness
Zach,
I like your blog and read it regularly. However, I've noticed over time that you're rarely right. Have you noticed that too?
I'm sure you know more than I do, and perhaps you keep your best stuff for yourself, but it's nevertheless true that you're wrong far more often than you're right. And when you are right it's often not for the reasons you previously stated. It's usually an occurrence of events that had nothing to do with your stated theory.
I know it's terrible to just leave a negative comment with nothing constructive. However, seeing as you have thousands of readers and having some experience with blogging myself, I'm sure you know that the people who come to piss on you are just as valuable as the ones who agree with you. I mean, hits are hits. As such, I'm very sure you don't let it get to you.
I'll keep reading-- mostly 'cuz you link bait with APPL and I read any scrap I can find on 'em-- so keep up the typing.
BTW, if the market is always right how do you explain the current state of affairs? I mean, it's VERY safe to say the market did not see the current situation coming, but rather reacted to it once it was upon us.
Moreover, there was NO WAY the market was looking forward 3-6 months back in May, June,July, to Nov. NO WAY AT ALL. You're just plain wrong about that. Maybe you can show me some fancy charts that show that back in June the market saw this whole mess coming, but I doubt it. Sure there were some canaries in this coal mine, but "the market"? No. You included.
In May you were absolutely NOT saying "come Nov. we'll see huge lows, major banks failing, 500,000 jobs lost in a month, the Dow off 40% and Apple at 85." You were NOT saying that.
I know 'cuz I read your blog.
I like your blog and read it regularly. However, I've noticed over time that you're rarely right. Have you noticed that too?
I'm sure you know more than I do, and perhaps you keep your best stuff for yourself, but it's nevertheless true that you're wrong far more often than you're right. And when you are right it's often not for the reasons you previously stated. It's usually an occurrence of events that had nothing to do with your stated theory.
I know it's terrible to just leave a negative comment with nothing constructive. However, seeing as you have thousands of readers and having some experience with blogging myself, I'm sure you know that the people who come to piss on you are just as valuable as the ones who agree with you. I mean, hits are hits. As such, I'm very sure you don't let it get to you.
I'll keep reading-- mostly 'cuz you link bait with APPL and I read any scrap I can find on 'em-- so keep up the typing.
BTW, if the market is always right how do you explain the current state of affairs? I mean, it's VERY safe to say the market did not see the current situation coming, but rather reacted to it once it was upon us.
Moreover, there was NO WAY the market was looking forward 3-6 months back in May, June,July, to Nov. NO WAY AT ALL. You're just plain wrong about that. Maybe you can show me some fancy charts that show that back in June the market saw this whole mess coming, but I doubt it. Sure there were some canaries in this coal mine, but "the market"? No. You included.
In May you were absolutely NOT saying "come Nov. we'll see huge lows, major banks failing, 500,000 jobs lost in a month, the Dow off 40% and Apple at 85." You were NOT saying that.
I know 'cuz I read your blog.
1 reply
Zach Bass
Hi Christian, excellent comments.
Doing Technical Analysis is like doing what a weatherman does. If you've noticed, a weatherman is never 100% correct either. It's like a weatherman, because you take the best information available, apply well known models, patterns and experience and you come up with a prediction that is predicated on probability. So it's not a matter of being 100% right or 100% wrong, it's a matter of degree. Just as in the weather, there are too many factors that influence the markets to predict with 100% accuracy, but it is possible to identify trends and probable outcomes to a fair degree of accuracy. Enough at least to make intelligent investment decisions.
As far as the market always being right and looking forward 3 to 6 months; If you were to look back in early september, I posted a series of articles warning that we were headed for a crash. One of them was entitled "Fasten Your Seatbelts, Put on Your Crash Helmets." At that time the market was giving clear signals that things were falling apart. Just as I suspect some time in mid to late 2009 the market will start to rally out of this bear, yet the economy probably won't turn for several months afterwards. One other big prediction that was spot on, was when I called an end to this bear rally back on Dec 11th. Other than that, most of the day to day stuff is like a weather vane, although I have to take exception, because I believe I've been better than 80% correct the past several months. If you could site specific examples, then I will address that.
And when I say that the market is always right, I'll have to admit that it's a form of rhetorical speech. But the fact of the matter is that the pricing of equities reflects supply and demand, as well as the sentiment of the mob of investors that make up the market. If an equity like AAPL falls to ridiculous lows, even though the fundamentals don't justify it, that's the supply demand equation at work. There's simply not enough buyers willing to pay the price, so that's why the price is what it is. Just like buying a house. You may think your house is worth $650K, but if no one buys it until you drop the price to $600K, then you've found what your house is really worth, regardless of the improvements you put into it.
Doing Technical Analysis is like doing what a weatherman does. If you've noticed, a weatherman is never 100% correct either. It's like a weatherman, because you take the best information available, apply well known models, patterns and experience and you come up with a prediction that is predicated on probability. So it's not a matter of being 100% right or 100% wrong, it's a matter of degree. Just as in the weather, there are too many factors that influence the markets to predict with 100% accuracy, but it is possible to identify trends and probable outcomes to a fair degree of accuracy. Enough at least to make intelligent investment decisions.
As far as the market always being right and looking forward 3 to 6 months; If you were to look back in early september, I posted a series of articles warning that we were headed for a crash. One of them was entitled "Fasten Your Seatbelts, Put on Your Crash Helmets." At that time the market was giving clear signals that things were falling apart. Just as I suspect some time in mid to late 2009 the market will start to rally out of this bear, yet the economy probably won't turn for several months afterwards. One other big prediction that was spot on, was when I called an end to this bear rally back on Dec 11th. Other than that, most of the day to day stuff is like a weather vane, although I have to take exception, because I believe I've been better than 80% correct the past several months. If you could site specific examples, then I will address that.
And when I say that the market is always right, I'll have to admit that it's a form of rhetorical speech. But the fact of the matter is that the pricing of equities reflects supply and demand, as well as the sentiment of the mob of investors that make up the market. If an equity like AAPL falls to ridiculous lows, even though the fundamentals don't justify it, that's the supply demand equation at work. There's simply not enough buyers willing to pay the price, so that's why the price is what it is. Just like buying a house. You may think your house is worth $650K, but if no one buys it until you drop the price to $600K, then you've found what your house is really worth, regardless of the improvements you put into it.
7 months ago
in Apple Investors are Dead, Long Live Investors on Investor in the Wilderness
Zach,
Have been absent for a while (in protest of you claiming Democrats would block the bailout as an election year tactic. Which you were wrong about and never copped to. Plus, I'm still not too thrilled that you always link bait by typing the letters "A-P-P-L" in your posts). Although you seem to know little about politics and rabidly engage in link baiting, I nevertheless enjoy reading your stuff.
Only read the first two paragraphs of this post and it sounds like you have given up. You've been wrong so many times now you're throwing up your hands and saying, "No one (meaning you) can figure this thing out! Forget it!"
Maybe we finally do have capitulation.
Have been absent for a while (in protest of you claiming Democrats would block the bailout as an election year tactic. Which you were wrong about and never copped to. Plus, I'm still not too thrilled that you always link bait by typing the letters "A-P-P-L" in your posts). Although you seem to know little about politics and rabidly engage in link baiting, I nevertheless enjoy reading your stuff.
Only read the first two paragraphs of this post and it sounds like you have given up. You've been wrong so many times now you're throwing up your hands and saying, "No one (meaning you) can figure this thing out! Forget it!"
Maybe we finally do have capitulation.
1 reply
Zach Bass
Christian, you are just full of complements. If you read on, you would have found that I believe there is a way for investors to find redemption.
9 months ago
in Apple Investors Take Heed in the Fate of RIM on Investor in the Wilderness
Zach,
Isn't it true that RIMM caters to the business market and is pretty well saturated there? I mean, it's going to be tough for them keep putting up those numbers every quarter. There are only so many yuppies and only so many drones. Apple on the other hand is no where near a saturation point on the iPhone.
Moreover, the main reason RIMM flopped is they're having to compete with Apple. Apple doesn't have that problem. Ain't nobody giving RIMM a $500 subsidy per phone that I'm aware of.
However, these points overlook the one big point you seem to be missing. RIMM is a mobile phone company. Apple, to this point, barley sees a nickel from the iPhone (sure that's about to change, maybe even this quarter), but the main driver of Apple growth and earnings is the Mac, isn't it? The Mac accounted for like 42% of Apple's pie last time 'round, right?
I'm not saying APPL is bullet proof-- far from it. I'm saying you connecting RIMM's results with Apple's is the same as you saying Dell or Nintindo are going to put up crap numbers 'cuz RIMM missed. You didn't.
Isn't it true that RIMM caters to the business market and is pretty well saturated there? I mean, it's going to be tough for them keep putting up those numbers every quarter. There are only so many yuppies and only so many drones. Apple on the other hand is no where near a saturation point on the iPhone.
Moreover, the main reason RIMM flopped is they're having to compete with Apple. Apple doesn't have that problem. Ain't nobody giving RIMM a $500 subsidy per phone that I'm aware of.
However, these points overlook the one big point you seem to be missing. RIMM is a mobile phone company. Apple, to this point, barley sees a nickel from the iPhone (sure that's about to change, maybe even this quarter), but the main driver of Apple growth and earnings is the Mac, isn't it? The Mac accounted for like 42% of Apple's pie last time 'round, right?
I'm not saying APPL is bullet proof-- far from it. I'm saying you connecting RIMM's results with Apple's is the same as you saying Dell or Nintindo are going to put up crap numbers 'cuz RIMM missed. You didn't.
1 reply
Thom
Apple definately has an advantage over Rimm in that it's a diversified consumer electronincs/software company so no single egg defines the basket on paper but let's face it; Apple is iPod/iPhone even if the #'s don't say it. The Street is screwy and even if Mac sales rocket, if iPod sales show further weakness and the iPhone #'s don't make up for it them it's gonna be ugly. But that's not really the concern. We know that iPhone numbers are pretty darn good. The issue is going to be forward outlook/margin numbers. Apple and Rimm are high multiple companies and they way you get to deserve a high multiple is by growth and if Apple's margins are contracting without massive sales numbers to offset it then the multiple must contract. And in this environment that contraction is brutal.
Another reason Rimm and Apple are better comparisons than say Dell or Nintendo is that both Apple and Rimm are status symbols, lifestyle brands. Dell is a Kia, Rimm is a Mercedes limo and Apple is the entire Mercedes line.
Truth be told I think Rimm will do better in the short term than Apple since a majority of Rimm's business is, business which has a tendency to keep purchasing product in a decline rather than the consumer. It can't keep up it's growth which will contract it's multiple but it will keep it's core audience just fine. Hopefully the iPhone can finally solve it's stability issues once and for all and really get it's teeth into Enterprise. My 3G, even after updates, keeps crashing and a friend who's a voice broker on Exotics trades is bugging out over the crashes of his. We all love it as a consumer product but it's still not as stable as a BB. C'mon Steve-O! I don't want to switch!!!
Another reason Rimm and Apple are better comparisons than say Dell or Nintendo is that both Apple and Rimm are status symbols, lifestyle brands. Dell is a Kia, Rimm is a Mercedes limo and Apple is the entire Mercedes line.
Truth be told I think Rimm will do better in the short term than Apple since a majority of Rimm's business is, business which has a tendency to keep purchasing product in a decline rather than the consumer. It can't keep up it's growth which will contract it's multiple but it will keep it's core audience just fine. Hopefully the iPhone can finally solve it's stability issues once and for all and really get it's teeth into Enterprise. My 3G, even after updates, keeps crashing and a friend who's a voice broker on Exotics trades is bugging out over the crashes of his. We all love it as a consumer product but it's still not as stable as a BB. C'mon Steve-O! I don't want to switch!!!
9 months ago
in Apple Investors Born in the USA Living Under Socialism on Investor in the Wilderness
Zach, I'm pretty disappointed with tis post— your political slant.
First off, "Democrats" is spelled with a capital "D". (Why not just go all in and call it the "democrat party" as Rush Limbaugh, et al do?)
Secondly, to indicate the "democrats" are so small as to bring down the American financial system and enjoy a total crash of the economy in order to win an election is flatly irresponsible and tantamount to calling them unpatriotic.
Moreover, I would like to indicate to you that the recent actions of the GOP may, in fact, be indicative of a group that puts party before country (I mean, which President has been putting us in debt up to our eye balls to the communists of China for the last eight years?)
Likewise I believe that it is wholly irresponsible to somehow raise your "valid" question regarding the "democrats" without posing the same "valid" question regarding the GOP. I mean isn't the whole point of your post "The Free market Is Dead"? Wouldn't a better, cynical question be, "In a year in which the GOP brand is so damaged, here's their chance to probe themselves free market supporters (by delaying action)?"
I've never really minded that you link bait your blog by always mentioning APPL, even when it's just in passing at the end of a post. And I've not really minded that your market analysis has been spotty at best these past months (yeah, you got the current melt-down right, but hey, it's not like you predicted the events of this week. You were just talking TA at the time-- three crows and all that), but I do mind this short sighted attempt to smear the "D"emocratic Party" for no reason whatsoever.
I mean, really which party controls the White House and has had control of the congress for seven of the last eight years? But not a peep about that. If you're going to talk politics in your blog, at least be smart enough to get it right.
Your former regular reader,
Christian
PS, when congress does pass legislation before going on recess are you going to admit you were wrong or will you just call them communists
First off, "Democrats" is spelled with a capital "D". (Why not just go all in and call it the "democrat party" as Rush Limbaugh, et al do?)
Secondly, to indicate the "democrats" are so small as to bring down the American financial system and enjoy a total crash of the economy in order to win an election is flatly irresponsible and tantamount to calling them unpatriotic.
Moreover, I would like to indicate to you that the recent actions of the GOP may, in fact, be indicative of a group that puts party before country (I mean, which President has been putting us in debt up to our eye balls to the communists of China for the last eight years?)
Likewise I believe that it is wholly irresponsible to somehow raise your "valid" question regarding the "democrats" without posing the same "valid" question regarding the GOP. I mean isn't the whole point of your post "The Free market Is Dead"? Wouldn't a better, cynical question be, "In a year in which the GOP brand is so damaged, here's their chance to probe themselves free market supporters (by delaying action)?"
I've never really minded that you link bait your blog by always mentioning APPL, even when it's just in passing at the end of a post. And I've not really minded that your market analysis has been spotty at best these past months (yeah, you got the current melt-down right, but hey, it's not like you predicted the events of this week. You were just talking TA at the time-- three crows and all that), but I do mind this short sighted attempt to smear the "D"emocratic Party" for no reason whatsoever.
I mean, really which party controls the White House and has had control of the congress for seven of the last eight years? But not a peep about that. If you're going to talk politics in your blog, at least be smart enough to get it right.
Your former regular reader,
Christian
PS, when congress does pass legislation before going on recess are you going to admit you were wrong or will you just call them communists
1 reply
Zach Bass
Hey, I'm an equal opportunity basher. I think both parties suck. It's the Bush administration that's taking over and nationalizing the markets, and it's the Dems that are trying to figure out how to run them. Just what I always wanted, the government controlling every aspect of free society.
