Disqus - Latest Comments for nic

Re: Social search and collaborative filtering

nic — Wed, 09 Aug 2006 11:13:38 -0000

I agree Peter - The long tail looks to be about 25-50% (or 20% from your post) and Anderson implies it will be larger. It was ever thus, though, with business books! Exaggeration sells copy.

Re: MySpace and Google deal - does this mean I could not have been more wrong?

nic — Tue, 15 Aug 2006 08:31:53 -0000

Thanks Fred - I'm going to have to concede that Myspace was worth the $580m.

Nic

Re: My thoughts on the Long Tail - part 1

nic — Tue, 05 Sep 2006 11:54:43 -0000

true jamescoops and there are many small businesses building these sorts of programmes. I guess my view has been that these companies are part of the long tail of software production (which I will come to in a later post) and as such not great VC plays. what do you think?

Re: My thoughts on the Long Tail part II - Long Tails everywhere?

nic — Fri, 08 Sep 2006 03:33:07 -0000

I think it applies to goods where DISTRIBUTION can be digital and low cost rather than the goods themselves.

E.g. we looked at a holiday rentals aggregator this year called Villarenters.com that aggregated the long tail of individually owned holiday homes. The Daily Mail Group ended up acquiring it.

Re: YouTube Revenues

nic — Tue, 12 Sep 2006 04:28:52 -0000

Viacom are definitely hungry for a web2.0 play - but I'm guessing they will only make one big acquisition and it could be Bebo, Facebook or others as well as YouTube. Maybe it is likely to be more of a community play than YouTube.

8-10x may be about right for Sequoia at $200m exit - they have invested just over $10m and could well have 50% of the company.

Re: Bubble watch - pre rev tech co plans $750m float

nic — Mon, 25 Sep 2006 04:39:30 -0000

Hi Marc,

Thanks for the comments.

My point here was not to slam XG but that this was a sign that the public markets might be starting to behave like they did in the last bubble. Which is scary.

That said, I am skeptical about XG - in my line of work you have to use some pretty crude filters to efficiently focus on finding good deals and this story was a little far fetched to merit more than the 15mins or so surfing I did ahead of writing this post. In my experience companies that claim to be this good and feel the need to do so publicly never seem to check out.

If you have some material you would like me to read please send it to nic@espritcp.com and I will happily eat my words if you change my mind.

Nic

Re: Video advertising

nic — Mon, 25 Sep 2006 04:43:30 -0000

Hi Andy,

I agree the most important question is how to drive videos to your site, but companies like YouTube have got that licked now. The next question is then the most appropriate model for monetisation, pre-roll, post-roll etc.

Islandoo is very cool - and I agree I think we will see more sites tightly focused around TV shows and other media.

Re: Web2.0 investment spiralling upwards

nic — Wed, 27 Sep 2006 11:24:35 -0000

Thanks Max. "Huge gains may well accrue to the winner in each category" - agreed - you need to be backing market leaders.

Re: MySpace ships more videos that YouTube

nic — Fri, 29 Sep 2006 10:40:46 -0000

Thanks Jamescoops - it looks like YouTube has seen that weakness in itself and is launching social network features at pace - see Pete's post on this over on Mashable.

http://mashable.com/2006/09/25/youtube-launches...

Re: One internet or two?

nic — Tue, 10 Oct 2006 05:15:58 -0000

Thanks for your comments people. As bandwidth and devices improve maybe whether it is mobile or fixed will be replaced as the most important distinction by something else - for example function - to take James's point.

Vance - to my mind country based domains give an indication of language that is critical to every user. Adding a further distinction of .mobi starts to make the picture very complicated. If I am directing a user to a site do I need to give him two addresses so he knows where to go if he is on mobile or on desktop? And then what if he is in France - will there be a .mobi.fr??

Re: Equity gap?

nic — Mon, 16 Oct 2006 13:13:02 -0000

Thanks Richard. Always good when the data comes out backing your gut feel.

Re: Microsoft going after the internet

nic — Tue, 24 Oct 2006 12:14:43 -0000

Thank you both for good comments. MSFT are stretching themselves into many areas and execution will be difficult. My feeling is that they will make at least some progress in search though.

mspoke - I would say to you that search can get much better still and MSFT will need to innovate much faster than Google to capture market share, but they will give it a good go. As I said they have come from behind in markets before. Also Google is starting to look pretty unfocused these days.

Re: Music downloads

nic — Thu, 26 Oct 2006 06:08:49 -0000

Thanks for the comments guys.

James - Good points. I just checked and digital music sales in H106 were just shy of $1bn so the music industry is clearly doing something right. You obviously know the music filesharing services well, but I believe Limewire is getting a lot of usage.

Alan - Use it or lose it might be a bit radical!!!

Nick - inclue looks interesting - neat idea, tough market though. California is a bit far afield for us here at Esprit, but good luck with the fundraising.

Re: HDTV - do people care?

nic — Thu, 26 Oct 2006 11:25:52 -0000

A lot of people say that Jon, but I'm really not sure. It's great when you have it, but you don't miss it when you don't, or not enough people miss it enough.

Re: Musings on low cost start-ups and the importance of customer service

nic — Mon, 13 Nov 2006 11:35:47 -0000

Thanks for the comment Simon.

I agree that most of the web2.0 companies are not innovative. I think the successful ones have been though. However, the innovations have been of the "I could have thought of that" type rather than clever algorithms, which is why there are so many clones. Thankfully scale matters and there is a real first mover advantage which make it possible for companies like MySpace to be winners.

I wonder if the innovation will start to move away from good ideas to good software/better algorithms. This would imply that the basic ideas have been had and that it will be about implementation going forward???

Re: Product investing and ‘because of’ rather than ‘with’

nic — Wed, 15 Nov 2006 16:03:45 -0000

Hi Simon,

I think you're right - the because rather than with dichotomy is not as stark as I had thought. In addition to your well made support point, at MySQL there are also professional license components to the revenue model.

The fourth element of monetisation (after ads, support and professional license) is subscription for premium services. Friends Reunited did that very successfully and we are about to close a web2.0 deal in a company that has significant subscription revenues.

Re: Product investing and ‘because of’ rather than ‘with’

nic — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 04:51:24 -0000

Introduction fees for ecommerce has already created big businesses - known as affiliate networks. We have an investment in the leading independent UK player - www.buy.at.

This revenue stream is very relevant to some types of web2.0 companies - www.crowdstorm.com and www.trustedplaces.com spring to mind in the UK - and we are exploring whether it can be made relevant for social networks.

Re: Internet TV - it’s the end of the world as we know it

nic — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 06:35:18 -0000

Thanks Mike. The guys at Blinkx I know, but Doovle is new to me.

Re: Internet TV - it’s the end of the world as we know it

nic — Fri, 17 Nov 2006 07:22:51 -0000

Hi Geraldine - I think the answer to all your questions is or will eventually be yes. Google is a media company (albeit a v.v.v.v. high growth one)

Re: Internet TV and the future of set top boxes

nic — Wed, 22 Nov 2006 12:43:22 -0000

Thanks Sam. Timing is everything. Too early is as bad as too late. One fear I have with this sector is that it goes the way of mobile games and too many start-ups get funded, effectively killing equity returns for everyone.

Re: Why internet TV will mean the end for channels

nic — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 02:48:34 -0000

Nick and Leafar - I think you are both right but for different segments of the market. Tech savvy/sophisticated viewers will predominantly use tools like inclue and others will use editors to make choices for them.

Being an editor is often an ego business - I wonder if we will see many more of them once all you have to do is get a website live???

Re: Our investment in WAYN

nic — Tue, 28 Nov 2006 11:19:58 -0000

Thanks for the comment. You are right that WAYN used to be a bit spammy, and that is no way to build a large and loyal following. They have made a number of changes to the sign in process to rectify this situation. I would be interested to hear if your experiences don't seem to have changed.

best,
Nic

Re: Mobile advertising getting overfunded???

nic — Tue, 28 Nov 2006 11:21:20 -0000

Good to hear from you James. That is very interesting as we have an affiliate network in the portfolio. Let's have a chat next time we meet up.

Re: More on the future of TV

nic — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:39:48 -0000

Thanks for the comments guys.

Scott - I'm seeing a lot of positive stuff from MTV - they might have the nouse to transition to a new type of aggregator

Tomo - I think you are right, to start with the web will be the fourth big network - but overtime I think it will (might) subsume the other three as all content is delivered via the web.

Re: Zero customer acquisition costs essential for investing in companies with traffic and no revenue model

nic — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 11:46:42 -0000

Thanks Val. Re the spam, I run Wordpress and need to sort something out for my spam problem as well. If you find anything let me know..

Thanks for the pointer to startup review, also to weaverluke.

5280Angel - I agree that not many companies will succeed in generating traffic with minimal cost, and that it is very hard to predict in advance which are the ones that will. Most VCs (including us, so far at least) are only investing in companies that have already cracked this problem. We pay up a bit for that privilege though. At the angel level this is more difficult.

Re: Comment spam

nic — Mon, 04 Dec 2006 12:41:56 -0000

I used this plugin because I hate it when you can't make out the letters you are supposed to copy.

This may make it too easy for the bots to copy, but I thought I would give it a go.

Re: BTVision and a look at how close we are to tomorrows webTV world

nic — Wed, 06 Dec 2006 03:48:30 -0000

I agree, the way BT are thinking about pricing doesn't bode well for the success of their service.

Apple might be an enabler for true IPTV happening sooner rather than later. I had lunch with someone yesterday who had just moved house and was considering buying a Mac Mini instead of a PVR.

Re: Google maturing

nic — Thu, 07 Dec 2006 03:12:11 -0000

Thanks Raphael. Greg's is an interesting blog.

Re: Big European exits

nic — Wed, 13 Dec 2006 02:30:36 -0000

Shantanu - thanks for the comment and yours is a good post. I will update mine to link to yours.

Alan - getting in early is always - if you call the market right.... The other thing about post 1998 deals is that they wouldn't have had enough time to exit before the bubble burst. That begs the question of where we are in the current cycle.

Re: What do we mean by television these days?

nic — Thu, 14 Dec 2006 06:18:30 -0000

Good point. PS3 and Xbox will accelerate this trend.

Re: Big European exits

nic — Thu, 14 Dec 2006 06:19:50 -0000

Thanks everyone. I will make a new post with a longer fuller list shortly. I might try and get the life sciences plays in their too.

Re: Techcrunch’ed’UK - it’s a shame

nic — Sat, 16 Dec 2006 05:49:19 -0000

I agree Raphael. The position of Techcrunch in the overall scheme of things isn't sustainable as the sector grows - it will become a bottleneck (if it isn't already). The TC impact on audience and Alexa ratings is a sign of that. Over time other equivalent channels should emerge.

Re: New theme

nic — Sun, 17 Dec 2006 03:42:34 -0000

Thanks James.

The header is one of two things that I want to change ASAP.

Re: The Venice Project - early thoughts

nic — Mon, 18 Dec 2006 07:59:11 -0000

Fred - I got a beta invite this morning (only applied online yesterday...) if I have the ability to invite others you will be the first to know.

Simon - I agree with you. TIOTI is the filter/aggregator piece I talked about, and the Venice Project doesn't seem to do that. It must be in their plans though.

Re: Reviews - how useful are they?

nic — Tue, 19 Dec 2006 13:54:30 -0000

Thanks for the comments guys.

Consumers becoming experts (and even defining who the experts are) is a great point.

Re: Widgets and business models

nic — Sat, 30 Dec 2006 05:43:43 -0000

Thanks Luke - a couple of thoughts:

1) In widget advertising is obviously possible but unless the whole point of the widget is advertising (a la Adsense) then my feeling is that there won't be enough real estate to fit in an ad, I guess rotation is a possibility though

2) The problem with the route MySpace is going and the Bebo widget deal is that they are walled garden approaches. They will work for a while (and there may be space to build a successful company in that time) but IMHO ultimately open will win - think AOL

Re: Browser compatibility problems - IE7 and IE6

nic — Tue, 02 Jan 2007 05:49:39 -0000

Thanks Raphael

Re: The next generation of social networks will have a purpose

nic — Tue, 09 Jan 2007 08:59:13 -0000

Ha - I'm from Gerrards Cross - small common lots of activity!

I kind of hoped people would guess roughly what a common is from the context.

Re: The next generation of social networks will have a purpose

nic — Tue, 09 Jan 2007 09:53:16 -0000

Thanks Phil. I am sure the big networks will introduce vertical elements. It is up to you and the other new entrants to innovate and be better. You have a head starte though - firstly these guys haven't got their core business model licked yet and second a pure play has the advantage of focus - it would be hard for MySpace to combine their music and consumer electronics a la Crowdstorm for example

Re: The next generation of social networks will have a purpose

nic — Tue, 09 Jan 2007 15:59:27 -0000

I agree that adding an offline component is very important. WAYN and Trusted Places do this well with parties.

Competition from forums is a good point. Social nets typically offer a better proposition by having a better site, but the forums could upgrade.

Re: TV and Video - Its the content and convenience that counts, not the quality

nic — Sat, 13 Jan 2007 06:51:38 -0000

Glad we are all in furious agreement here (but hope we are not self selected like minded people in the first place!)

The interesting thing about Euan's comment is that this issue can be the proverbial elephant in the room. At the beeb the notion that quality is not that important was "heresy" i.e. beyond discussion.

Re: New arrivals and uncertainty

nic — Mon, 15 Jan 2007 09:09:14 -0000

Thanks for the kind words guys. Mother and baby are both doing well, and last night we were only woken once. Long may that last!

Re: Broadband television - not as big as I had thought???

nic — Tue, 16 Jan 2007 05:23:11 -0000

Simon,

I agree that broadband TV will start in the long tail and by generating hits might move up towards the fat head, and in my view over time the cost advantages of open PC standards will bring all television to this platform.

You are also right that the TV production industry is ripe for disruption as costs fall and distribution gets turned on its head. I have posted before on the potential of video blogging companies, and also on the challenges in investing in them - ie how you get over the risk of them being hit based and all about one or two key individuals.

Re: TV channels on their way out - you heard it here first

nic — Sat, 20 Jan 2007 14:43:31 -0000

I think I agree with a lot of what you are saying. The big deal for me about traditional shows over new infrastructure is if the service provider changes - if I am right and channels are dying then there will be opportunities for new companies to take their place (and be profitable)

Re: Widgets - some straight talking

nic — Mon, 22 Jan 2007 08:10:35 -0000

Good point Simon. I could see myself paying a small amount for the MyBlogLog widget for example.

Re: TV channels on their way out - you heard it here first

nic — Mon, 22 Jan 2007 08:24:45 -0000

Thanks for the comments ming666 - these conversations are a large part of what I like about blogging. It is easy to get caught up in the echo chamber (although it is important to spend some time there as it is equally easy just to dismiss it).

I wrote last week that broadband TV might not be as big as I thought. My thoughts there were similar to your argument here about old media shows on new media.

On the other hand, if web distribution really opens up then you have to wonder what value Hollywood is going to add to films they don't bankroll through production.

If there is an interesting web play in distribution it starts with the long tail - maybe operating a bit like LuLu or borrowing some of the innovative models that are springing up in music

Re: Widgets - some straight talking

nic — Mon, 22 Jan 2007 10:14:55 -0000

Thanks Scott, and congrats on the Yahoo! deal.

The idea of "widget as data gatherer" is a good one.

Re: Indie labels to sell music on MySpace

nic — Tue, 23 Jan 2007 13:09:10 -0000

Hi Farhan - my guess is different from yours. I think a good (and growing) proportion of people looking for the long tail of music use myspace, or bebo etc.

Re: Indie labels to sell music on MySpace

nic — Tue, 23 Jan 2007 14:50:46 -0000

Good point mspoke. The analogy I make between music and film breaks down because of this.

Re: Now major labels are thinking about DRM free MP3 sales

nic — Wed, 24 Jan 2007 13:26:44 -0000

I agree. There is some interesting stuff I have been reading in what turns out to be the September issue of Wireed which talks about bands separating from labels and doing their own thing.

The majors are in a really tough place - the game is changing on them very quickly and they may not be nimble enough to deal with it. Look at EMI.

Re: Getting a consumer internet service to critical mass - some more thoughts

nic — Sun, 28 Jan 2007 10:07:21 -0000

Thanks To - personal connection is definitely important, and I should have mentioned it. The members of many successful sites feel strong associations with the community and aspire to have high status within it.

A common way of doing this is to have a people at the centre of the community that the members aspire to be like and meet.

Re: Internet re-organising around people

nic — Wed, 31 Jan 2007 04:49:09 -0000

Thanks guys. Some really great comments. I think I am going to copy yours into a full post mspoke.

Re: An awesome comment showing the power of online community

nic — Thu, 01 Feb 2007 05:15:28 -0000

Hi Alan - re internet peeps - there were thirteen speakers and thirteen different ideas!

You might say the internet is going up its own wazoo!

Re: The “del.icio.us Lesson” - personal value precedes network value

nic — Sat, 03 Feb 2007 03:46:28 -0000

Thanks John,

I agree - the big plays are ones where there is a network effect - as an investor my feeling is that to invest in those companies pre-critical mass (and simply waiting for critical mass is one option) you need to have a very clear understanding how they are going to get there.

Re: More on open versus closed or IPTV v broadband TV

nic — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 08:40:04 -0000

Thanks Paul, great comment.

I had assumed up to now that the aggregators for broadband TV will be vertically focused. Netvibes et al will have to expand their functionality significantly to get there.

To your questions - fully open aggregators - TIOTI is the most prominent in the UK.

Re models - I am expecting a range of ad funded, subscription and pay per view options. How rights get protected through all of this is a difficult and unanswered question.

Re: Mobile Search

nic — Wed, 07 Feb 2007 05:21:31 -0000

Some good points Ghazi.

Application based search is a walled garden approach that makes a lot of sense whilst we lack the tools to deal with the whole web.

Re: CPA advertising for mobile and video

nic — Fri, 16 Feb 2007 16:51:22 -0000

Hey Ivan,

Thanks for the comment. I'm sorry you haven't been told what will happen next after your buy.at sign up. We should fix that.

There is no payment or program for recruiting new affiliates because there is no shortage of people who come for free. If anything the problem is with too many affiliates and managing for quality.

Re: CPA advertising for mobile and video

nic — Sun, 18 Feb 2007 10:35:42 -0000

I agree with all these points. The market is still very early for mobile content and hence mobile advertising. However, I think the market has now developed to a point that the companies who will eventually win need to be formulating their strategies and starting to place some bets. I would even say that point has passed for mobile banner advertising.

Re: Lessons from Betfair about getting a consumer internet start-up to critical mass

nic — Mon, 19 Feb 2007 16:49:35 -0000

Thanks Nisan. Your guide is a good one - both as a blueprint for a service and as a guide to strategy.

Re: Chelsea - one down three to go??

nic — Mon, 26 Feb 2007 16:58:22 -0000

Hey hey. If winning stops being important...

Re: Uncertainty and the need to plan

nic — Thu, 01 Mar 2007 08:09:45 -0000

Thanks for the comments guys.

I agree with all your points - in particular that flexibility is critical. In most of my companies we set strategic targets pay part of the bonus quarterly for this reason.

I am more with Simon than Alan on the business planning process though. If done badly it can be unproductive, but done well it is a great way to learn and think about your business. I would be dead against throwing the plan away all together. Everyone should be able to tell you where they think they are going over the next year, even if they then change it.

Re: How many vertical search sites can there be?

nic — Sat, 03 Mar 2007 06:09:40 -0000

Good comments guys, thank you. I need to do some more thinking but I am coming to the view that distinguishing between what you might call specialised horizontal search areas (e.g. video, news) and search focused on industry verticals (e.g. travel, real estate) is important.

There is also more to say on driving traffic. If you don't have a brand you are always in a weak position - I could swap your travel search widget for someone else's in a heartbeat.

Re: Mobile - one internet today, but moving to two

nic — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 17:38:30 -0000

I agree Nicola. At the moment the operators are a drag on innovation, but the rise of alternative networks plus a dawning realisation that their current strategies are failing bode well for the future.

Re: Mobile - one internet today, but moving to two

nic — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 18:24:24 -0000

Thanks Ivan. As I say I don't think we are there yet either. I mention Bango and Shozu only as evidence that some of this stuff is starting to happen.

There are a number of reasons why everything happens more slowly on mobile, and your problem of high complexity caused by device proliferation is one of the biggies.

I'm not sure it wil take 15 years though.

Re: Mobile - one internet today, but moving to two

nic — Tue, 06 Mar 2007 09:56:15 -0000

mspoke - Bundled cellular data packages are on already here on some networks and on their way on others. Plus (and contrary to my predictions a couple of years ago) wi-fi/wimax coverage is looking like is will be a credible alternative in the not too distant future.

Simon - I have never been a believer in LBS, but the other areas will come. The regulatory nightmare you describe is real and will slow things down, but I doubt it will stop them. The trick here will be in predicting the timing.

Re: Brands building their own social nets - surely that is cart before horse?

nic — Tue, 06 Mar 2007 09:59:42 -0000

Hi Scott - I'm not so sure that even Apple could sustain a social network. Unless they worked really hard to keep adding content I'm not sure there would be enough there to keep people coming back. Nike's failure with Joga, the football focused social net is a good lesson.

I reckon they will give it a go though, so we will probably find out who is right!

Re: How many vertical search sites can there be?

nic — Wed, 07 Mar 2007 10:50:16 -0000

Hi Mike - thanks for the comment. My view is that to be a highly valuable (hundreds of millions of dollars) vertical search play you need to have people go to your site directly. Reading my post again I didn't make that very clear. You can, of course, have a great niche vertical search play and get your traffic via Google. All but the largest verticals will have to operate this way.

Re: Mobile - one internet today, but moving to two

nic — Tue, 13 Mar 2007 06:26:40 -0000

Thanks Elizabeth - you raise a good point that we should think carefully before assuming one number equals one person. It doesn't seem like a bad starting point to me though - most people keep their numbers for quite a long time these days. If they have multiple phones it is often precisely because they are managing multiple identiries.

Allowing people to port their ID to a new number sounds pretty important though.

Re: World of Warcraft spam

nic — Thu, 15 Mar 2007 10:18:28 -0000

Thanks guys. I have had a lot of spam for a while now though. This is just the first time I have had anything from World of Warcraft.

I might think about putting Adsense in soon though.

Re: Cluetrain part of the fabric

nic — Thu, 15 Mar 2007 17:29:27 -0000

Zeus is one of my portfolio companies so I am a little biased, but I think we have some great clients, decent revenues and a pretty clear business model.

Check out the website or give me a call at Esprit if you would like to know more.

Re: Old media v. new - Viacom goes toe to toe with Google

nic — Fri, 16 Mar 2007 07:18:49 -0000

Thanks Scott. I don't think there would be any real conflict if there was a fingerprinting company and YouTube look a like in the same portfolio.

The one would/should be a customer of the other, and as such they would be unlikely to engage in any public discussion that might cause problems.

Re: Bringing editorial standards to a community - FridayCities example

nic — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 12:48:21 -0000

Hi James - you are right - retaining the current feel will be their challenge as they scale.

Nic

Re: Second Life - grubby underbelly

nic — Sat, 31 Mar 2007 11:22:03 -0000

I share this vision of the future Nicola. It is already starting to happen via technology from a startup called 3B - www.3b.net.

Also I am told that you can walk directly off your profile page on Swedish social network PlayAhead into Second Life.

Re: I wouldn’t want to be an Apple exec right now….

nic — Mon, 16 Apr 2007 12:43:06 -0000

Thanks Neil. I suspect not many people use the MP3 players in their phones because of the reasons you mention. As you say, though, they seem to be getting their act together, with SonyEricsson in particular doing a good job.

Re: Identity - should be more about greed than fear

nic — Wed, 25 Apr 2007 10:51:45 -0000

Heh heh. I think there probably was 200 people there, and I wish some more people would do those start-ups. To do this well you need to change the current ad model on it's head though - advertising becomes centred round the user instead of centred around sites. So it is a big change, and unfortunately half measures won't work.

Re: Mixed online-offline etail models

nic — Mon, 07 May 2007 17:52:21 -0000

Thanks Joff. Great podcast, and you are right to mention CafePress - my European focus got the better of me in this respect!

Re the story of how Moo ended up with big name VC backers - that is all about having big ambition and a big market to go for. Richard certainly has that and Robin and Saul at TAG (the first investors) will have encouraged him in this respect.

Re: Second Life watch - outline of future apps visible through the SL fog

nic — Wed, 09 May 2007 10:59:28 -0000

Thanks for the comment Bret. We learn more out of disagreement than agreement.

I read your post, and I'm afraid we still disagree. You are right that big business has jumped on SL because of all the mainstream press it is getting, but that doesn't mean they won't find a use for it. I'm not expecting anything to happen quickly, but I'm convinced that SL (or something similar) will emerge as a platform on which other things are built.

Re: Special interest sites - another model for long tail internet TV

nic — Thu, 10 May 2007 04:59:34 -0000

Thanks guys, and good to hear from you mspoke.

There are lots of these smaller plays out there making the market happen.

Re: Explained: VC target returns

nic — Sat, 12 May 2007 11:51:19 -0000

HI Azeem - interesting data. I guess all I'm saying is that we target returns that would put us in the top 16% of US funds. Euro venture returns haven't been good up to this point (in fact last year rolling one year returns were better than in the US for the first time) so benchmarking against them wouldn't set the bar high enough.

Re: Strategy decay in the world of TV production

nic — Sun, 13 May 2007 14:32:43 -0000

Thanks Paul. In trying to keep this post simple I lost a lot of the subtleties of my argument, which is to say, I think there is still a place for shows like Lost and that they will make great money for their studios. This will become harder though, and the AVERAGE production cost will decrease. The cost reductions will (hopefully) be more about less special effects than lower quality, but we will see....

Re: Recruitment - a VC perspective

nic — Wed, 16 May 2007 06:57:54 -0000

Thanks guys.

Joao - the answer to your question depends in part on how mature the business is, but in general for the top couple of key hires the CEO usually asks for our thoughts and I think most of us like to be involved.

Re: Transparency in the venture capital process

nic — Thu, 17 May 2007 05:15:43 -0000

Over-hyping doesn't help anyone, but at the same time we have a duty as directors and investors to build value in our companies and marketing is an important part of that.

With regard to Zeus - we have been very open that the early years of the investment didn't go as we hoped. The last three years have been a different story though and the new management team have done a great job in turning the company around and making it something we can all be proud of. If you don't want to take my word for it have a look at the customer list or some of the PR.

Re: Facebook - a leading portal to the web but not the only one

nic — Thu, 31 May 2007 03:44:59 -0000

Thanks guys.

Simon - couldn't agree with you more, comms are definitely the most important app and they are where Facebook is strong. That is only one aspect of the web though. I am also wondering now how it will all scale - status updates on all my friends might be too much. A bit like the twitter problem.

Raphael - the question for companies such as U-Lik and Last.fm is the extent to which they start to live totally inside apps like Facebook. Do you think?

Re: Top mobile apps are extensions of web apps?

nic — Tue, 12 Jun 2007 06:00:42 -0000

Thanks guys.

I guess it isn't really an either/or situation, but it is likely to be heavily tilted in one direction or another and having this sort of perspective helps in assessing the likely success of technologies and companies.

And 5% of mobile apps being useful on a daily basis is a big step forward. For sure this is yet to go mass market, but if geeks are at 5% this year they will be more next and the hoardes will follow soon after.

Re: Jason Calacanis at the MMK07 conference - Mahalo Greenhouse announced

nic — Thu, 14 Jun 2007 05:20:28 -0000

That Alan, as you imply, is the million dollar question. The answer so far is that they will use human editors, and use the Mahalo Greenhouse idea to build a huge network of people to help.

A key point is that they are not trying to index the whole web. I suspect they will ignore any site that looks for half a second like it might be spam, and they will lose some decent sites that way. Time will tell whether they can make the balance work in a way that is compelling for the likes of you and me.

It is a bit different to Wikipedia because you can only edit their index if you are on their payroll.

Re: Jason Calacanis at the MMK07 conference - Mahalo Greenhouse announced

nic — Fri, 15 Jun 2007 11:18:23 -0000

Alan - with Sequoia investing I guess they are going for scale, not an early exit. Nothing else would move the needle for those guys.

You make an interesting point at the end though - until I read your post I would have thought that the top 10,000 searches was more than 25% of searches. Jason will need more coverage than that if he is to convince people to make Mahalo their first port of call.

Re: My presentation from NMK 07 last week

nic — Tue, 19 Jun 2007 05:41:51 -0000

Good idea James. Just done it.

Re: Facebook takes internet virality to the next level

nic — Wed, 20 Jun 2007 03:58:07 -0000

Thanks for the comments guys.

A couple of big analogies here! FB coming out somewhere between ebay and Google... Both arguments makes sense, I guess it a question of how far they go.

Re the S3 point - that is the answer on everyone's lips for the scalability problem. Andreessen makes the point that it can be expensive. I don't really know.

Raphael - good link - two thoughts - 1. this shows the power of distribution, and 2. I wonder if the 6m might come back down again almost as fast as it went up - and how many servers that would leave them with

Re: The end of podcasting hype and the power of language

nic — Wed, 20 Jun 2007 08:33:15 -0000

Well put Erik. You are bang on that audio is better for all things emotional and not just music.

Re: Coase’s law - craze for collaboration explained

nic — Wed, 20 Jun 2007 10:57:53 -0000

Thanks Alan. Wikinomics is definitely on the ra ra side. You've got to find a way to believe though, right?

Re: The end of podcasting hype and the power of language

nic — Wed, 20 Jun 2007 14:14:33 -0000

All of which leaves it as quite niche alan

Re: The end of podcasting hype and the power of language

nic — Thu, 21 Jun 2007 07:43:26 -0000

Dave - audio has it's place, no doubt about it. My only point was that the hype got ahead of that.

Re: Mobile internet is ten years behind the wired web

nic — Fri, 29 Jun 2007 05:26:45 -0000

That is a great question Farhan. My first instinct is that we will see some very big companies created but that they will get bought out before they get to the scale of Google. I say that because the opportunity in mobile is obvious to everyone so it is unlikely that people will make the mistake of allowing a competitor like Google to emerge.

That kind of assumes nothing will come out of left field though, and that is a dangerouse assumption. There is enough that is new and different about mobile that something truly revolutionary is possible.

Re: Another milestone for online advertising

nic — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 10:55:00 -0000

Couldn't agree more. Every business needs a website.

Re: Mobile internet is ten years behind the wired web

nic — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 10:57:35 -0000

This is a good point Alan. Mobile operators and handset vendors will both fear commoditisation if the systems go open which makes it hard to see a common OS emerging in the short to medium term.

Re: Tesco goes into real estate - now that is a BIG play

nic — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 16:42:36 -0000

Thanks for the comments guys.

Dom - the £50-200 that Tesco charge is MUCH less than 1% on an average house of say £250k. There is considerable money to be made and saved here.

Search Engine Cardiff - estate agents will either not react at all or they will learn to use the web better in order to maintain their position in the market. Either way the consumer wins - either by Tesco winning or estate agents upping their game.

Re: Tesco goes into real estate - now that is a BIG play

nic — Thu, 12 Jul 2007 06:53:28 -0000

Good point Phil. It will be quite a lot of hassle. I guess Tesco could have costed extras for the photos, floor plans, and property listings which would be easy for them in volume but painful for us as individuals.

The other stuff needs to be done yourself. I'm never sure how much effort the estate agent is putting in though.

Re: No clear alternative today to Facebook as a platform for friends

nic — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 05:29:11 -0000

Thanks for the comments guys. It is clear that the notion of "friends" is far too simplistic and we need better tools to manage it.

It is actually MSFT who I have seen demonstrate the best understanding of this issue. Shame they can't build a product we want to use.