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jgrillo

3 months ago

in PPP Poll: Deadlocked in Ohio -- Political Wire on Political Wire
He's screwed because he didn't ignore VA and MT. Think about it rationally...John McCain (look at it objectively) is a moderate Republican. The Demographics in VA and MT suit him perfectly. VA is a military state where all 4 services have bases---John McCain is a military man. Obama won't win in VA. CO, NM, and perhaps, perhaps MO are better options for him. MT won't go blue. The state is trending Democrat in recent years, but please keep in mind not Liberal Democrats. Obama is trying to run as a moderate and trying to pick off Republican or Republican leaning votes from McCain.

OH his is best chance. But rest assured if he plays his cards right he'll win CO, NM, MO, and OH....In hindsight the Denver convention was a brilliant move by whoever planned it. He is going to get a Colorado-bump out of that convention.
2 replies
Dave_in_Gainesville John McKeating is not running as a moderate Republican.
NCYvonne I disagree. He has a much better chance winning VA than OH. Here's why: (1) VA has a 20% black population, compared to 12% in OH. (

2) The white population in VA is increasing becoming more affluent and educated--the kind of voters Obama does well with. It is also becoming more anti-war.

(3) More than 200K new voters have registered to vote in VA since January. 64% of them are under 35. That's Obama's sweet spot!

(4) Mark Warner has some long coattails and they will pull him across the finish line with 51%.

If Obama had listened to folks like you, he would have lost the primary because you would have told him "don't waste your time in ID, UT, NE, KS. Focus on CA, NJ, MA where the big delegate hauls are." That's the conventional wisdom. Thank goodness he didn't take it because he net more delegates out of ID and UT each than Hillary did out of NJ.

You don't win by taking a narrower path, especially when you have the resources to play the field.

3 months ago

in McCain and the Cross -- Political Wire on Political Wire
Taegan...you are reaching here. When I was in the Military in the early 90's, John McCain was a speaker at one of enlisted academies (I was an instructor). He told that same story and some other pretty gruesome stuff that I won't mention. I doubt very seriously he would lift a story of that nature when there are 1,000's of other stories from his POW experiences just as heartfelt as that.

I am quite surprised you use this forum in this nature---polls, wikipedia, etc, etc, when there are a host of issues out there from energy to the war we could be talking about. It's wasted time and I think you should reconsider the information that is presented here.
3 replies
pisher Well jgrillo, nobody's making you hang around here and talk nonstop about your military experience--in the airforce--in the 90's.

;)
Roehl Rule of thumb: the supporters of the guy getting hit ALWAYS want to talk about something else. Republicans are especially good at this "kill the messenger" routine.

You've been here long enough, jgrillo. If you're still "quite surprised," then you really haven't been reading PW.
show all 3 replies

3 months ago

in On Libertarians -- Political Wire on Political Wire
That's just the problem, the Libertarian Party might be better off without nutcases like Bob Barr and Ron Paul...the libertarian platform so to speak is not in outer-space, but the candidates in the last several years have been.
1 reply
graniteguy Ron Paul is not a nut job just because Fox News says he is. He happens to be the only true republican and true federalists, unless you call protecting our constitution, our military, and our overall free way of life nuts. I think maybe you should do a little research and find out out who is fighting the real fight cause it ain't Karl Rove, Dick Chenney, and Sean Hannity.

3 months ago

in PPP Poll: Deadlocked in Ohio -- Political Wire on Political Wire
No, I disagree. It's the 49 state strategy that's making OH difficult for him. He's got to win OH...I agree CO should be a battleground but he has to take OH very, very seriously. He's going to throw the election away by trying to win the West. He's making a huge mistake. Remember, what I keep saying, this race is about patience. You're reading an August poll that doesn't mean jack right now.
1 reply
NCYvonne He *is* taking Ohio seriously! He has twice the number of campaign offices and staff there that Kerry had. It's second only in expenditure to FL. Just because he's playing in the west doesn't mean he's not working like crazy in OH.

Suppose he does as you suggest--ignore VA, CO, MT (where he's either leading or tied) and banks everything on OH. Then he, like Gore and Kerry, lose OH. Then what? He's fucked because there's no way he can make up the difference.

He knows he can't count on OH and since has the money and the resources to play hard in several states, he'd be a fool not to.

3 months ago

in Many Will Still Cast Vote for Clinton -- Political Wire on Political Wire
Again, what does being White have to do with it? Do you always answer every stupid question with a stupid answer?
1 reply
just me Because your next post would imply that only black folks or democrats would vote for Obama. Trying to save your sad little mind from finding more excuses why someone wouldn't be voting for "Cuntry First" McCain

3 months ago

in RMN Poll: McCain Edges Obama in Colorado -- Political Wire on Political Wire
McCain absolutely, absolutely cannot afford to lose this state...Like I said the road to victory is easier for Obama, but if McCain can hang onto CO, that is one square he has filled towards winning in Nov. I really think in CO Obama is ahead and will most likely garner an upset win in CO. I must say it was brilliant strategy on part of the Dems to hold their convention here...

3 months ago

in Many Will Still Cast Vote for Clinton -- Political Wire on Political Wire
What does your race and age have to do with voting for Obama? Is therre that "little sub-conscious part of you" that needs to prove to others you're not a racist? No need to answer my rhetorical questions.

I'm 46 and Italian and I will gladly cast my vote for McCain...say it enough times and you see how silly it sounds?
1 reply
just me Hey Grillo: Read the question that caused the response. It asked: "Is there an Obamite out there older than 30?" SOMETIMES -except when you post - the threads refer to one another. No wonder you are voting for McCain. You don't think.

3 months ago

in Quote of the Day -- Political Wire on Political Wire
I can agree with you there...in my opinion he is not a bully nor an intimidator (sorry Dale Earnhardt fans), but I won't argue against his incompetence.

3 months ago

in Quote of the Day -- Political Wire on Political Wire
Lida...you are incorrect on the INTEL (even from the UN inspectors leading up to the war). The UN resolutions stood up until the day of the invasion. If the UN weapons inspectors formally concluded there were no WMD's in place prior to the war, then why did the UN demand access to facilities and documents and that the UN inspectors be allowed back into Iraq if there weren't any?

3 months ago

in Quote of the Day -- Political Wire on Political Wire
The hypocrisy then just doesn't lie with Bush...all those references you mentioned were also supported by Democratic Presidents as well.
1 reply
Wynstone I would say you are right to a certain extent. I guess I was making a larger point than the original comment. Bush's problem in my view is not so much hypocrisy as incompetence. As far as support for dictatorships, I think Nixon, Reagan and Bush 41 loom larger in terms of complicity than their Democrat counterparts.

3 months ago

in Quote of the Day -- Political Wire on Political Wire
I know the barrage is going to come so let me ask this? Is it bullying or intimidation to ask Saddam comply with UN Resolutions?
1 reply
Lida It is obvious a waste of time responding to you, because you lack a ton of facts...you don't seem to remember that the UN inspectors told the US that Iraq HAD ON WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION...there is document after document that proves the BUSH ADMINISTRATION LIED TO AMERICA, because they knew there was none there and Iraq was not involved in 9/11...nothing like turning Iraq into their cheap gas station...oops, that didn't work, or maybe it did. Bush and all his cronies are oil men, right? They're making a bundle, right? Looks like this debacle worked for them...I guess, bulling and intimidation is profitable.

3 months ago

in Quote of the Day -- Political Wire on Political Wire
are you suggesting poor, little Saddam was bullied and intimidated by the Evil Bush? A prevailing argument in the Liberal world for some years now is that we are the bad guys...we push poor, little countries around--all the problems in the world today are the result of the big, bad USA. While one can make the argument going into Iraq was a mistake, I didn't see any bullying upon Mr. Bush's part.
2 replies
Wynstone I would say where the hypocrisy lies is in our support of cruel dictatorships as long as we benefit. Such as Marcos in the Phillipines, Noriega in Panama, Pinochet in Chile, the Shah in Iran, and Saddam in Iraq. We didn't have a problem with him gassing the Kurds as long as he was a thorn in the side of Iran. Ross Perot brought up in the debates with Bush 41 how we had given sanction to the invasion of Kuwait, but then decided to use it to destabilize Saddam's power base.
jgrillo I know the barrage is going to come so let me ask this? Is it bullying or intimidation to ask Saddam comply with UN Resolutions?

3 months ago

in Many Will Still Cast Vote for Clinton -- Political Wire on Political Wire
That's not how I read it. You were looking at it in terms of winning and losing. I don't know about you, but I just saw a primary that has proven an African-American, Women, and even a Mormon can be elected President...doesn't matter if they won or lost the primary.

As a Republican I never been fond of the Clintons and I am still not so...Hillary ran an awful campaign...but she is one tough women...she would kick you in the balls to get my vote and that is not a bad person to have defending our national security.
1 reply
braidy See, I would say that kicking people in the balls is an absolutely terrible attribute for someone in charge of national security.

And if a woman, an african-american, even a mormon can run for president, but never ever wins, I think it does matter, as long as there are people who vote against them for those very reasons.

3 months ago

in Many Will Still Cast Vote for Clinton -- Political Wire on Political Wire
We should all be proud because Obama won? What if he lost? I guess in your eyes we shouldn't be proud then. If an African-American and/or women can run for the highest office and be judged by their merits and not the color of their skin or gender then we should be proud.
2 replies
Hunt Just me, exactly my point.

jgrillo, if you clearly understood what I was saying..."This is America's night. We should all be proud of what America has accomplished -- whether you support his candidacy or not." That's what I said. Meaning: America judged him by his merits, not his skin color. That's a win for ALL of us...not just Barack.
just me That's why we are proud. He WAS judged on his merits and NOT on the color of his skin.

3 months ago

in Many Will Still Cast Vote for Clinton -- Political Wire on Political Wire
It was a mistake to let her name be placed in nomination...I think many Obama supporters realize this. You would have to be naive to believe she is 100% throwing her support behind Obama and not trying to set herself up in 2012.
2 replies
vshawnt I disagree.

Many people have spent the last 8 years deriding the Bush/Cheney idea & expression of strength, yet, in the responses to Obama I can see that many of us have absorbed this as their idea of what it means to be strong. Bush/Cheney are weak, little men because they can't let an opportunity pass to demonstrate just how strong, bull-headed, and uncompromising they are. This is not strength, it's ignorance.

Obama supporters shouldn't embrace the ignorant form of strength. Often, strength is more subtle, and - especially in politics - sometimes gives the impression of weakness. Don't mistake his smart moves for weakness.

Obama knows not to give the Clinton's (or their most passionate supporters) an excuse to become belligerent. He is focusing on fighting the Republicans, and doesn't need a challenge from within his own party. He is appeasing them at the convention, but that will gain him votes, even if it's uncomfortable. This is their last opportunity to take the spotlight and he's giving it to them in exchange for insuring that from September on, it's his party.

Besides, many presidential candidates have had their names placed in nomination over the years (including most of the conventions over the past 30 years) that have had far less support and success in the primaries. Clinton is the first female candidate to seriously challenge for the nomination...she deserves to have that accomplishment recognized officially (and I've been an Obama supporter from the beginning).
Political Junkie Two days of the convention will be dominated by Clintons... Tues and Wed. And a roll call will eat up time as many states will vote for Hillary outright. Unless she's going to be Obama's running mate, this is a big mistake.

3 months ago

in The 49 State Strategy? -- Political Wire on Political Wire
This is a horrible strategy and the part of Obama---I have cautioned against him spreading himself too thin. Like I said, this election is easily winnable...pick off CO and OH and the game's over. The guy thinks he's Ronald Reagan and McCain is Walter Mondale...let him continue to run this type of strategy...I am sure the McCain folks are giddy over this.

I have stated McCain is going to need a lot of luck to win and maybe this is the beginning of some of that luck starting to come through.

3 months ago

in Obama, McCain Will Appear at Faith Forum -- Political Wire on Political Wire
I'm one of the few who isn't a fan of Rick Warren...I read his book, I thought it too repetitious and failed to address some unanswered questions. Bottom line: it was a book of convenience in my opinion. I hate when pastors mix religion and politics, even the conservative ones like Dobson for example. This is no different as here we have a guy trying to play a political tightrope and referee (i.e. I am not a Republican or Democrat kind of guy). I do not consider Rick Warren an authority for asking personal questions in a public forum as some sort of representative of us all.

3 months ago

in Overseas Troops Backed Obama -- Political Wire on Political Wire
Pisher...I'll avoid the pissing match with you other to say I have very close friends in Iraq and elsewhere---my military ties are strong and there are many a day I miss the comraderie and the sense of focus on a mission.

Believe or not I do not discuss politics that much with my friends, but here's what I do know. There is a substantial majority of troops in Iraq who believe in the mission there and General David Petraeus' leadership...I am not going to tell you this translates to a McCain vote; just like Taegan should have not used his headline to imply a translation to an Obama vote. Mine is an educated guess...Believe Jake if you will, but I feel confident in my prediction.

As the years pass by and historians provide their input, Gen Petraeus will be noted for literally saving a country from a civil war and will go down as one of this country's greatest generals.

You know first you misread the headline wrong, then you insinuate the thread pertains to only troops in Iraq (which was incorrect), then you ask me all these sub-questions. You want to have an honest discussion with me...fine, otherwise I'll just let the emotional slide by.

3 months ago

in Overseas Troops Backed Obama -- Political Wire on Political Wire
Pisher...how many damn questions are you going to ask me? Next you'll be asking me if McCain will receive the majority of votes from E-4s and below stationed in the Anbar Province.

McCain will receive the majority of Active Duty votes so you can go back to sleep now and hope he receives the majority of some other group's vote.

3 months ago

in Overseas Troops Backed Obama -- Political Wire on Political Wire
OK whatever you say...believe what you want to believe if that makes you feel better.

Taegan you are slowly warping the minds of Obama supporters with your headlines :)

3 months ago

in Overseas Troops Backed Obama -- Political Wire on Political Wire
Pisher...no you are incorrect. The thread refers to "Overseas" troops. We have troops stationed all over the world.
2 replies
pisher Wow--then it's worse for McCain than I thought. :D
jgrillo Pisher...how many damn questions are you going to ask me? Next you'll be asking me if McCain will receive the majority of votes from E-4s and below stationed in the Anbar Province.

McCain will receive the majority of Active Duty votes so you can go back to sleep now and hope he receives the majority of some other group's vote.

3 months ago

in Overseas Troops Backed Obama -- Political Wire on Political Wire
I am saying McCain will receive the majority of votes from Active Duty personnel whether they be stationed in Iraq or Korea for example.
1 reply
pisher Do you think McCain will be the choice of the majority of U.S. troops stationed in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Because it sure does seem like an awful lot of them like Obama.

Where were your last few postings before you retired?

3 months ago

in Statistical Tie? -- Political Wire on Political Wire
This is going to be the last I say on this subject...your argument would carry some weight among a tracking poll for example but you fail to forget about instrument reliability and validity. This is why one cannot apply different treatment variables and arrive at your conclusion (scientifically). Your assumption on different methodologies is based only on sampling. Increases in probability? We are concerned with p. < .01 or p < .05. If these conditions are not met, then scientifically speaking results are based on chance...again...Vegas, 75%, hell even 89% are great odds, but still based on chance.

If differences existed between means we have 2 options: reject or fail to reject the null hypotheses at the significance (alpha) level of .05 or .01; however if reliability, validity are not achieved and/or we fail to factor intervening variables then none of this really matters anyway. Statistics is science, just like we treat a patient and closely monitor their intake of medication for example, we must closely monitor our variables with reliability, validity, and consistency.

3 months ago

in Statistical Tie? -- Political Wire on Political Wire
Teb...you've made your point clear and more eloquently than I...I admire your patience. If Anon doesn't understand now, he'll never understand.

3 months ago

in Statistical Tie? -- Political Wire on Political Wire
I too, am a Doctor and do this for a living...both in the real world and in the classroom. It all boils down to different methodologies and the 95% confidence level not being established.
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