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Don Dodge

4 weeks ago

in Personal note: A job change for yours truly on Mathew's comments
Congrats Mathew. I have always enjoyed your blog, and look forward to reading your new stuff.
BTW, I will be in Toronto November 12/13 for the Startup Empire Conference. It would be great t meet you in person.

Cheers,

Don Dodge
1 reply
mathewi's picture
mathewi Thanks, Don. Love to meet in person -- drop me a note at mathew (at) mathewingram.com

1 month ago

in Is Twitter the next Netscape? (Scripting News) on Scripting News
Twitter is more like Facebook. It has a social network aspect to it that makes it harder to switch to something else.

The browser analogy doesn't work for me. Maybe more like a Web 2.0 version of AOL Instant Messenger with a social network mashed in. Social networks are hard to switch. AOL IM is still used by millions of people just because of the friends list.

Twitter has a great future if they can get a revenue model going...or get acquired by someone who already has a complementary reveune model.

6 months ago

in My Vision For Social Media on A VC
Every human being has friends...and a social network. In any group or network there is one who is an extrovert and opinion leader, another bunch who contribute to the discussion, and the rest just listen and learn. I call this the 1% rule of social networks.

We see the same thing on this blog. Fred writes a thought piece, 10 or 20 of us comment on it, and thousands read it. Everyone benefits from the interaction. So, when Fred says "everyone posting their thoughts in any number of ways" my translation is that the opportunity is available to everyone to do so for free, but few will. It will follow the normal 1% rule or community pyramid of most other social activities.

I wrote a blog on this subject 2 years ago, and updated it today. See "Social Networks 1% Rule" http://dondodge.typepad.com/the_next_big_thing/...

Don Dodge
2 replies
Joe Lazarus's picture
Joe Lazarus Every time someone references that 1% rule, I think about a stat I heard that says that the average Netflix user has rated over 200 movies. Most sites are able to convince just 1% of the audience to share because they don't have the right incentives and privacy controls in place for contribution. In order for sharing to go mainstream, sites need to implement incentives that provide a direct, tangible benefit to the person contributing (ie. rate movies and you'll get better recommendations) or they need to offer more semi-private options to share with a limited group of contacts (eg. people like that their data isn't shared with the world on Facebook, but just an approved list of friends). Not everyone wants to share their lives with the world, but nearly everyone would be willing to share a lot more if either they had more control over who sees that information or if their experience is significantly improved as a result of sharing.
fredwilson's picture
fredwilson i read your post Don and you are right. we see ratios of that sort in all of our social media investments.

however, new tools like disqus and tumblr and twitter are making participating easier and easier.

so i think my goal of getting everyone to participate at some level is possible

9 months ago

in The most import thing to understand about new products and startups on Paul Buchheit
Paul, Great post! I think there are lots of elements to success. Timing and luck are pretty big factors. I have seen lots of great teams build amazing technology solutions that address huge markets...and still fail.

Timing, being too early or too late is a huge factor. We have all seen or experienced companies that burst onto the scene too early, before the market was ready. Those companies got crushed by "fast followers" who hit the market when it was ready. Likewise, great products that are clearly superior to the market leaders have failed because they were just too late. Brand image took over in the minds of the consumers and a better product didn't matter.

Luck is a key factor in almost any successful company. Folklore revises history and turns that luck into brilliant strategy and foresight. But in reality it was a huge dose of luck. However, the old cliche is true...the harder I work, the luckier I get.

Google had all the elements; great team, great technolgy, a ready market, good timing, and luck. Take out one of the elements and they would not have been as successful. Take out two or three of them and it ends up a failure.

Your point is a good one. Be humble, listen to customers, question your assumptions. Do this with a great team and focused on a big market and your chances of success are much higher.

11 months ago

in This whole Web 2.0 Office Suite meme is stupid on WinExtra Comments
Steve, Excellent post, very balanced. I agree it is silly to declare Web 2.0 Office suites as dead, but I think eWeek wrote that headline to grab attention, and perhaps as a balance to the many headlines that declare Microsoft is dead everytime Google announces anything.

It is important to remember that Google Apps are not free for business. they cost $50 per user per year. After 4 years they have paid $200...about what they would pay for Microsoft Office (in volume), so I don't see much in the way of cost savings.

Most businesses will stay with Microsoft Office because that is what all their employees, customers, partners, and suppliers use. Compatibility is important. Security and compliance laws tend to favor keeping applications in house too.

Microsoft's approach of "Software plus Services" gives customers the best of both worlds. That makes it a pretty easy and safe choice.
1 reply
StevenHodson's picture
StevenHodson Thanks for the good words Don - I appreciate them.

Myself I know Google Apps are not available for free to companies but I also know that more than few folks who have bitten that bullet are not happy at all. More than a few times I have seen come across Twitter complaints that the free version is acting better or being improved more (this of course could also be misinterpretation on the user side).

so not is all good in that land of Web 2.0 either.

1 year ago

in Newspaper software: pretty but dumb on Mathew's comments
Mathew, I think we agree more than we disagree. I am sticking with my RSS reader which is actually integrated into the new version of Microsoft Outlook. Most people will stay with their RSS reader of choice.

It is the newspapers and magazines that want these dedicated readers. They approached Microsoft to build it for them. It makes business sense for the newspapers to do this so they can extend their brand (look and feel) on the web, and advertising probably figures in there too.

So, Microsoft's customer in this case is the New York Times, Forbes, Seattle P-I, etc. and this is what the customer asked for.

1 year ago

in Google: Anti-trust case waiting to happen? on Mathew's comments
Mathew, Just curious...what do your traffic logs show? Mine showed 70% of referrals came from Google, which mirrors exactly what Skrenta found.

However, I just noticed that his link to WeBsideStory was from March of 2004...almost 3 years ago. A more recent press release from them says that Google accounts for 75% of referrals in the UK...more in line with what we are seeing. Here is the more recent link. http://www.websidestory.com/company/news-events...

In any case, there is a big difference between share of referral traffic versus market share of total searches. Either way Google is #1 so it is just academic.

Don Dodge

2 years ago

in MySpace — so popular no one goes there on Mathew's comments
Mathew, I love your Yogi Berra quote applied to MySpace..."its so popular no one goes there anymore." That is the problem with making huge long term investments in fad businesses...they may not stay popular long enough to earn back your investment.

Google paid $1.65B for YouTube...which will require generating $150M in profits every year FOREVER just to break even. That translates into about $500M in annula revenues to generate the required $150M in profits. Forever is a very long time.

Don Dodge

2 years ago

in Why does physical proximity matter? on Mathew's comments
Tech startups can be done anywhere, it is just that mofre of them are done in Silicon Valley than anywhere else. Like most things in life it is all about the poeple. Successful people attract other successful people who want to work with, or compete against the best.

If you think of insurance it is Hartford. If you think of automobiles it is Detroit. Movies = Hollywood, Country music = Nashville.

I wrote a blog today about why this happens. http://dondodge.typepad.com/the_next_big_thing/...

Don Dodge

2 years ago

in Only a moron listens to Mark Cuban on Mathew's comments
YouTube is not Napster. YouTube has substantial noninfringing use, Napster did not. YouTube has short clips of video, Napster had full length songs. Sampling is legal.

The record industry is a monopoly of 5 companies. TV and movies are made up of hundreds of independent producers. The record industry lost money every time a user downloaded a full length song. TV and movie people lose nothing a user views a short clip.

Content producers are making deals with YouTube...they didn't with Napster. we wanted to make a deal and become the iTunes of the time, but the RIAA wouldn't hear of it. We told them Gnutella and its derivatives would be unstoppable. They didn't believe us. Their loss.

Don Dodge

2 years ago

in The Facebook Overreach on kevinbriody.net
Kevin, Excellent post. Very insightful and right on target. I was going to blog this topic but you have covered it much better...so I will write a short blog and link here.



You deserve to be at the top of TechMeme for this story. Great job!



Don

2 years ago

in Going to school in Second Life on Mathew's comments
Mathew, I would be interested in hearing your comments on "Are Newspapers and Magazines Dying?" http://dondodge.typepad.com/the_next_big_thing/...

Editor & Publisher just published "Winning Online - A Manifesto" which coincided with my story on magazines. Interesting stuff. Here is the link to the "manifesto" http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/ar...

Don

2 years ago

in Memeorandum is a black box on Mathew's comments
Mathew, I have wondered the same thing. The algorithm certainly has logic, and does a good job of surfacing interesting content, but how it does it is a mystery.

Like you I have been on Memeorandum several times, and I never completely understand why...or why not. Here is a perfect example. A few days ago I posted an interview with Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist. http://dondodge.typepad.com/the_next_big_thing/...

He is a well known guy and craigslist is one of the most trafficked sites on the web. The interview never made it on Memeorandum. Today I posted an interview with Gabe Rivera of Memeorandum and it made it quickly. http://dondodge.typepad.com/the_next_big_thing/...

The difference? Links from A-List bloggers.

Actually, I think the Memeorandum algorithm recognizes both links in (from popular bloggers) and links out (to popular stories). You need one or the other to get noticed on Memeorandum. In reality that is a pretty good way to measure what people are interested in reading.

So, even though my interview with Craig Newmark was excellent, it didn't gain enough attention to get noticed. That is life.
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