Disqus - Latest Comments for alattlr

Re: Apple Investors are Shorts to Blame for this Mess?

macfan — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 07:02:50 -0000

Alattlr,
Well said. Cdo's themselves are not a bad thing and helped provide liquidity to the GSEs for years. The problem was that cdo's became soooo easy to get done and the fees they paid to wall street were very nice. As long as there was a steady supply of mortgage paper that could be securitized, cdo's could be issued. In steps the likes of Countrywide Mortgage. The mission...write mortgages. So now everybody and their busboy can buy a house. Prices are driven up, teaser rates reset and....wahlah...defaults and declines in home prices.

So sentiment is dealt a big blow. In steps guys like Zach to manipulate that sentiment at the expense of others.

Re: Apple Investors are Shorts to Blame for this Mess?

alattlr — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 00:09:19 -0000

Zach,
I vote for ALL of the "Candidate" scapegoats above for all the reasons you mentioned especially removing the uptick rule and no transparency or oversight with the Hedge Funds. The uptick rule was put in way back in 1938 after the crash of 1937 which no one remembers and only recently removed BECAUSE in my opinion the SEC could not enforce it with all the Hedge Funds violating it. The real MAIN PROBLEM is the almost $500 TRILLION yes TRILLION derivatives market of CDO's etc that are so convoluted that NO ONE really know who owns what anymore.
My hope is that Paulson has a plan to provide ONLY a market to allow unwinding these things and selling them off gradually at a fraction of their original value by the holders themselves so the taxpayer is not really on the hook for it all. This could take years, but it will allow the markets to continue and slowly become stable again. Some people will lose a lot (jobs, money, home, etc), and I just hope it is mostly the folks that KNEW they were doing it that lose the most. In the meantime we do NOT need tax increases or CAP Gains increases like the Democrats have promised in their platform and speeches.
Al

Re: Apple Investors Embrace the Pain, Feel the Gain

alattlr — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 09:28:11 -0000

If you don't sell your long position now you have not lost anything except time.
Apple WILL recover and will gain faster than the market.
The only uncertainty is WHEN. That's what it means to be a "LONG TERM Investor"
JMHO

Re: Apple Investors Today was the AIG Show

alattlr — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 08:05:58 -0000

Zach,

Just a note on some of the responses to your "morning Edit".
It seems to me that if you were always correct and accurate in market direction/timing that you would be the ONLY person ever to provide this information to the world! AND you could charge incredible sums for this information.
The day-trade short term folks looking for a quick buck will always complain if you are not spot on as they don't want to spend the time understanding the trends required for long term INVESTING in the market. JMHO

Re: Position Sizing, How Much Should I Invest?

alattlr — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 09:11:37 -0000

Zach,
I am just beginning to learn about options, so will consider your advice as I get a better understanding of it all.
Thanks,
Al

Re: Position Sizing, How Much Should I Invest?

alattlr — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 09:11:11 -0000

Zach,
I am just beginning to learn about options, so will consider your advice as Ii get some understanding of it all.
Thanks,
Al

Re: Position Sizing, How Much Should I Invest?

zach_bass — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 22:43:14 -0000

A simple strategy would be to sell half your shares and purchase options. I might buy deep in the money Calls with that. In that way you could control 3-4 times the number of shares. This would be somewhat risky, but if you expect the price to continue to rise, you will accelerate your profits with the added leverage.

The other possibility is to sell half your position and buy a multi-leg position using a Strangle. With a strangle you would make profit whether the price went up or down. Check my most recent blog post called the "I have No Idea Strategies".

And of course the most sensible strategy would be to sell half and use the proceeds to purchase a diversified set of index funds. I would dollar cost average into them.

Re: Position Sizing, How Much Should I Invest?

alattlr — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 10:04:07 -0000

Zach,

Good advice if you are entering the market.
Is there a similar "method" or technique to know when to EXIT a position?
Say you got into Apple long at around $85 and it has now doubled. How do you decide
when to take the profit, and if you do, how do you RE-ENTER the market with the same stock to try and capture future gains (which in the case of Apple seems highly probable in the next year)?
Forget the CAP Gains aspect for now since the investment might be in an IRA.

Re: Apple Investors, Extremely Low Volume, But That’s a Good Thing

alattlr — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 10:56:06 -0000

Zach,
Welcome back from vacation, I think AAPL will stay in a sideways trading range of +/- 2% for the next week or so until: a) there is more resolved on the "solution" for Freddy & Fannie & Lehman and
b) the rest of Wall Street gets back from vacation and the volume increases.
Right now it is a 50/50 call as to which way it is going in the next week.
I believe it will resume an steady upward trend as we get into Sept and approaching the Oct quarterly report. Maybe this link will help add more confusion to the situation (g)
<http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basic...>
Cheers,
Al