DISQUS

I think you are right on with that.

It depends on the quality of your developers, and how much time you want to spend dealing with customization. Web Forms is a big abstraction and is great when you want to just knock code out, but starts to fall short when you want complete control. When you want complete control, you could care less if you don't have 3rd party controls, because you are creating everything from the ground up anyway. All that abstraction just creates more hoops to jump through because you aren't taking advantage of anything it enables.

MVC is really for the teams that want entire control of their application's output, so you shouldn't use it unless you dislike having a lot of controls in there doing magic that you have no control over. If you are really planning on doing a lot of custom CSS / AJAX work and are very comfortable with the inner workings of the web, you might find the freedom MVC gives to be pretty liberating... but don't do it unless you plan on and enjoy thinking about details like the individual HTML tags that get generated and what their IDs are.

Microsoft's video story is going to remain WMV. Microsoft's delivery mechanism for youtubeish video is going to change from Windows Media Player to WPF/E.

The difference is that Microsoft actually provides value with their new products that so vastly exceeds the amount of value that Apple provides that they can come up with more than "start your photocopiers" to talk about.