Italy hasn't beaten France in normal or extra-time in a competitive match since 1978. That's 30 years!
they only beat france on penalties at the World cup 2006, then lost 3-0 at Stade de France and drew 0-0 in Italy for their European qualifiers.
If your prediction for a semi-final France-Italy is correct, France has more chance to score 1-0 than Italy. If it goes to penalties, then Italy has a bigger chance to win because of Buffon.