Disqus - Latest Comments for Winace

Re: Shorting the SPX

Winace — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 17:03:21 -0000

LOL, what do you mean by that?

Re: Shorting the SPX

Winace — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 16:56:04 -0000

I exited my SPY shorts, the percentage gains were getting kind of high. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. I am currently in a bind, I have not entered long yet, but the short is not played out either. I may just go long and short, adding to the losing position and exiting on resets of the SPX and SPY. If we rise to SPX 860, I'll re-enter short, if we establish a lower intra-day low on SPY, I'll go long. Or I may do both in between! This is gonna be what most traders refer to as a whipsaw!

Re: Current position and tomorrows outlook.

Winace — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 18:17:45 -0000

Heading out for a bit, SPX should be the leader in weakness now. (or laggard in strength)

Re: Current position and tomorrows outlook.

Winace — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 18:03:01 -0000

Exited DIA a few minutes ago (target triggered).

Re: Current position and tomorrows outlook.

Winace — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 16:31:40 -0000

You also.

Re: Current position and tomorrows outlook.

Winace — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 15:44:15 -0000

NASDAQ went neutral, good short exit...... should have a little more, until the rest neutralize, exit at a new daily low on QQQQ

Re: Charts

Winace — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 12:44:06 -0000

I will most likely be selling, AT MARKET, at the open! Imagine that, how
many people and books told you to never do that???
When you are playing alongside those who support the market, things rend to
fall in your favor. Right or wrong, there will be big demand for calls at
the open!

Re: Charts

Winace — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 12:40:05 -0000

OK, peeked my interest, I don't think I gave enough time for anyone to
follow me. What got you in long? What criteria?

Re: Charts

Winace — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 12:38:04 -0000

When I go long, I am expecting the ETF to turn up between the time I enter
and the lowest point I'll cover down to. I don't know, nor speculate, WHEN
it is coming, but I know it WILL come. Yes, I exit when reset. Also, someone
asked the question before, which I did not answer, I never enter a market
when neutral, and always exit at reset. At times, I will de-leverage a
position before reset, if the position becomes too large.

Re: Intra-Day Update: Much Ado About Nothing

Winace — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 23:53:24 -0000

TK was referring to me Jana ;-)

Re: Missed opportunities...

Winace — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 22:49:10 -0000

I went long into the close. I am currently long the Q's, looking to catch at
least 2% to the upside. Further we go down, the more I'll look to catch on
the bounce.

Re: Intra-day H&S

Winace — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 19:49:32 -0000

Correct.

Re: Intra-day H&S

Winace — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 17:43:31 -0000

"Are you now trading for larger returns?"
You mean by delaying entry?

Some accounts yes, others no. Depending on the commissions rates for the
accounts.

Re: The LONG LONG LONG time frame signals...

Winace — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 15:29:36 -0000

I entered at 42.79, added at 42.51, exited at 43.22.
I make money long on down days, short on up days typically (if intra-day).

For instance a 5% down move followed by a 2% up move, followed by another 5%
down move.
Both 5% down moves are speculative, you will guess trying to catch these.
The 2% counter-move is guaranteed.
XX% of any move will be countered. You do not know if that primary move will
be 3%, 5%, 10%, 15% or 20%. You have to be in the trade to catch the
guaranteed counter.

Re: The LONG LONG LONG time frame signals...

Winace — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 23:46:09 -0000

Channels on 20-40 year charts, also 10 year charts. Look at SPX 10 year,
trace the highs and drop a parallel.

Re: Target hit, all out

Winace — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 21:06:38 -0000

You can tailor your gains to what you like. Depends on your capital you want to allocate and the multiplier, etc. This trade was only bout 7%, becuase of my cautious approach as of late. Typically 5% to 40% can be done. If you want to do 100%, can be done too, but risk is higher with options expiration (need up front month to pull off the 100%)

You can actually make in excess of 2-300%, but, you need to wait for a deep extension before getting in. These types of plays come only a few times a year, and you have to have the coin free to play them. You hit them hard, you can go all year with 2-3 trades!

Re: In, long IWM, same song as yesterday......

Winace — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 19:32:18 -0000

Fun, but gets boring quick....

Re: In, long IWM, same song as yesterday......

Winace — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:58:14 -0000

no, that was just an example of the power of averaging down. You could, but
returns at early tiers would be nulified if the extension does not run deep
enough.

Re: Extensions

Winace — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 15:19:14 -0000

The conditional stop would need to be updated after each addition to the
trade, which would have to reflect the correct amount of contracts. TOS, and
all other brokers, do not allow OTO, OCO orders of closing transactions.
Even then, unless software is written, you would always be stuck with an
automated worst case exit scenario, leaving small gains on the table. I need
to get the software written take care of all these items.

Re: Extensions

Winace — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 02:53:03 -0000

Playing this via stock is the best way to go about it, but until you have
accumulated 1-2 million (for starters), you are stuck with dealing with
leveraged options.

Re: Extensions

Winace — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 02:51:02 -0000

In addition Dave, I just take the guaranteed move. I control how much I make
by what the markets attitude and intention is. You can control risk:reward
by many factors, ie. position size, delta of contracts, expiration of
contracts, multiplier of position entries, amount of entries, level of
de-leverage, etc. This market is still in the mode of being very punishing
to those caught off guard. The last week it has been really tame, just watch
what happens soon! I am currently taking the MOST risk adverse approach that
I can. This includes very deep ITM options, at least 1 month out, and
allowing for 20-22% market move, in one straight line! My returns are low
right now, typically 5-10% of utilized capital, a lot remains in cash to
back the trades. The important part, I take no losses. I'll take consistent
small gains any day over the choice of a large gain or blowing out an
account. I take what the market is willing to safely give. I find myself on
the same side as the MM's and big entities supporting the market, so when
they want to intervene, it works favorably for me. One example is gaps that
way overshoot reset points. Take pennies safely, they will hand out dollars
on occasion, until the market returns to a state of normality once again.

Re: Extensions

Winace — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 02:22:56 -0000

Yes. Once an ETF/Index resets, it is no longer obligated to move in the
counter direction. That is not saying it won't, but once there, anything
beyond is speculatory. If I am going to speculate, might as well trade like
sheep!
Very often, overall market correlation will point you to hold slightly
beyond reset. A flag for instance, each higher high resets a different
index/ETF. If I am watching all the major ETFs/Indices, I can manually exit
at a slightly higher point. I prefer not to be glued to the monitor though.

Re: Extensions

Winace — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 20:10:23 -0000

Exited

Re: Extensions

Winace — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 20:09:57 -0000

Out...

Re: Extensions

Winace — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 19:29:16 -0000

As far as I see it, SPY is neutral, it should rise a little with IWM, but
IWM should out-perform on the counter-move