Disqus - Latest Comments for Roehl

Re: Education is the Best Predictor -- Political Wire

Roehl — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 03:05:52 -0000

Referencing without comment may be the easiest way to explain something, but it's definitely not the most effective. I read your posts and you may have a valid point, but the writing comes off as smug to me.

If it's a waste of time, I would say don't bother trying to make the point. I'm just saying.

Re: Education is the Best Predictor -- Political Wire

Fri, 09 Jan 2009 02:49:39 -0000

The concept of an ecological inference problem is not an opinion, it is a fact. The most efficient way to explain it to people is via a market-driven mechanism like Wikipedia.

It's not good to say that people aren't deep thinkers when you don't even know them.

I can articulate my thoughts on Goodman regression, the method of bounds, etc., but that would be boring and a waste of my time.

Re: Education is the Best Predictor -- Political Wire

Roehl — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 02:35:20 -0000

Respectfully, you would do well to argue your case beyond linking to Wikipedia like some teenager pointing to his silk-screened slogan t-shirt and claiming we would be "shocked how much I think if you knew who I was." OK, who are you? How much do you know? Why are you keeping it a secret?

Can you adequately articulate your own opinion?

Re: Congress to Count the Votes -- Political Wire

Roehl — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 04:01:43 -0000

Can I put money on this at Intrade?

Re: Reid Pledges to Stay as Majority Leader Until 2015 -- Political Wire

Wed, 07 Jan 2009 18:08:53 -0000

Agreed. Had Hillary stayed in the Senate, I would have liked her for the job because the majority leader needs, amongst other things, an actual spine..something I've not yet been convinced that Senator Reid actually possesses.

Re: Reid Pledges to Stay as Majority Leader Until 2015 -- Political Wire

Roehl — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 15:28:23 -0000

"Leading" the Senate is such a suspect term when applied to Reid. Couldn't do anything about Lieberman, and may very well get steamrolled by the Burris appointment in the end.

Let's see, though, what he can do with 59 Democratic Senators in the next twelve months. I could be pleasantly surprised.

Re: Bennet Begins Campaign -- Political Wire

Roehl — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 16:29:28 -0000

It just keeps getting earlier.

Re: The Month Ahead -- Political Wire

Roehl — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 16:44:25 -0000

Not sure about amazing, because November 2008 rates pretty high. Perhaps one of the most important, though.

Of course, I'll always come here either way.

Re: Bigger Than Bush -- Political Wire

Roehl — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 07:11:12 -0000

Down from 58% in 2004, white participation down from 77% in 2004 to 74% in 2008.

There is no indication at all to suggest that we'll see those numbers rebound.

Re: Franken Prevails in Recount -- Political Wire

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/01/03/franken_prevails_in_recount.html — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 04:13:22 -0000

Coleman was strongly urging Franken to quit on Election night when he (Coleman) still had a lead. Not quite scorched earth, but definitely an attempt to get the press to look at it his way and call Franken a whiner. Instead, now we can (almost) call Franken a winner.

Re: Franken Prevails in Recount -- Political Wire

Roehl — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 03:05:51 -0000

By now, had Coleman been leading, Republicans would be screaming at Franken, bullying him into conceding for the good of the country, similar to how they forced Gore out of the race in 2000.

Where are the Democrats on this? They don't have to be disagreeable. Franken has maintained a consistent lead as of late, there are no indications that Franken's going to lose his lead, and there are more than enough indications to suggest that Coleman is playing scorched earth with the recount. Coleman's not bowing out without at least some pressure from the left (or a Supreme Court ruling, but the MN judicial system appears to run as slow as frozen maple syrup).

Re: Military Still Wary of Obama -- Political Wire

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/01/02/military_still_wary_of_obama.html — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 17:40:54 -0000

Too convenient? So if I say Zogby is more accurate does that mean I do not believe in all polls as you suggest? How can I believe a poll to be accurate but not believe in it? You are the one taking the side of convenience.

Acceptable research has nothing to do with me...you are not reading all my posts in this read. I am not saying this poll is a good poll or that conclusions can be drawn from this poll, I am saying is it acceptable because the limitations are clearly defined.

Your last paragraph is again another example of quoting me out of context. Read all my posts on this thread. When and where have I "jumped on this" as you suggest. It is a lack of courtesy of a message board to put words into one's mouth.

Re: Military Still Wary of Obama -- Political Wire

Roehl — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 17:34:50 -0000

That's too convenient, awfully close to deliberately cherry-picking the results you like without saying as much. I did notice that in that post you wanted to point out that Zogby's poll (which had McCain ahead) was more accurate than Gallup. Also very convenient.

I've never heard this "acceptable research" bit from you before; all I know is when it doesn't fit your worldview, I don't hear anything about "acceptable research." Then you insist that reality is different when you don't have the data to lean on.

Me, I don't care one way or the other about this particular survey. I just knew that people like you would jump on it like it was candy from a pinata.

Re: Military Still Wary of Obama -- Political Wire

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/01/02/military_still_wary_of_obama.html — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 17:05:22 -0000

Thanks for quoting me out of context Roehl...I was referring to the Gallup daily tracking poll. In this same thread you link, I make note of the accuracy of John Zogby's polls. Therefore, to insinuate I do not believe in all polls is misleading and again, quoting me out of context. Read it again if you have to.

Edited to add: I could have worded it better, such as "I don't believe in the Gallup tracking poll," but even with that said, one can clearly see thoroughout ALL my posts, I have mixed feelings about polls.

This poll I do not have a problem with...again, the pollsters make their limitations of research clear and allow the reader to draw their own conclusion. Some polls do not allow us to see the internals nor do some pollsters make their limitations known...it's these type of polls I have a problem with.

I am not saying this poll is good or accurate...all I am saying it is acceptable research...let the readers draw their own conclusions.

Re: Military Still Wary of Obama -- Political Wire

Roehl — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 16:51:45 -0000

"I don't believe in polls" - jgrillo (http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/02/ga...)

Re: Bush's Books -- Political Wire

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/12/28/bushs_books.html — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 17:27:19 -0000

Those ARE great books, though.

Re: Quote of the Day -- Political Wire

Roehl — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 16:24:10 -0000

Dick Cheney is a prime example of someone who is desperate to be an island entire of itself.

Problem is, it's impossible. And when one tries, they usually turn into a hot mess, like Three Mile Island hot mess.

Re: Quote of the Day -- Political Wire

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/12/28/quote_of_the_day.html — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 10:02:34 -0000

Someone needs to explain to the morons in the GOP that freedom is not the right to voice dissent to troops occupying your country. Freedom is not having troops there in the first place.

Re: Quote of the Day -- Political Wire

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/12/28/quote_of_the_day.html — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 09:49:17 -0000

Indeed, that false equivalency bullshit has worn thin. And you can already see the hate machine whirring up in preparation for Obama- just look at how the Blagojovich scandal has been "tied" to him... by virtue of Obama's being unable to prove a negative!

Re: Bush's Books -- Political Wire

Roehl — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 07:59:06 -0000

I was gonna go with the Mr. Men books, but you beat me to the general idea.

Re: Quote of the Day -- Political Wire

Roehl — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 07:56:47 -0000

This was the Bush administration's chief talking point to quash Iraqi dissent against the occupation. Whenever anyone talked about disapproval among Iraqis of American forces in their country, Bush or his people would always deflect the criticism, saying, "Isn't that what freedom is all about?" They never took on the merits of such dissent even once in the last five years.

I'm looking forward to a more intelligent discourse come January 20th.

Re: Most Admired -- Political Wire

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/12/26/most_admired.html — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 18:25:33 -0000

I guess Americans subtract points for being a literal loser, so McCain's biggest crime was losing the election. Plus, the Republican base never loved him.

Re: Most Admired -- Political Wire

Roehl — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 15:59:41 -0000

As reprehensible as McCain's general election campaign was, it's hard to imagine that Bush (5%) fared better than McCain (3%) in this poll.

Re: Coleman's Lead Now Single Digits -- Political Wire

Fri, 19 Dec 2008 21:35:57 -0000

Like I said, I fully support automatic recounts. IRV would, however, have probably eliminated the need for the Minnesota recount, with Barkley's votes falling pretty solidly in the Coleman column. And even if it hadn't, the winner would have a majority, not a plurality of votes.

I personally prefer IRV to Approval Voting, but that's a detail really. I would be happy with either. The current plurality-wins model of American elections is just plain broken.

Re: Coleman's Lead Now Single Digits -- Political Wire

Roehl — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 15:05:06 -0000

Even IRV has problems (in some cases, you can have the inane possibility of having a third-, fourth- or even fifth-ranked, and so on, candidate winning on runoff). Approval voting is much simpler than IRV and doesn't require ranking.

In any case, IRV wouldn't stop a recount like the one in Minnesota from happening. In any rational democracy with any voting system, an extremely close election requires a recount.