Disqus - Latest Comments for McLarty

Re: http://www.robertsinn.com/2011/05/17/what-is-hpq-really-worth/

McLarty — Tue, 17 May 2011 22:14:52 -0000

Good stuff. I did basically, the exact same calcs around 10AM today. Makes me wonder if CFAI is building an effecient market army, or a bunch of predictable traders creating an eventual arbitrage opportunity.

I'm writing the L2, in a couple of weeks. Good luck, to you sir.

Re: Things that Make me say WOW!

McLarty — Wed, 11 May 2011 08:31:18 -0000

Yah, I heard iShares was launching it, right after the homelayered nanotech
one.

But seriously...600,000 users on the3dstudio.com ...charging $5 for
kilobytes.

Re: Things that Make me say WOW!

McLarty — Wed, 11 May 2011 07:37:49 -0000

The price of 3D printers dropping like a stone.

http://www.investors.com/Ne...

You thought Redbull and laptops made it easy for web-startups. You haven't seen nothing yet.

Re: Why I nuked my Twitter account this morning

McLarty — Sun, 08 May 2011 17:39:59 -0000

Welcome back to the productive part of society. I left twitter for the exact same reasons. I think I joined, for similar reasons. I didn't qwitter, or even say 'adios', one day, I just stopped cold-turkey.

Twitter, Stocktwits = noise...but so is my blog.

If stocks are moving higher - people are buying stocks. If stocks are moving south - people are selling stocks. That about sums up the stocktwits feed.

Re: Behold! Deflationary Wave Is Upon Us

McLarty — Sun, 08 May 2011 17:21:02 -0000

Seriously man, how did we get here?

Re: Real Gains in a Fiat Based World

McLarty — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 14:18:09 -0000

Oh, and yes, it is true that the ETF has fees, but they are marginal
compared to the fees charged by mutual funds. Mutual funds are a scam, and
poison for long-run retirement planning. ETFs, in my opinion, charge a fair
fee.

Eg. For me to put $100K to work, in the 60 stocks in the TSX S&P 60
composite, I'd have to place 60 buy orders, and then a new buy order every
time a dividend is received from some of the stocks. Even if you assume
that dividends are once annually, that's still 120 trades per year. No way,
could I execute 120 trades for less than $150, the fee which would be
charged annually by the ETF company on $100K. With smaller amounts, it's
even worse. Okay, if you have half a million, or a million dollar
portfolio, you're probably better off buying the 60 stocks yourself.

Re: Real Gains in a Fiat Based World

McLarty — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 14:13:19 -0000

Aasim, how you doing buddy? How have you been?

I'm using proprietary models to support entry and exit points of options on
the index. This generates cash, while my client holds the ETF, and collects
the dividends. The chart included in this post, is the result of me using
profits from the derivatives trading, to continually accumulate more XIU.
Another way of putting it, is I've outperformed the TSX by the amount
required to buy about 9% more of the TSX. Alternatively, it's an
approximation for how much I've outperformed the index, by using
derivatives.

Re: Long-run? Devaluation or Growth « Step Away From the Fiat

McLarty — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 11:18:43 -0000

Driving out industry, is a short-run consequence to higher energy
costs. This is going to happen, sooner, or later (either for man/government
made reasons, or due to less supply). The 486 metaphor, is a wild
card. Could prove true 5 years from now, could prove true 15 years from
now. But, need to point out, that the dollars that are buying higher priced
electricity, aren't being detroyed. They are just circulating. Someobody is
always on the other side of the trade. Since we are exporting that economic
benefit, it's likely something we have to do, to be able to have the
capacity in our grid, when we need it down the line.

Now...the input/fuel costs for solar, wind and hydro don't rise with
inflation like the other commodities. And, they aren't subject to supply
issues.

Compare the "effective tax of the subsidized", that I explained above, to
continually buying higher, and higher priced fuel solutions...both
would impact industry negatively. However, the countries that wait
until market forces, force their hand, will be worse off, to make the switch
at the last minute. I think ontario will have, less volatility of
unemployment, because of it.

Ok, of course, if you say we have spare Hydro capacity, and it can be
generated and transmitted cheaper than solar, wind, nuclear - sure, I'm all
ears, we should use that. But when has a government ever gotten "straight
As"?

Re: The US Dollar is Drek…and getting Drekker!

McLarty — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 23:01:36 -0000

You should try it with a few of these...

http://www.mint.ca/store/pr...

A $20 Canadian silver coin, with $8 worth of silver in it.

Slow double blinks is what you'll get from NYC. Promise.

Re: 30 to 1

McLarty — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 08:39:57 -0000

Your quote inspired me, almost litterally the EXACT day, to finally execute on one of the hundreds of ideas I come up with.

So, thank-you, for that.

Re: Max Keiser, Eric Cantona, JP Morgan & Eurodollar Time Deposits « Leveraged Theta

McLarty — Fri, 19 Nov 2010 22:10:36 -0000

You'll need a futures trading account.

The contract I'm proposing using, is the one right here:

http://www.cmegroup.com/tra...

Notional value = $1M, symbol GE, but I'm beginning to think, this might not
have the impact I originally hypothesized in my post.

Re: Deflationists, I think you lost the debate « Leveraged Theta

McLarty — Fri, 12 Nov 2010 09:20:54 -0000

Yah, I know there has been previous nominal highs, higher for some of these
commodities.

But, it's them moving all in tandem that is bothering me. I realize the
stuff going on in agriculture, but I'm betting the moves wouldn't be nearly
as bad, if the dollar wasn't also collapsing.

This stuff going on, will be putting pressure on housing prices in the short
term, I think.

Re: Good News is Good News, Bad News is Good News « Leveraged Theta

McLarty — Mon, 08 Nov 2010 10:08:46 -0000

I wonder what other half comment replies have been lost in our discussions...

...sigh...crap...

Re: Good News is Good News, Bad News is Good News « Leveraged Theta

McLarty — Mon, 08 Nov 2010 10:07:49 -0000

Here's my original reply: salvaged from g-mail.

Bang on.

On that, I am looking at adding some single issue equity exposure,
against my short index positions.

Check out WDC. Only reason I looked at the stock, is because I'm
looking at getting some sort of Media Server...and I think they have
my winning vote, at a pretty good price.

A PE under 7, which looks like it's on its way to at least 10. They
got a ton of cash on hand, but using a market-cap-ex-cash PE is still
under 20.

Only downside, is likely short term, if they over-pay for some silly
acquisition.

Re: Good News is Good News, Bad News is Good News « Leveraged Theta

McLarty — Mon, 08 Nov 2010 10:06:01 -0000

WTF??? I replied using the e-mail feature, with a big long paragraph after "Bang on." about looking to put some risk on to hedge against my index shorts...

...I brought up WDC...and...blah...I guess it got erased or lost in the e-mail transmission to "discuss."

Re: Good News is Good News, Bad News is Good News « Leveraged Theta

McLarty — Sat, 06 Nov 2010 18:17:54 -0000

Bang on.

Re: Come Join me Up Here « Leveraged Theta

McLarty — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 08:18:22 -0000

Sigh...okay....you're right...like always. :)

I was really hoping, I actually found the marginal RE buyers.

So why is RE hitting new highs, in Toronto?

YTD Average price of a single family home, is 9% higher than the 12
month average for 2009.

(2007 = $376K, 2008=$379K, 2009 = $395K, YTD = $431K).

I don't get it.

I'd really like to buy more Real-Estate, cause every other leveraged
investment model won't hold up through volatility. But I can't
rationally make a good bullish pitch for RE. Yet, it keeps going up.

Re: Halloween Came 4 Days Late to Wall-Street: America, how do you sleep at night? « Leveraged Theta

McLarty — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 23:08:53 -0000

Hey...so, did you buy that farm yet? Sounding more and more like a good idea...

Re: Come Join me Up Here « Leveraged Theta

McLarty — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 08:07:59 -0000

So you don't think there would be any correlation, between number of
applicants, and the number of affluent applicants allowed in? I have
no idea...I'm just guessing.

That speculation aside, I think you're wrong about the existance of
quotas, or at least wrong on the numbers. Because in a report, for
2010, the "target" for 2011 is a range from 240K to 265K.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/englis...

Quota/Target...tomato/tamato...but a target, implies that they could
let in more. Don't know if they will or not.

In 2007 to 2009, all the years I checked, we had the same target range, but...

In 2009, we let 252K immigrants in. 42%, came to Ontario.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/englis...

In 2008, we let 247K in. 45% came to Ontario.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/englis...

In 2007, again we had the same range, but only let in 236K, 47% came to Ontario.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/englis...

Re: Two Scenarios. No Recovery. « Leveraged Theta

McLarty — Sun, 19 Sep 2010 23:26:31 -0000

So I'm asking, where does the money go? All the wealth, that sells bonds,
has to go into another vehicle. Are you really going to take what you used
to be saving in JGBs, and buy risk? Probably not. Could it possibly prop up
USTs, then?

Re: Two Scenarios. No Recovery. « Leveraged Theta

McLarty — Sun, 19 Sep 2010 20:25:43 -0000

Good stuff. Thanks.

Re: The American Dream Joe Fahmy

McLarty — Sun, 19 Sep 2010 19:55:43 -0000

Thanks.

Re: 10-Year JGB Yield Spikes 25bps (27%) in 12 Days (Japanese Bonds)

McLarty — Sun, 19 Sep 2010 09:57:42 -0000

Hey DV, How you been? I know it's been a while...the day job is killing me.

Do you have a view, on which way the Nikkei will swing on JGBs selling off? In a rational market, if the catalyst is a less credit-worthy government, I would think the N225 would sell off. But money flow, could prop it up.

IB currently only offers March 2011 FOPs and Sep 2011 FUT on JGBs...but the nikkei options go out to 2014. Wondering if we can play JGB yields by proxy....and just, expect volatility.

Re: Two Scenarios. No Recovery. « Leveraged Theta

McLarty — Sun, 19 Sep 2010 09:53:53 -0000

I can't figure out, if a crash in JGBs, would cause the Nikkei to
sky-rocket, stay flat, or crash too. I suppose it depends on the catalyst,
and how long it takes to play out.

There are 2014 options available on the Nikkei 225, through IB.

Re: Two Scenarios. No Recovery. « Leveraged Theta

McLarty — Sun, 19 Sep 2010 09:30:31 -0000

If it helps at all, some company named "GL Trade", licenses and provides the
data, to IB from the TSE. It's strange, I get an advertisement pop up in
IB, everytime I load the data.

They are owned by Sunguard, http://www.sungard.com/

It's the only advertisement, I ever see, in my IB trading platform.

Currently, there are March 2011 options available, and a September 2011
futures contract. That's as far as they go out, today. I haven't found any
info anywhere, on when new contracts get created.

On Sun, Sep 19, 2010 at 9:17 AM, Jeffrey McLarty